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Flow Processes
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model
MIKE SHE
The MIKE SHE Integrated Hydrologic Model provides a water balance
and flow model for the delta, capable of analysing the short term and
long term impacts on the delta of upstream inflows, climate changes and
water abstractions.
z Physically based
z Complete land phase of hydrological
cycle
z Evapotranspiration from surface
water, vegetation and soil
z Surface water flows through rivers
and swamps
z Sub-surface flows in root zone and
ground water
z Integration of atmospheric, surface
and ground waters
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model
R = solar radiation
Groundwater
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model
- Energi fluxes
ET rates simulated by MIKE SHE SVAT in permanently flooded
- Temperature of surface, vegetation
and temporarily flooded areas
- Resistances
… and many more
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model
MIKE11 (1-
(1-D) MIKE SHE OL (2-
(2-D)
ET loss
dx dx
MIKE SHE flood code cell
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model
Flow in flooded areas handled by 2-D MIKE SHE overland flow model
Flow in rivers/channels handled by 1-D MIKE11 hydrodynamic model
The two models are dynamically coupled to account for floodplain spills and return flows
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model
Upstream Inflows
18,000
Mohembo
16,000 Mukwe
5 year moving average
14,000 5 year moving average
12,000
Discharge (Mm3/a)
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
4
9
/3
/3
/4
/4
/5
/5
/6
/6
/7
/7
/8
/8
/9
/9
33
43
53
58
63
68
73
78
93
38
48
83
88
98
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model
Upstream Inflows
12,000
Mohembo
10,000 normal period
Mukwe
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model
Delta Zones
MODEL AREA (km2) 28,782
Zone 1 - 0.1>FF>0 19,322 rarely flooded
Zone 2 - 0.5>FF>0.1 3,534 occasionally flooded
Zone 3 - 0.9>FF>0.5 2,328 seasonally flooded
Zone 4 - 1>FF>0.9 2,152 permanently flooded
Zone 5 - Panhandle 1,446 Panhandle
Based on satellite analysis
(J McCarthy, Stockholm University)
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model
Water Balance
Angola U/S Delta Climate
WATER BALANCE (mm/annum) Baseline
Dams Irrigation Abstraction Change
Outflow 6 6 6 6 6
TOTAL 2 2 2 2 1
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model
Flooded Area
Angola U/S Delta Climate
IMPACTS Baseline
Dams Irrigation Abstraction Change
Soil Moisture
Dry Period (1992 to
1997)
Soil Moisture
Deficit (mm)
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model
Ground Water
Dry Period
Maximum Depth to
Ground Water (m)
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model
Dams in Angola
500
450 Recorded
400 WERRD-08
350
Discharge (m3/s)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Oct 92 Apr 93 Oct 93 Apr 94 Oct 94 Apr 95 Oct 95 Apr 96 Oct 96 Apr 97 Oct 97
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model
Recorded
Irrigation
400
Discharge (m3/s)
300
200
100
0
Oct 92 Apr 93 Oct 93 Apr 94 Oct 94 Apr 95 Oct 95 Apr 96 Oct 96 Apr 97 Oct 97
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model
Observed
800
Climate Change
Discharge (m3/s)
600
400
200
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Okavango Delta Management Plan Integrated Hydrological Model
30.0
25.0
Temperature (degC)
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Oct 92 Oct 93 Oct 94 Oct 95 Oct 96 Oct 97 Oct 98 Oct 99 Oct 00 Oct 01 Oct 02