Professional Documents
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1. (10 marks) Ten percent of computer parts produced by a certain supplier are defective. What is
the probability that a sample of 10 parts contains more than 3 defective ones?
2. (10 marks) On the average, two tornadoes hit major U.S. metropolitan areas every year. What
is the probability that more than five tornadoes occur in major U.S. metropolitan areas next year?
(As you probably saw in the news, a real tornado occurred near downtown Dallas on Sep 8,
2010.)
3. (10 marks) A lab network consisting of 20 computers was attacked by a computer virus. This
virus enters each computer with probability 0.4, independently of other computers.
4. (10 marks) On the average, 1 computer in 800 crashes during a severe thunderstorm. A certain
company had 4,000 working computers when the areawas hit by a severe thunderstorm.
a) Compute the expected value and variance of the number of crashed computers.
b) Compute the probability that less than 10 computers crashed.
c) Compute the probability that exactly 10 computers crashed.
5. (10 marks) A baker put 500 raisins into dough, mixed well, and made 100 cookies. You take a
random cookie. What is the probability of finding at least 4 raisins in it?
(Hint: use Poisson approximation to the Binomial distribution of the number of raisins in one
cookie.)
7. (10 marks) An internet search engine looks for a certain keywordin a sequence of independent
web sites. It is believed that 20% of the sites contain this keyword.
a) Let X be the number of websites visited until the first keywordis found. Find the distribution
of X.
b) Compute the expected value and the standard deviation of X.
c) Out of the first 10 websites, let Y be the number of sites that contain the keyword. Find the
distribution of Y .
d) Compute the expected value and the standard deviation of Y .
e) Compute the probability that at least 5 of the first 10 websites contain the keyword.
f) Compute the probability that the search engine had to visit at least 5 sites inorder to find the
first occurrence of a keyword.
8. (10 marks) Identical computer components are shipped in boxes of 5. About 15% of components
have defects. Boxes are tested in a random order.
a) What is the probability that a randomly selected box has only non-defective components?
b) What is the probability that at least 8 of randomly selected 10 boxes have only non-defective
components?
c) What is the distribution of the number of boxes tested until a box without defective compo-
nents is found?
9. (10 marks) A master file consists of 150,000 records. When a transaction file is run against the
master file, approximately 12,000 records are updated.The records to be updated are assumed to
be distributed uniformly over the master file. A program reads all the records one by one and
updates those which are necessary to update. What is the probability that
10. (10 marks) The Stanley Cup winner is determined in the final series between two teams. The
first team to win 4 games wins the Cup. Suppose that Dallas Stars advance to the final series, and
they have a probability of 0.55 to win each game, and the game results are independent of each
other. Find the probability that
(Hint: Without loss of generality, you can assume that the series continues until 7 games are
played, even if the Cup winner is determined earlier. This ”change of Stanley Cup rules” will not
change the answer to the problem!)
12. (10 marks) Suppose that the number of inquiries arriving at a certain interactive system follows
a Poisson distribution with arrival rate of 12 inquiries per minute.
Find the probability of 10 inquiries arriving
a) in a 1-minute interval;
b) in a 3-minute interval.
c. What is the expectation and the variance of the number of arrivals during each of these
intervals?
3.
a. Let X be the number of computers entered by the virus. Each of the 20 computers is either
entered or not, thus X is the number of ”successes” in n = 20 Bernoulli trials. Hence, X has
Binomial distribution with n = 20 and p = 0.4. From the Table of Binomial distribution,
b. We need to find P (Y ≥ 6), where Y is the number of computers tested until the first infected
computer is found. This is the number of trials required to see the first success, therefore, Y has
Geometric(p = 0.4) distribution. Using Geometric PMF (and geometric series),
∞
X (0.6)5
P (Y ≥ 6) = (0.6)y−1 (0.4) = (0.4) = (0.6)5 = 0.0778
y=6
1 − 0.6
Another solution... The computer manager has to check at least 6 computers if the first five were
not infected. The first five computers are not infected with probability (1 − 0.4)5 = 0.0778.
5.
The number of raisins X in one cookie is Binomial with n = 500 and p = 0.01. It is approximately Poisson
with parameter np = 5. The probability of finding at least 4 raisins is
6.
b) Here, the probability of success increases after each failure, therefore, the distribution of
N is not Geometric. Since the order is random, the correct password has the same chance
to appear first, second, etc., in a sequence of trials. Therefore, P (N = x) = 1/n for
x = 1, 2, ..., n (this is called Discrete Uniform distribution).
c) In (a), the distribution is Geometric, so
1
E(X) = = n = 10
p
10
X X 1 10 · 11
E(X) = xP (x) = x = = 5.5
x=1
10 2 · 10
Certainly, a smarter strategy (b) yields a smaller expected number of trials.
7.
a) X is Geometric(p = 0.2).
√ √
b) E(X) = 1/p = 5 and Std(X) = 1 − p/p = 0.8/0.2 = 4.47.
c) Y is Binomial(n = 10, p = 0.2).
p √
d) E(Y ) = np = 2 and Std(Y ) = np(1 − p) = 2 · 0.8 = 1.265
e) From the Binomial Table, P (X ≥ 5) = 1 − F (4) = 1 − 0.9672 = 0.0328 .
f) P (Y ≥ 5) = (1 − p)4 = 0.4096 .
8.
P (X = 5) = (0.85)5 = 0.44 .
b) Now, let Y be the number of boxes with only non-defective components. This Y is also
Binomial. Its parameters are n = 10 and p = 0.44, where p is calculated in (a).
10 · 9
P (Y ≥ 8) = P (8)+P (9)+P (10) = ( )(.44)8 (.56)2 +(10)(.44)9 (.56)+(.44)10 = 0.0249
2
c) This is precisely the number of trials needed to get the firstsuccess. Therefore, the distribu-
tion is Geometric with p = 0.44.
9.
10.
a) Let the series continue till 7 games are played, and let X be the number of games won by
Dallas Stars. X has Binomial distribution with parameters n = 7, p = 0.55.
11.
a) The number of games played until the first Dallas Stars victory is Geometric with parameter
p = 0.55 and expected value E(X) = 1/p = 20/11. Then, the expected number of games
until the 4-th victory is
20 3
E(X1 + X2 + X3 + X4 ) = 4 =7 games
11 11
b. We need to find the probability that Dallas Stars wins at least 4 of the first 9 games, and it
equals 0.8342 . Use Binomial(n = 9, p = 0.55) distribution.
c. This is the probability that the series lasts at least 7 games,which means that 6 games weren’t
enough, so Dallas had no more than 3 wins after 6 games. Using Binomial distribution with
n = 6, p = 0.55, we find that
P (X ≤ 3) = 0.5585
12.
a) Let X be the number of inquiries in a 1-min interval. Then X is a Poisson random variable
with the parameter 12.
e−36 · 3610
P (X = 10) = = 0.0000002337
10!
c. For Poisson distribution with parameter λ, we have E(X) = V ar(X) = λ.
Therefore, for a 1-min interval, E(X) = V ar(X) = 12, and for a 3-min interval, E(X) =
V ar(X) = 36.