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[Document Improved Version]: Steps for

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 Steps for Conducting Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis using GIS and CRISIS Tools

By Dr. Naveed Ahmad
Earthquake Engineering Center, UET Peshawar, KP.
naveed.ahmad@uetpeshawar.edu.pk

Background
This document briefly describes various steps involved in conducting Probabilistic
Seismic Hazard Analysis using CRISIS software and GIS Tool for seismic microzonation.
The following steps are based on the case study PSHA analysis carried out for Punjab
province1 and can be similarly applied to other sites of interest.
STEPS

1. Definition of Study Area
Area of Responsibility: It is the area of interest for seismic hazard assessment and
microzonation. For this purpose, a reference GIS map is included that comprised the
interest site with respective administrative boundaries (e.g. national, provincial, district,
or uc level). In the present case, it is defined using the shape file of Pakistan in GIS and
from which Punjab was extracted.
Area of Influence: This is the area where any earthquake activity is assumed to influence
hazard in the area of responsibility, normally considered as area around the PSHA site
within 200km radius. In the present case, it is defined by taking 200 km area around
Punjab boundary. First, making a convex hull around the boundary: Vector<
geoprocessing tool <Convex hull(s), a buffer is made around the convex hull; buffer
distance is equal to 1.8, which is about 200 km: Vector<geoprocessing tool<Buffer.
Since, the available earthquake catalogue data is easily available for a rectangular area,
it is reasonable to simply consider rectangle around the area of responsibility, covering
the whole area of influence.

Area of responsibility/influence Area of influence consideration
Figure 1. Definition of area of responsibility, area of influence and simplified consideration


1
Dr. Naveed Ahmad (2016) “Earthquake Hazard Assessment”, Technical Report, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA),
Islamabad.
2. Sources used for Compilation of Earthquake Catalogue
This step involved the collection of earthquake catalogue data for processing and
development of recurrence models (G-R Model) and source input parameters for CRISIS.
The following international sources can be used to retrieve earthquake catalogue for
northern Pakistan:

• USGS (United States Geological Survey)
• ISC (International Seismological Center)
• Global CMT (Global Centroid Moment Tensor)
• NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center)
• NESPAK (National Engineering Source of Pakistan)
• Catalogue of Ambrasey and Douglas
• Catalogue of Ambrasey
• Catalogue of Quittmeyer and Jacob

Each source gives data in rectangular or circular shape, we adjusted the area of
influence within the rectangular shape using capture coordinates plugin in GIS. In the
present case, inputs for all the sources used are as follow,

S=26.07 N=35.3
Coordinates W=68.6 E=77

Date 1000-2015
Magnitude 4-9
Depth 0-1000 km
Type of Magnitude Any
*Source All
*The source option is available only in ISC Catalogue.

USGS: In present case, 1199 events from 1973 to 2015 were collected that reports in
Mw, Mb, Ms (Note: The earthquakes data in USGS for this area starts from 1973, early
data is not available). The output is downloaded in CSV format. Below is the link for
download.
(Link: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/ )

ISC: In present study, 2155 events are collected, which were then imported to Excel.
These events were from 1905 to 2015, which are reported in different type of
magnitudes like Ms, Mw, ML, Mb, Md… etc. Below is the link for download.
(Link: http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscbulletin/search/bulletin/ )

Global CMT: In the present case, 67 events are obtained from 1980 to 2015, which are
reported in three different types of magnitudes like Mw, Ms, and Mb. Below is the link
for download.
(Link: http://www.globalcmt.org/CMTsearch.html)

NGDC: In the present case, 6 events are obtained from 1905 to 2015, which are
reported in Mw, Ms, and ML. Below is the link for download.
(Link: https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/nndc/struts/form?t=101650&s=1&d=1 )

Catalogue of Ambrasey and Douglas (2004): This catalogue is about the Magnitude
Calibration of North Indian Earthquakes. About 13 significant from 1505 to 1973, were
obtained reported in Mw.

Catalogue of Ambrasey (2000): This catalogue is about the Reappraisal of North-Indian
earthquakes at the turn of 20th Century. About 16 earthquakes from 1901 to 1915 were
obtained, reported in MS.

Catalogue of Quittmeyer and Jacob (1979): This catalogue is about Historical and
Modern Seismicity of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Northwestern India and Southeastern Iran.
About 6 significant earthquakes were obtained from 1505 to 1956, reported in MS.

NESPAK Catalogue: This catalogue is for Pakistan as a whole, about 599 events were
extracted from the catalogue falling in the area of influence, reported in Mb, MS and
ML.

3. Preparation of Combined Catalogue
After collecting the data from all the sources, combined catalogue is prepared by
merging all the data in excel in the following shown format. In present case, the
combined catalogue consisted of 4061 earthquakes. The catalogue is sorted from oldest
to latest. Furthermore, the duplicate events that are reported by more than one source
are highlighted. It is ensured that duplicate events have the same year, month, day,
hours and minute, approximately of same location and magnitude.

Figure 2. Combined composite catalogue

The duplicate events are removed then, keeping only one source, depending on the
preference of the analyst. In the present case, the following preference according to
source as follows:

1. Catalogue of Ambrasey and Douglas (2004).
2. Ambrasey (2000)
3. Quittmeyer and Jacob (1979).
4. ISC (International Seismological Center.
5. Global CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor).
6. NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center).
7. USGS.
8. NESPAK.

The remaining events are then organized based on the type of magnitude.

Magnitude Type No. of events after removing the Duplicate events
Mw 261
Mb 2014
MS 64
ML 446
Total 2785

4. Homogenization of Catalogue
This process involved converting all earthquake events to single magnitude type,
moment magnitude is preferred. For this purpose, first regression analysis is carried out
on the duplicate events to correlate MS to Mw, Mb to Mw, ML to Mw and derive
conversion equations. In the present case, the relationships developed by Waseeem2
are used to convert magnitudes to Mw.

S. No. Relationship Type Conversion Relationship
1 Mw & MS ≤ 6.2 Mw = 0.535MS+2.69
2 Mw& MS > 6.2 Mw = 0.895MS + 0.53
3 Mw & Mb Mw = Mb + 0.103
4 Mw & ML Mw = 0.878ML+ 0.838

2 Waseem, M. (2016) “ PhD Thesis”, Italy.

Figure 3. Homogenized catalogue

5. De-Clustering of Catalogue
This process involved de-clustering of the earthquake catalogue data to remove the
foreshocks and aftershocks from the catalogue. Aftershocks and foreshocks are
temporally and spatially dependent on the main shocks, de-clustering is performed to
remove these dependent events from the catalogue. The method generally used is
Gardner and Kenopoff (1974) algorithm, which is available as a Matlab Code ZMAP.

Steps involved in de-clustering are as follows;
1. Download ZMAP from the link given below:
Link: http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/prod/software/zmap/index_EN

2. Convert the Catalogue into Z-MAP format in a text file.

ZMAP FORMAT:
Long. Lat. Year Month Day Mw Depth Hrs. Min.

3. Run ZMAP in MATLAB and load the catalogue as follows;
a) Data Import Filter > ASCII Columns separated by blanks or tabs > Import (Load
the catalogue ) > GO
b) ZTools > De-cluster the Catalogue > De-cluster using Gardener & Knopoff >
Choose Window Size and Select Gruenthal (pers.comm.) > GO
c) Again Choose Window Size and Select Gardener & Knopoff (1974) > GO

The map window displays the de-clustered catalogue containing the independent
events.

Figure 4. Format of the earthquake catalogue for ZMap

Figure 5. Total Homogenized catalogue

Figure 6. De-clustered catalogue
 The de-clustered catalogue is then divided into two categories (i.e. shallow and deep
earthquake) based on the depth: 1- Depth ≤ 50 Km (Shallow earthquakes), 2- Depth > 50
Km (Deep earthquakes), considered in the present case. The following figure shows the
final catalogue after de-clustering for both shallow and deep earthquakes.

Figure 7. De-clustered catalogue, both shallow and deep earthquakes

6. Completeness Analysis of Earthquake Catalogue
This process involved computing the time window for which the catalogue can be
considered as completed. The most common and simple method used for completeness
is Visual Cumulative Method proposed by Mulargia and Tinti (1985). It is a simple,
graphical procedure based on the observation that earthquakes follow a stationary
occurrence process. For a given magnitude class, the period of completeness is
considered to begin at the earliest time when the slope of the cumulative fitting curve
can be well approximated by a straight line.


 Completeness Analysis (Mw 4.00 - 4.50)

700
Cumulative No. of events 600
500
400

300
200
100
CP=1994
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year

Completeness Analysis (Mw 4.51-5.00)

400
Cumularve No. of events

350
300
250
200
150
100
50 CP=1976
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year

Completeness Analysis (Mw 5.00-5.50)

120
Cumulative No. of events

100
80
60
40 CP=1967
20
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year

 Completeness Analysis (Mw 5.50-6.00)
50

Cumulative No. of events

40

30

20

10

0 CP=1947
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year

Completeness Analysis (Mw 6.00-6.50)

25
Cumulative No. of events

20

15

10

0
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
Year

Completeness Analysis (Mw 6.50-7.00)

6
Cumulative No. of events

3
CP=1852
2

0
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970
Year



 Completeness Analysis (Mw 7.00-7.80)

8
Cumulative No. of events
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 CP=1842
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Year



The following table shows the completeness period for all the magnitude.

7. Definition of Seismic Sources

Depending on the available database, the seismic sources can be idealized as area
sources and fault sources. In case of Pakistan, area sources are normally recommended
due to the unavailability of detailed data of each fault and difficulty in defining fault with
accuracy. For area sources, the information on tectonics and site geology is analyzed to
define area sources. In the present case, we considered the shallow seismic sources
those adopted for the building code of Pakistan that defined by the NESPAK. For deep
earthquakes we considered the sources recommended by Waseem3.

3 Waseem, M. (2016) “PhD Thesis”, Italy.
a. Shallow Earthquakes

Figure 8. Shallow seismic sources used in BCP-2007

Figure 8. Geo-referencing of shallow seismic sources used in BCP-2007



The final de-clustered earthquake catalogue is plotted on the seismic sources that
occurred with in the area of influence. For each source the number of total earthquake
events, minimum and maximum magnitude, and the completeness period is computed
and tabulated. The procedure is applied for both the shallow and deep earthquakes.

Figure 10. Shallow seismic sources used in the present study, showing earthquake events

 a. Deep Earthquakes

Minimum Maximum
Zone No. of Earthquakes
Mw Mw
1 108 4.1 6.1
2 50 4.1 6.1
3 40 4.1 5.7


8. Derivation of Recurrence Models Parameters

This process involved development of recurrence model for each seismic source of both
shallow earthquake and deep earthquakes. During this process, the cumulative number
of earthquakes of a specified magnitude and greater are obtained, which is normalized
over the completeness period to calculate the cumulative frequency. The cumulative
frequency (in logarithmic form) is correlated with the specified magnitude, a linear
regression analysis is carried out and fitting to the data is performed to obtain the fitted
trend equation. This provide estimate of “a” and “b” parameter of the G-R model.

N = 10a-bMw

The G-R model parameters are obtained for the all the seismic sources of both the
shallow earthquake and deep earthquakes.

 a. For Shallow Zones

Recurrance Model (Shallow Zone 1)

Anual Rate of Exeedance
1 N= 10 4.2863+0.886M
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8
Mw

Recurrance Model (Shallow Zone 2)

1.5 N = 10 4.557+ 0.903M
Anual Rate of Exeedance

1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8
Mw

Recurrance Model (Shallow Zone 3)
0.5
N = 10 4.7948+ 1.0948M
Anual Rate of Exeedance

0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7
Mw

 Recurrance Model (Shallow Zone 4)
1
N = 10 6.1336+1.294M
Anual Rate of Exeedance
0.5

-0.5

-1

-1.5

-2
4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6
Mw

Recurrance Model (Shallow Zone 5)
0 N = 10 2.779+ 0.06907M
Anual Rate of Exeedance

-0.5

-1

-1.5

-2

-2.5
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5
Mw

Recurrance Model (Shallow Zone 6)

1 N = 10 4.736+ 0.986M
Anual Rate of Exeedance

0.5

-0.5

-1

-1.5

-2
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
Mw

 Recurrance Model (Shallow Zone 7)
0.5
N 10 4.781+1.0513M
Anual Rate of Exeedance
0

-0.5

-1

-1.5

-2

-2.5
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7
Mw

Recurrance Model (Shallow Zone 8)
0
-0.2 N = 10 3.2966+0.7814M
Anual Rate of Exeedance

-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
-1.8
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
Mw

 b. For Deep Zones

Recurrance Model (Deep Zone 2)

Anual Rate of Exeedance 0.5 y = -1.0927x + 4.6957
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
Mw

Recurrance Model (Deep Zone 3)

0.5
y = -1.2527x + 5.3438
Anual Rate of Exeedance

-0.5

-1

-1.5

-2
4 4.5 5 5.5 6
Mw

Recurrance Model (Deep Zone 1)
1 y = -1.3176x + 6.0162
Anual Rate of Exeedance

0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
Mw



 Seismic Zone a b
1 6.0375 1.3214
2 4.6957 1.0927
3 5.2605 1.2372

9. Hazard Computation using Crisis-2007
Inputs for crisis needs the values of mean annual rate of exceedance (λ) of a minimum
specified, and larger, magnitude earthquakes. It can be obtained from G-R relationship
in recurrence model using the following relationship.
λ = exp(α-βmo) x [exp(-β(m-mo)) - exp(-β(mmax-mo))] x 1/[1- exp(-β(mmax-mo))]
α=a*2.303
β=b*2.303

The following table reports the crisis input parameters for all sources of shallow & deep
earthquake:

a. Seismicity Parameters for Shallow Seismic Zones

b. Seismicity parameters for Deep Seismic Zones

 c. Ground Motion Prediction Equations:

The CRISIS software also requires definition and input parameters for region-specific
GMPE that are used for the computation of ground motions. Few built-in GMPE are also
available with in CRISIS. In the present, the following GMPE are used for Punjab due to
their similarities. Various input parameters relevant to the GMPE are obtained first as
per the CRISIS format and incorporated in the software.

For shallow zones
- Akkar and Boomer, 2010
- Bore and Atkinson, NGA 2008
- Kanno et al., 2006
- Zhao et al.2006
For deep zones
- Lin and Lee, 2008
- Kanno et al., 2006

d. Grid Size used in the Analysis

Depending on the area of responsibility, and the macro/micro desired level of anlysis an
appropriate grid size can be selected. Normally 1o is recommended for national level
analysis, 0.10o is recommended for provincial level analysis and 0.05o is recommended
for district level analysis. The present case considered a grid size of 0.05o.


10. GROUND MOTION MAPS

a. Zonation
For the purpose of zoning, the levels and range of ground motions of the Building Code
of Pakistan are used, as given below:

Very low: 0.01-0.08 g
Low: 0.08-0.16 g
Medium: 0.16-0.24 g
High: 0.24-0.32 g
Very high: > 0.32 g

b. Derived Seismic Hazard Maps

The hazard maps generated in CRISIS are transported to ArcGIS for plotting and
mapping. The following figure shows the hazard maps generated for Punjab for various
return periods. The final maps generated take into account all the uncertainties, and
averaged for all the GMPEs.



50 Years Return Period 100 Years Return Period

250 Years Return Period 500 Years Return Period

2500 Years Return Period

Figure 11. Seismic Hazard Maps for Punjab Province

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