Ohrid Policy Based Planning QIMSEE NM PDF

Policy based local(nacional) planning
of energy infrastructure
Prof. dr. sc. Slavko Krajcar; Prof. dr. sc. Nenad Debrecin
Here comes the CONTENT 2
The
… to your task
QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

3
Where do YOU(we) belong?

(FROM THE MARKET JOBS POINT OF VIEW)

Higher education in the field known as … 4
 Science
 Technology
 Engineering
 Mathematics

The meaning of the word STEM 5
Stabljika stalk
Proizlaziti emanate
Poticati encourage
Kljun beak
Stablo bole Drška handle
protiviti se oppose Osnova base

Cjepak scissile Kalem spool
Korijen root
Deblo trunk
Pramac bow

The most attractive new jobs in the near future 6

The Energy Challenge - Our Generation’s Challenge 7
When asked shortly

after WWII:
His prompt reply:
“Prof Einstein, what do

you see as the greatest “Exponential
threat to mankind?” growth”

8
“Ten years ago, futurologists were forecasting that

by now everyone would be 'connected' and that people
would be able to 'work anywhere'.
Most of us thought they were overly optimistic at best. But, in actual fact,
they were very nearly correct. Because now, the
majority of
world's population is already able to access
communications technology of some kind and the rest are
catching up fast.”
Jeff Patmore, BT's head of Strategic University Research

9
In reality …
WE ARE LIVING IN EXPONENTIAL
TIMES !!!
10
Back to the
ENERGY WORLD

11
The renewable-energy boom is here.

Trillions of dollars will be invested
over the next 25 years, driving some of the
most profound changes yet in how humans
get their electricity.
That's according to a new forecast by Bloomberg New
Energy Finance that plots out global power markets to 2040.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-way-humans-get-electricity-is-about-to-change-forever/ar-AAbZhP2?ocid=ASUDHP

12
The last energy news ...
European Union on track to meet its 20%

renewable target by 2020
So far, 26 member states have met their 2011/2012 targets
and 25 are expected to meet their 2013/2014 renewable
energy national targets.
http://www.enerdata.net/enerdatauk/press-and-publication/energy-news-001/european-union-track-meet-its-20-renewable-target-
2020_32958.html

or ... 13
17 June 2015 - CO2 emissions from fuel

combustion in the EU declined by 5% in
2014

14
Interview with the president of IEA dr.sc. Fatih Birol

Q: SO CAMPAIGNERS LIKE TO TALK ABOUT A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE.
DO YOU THINK THAT FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF WISHFUL THINKING?
A: NO, IT DEPENDS ON WHICH FUTURE, AND WHEN. IF IT IS TOMORROW,

THAT'S WISHFUL THINKING. BUT IF IT'S IN THE VERY FUTURE, IT IS
DEFINITELY FEASIBLE, AND IT IS ALSO SOMETHING
THAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE.

where did we start decade ago ...? 15

Where we are … for the first time ... 16

17
(we will skip this)
ENERGY USE VS GDP

Energy use and GDP (1) 18




CO2 and GDP 22
Kyoto ???

23
Can we ...
DECOUPLE THE CO2 AND GDP?

24
LET US KNOW … THAT IS ONE OF YOUR TASK

25
After small intruduction go back to

OUR MISSION

26
WHERE FROM COULD WE START TODAY?

(with) Your task 27
Your task may be explain as:
“The Teams are pleased to speculate on how the energy

infrastructure in Skopje will look like in 2050, which technologies are
most likely to prevail and how market players (generators and
consumers) are going to position themselves”.
Toward a Green Future of Skopje City ... or ...
“Skopje 2050 – Our Vision of Energy

Infrastructure”

28
… with the pathway similar as it was

during the period when ...

29
EU ROADMAP 2050
was doing by ECF (European Climate Fondation)

30
The mission of Roadmap 2050 project was (and stil it is)

to provide a practical, independent and objective analysis of
pathways to achieve a low-carbon economy in
Europe, in line with the energy security,
environmental and economic goals of the European
Union.*
*THE ROADMAP 2050 PROJECT IS AN INITIATIVE OF THE EUROPEAN CLIMATE FOUNDATION (ECF)

31
LET’ S WATCH WHAT HAS BEEN DONE

BY ECF AND ARE STILL DOING ...

32
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjWiB71BWRM

33
One of the political answers was

ENERGY UNION
THE PATHWAY TO THE FUTURE OF EUROPEAN UNION

34
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAHL-_Zd-YE

Energy Union (the idea) ... 35
 The Energy Union means in particular:

 Solidarity clause: reducing the dependence on single
suppliers;
 Energy flows, as if it were a Fifth freedom: that of free

flow of energy across borders;
 Energy efficiency first: fundamentally rethinking energy
efficiency and treating it as an energy source;
 Transition to a low-carbon society : ensuring that locally
produced energy, including from renewables; promoting the
next generation of RES and becoming a leader in
electromobility. Etc.
What’s the issue? 36
 One of the EU’s key political priorities, the

Energy Union ...
 will significantly reduce Europe’s reliance on
fossil fuels by
 removing barriers to the flow of energy,
 in a fully integrated EU-wide energy system.

Who will benefit and how? (1) 37
 European citizens:
 Limit energy bills using smart technology
 Generate own energy from renewable
sources and feed this into the electricity
grid
 Better energy security will reduce the risk
of black-outs.

37
 Businesses:
 New energy and climate technologies and
services
 Green growth and jobs in the EU and export
opportunities abroad
 More certainty for investors, with price signals
reflecting long-term needs and clear policy
objectives.
38
 Climate:
 An ambitious reduction of at least 40 %
in CO2 emissions by 2030
 More renewable energy in the EU’s
energy mix
 Energy efficiency will be increased,
especially in the building and transport
sectors.
Why must the EU act? 40
 Biggest energy importer in the world (53 %

at around EUR 400 billion a year).
 Still an incomplete internal energy

market, with some parts of the EU remaining
isolated energy islands.
 Renewable energy not fully integrated into

the electricity system.

What exactly will change? (1) 41
 The Commission proposes

 doing more to ensure that Member States implement and enforce
existing legislation
 passing legislation to increase gas and electricity supply

security
and other measures to reduce Europe’s reliance on dominant
suppliers
 setting up an Energy Infrastructure Forum to make sure major
infrastructure projects are delivered where and when needed
 passing legislation to modernise the European energy market and
reinforce the regulatory framework at regional and European level

What exactly will change? (2) 42
 The Commission proposes ctn’d

 passing legislation to ensure the 2030 climate and
energy targets are reached
 making energy costs and prices more transparent
 making buildings more energy-efficient and

decarbonising the transport sector
 putting an initiative on global energy and climate
technology and innovation leadership in place

When is the proposal likely to come into effect? 43
 25 February 2015: The Commission adopts:

 Energy Union Strategy
 Communication on the EU position for the climate
negotiations later this year
 Communication on how to bring its electricity interconnection
level to 10 % by 2020.
 March 2015: European Council meeting discusses strategy
 Other initiatives in 2015, 2016 and 2017 ...

44
The carbon (CO2) colored

EU INTENTIONS ARE

45
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nMVZWtcFHw

46
SOME MESSAGES FROM OUR SIDE ...

General messages 47
 Energy demand will continue to grow strongly
 Alternatives to “Business as Usual” (BaU) can limit

emissions to acceptable levels
 Renewable sources will dominate

 Investments need to be large (it means has to be done wisely)
 Strong environmental policies will be required

 New (unconventional) generation (e.g. space solar power) may be competitive

Drivers For Energy Needs 48
 Population
 Currently 7.2 Billion (2014 est)
 Expect 10 B by 2050 and 11.6 B by 2100
 Economic activity
 Gross world product currently (2014) $78 Trillion ($108 PPP)
 Expect $230 Trillion by 2050 and $500+ B by 2100
 Efficiency of energy utilization
 Desire to reduce inequities in global energy availability

Resource Availability & Environmental Implications 49
 Near Term Resources:

“There are sufficient reserves of most types
of energy resources to last at least several
decades at current rates of use” … IPCC*
 Environment: A major and growing

issue
*Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (established by UNEP)

50
Continuing BAU will aggravate

climate impacts

Environmental Outlook 51
 Only the “ecologically-driven” scenarios

reduce emissions significantly:
 Net emissions of energy-related Carbon are
reduced to tolerable levels by 2100
 Atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2100 stabilizes in
the range of 450 to 550 ppm
 This concentration should limit warming to 2 to 3
degrees C

Approaches To Stabilizing GHG Emissions 52
 There are two fundamental

approaches on the energy front:
 Reducing the impact of fossil fuels,
i.e., “decarbonizing” them
 Expanding the use of renewables (or
nuclear)

Decarbonizing Fossil Fuels 53
 Approaches include:
 Shifting to lower carbon fuels, e.g., gas vs. coal
 Improving the efficiency of use of such fuels
 Capturing and sequestering the carbon (CCS):
 “upstream” in the supply process, or
 “downstream” in the utilization process
 The measures are necessary but not sufficient – major

expansion in the supply from renewable sources
is vital
Renewables 54
 Renewable sources include: hydro, biomass, solar,

wind, geothermal and various forms of
ocean/tidal/wave energy
 Each has its own peculiar advantages and

drawbacks
 Only some can be exploited at a scale and in
a time frame that will make a significant contribution

Sources Viewed as Limited 55
 Hydro – only modest scope for expansion

 Biomass – important for fuels, but limited by
competition for land
 Geothermal - locally important, but not a large - scale

source unless the “Engineered Geothermal Systems”
approach can be developed successfully
 Ocean/tidal/wave - resources are immense yet

diffuse and expensive to exploit

Nuclear Outlook 56
 Nuclear suffers from concerns over public acceptance,

final waste management and proliferation
risk
 Little capacity is being added in the OECD countries and
some is being removed
 However, China, Russia and India have ambitious
programs
 More widespread use may be needed to meet
emissions targets
Significant renewables: Solar and Wind 57
 Total energy available from these sources is

immense, but the energy density is low
 Product is largely electricity, the most useful

form of energy
 The most scenario projects that these sources,
along with biomass for fuels, will be the
dominant sources of the future
Electricity from Solar and Wind (by WEC) 58
18000
TWh
16000
Solar
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000 Wind
4000
2000
0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
2014: generation 22,000 TWh; installed 5,500 TW (66% FF PP; 8 N PP, (18+8) RES PP)
The Matter of Intermittency 59
 Solar and wind are intermittent sources

and can be used immediately by the power grid
only to the some extent (20 - 25%) of production
 They can be more fully exploited to meet base

load needs if storage can be provided or
if the electricity is used

Energy Investments 60
 Recent (historically) capital expenditures ≈ 1% of GWP
 Implementing energy scenarios that reduce emissions

significantly will be more costly
 Stern Report documents* cost estimates to 5% of
GWP by 2050 (to stabilize atmospheric concentration of CO2 at 500 - 550 ppm)
 WEC * notes costs unlikely to exceed 2% of
(World energy council)
GWP
 * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stern_Review and ** http://www.worldenergy.org/

Recommendations 61
 Promote a better general understanding of the

world energy situation
 Support all plausible sources of sustainable and clean

energy
 Support policy actions that reduce emissions,

importantly, putting a price on carbon
 Support policy actions that improve efficiency
 Start now (in the afternoon  )

Take Away 62
 Energy demand will continue to grow

strongly
 Alternatives to “BAU (business as usual)” can

limit emissions to acceptable levels
 Renewable sources will dominate

 Strong environmental policies will be required

63
THE ECF MILESTONE SAYS ...

64
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xahXpzTNqsA

65
BUT ...

66
do not forget the hype curves ...
... the answer to the

technology maturity

Hype curve (by Gartner) 67

Smart cities Hype curve 2014 68

69
the economics of technology ...

EXPERIENCE (LEARNING) CURVES

Learning curve (1) 70
The Experience curve describes how costs drop with cumulative

Production because of learning and economies of scale

e.g. Energy Payback Time (EPBT) 71

or ... learning curve 72

73
do not forget the frames ...

YOU MAY EXPECT THE NEW (ADVANCED)
FRAMEWORKS
74
The 21st session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC is

expected to take place in December 2015, in Paris, France.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:

GETTING A GLOBAL AGREEMENT ON CLIMATE
CHANGE ... PARIS 2015

75
A more energy-efficient, low-carbon economy

is the cornerstone of the energy union. If we
scale-up domestic policies and international
cooperation, we can achieve it: it is a matter
of political will.
Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič
TOWARDS THE PARIS PROTOCOL

76
June 8, 2015 ...

US PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA SAID MONDAY
THAT G7 LEADERS HAD MADE HEADWAY TOWARD A
"STRONG" CLIMATE PACT AT AN END-OF-YEAR UN
CONFERENCE IN PARIS

77
all of these should ...
HELP YOU
78
BE IMAGINATIVE, INOVATIVE, CREATIVE AND

WISE ...
(BUT, DO NOT FORGET TO STAY ENGINEERS)

79
THE BLACK(WHITE)BOARD IS IN FRONT

OF YOU (PRESENTLY IT’S EMPTY  ) ...

80
We wish you pleasant and successful work
Your professors

81
Do You Have
Any Questions?
Thank you for your attention!

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Policy based local(nacional) planning

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

Where do YOU(we) belong?

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

protiviti se oppose Osnova base

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

When asked shortly

“Prof Einstein, what do

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

“Ten years ago, futurologists were forecasting that

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

The renewable-energy boom is here.

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

The last energy news ...

European Union on track to meet its 20%

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

17 June 2015 - CO2 emissions from fuel

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

Interview with the president of IEA dr.sc. Fatih Birol

A: NO, IT DEPENDS ON WHICH FUTURE, AND WHEN. IF IT IS TOMORROW,

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

(we will skip this)

ENERGY USE VS GDP

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

LET US KNOW … THAT IS ONE OF YOUR TASK

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

After small intruduction go back to

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

WHERE FROM COULD WE START TODAY?

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

Your task may be explain as:

“The Teams are pleased to speculate on how the energy

Toward a Green Future of Skopje City ... or ...

“Skopje 2050 – Our Vision of Energy

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

… with the pathway similar as it was

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

The mission of Roadmap 2050 project was (and stil it is)

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

LET’ S WATCH WHAT HAS BEEN DONE

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

One of the political answers was

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

 The Energy Union means in particular:

 Energy flows, as if it were a Fifth freedom: that of free

 One of the EU’s key political priorities, the

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

QIMSEE’s Summer School, July 2015

 Biggest energy importer in the world (53 %