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Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Flow Processes
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

MIKE SHE
The MIKE SHE Integrated Hydrologic Model provides a water balance
and flow model for the delta, capable of analysing the short term and
long term impacts on the delta of upstream inflows, climate changes and
water abstractions.
z Physically based
z Complete land phase of hydrological
cycle
z Evapotranspiration from surface
water, vegetation and soil
z Surface water flows through rivers
and swamps
z Sub-surface flows in root zone and
ground water
z Integration of atmospheric, surface
and ground waters
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

ET and energy balance of the SVAT model

R = solar radiation

Reflected solar radiation


H= sensible heat flux
E = energy lost by ET

S = temporary stored energy


Loss/gain of energy
by horizontal air Veg. Tran-
movement spiration loss ET loss from water
Soil ET loss surfaces

G= heat conduction to the soil Flooded area

Groundwater
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Surface Vegetation Atmosphere Model (SVAT)


Vegetation parameters distributed by vegetation map - aggregated into 6 main veg. types
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Surface Vegetation Atmosphere Model (SVAT)


Satellite data (MODIS) of vegetation density used in SVAT simulation of distributed actual ET rates
10 days composites gap filled in cloud covered areas
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

MIKE SHE SVAT - outputs


Key output in hydrological modeling:
- Evapotranspiration losses

- Energi fluxes
ET rates simulated by MIKE SHE SVAT in permanently flooded
- Temperature of surface, vegetation
and temporarily flooded areas
- Resistances
… and many more
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

MIKE11 - Okavango Delta


Main characteristics affecting
conceptual and numerical model 1 level : downstream panhandle
2 level : proximal fan
z Flow separation and bifurcations
3 level : distal fan
rather than confluences
Nqoga/Kwai
z Extensive spills with numerous cross
flowing floodplains Thaoge
Jao/Boro
zComplex flow pattern - impossible to
separate 1-D and 2-D flow
z Inter basin runoff of lesser importance
compared to river inflows
Slowly wave propagation (3 months from
upstream to downstream) and yet highly
dynamic flooding extent (monthly,
seasonally, yearly)

UPSTREAM FLOW SPLITS ARE


ESSENTIAL TO REPRESENT
ACCURATELY IN ORDER TO SIMULATE
DOWNSTREAM FLOW AND SPILLS
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

MIKE11 - MIKE SHE flood plain coupling

MIKE11 (1-
(1-D) MIKE SHE OL (2-
(2-D)

ET loss

Infiltration loss MIKE SHE topographical model

MIKE11 Xsec geometry

dx dx
MIKE SHE flood code cell
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Simulation of flood extent and flood duration


Downstream panhandle and proximal fan during flood season

Flow in flooded areas handled by 2-D MIKE SHE overland flow model
Flow in rivers/channels handled by 1-D MIKE11 hydrodynamic model
The two models are dynamically coupled to account for floodplain spills and return flows
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Groundwater dynamics of delta islands

Low flood level


High flood level
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Unsaturated zone - model approach


1) Unsaturated zone includes 4 characteristic
soil types - all relatively uniform. Hydraulic
properties derived from soil sample data
applying pedo-transfer functions (Rosetta)

2) Since the soils according to grain analysis


are sandy capillary forces can be ignored
(gravitational flow approximation applied).
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Unsaturated zone and groundwater


Infiltration rates are significant on the
predominantly sandy soils in the early stages
of the flood season. Infiltration on newly
flooded areas raises the groundwater table to
the flood water levels.

Fresh water lenses replenished by flooding


embedded in older salt ground water.

Very limited topographical relief - low


groundwater flow rates directed towards
local depressions (Maun GW development project)

Hypothesis of significant regional


groundwater flow across downstream fault line
can not be supported by data or model test.
Insignificant with respect to delta water
balance
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Saturated zone - model approach


Groundwater component is included to
account for the local effects of
groundwater on the water balance
(recharge/discharge due to dynamic
flooding, ET losses from groundwater)

Consequently, only the surficial ground


water aquifer represented in the model.

No flow boundary assumed along model


boundary
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Upstream Inflows
18,000

Mohembo
16,000 Mukwe
5 year moving average
14,000 5 year moving average

12,000
Discharge (Mm3/a)

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
4

9
/3

/3

/4

/4

/5

/5

/6

/6

/7

/7

/8

/8

/9

/9
33

43

53

58

63

68

73

78

93
38

48

83

88

98
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Upstream Inflows
12,000

Mohembo
10,000 normal period
Mukwe

8,000 critical period


Discharge (Mm3/a)

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Delta Zones
MODEL AREA (km2) 28,782
Zone 1 - 0.1>FF>0 19,322 rarely flooded
Zone 2 - 0.5>FF>0.1 3,534 occasionally flooded
Zone 3 - 0.9>FF>0.5 2,328 seasonally flooded
Zone 4 - 1>FF>0.9 2,152 permanently flooded
Zone 5 - Panhandle 1,446 Panhandle
Based on satellite analysis
(J McCarthy, Stockholm University)
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Water Balance
Angola U/S Delta Climate
WATER BALANCE (mm/annum) Baseline
Dams Irrigation Abstraction Change

Precipitation -393 -393 -393 -393 -360

Evapotranspiration 691 694 667 691 590

Inflow -217 -220 -190 -217 -135

Outflow 6 6 6 6 6

Overland Storage Change -37 -38 -40 -37 -45

Subsurface Storage Change -48 -48 -49 -48 -54

TOTAL 2 2 2 2 1
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Baseline Overland Flow


Dry Period
(1992 to 1997)
Overland Depth
of Flow (m)
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Minimum Depth of Overland Flow


Dry Period (1992
to 1997)
Minimum Depth
of Flow (m)
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Time Series of Overland Flow


Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Flooded Area
Angola U/S Delta Climate
IMPACTS Baseline
Dams Irrigation Abstraction Change

Minimum Flooded Area (km2) 1,513 -33 -661 -4 -736

zone 1 (Rarely Flooded) 15 0 -14 -1 -15

zone 2 (Occasionally Flooded) 19 0 -5 0 -6

zone 3 (Seasonally Flooded) 227 -13 -118 -3 -132

zone 4 (Permanently Flooded) 934 -18 -303 0 -343

zone 5 (Panhandle) 318 -2 -221 0 -240

Maximum Flooded Area (km2) 12,077 93 -75 -7 -716

zone 1 (Rarely Flooded) 4,426 78 -47 -14 -450

zone 2 (Occasionally Flooded) 2,573 9 -21 4 -139

zone 3 (Seasonally Flooded) 2,045 7 -7 1 -73

zone 4 (Permanently Flooded) 2,076 -1 1 2 -43

zone 5 (Panhandle) 957 0 -1 0 -11


Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Soil Moisture
Dry Period (1992 to
1997)
Soil Moisture
Deficit (mm)
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Ground Water
Dry Period
Maximum Depth to
Ground Water (m)
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Dams in Angola
500

450 Recorded

400 WERRD-08

350
Discharge (m3/s)

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
Oct 92 Apr 93 Oct 93 Apr 94 Oct 94 Apr 95 Oct 95 Apr 96 Oct 96 Apr 97 Oct 97
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Inflow with Irrigation


500

Recorded

Irrigation
400
Discharge (m3/s)

300

200

100

0
Oct 92 Apr 93 Oct 93 Apr 94 Oct 94 Apr 95 Oct 95 Apr 96 Oct 96 Apr 97 Oct 97
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Impact on Overland Depth


Dry Period (1992 to
1997)
Difference in
Depth of Flow (m)
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Inflow from Upstream Basin


1,000

Observed
800

Climate Change
Discharge (m3/s)

600

400

200

0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Precipitation and Temperature


35.0

30.0

25.0
Temperature (degC)

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0
Oct 92 Oct 93 Oct 94 Oct 95 Oct 96 Oct 97 Oct 98 Oct 99 Oct 00 Oct 01 Oct 02

Average Daily Temperature Change: 19.9 to 22.1degC

Precipitation Change: 393 to 360mm/a


Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Impact on Overland Flow


Dry Period (1992
to 1997)
Difference in
Depth of Flow (m)
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model

Impact on OverLand Flow