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They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on March 15-17, 2018. Participants were not required to answer every question.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raise interest
rates 100%
Lower interest
rates 0%
Keep rates
unchanged 0%
Don't know/
unsure 0%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
10% 10%
Launch new quantitative easing: 0%
10%
5% 5%
4%
3% 2% 2% 2% 2%
0%
0%
Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar
27 '16 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 '17 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 '18 20
(For the 100% answering the next move will be to raise rates)
Apr 0%
May 3%
Jun 83%
Jul 5%
Aug 3% Average:
June
Sep 8% 2019
Oct 0%
Nov 0%
Dec 0%
Jan '19 0%
Feb 0%
4.00
3.50
3.45
3.21
3.00
2.86 2.84
Average
2.50 2.63
2.48
2.39
2.26
2.00
1.50
1.00
Sep 19 Oct 31 Dec 12 Jan 30 Mar 20
Survey Dates
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Part of a
broader policy
shift toward 53%
more import
restrictions
Isolated actions
limited to
these particular 13%
industries
and products
Too soon to
tell if they are
part of a shift 35%
or isolated
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
More U.S.
jobs overall 13%
Fewer U.S.
jobs overall 48%
No change
in U.S. jobs 35%
Don't know/
unsure 5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yes 75%
No 23%
Don't
know/ 3%
unsure
7. How would you view a U.S. exit from the North American
Free Trade Agreement?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Very
negative 48%
Negative 33%
Neutral 15%
Positive 3%
Very
positive 0%
Don't
know/ 3%
unsure
Jan 30 Mar 20
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Positive
16%
for U.S.
economic
growth 3%
Neutral
8%
for U.S.
economic
growth 13%
Negative
55%
for U.S.
economic
growth 63%
Too soon
to tell
21%
the impact
on U.S.
economic 23%
growth
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
A healthy
part of the
market cycle;
we're past 60%
the worst
of it
A red
flag for
the markets; 30%
expect more
sell offs
Don't know/
unsure 10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
More
bullish 8%
Unchanged 73%
More
bearish 20%
Don't
know/ 0%
unsure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Strongly
approve 13%
Approve 45%
Neutral 20%
Disapprove 18%
Strongly
disapprove 5%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Jerome Powell
Chairman 5.4
William Dudley
Vice Chairman 4.6
* The survey mistakenly listed Mark Mullinix as the Richmond Fed representative. He was
interim president during 2017. Thomas Barkin started as Richmond Fed president in January,
2018.
13. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on … ?
3,200
3005
3,000
2928
2937
2862
2,800 2839
2775
2708
2,600
2588 2593
2555 2564 2562
2480
2,400 2453
2,200
2,000
1,800
Dec Jan 31 Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar 20
13 2017 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30
2018
Survey Dates
4.0%
3.54%
3.5% 3.44% 3.43% 3.44%
3.37%
3.22% 3.24%
3.17%
3.05% 3.03% 3.06% 3.07%
2.95%
3.0%
2.84%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar 20
13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30
2017 2018
Survey Dates
15. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on … ?
Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2020
3.5%
2.86%
3.0% 2.90%
1.78%
1.69%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar
26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 20
2017 2018
16. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminal rate?
4.0%
3.5%
3.30%
3.20% 3.21%
3.17%
3.11% 3.18%
3.06%
3.16%
2.98% 2.95%
3.0% 3.04% 2.94%
2.92%
2.85% 2.94%
2.91%
2.85% 2.79% 2.73% 2.80%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64% 2.66%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%
2.42% 2.44%
2.29%
2.0%
Sep 16
Sept 16
Jul 26
Sep 20
Sep 19
Mar 20
Jun 16
Jun 14
Jun 13
Oct 28
Dec 16
Mar 17
Jul 28
Oct 27
Jan 26 '16
Jan 31 '17
Jan 27, '15
Dec 15
Mar 15
Dec 13
Mar 14
Jul 25
Oct 31
Jan 30 '18
Dec 12
Aug 20
Apr 28
Aug 25
Apr 26
Aug 24
May 2
Nov 1
Survey Dates
3.0%
2.94%
2.85%
2.85%
2.8% +2.76%+2.75%
2.76%
2.72%
2.61% 2.70%
+2.62%
2.6% 2.60%
+2.58%
2.2%
2.0%
1.8%
Jan 31 Jan 30
Dec 13 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25 Sep 19 Oct 31 Dec 12 Mar 20
'17 '18
2018 +2.76% +2.75% +2.62% +2.58% +2.45% 2.45% 2.60% 2.61% 2.85% 2.94% 2.76%
2019 2.85% 2.70% 2.72%
2.8%
2.64%
2.6% 2.57%
2.54%
2.50%
2.44%
2.41%
2.4%
2.38%
2.15% 2.14%
2.0%
1.8%
1.6%
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar 20
13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30
2017 2018
Survey Dates
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
Apr 30 2 3 2 1
‘13 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Jun 18 5 8 0 3 3 0 3 0
3 2 1 1
Jul 30 8 0 2 0 2 2 0 4 4
2 2 1
Sep 17 4 7 2 2 0 4 8 7 2
2 2 1
Oct 29 8 9 4 3 3 3 8 3 0
3 2 1
Dec 17 5 2 9 2 0 2 5 2 2
Jan 28 2 3 1 2
'14 7 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Mar 18 0 3 6 3 5 0 5 8 0
2 2 1 1
Apr 28 3 6 1 3 5 0 8 8 3 0
1 2 1 1 1 1
Jul 29 2 9 2 6 3 0 2 2 2 3
2 2 1 1
Sep 16 6 6 9 6 3 0 6 1 1 3
3 1 1 1
Oct 28 1 8 5 3 3 0 0 8 8 3
4 1 1 1
Dec 16 0 4 4 3 6 0 3 4 3 0
Jan 27 1 1 4 1
'15 0 3 9 0 0 0 6 6 1 6 6 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
1 2 1 1
Mar 17 6 4 0 3 6 0 6 8 8 7 4 0
1 1 2 1
April 28 3 1 8 3 0 0 6 1 8 8 9 3
1 1 2 2 1
Jun 16 3 7 3 0 0 0 4 5 2 6 1 0
2 1 2
Jul 28 6 1 9 0 0 0 2 6 9 9 9 0
1 4 1
Sept 16 0 6 2 0 4 0 0 8 5 8 4 2
1 4 1
Oct 27 0 8 5 3 8 0 8 3 1 0 5 0
1 1 4 1
Dec 15 0 0 5 0 0 0 8 0 4 5 3 5 0
Jan 26 1 4 2
'16 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 5 4 8 0 3 3
2 3 2
Mar 15 5 1 3 0 0 0 5 5 3 5 0 3 1 0
2 3 1
Apr 26 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 7 6 9 0 7 1 2
2 2 1 1
Jun 14 0 8 5 3 0 0 3 0 8 8 0 5 3 0 0
2 1 2
Jul 26 2 0 7 2 2 0 2 0 2 7 0 7 7 7 2
1 3 1 1
Aug 24 3 9 3 3 0 0 3 3 1 3 3 6 4 1 0
1 1 3 1
Sep 20 0 6 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 8 5 5 8 1 0
2 3
Nov 1 3 7 8 0 3 0 8 3 2 3 0 0 5 8 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
1 2
Dec 13 5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 9 0 2 7 8 5 2
Jan 31 1 1 5 1
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
4 1
Mar 14 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 7 4 3 0
2 2 1
May 2 0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 4 5 0 0 5 6 8 3 0
2 1 1
Jun 13 0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 1 8 5 0 0 6 8 8 3 0
1 1 2 1
Jul 25 0 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 8 5 0 0 0 5 8 8 0
1 1 3
Sep 19 0 2 2 0 2 0 5 2 7 0 7 2 0 2 2 7 7 0
2 1 1 1
Oct 31 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 5 3 5 0 0 2 9 2 4 9 0
1 1 1 1 1
Dec 12 0 7 5 2 0 0 0 7 2 0 2 0 2 2 7 5 5 2 0
Jan 30 2 1 1
‘18 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 8 0 0 0 3 4 5 3 8 8 0
4 1
Mar 20 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 0 3 3 0 0 7 3 0 8 6 0
Other responses:
CEOs who cave in to equity analysts Overall debt levels, including
who want them to raise dividends unfunded liabilities
and buy back shares rather than Political uncertainty
investing in plant and equipment Reversing QE consequences
Weaker profit margins Share revaluation of asset prices
36.1%
This survey:
35%
34.0% 14.3%
30%
28.5% 28.8%
26.0%
25.9%
25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
23.5%
22.9%24.1% 23.2%
22.1%
22.2%
20.6% 21.6%
20.4% 21.1% 19.3%
20% 20.3% 18.9%
18.8%
18.2% 18.4% 18.5%
19.1% 17.3% 18.6% 18.1%
16.9% 16.9%
17.6% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4%
16.7%
15.1% 16.4%
16.2%
15% 15.1% 14.3%
15.3% 15.0% 14.9%
15.2% 15.2%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6% 13.7%
13.0%
10%
Other
24%
Economics
41%
Currencies
0% Fixed Income
11%
Equities
24%
Comments:
Rob Morgan, Chief Investment Officer, Sethi: The Fed will raise
rates at the March meeting, and begin to signal in the
pronouncement and future commentary that four hikes in 2018 is
the new expectation of the committee.