Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Eckhard Platen
School of Finance and Economics and School of Mathematical Sciences
University of Technology, Sydney
Kloeden, P.E. & Pl, E.: Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations
Springer, Applications of Mathematics 23 (1992,1995,1999).
Pl, E. & Heath, D.: A Benchmark Approach to Quantitative Finance, Springer Finance (2010).
Pl, E. & Bruti-Niberati, N.: Numerical Solution of SDEs with Jumps in Finance,
Springer, Stochastic Modelling and Applied Probability 64 (2010).
Jump-Diffusion Multi-Factor Models
• Markovian
• benchmark framework
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 1
Pathwise Approximations:
• scenario simulation of entire markets
• stress testing
=⇒ higher order strong schemes
predictor-corrector methods
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 2
Strong Convergence
• strong order γ if
r
2
E XT − YN∆ ≤ K ∆γ
εs (∆) =
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 3
Probability Approximations:
• derivative prices
• sensitivities
• expected utilities
• portfolio selection
• risk measures
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 4
Weak Convergence
• weak order β if
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 5
Essential Requirements:
• parsimonious models
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 6
Continuous and Event Driven Risk
• counting processes pk
intensity hk
jump martingale q k
1
k −2
dWtm+k dqtk dpkt hkt
= = − dt ht
k ∈ {1, 2, . . . , d−m}
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 7
Primary Security Accounts
d
!
dStj = St−
j
ajt dt + bj,k
X
k
t dWt
k=1
Assumption 1
q
bj,k
t ≥− hk−m
t
k ∈ {m + 1, . . . , d}.
Assumption 2
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 8
• market price of risk
d
!
dStj = St−
j
bj,k
X
k k
rt dt + t (θt dt + dWt )
k=1
• portfolio
d
δtj dStj
X
dStδ =
j=0
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 9
• fraction
j Stj
πδ,t = δtj
Stδ
• portfolio
n o
dStδ = St−
δ
rt dt + π ⊤
δ,t− bt (θ t dt + dW t )
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 10
Assumption 3 q
hk−m
t > θtk
• NP fractions
⊤
π δ∗ ,t = (πδ1∗ ,t , . . . , πδd∗ ,t )⊤ = c⊤
t b−1
t
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 11
• Numeraire Portfolio - Benchmark
δ∗
dStδ∗ = St− rt dt + c⊤
t (θ t dt + dW t )
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 12
• benchmarked portfolio
Stδ
Ŝtδ =
Stδ∗
Ŝtδ ≥ Et (ŜTδ )
0≤t≤T <∞
=⇒ no strong arbitrage
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 13
Multi-Factor Models
Stj
Ŝtj =
Stδ∗
j ∈ {0, 1, . . . , d}
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 14
model savings account
Z t
St0 = exp rs ds
0
=⇒ NP
St0
Stδ∗ =
Ŝt0
=⇒ stock
Stj = Ŝtj Stδ∗
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 15
Example
• benchmarked security:
p
dŜt = Ŝt− Vt dWtS + dqt
• squared volatility:
• Bates model
p
dVt = ξ(η − Vt ) dt + q Vt dWtV
3
• 2
model
s
1 1 1
d =ξ η− dt + q dWtV
Vt Vt Vt
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 16
3
2.5
1.5
0.5
0
0 5 10 15 20
time
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 17
10
0
0 5 10 15 20
time
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 18
4.5
GOP
EWI
4
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
0 5 10 15 20
time
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 19
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 5 9 14 18 23 27 32
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450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 5 9 14 18 23 27 32
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 21
100
EWI
90 GOP
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 5 9 14 18 23 27 32
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 22
• fair security
=⇒ minimal price
Hτ
VHτ (t) = Stδ∗ Et
Sτδ∗
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 23
Fair Hedging
• benchmarked fair portfolio
Hτ
Ŝtδ = Et
Sτδ∗
=⇒ minimal price
• martingale representation
d Z τ
Hτ Hτ
X
= Et + xkHτ (s) dWsk + MHτ (t)
Sτδ∗ Sτδ∗ k=1 t
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 24
Numerical Solution of SDEs
• major problem:
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 25
Simulation of SDEs with Jumps
• strong schemes (paths)
exact simulation
Taylor (Wagner-Pl. expansion)
explicit
derivative-free
predictor-corrector
implicit, balanced implicit
• weak schemes (probabilities)
Taylor (Wagner-Pl. expansion)
simplified
explicit
derivative-free
predictor-corrector, implicit
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 26
Jump-Adapted Time Discretization
regular
t0 t1 t2 t3 = T
r r jump times
τ1 τ2
r r jump-adapted
t0 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 = T
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 27
• intensity of jump process
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 28
SDE with Jumps
X0 ∈ ℜ d
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 29
• time discretization
tn = n∆
∆
Yn+1 = Yn∆ + a(Yn∆ )∆ + b(Yn∆ )∆Wn + c(Yn∆ )∆pn
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Literature on Strong Schemes with Jumps
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 31
Euler Scheme
• Euler scheme
where
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 32
Strong Taylor Scheme
Wagner-Platen expansion (strong order γ = 1.0) =⇒
Yn+1 = Yn + a(Yn )∆ + b(Yn )∆Wn + c(Yn )∆pn + b(Yn )b′ (Yn ) I(1,1)
+ b(Yn ) c′ (Yn ) I(1,−1) + {b(Yn + c(Yn )) − b(Yn )} I(−1,1)
+ {c (Yn + c(Yn )) − c(Yn )} I(−1,−1)
with
1
I(1,1) = 1
2
{(∆Wn ) 2
− ∆}, I(−1,−1) = {(∆pn )2 − ∆pn }
2
PN (tn+1 )
I(1,−1) = i=N (tn )+1 Wτi − ∆pn Wtn , I(−1,1) = ∆pn ∆Wn − I(1,−1)
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 33
Derivative-Free Strong Schemes
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 34
• implicit methods
Talay (1982)
Klauder & Petersen (1985)
Milstein (1988)
Hernandez & Spigler(1992, 1993)
Saito & Mitsui(1993a, 1993b)
Kloeden & Pl. (1992, 1999)
Milstein, Pl. & Schurz (1998)
Higham (2000)
Alcock & Burrage (2006)
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 35
• ad hoc attempts lead to explosions
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Implicit Strong Schemes
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 37
Predictor-Corrector Euler Scheme
• corrector
Yn+1 = Yn + θ āη (Ȳn+1 ) + (1 − θ) āη (Yn ) ∆n
p(tn+1 )
X
+ η b(Ȳn+1 ) + (1 − η) b(Yn ) ∆Wn + c (ξi )
i=p(tn )+1
āη = a − η b b′
• predictor
p(tn+1 )
X
Ȳn+1 = Yn + a(Yn ) ∆n + b(Yn ) ∆Wn + c (ξi )
i=p(tn )+1
c
Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 38
Jump-Adapted Strong Approximations
and
Ytn+1 = Ytn+1 − + c(Ytn+1 − ) ∆pn
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 39
Merton SDE : µ = 0.05, σ = 0.2, ψ = −0.2, λ = 10, X0 = 1, T = 1
1
0.8
0.6
X
0.4
0.2
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
T
Figure 7: Plot of a jump-diffusion path.
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 40
0.0005
0.00025
-0.00025
Error
-0.0005
-0.00075
-0.001
-0.00125
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 41
Merton SDE : µ = −0.05, σ = 0.1, λ = 1, X0 = 1, T = 0.5
-10
-15
Log2 Error
-20
Euler
EulerJA
1Taylor
-25 1TaylorJA
15TaylorJA
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
Log2 dt
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 42
Literature on Weak Schemes with Jumps
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 43
Simplified Euler Scheme
• if ∆Ŵn and ∆p̂n match the first 3 moments of ∆Wn and ∆pn up to
an O(∆2 ) error =⇒ weak order β = 1
•
√ 1
P (∆W̃n = ± ∆) =
2
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 44
Jump-Adapted Taylor Approximations
b b′ 2
Ytn+1 − = Ytn + a∆tn + b∆Wtn + (∆Wtn ) − ∆tn + a′ b ∆Ztn
2
1 1 ′′ 2 1 ′′ 2
′ 2 ′
+ a a + a b ∆tn + a b + b b {∆Wtn ∆tn − ∆Ztn }
2 2 2
and
Ytn+1 = Ytn+1 − + c(Ytn+1 − ) ∆pn
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 45
Predictor-Corrector Schemes
• weak order β = 1
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 46
3
EulerJA
ImplEulerJA
2
PredCorrJA
1
Log2 Error
-1
-2
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1
Log2 dt
Figure 10: Log-log plot of weak error versus time step size.
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 47
Regular Approximations
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 48
Numerical Stability
• roundoff and truncation errors
• propagation of errors
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 49
• specially designed test equations
Milstein (1995)
Higham (2000)
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 50
• linear test dynamics
n p o
Xt = X0 exp (1 − α) λ t + α |λ| Wt
α, λ ∈ ℜ
=⇒
P lim Xt = 0 = 1 ⇐⇒ (1 − α)λ < 0
t→∞
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 51
• linear Itô SDE
3
p
dXt = 1− α λ Xt dt + α |λ| Xt dWt
2
p
dXt = (1 − α) λ Xt dt + α |λ| Xt ◦ dWt
• α=0 no randomness
2
• α= 3
Itô SDE no drift =⇒ martingale
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 52
Definition 5 Y = {Yt , t ≥ 0} is called asymptotically stable if
P lim |Yt | = 0 = 1.
t→∞
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 53
• stability region Γ
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 54
• transfer function
Yn+1
Y = Gn+1 (λ ∆, α)
n
Y asymptotically stable ⇐⇒
Higham (2000)
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 55
• Euler scheme
3
p
Gn+1 (λ ∆, α) = 1 + 1 − α λ ∆ + |α λ| ∆Wn
2
∆Wn ∼ N (0, ∆)
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 56
Figure 11: A-stability region for the Euler scheme
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 57
• semi-drift-implicit predictor-corrector Euler method
1
Yn+1 = Yn + a(Ȳn+1 ) + a(Yn ) ∆ + b(Yn ) ∆Wn
2
3 1 3
Gn+1 (λ ∆, α) = 1 + λ ∆ 1 − α 1+ λ∆ 1 − α
2 2 2
p
p
+ −α λ ∆Wn + −α λ ∆Wn
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 58
Figure 12: -stability region for semi-drift-implicit predictor-corrector Euler
method
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 59
Figure 13: A-stability region for the predictor-corrector Euler method with
θ = 0 and η = 12
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 60
Figure 14: A-stability region for the symmetric predictor-corrector Euler
method
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 61
p-Stability
1
For α ∈ [0, 1+p/2
) and λ < 0 test SDE is p-stable.
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 62
• Stability region those triplets (λ∆, α, p) for which Y is p-stable.
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 63
For λ ∆ < 0, α ∈ [0, 1) and p > 0 Y p-stable ⇐⇒
• for p > 0
=⇒
1
E(ln(Gn+1 (λ ∆, α))) ≤ E((Gn+1 (λ ∆, α))p − 1) < 0
p
=⇒ asymptotically stable
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 64
0
-2
ΛD-4
-6
-8
-10
2
1.5
p1
0.5
0
0
0.2
0.4
Α 0.6
0.8
1
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 65
0
-2
ΛD-4
-6
-8
-10
2
1.5
p1
0.5
0
0
0.2
0.4
Α 0.6
0.8
1
1.5
p1
0.5
0
0
0.2
0.4
Α 0.6
0.8
1
Figure 17: Stability region for the predictor-corrector Euler method with
θ = 0 and η = 12
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 67
Stability of Some Implicit Methods
• semi-drift implicit Euler scheme
1
Yn+1 = Yn + (a(Yn+1 ) + a(Yn ))∆ + b(Yn )∆Wn
2
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 68
0
-2
ΛD-4
-6
-8
-10
2
1.5
p1
0.5
0
0
0.2
0.4
Α 0.6
0.8
1
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 69
0
-2
ΛD-4
-6
-8
-10
2
1.5
p1
0.5
0
0
0.2
0.4
Α 0.6
0.8
1
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 70
• balanced implicit Euler method
3
p
Yn+1 = Yn + 1 − α λYn ∆+ α|λ|Yn ∆Wn +c|∆Wn |(Yn −Yn+1 )
2
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 71
0
-2
ΛD-4
-6
-8
-10
2
1.5
p1
0.5
0
0
0.2
0.4
Α 0.6
0.8
1
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 72
0
-2
ΛD-4
-6
-8
-10
2
1.5
p1
0.5
0
0
0.2
0.4
Α 0.6
0.8
1
Figure 21: Stability region for the simplified symmetric Euler method
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 73
0
-2
ΛD-4
-6
-8
-10
2
1.5
p1
0.5
0
0
0.2
0.4
Α 0.6
0.8
1
Figure 22: Stability region for the simplified symmetric implicit Euler
Scheme
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 74
0
-2
ΛD-4
-6
-8
-10
2
1.5
p1
0.5
0
0
0.2
0.4
Α 0.6
0.8
1
Figure 23: Stability region for the simplified fully implicit Euler Scheme
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 75
Variance Reduction via Integral Representations
• SDE
m
dXts,x = a(t, Xts,x ) dt + bj (t, Xts,x ) dWtj
X
j=1
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 76
d
0 ∂f (t, x) X
i ∂f (t, x)
L f (t, x) = + a (t, x)
∂t i=1
∂xi
d m
1 X X i,j k,j ∂ 2 f (t, x)
+ b (t, x) b (t, x)
2 i,k=1 j=1
∂xi ∂xk
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 77
h(τ, Xτ0,x )
u(0, x) = E
ū(τ, Xτ0,x )
= E
Z τ
= ū(0, x) + E L0 ū(t, Xt0,x ) dt
0
Z T
= ū(0, x) + E 1{t<τ } L0 ū(t, Xt0,x ) dt
0
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 78
50
40
30
20
10
6.7
6.65
6.6
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 80
References
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 81
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 82
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 83
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University of Technology, Sydney. QFRC Research Paper 234.
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Acad. Sc. Paris, Séries I Math. 295(3), 249–252. (in French).
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Copyright E. Platen SDE Jump MC 85