Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Australia-ASEAN Special
Summit: An Assessment
March 17, 2018

We request your assessment of this weekend's ASEAN-Australian Special Summit. Our

questions are as follows:
Q1. Why did Australia host a high-level summit with ASEAN now? What are Australia’s
main interests and hidden agenda in boosting relations with ASEAN at this Special
Summit?
ANSWER: ASEAN and Australia held their first summit in 2010. Four years later ASEAN
and Australia raised their comprehensive partnership to a strategic partnership and
also agreed to convene biennial leaders’ summits. The first was held in Laos in 2016.
So, the current ASEAN-Australia special summit follows the protocol of what has
already been agreed with respect to timing.
Australia has no hidden agenda in advancing its relations with ASEAN. Australia was
ASEAN’s first dialogue partner. In 2007, ASEAN AND Australia adopted a joint
declaration on Comprehensive Partnership, as noted, this was raised to a Strategic
Partnership seven years later. As a result of the historical development of relations
ASEAN and Australia share a broad agreement on an agenda of cooperation that
mirrors the three main pillars of ASEAN community building: political-security
cooperation, economic cooperation and socio-cultural cooperation.
Australia has at least three major objectives with respect to the Special Summit. First,
to enlist ASEAN in deeper cooperation to combat international terrorism including the
return of foreign fighters from Syria and Iraq back to this region. Second, to promote
trade liberalization through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. And
third, to promote a regional order based on international law in general and UNCLOS
in particular, and support for ASEAN in its negotiations with China for a binding Code
of Conduct in the South China Sea.
Q2. Briefly, what are the main challenges currently facing Australia-ASEAN relations?
ANSWER: The main challenge is how to promote ASEAN’s unity and cohesion so
ASEAN remains central to regional affairs. Two different challenges must be faced.
First, how to manage relations between ASEAN and the major powers, particularly
China and the United States. The second challenge is how to engage ASEAN members
who are preoccupied with domestic issues such as Myanmar, Cambodia and the
Philippines. There is an overlap between these two issues.
 2

A second major challenge is how to promote regional economic integration between

ASEAN and its six dialogue partners through a high-quality Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership and oppose protectionism at the same time.
Q3. What does Cambodia stand to gain from this summit?
ANSWER: Cambodia’s diplomats, senior officials and foreign minister have been
involved in the pre-summit discussion of what to include in the final joint statement.
Cambodia benefits from being part of Team ASEAN because it will be accorded equal
treatment along with all the other ASEAN members. The Hun Sen regime will gain
some legitimacy for participating in the summit in a non-disruptive manner. No doubt
Hun Sen will use his appearance at the summit in Sydney for domestic political effect.
Hun Sen will be able to argue that he and not opposition critics commands attention.
Q4. Although confirming his attendance at the summit, Prime Minister Hun Sen
repeatedly vowed to shame Australia by blocking release of any statement by the
summit mentioning his political crackdown in Cambodia. Will Australia dare to raise
such issues as human rights abuses and devolution of democracy with Cambodia’s
Prime Minister during any bilateral or multilateral talks on the sideline of the summit?
ANSWER: There was and there is no possibility that the Australia-ASEAN joint
statement will mention the domestic situation in Cambodia. Hun Sen’s outbursts are
sound and fury over nothing. Hun Sen’s attack on democracy in Cambodia has led to
public protests by Australian citizens of Khmer ancestry. They will not be cowed by
Hun Sen’s threats.
Earlier today, at a press conference, when asked about human rights in Myanmar and
Cambodia Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull called the question an overstatement and
played down this issue. However, he raised the issues of democracy and human rights
in his bilateral meeting with Hun Sen today.
Q5. Australia was a major player in Cambodian politics for example by crafting the
milestone Paris Peace Agreements in 1991. What should the Australian government
do to positively and constructively engage with Cambodia so as not forsake Australia’s
commitment to democracy and human rights values?
ANSWER: China now plays the largest role in Cambodia, edging out the United States
and Australia. It takes two parties to engage, Australia can’t engage with Cambodia if
Hun Sen doesn’t want to..
Prime Minister Hun Sen has adopted a policy of “cutting off your nose to save your
face” by cancelling or threatening to cancel programs and activities with countries that
criticize him. Hun Sen last year cancelled military exercises with Australia after he cut
them with the United States.
Cambodia will hold national elections in July and Hun Sen has dared his critics to
withdraw their support for the elections. It is difficult for Australia to play a meaningful
role in such a situation.
Australia can continue to support the Cambodian people rather than the government
through a tailored development assistance program through non-governmental
organizations. Australia can give asylum to Cambodian citizens who fear for their well-
being under Hun Sen.
 3

Australia, as a member of Paris Conference on Cambodia in 1991, could lobby the

other likeminded states (Canada, France, India, Japan, the UK and the US) to
reconvene the Conference to discuss the failure of Hun Sen to respect liberal
multiparty democracy enshrined in the state constitution. This could be a difficult
objective to achieve as China and Russia (the successor state to the Soviet Union) were
signatories along with Brunei, Cambodia Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Singapore, and Vietnam who, as ASEAN members, uphold non-interference in the
internal affairs of other states.
Finally, if the July elections are not free and fair and Hun Sen continues his repression,
Australia could adopt targeted sanctions against specific individuals and government
departments involved in repression.
Australia is more likely to see which way the regional wind is blowing and trim its sails
accordingly. This means that democracy and human rights in Cambodia are unlikely to
be a top priority.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Australia-ASEAN Special Summit: An

Assessment,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, March 17, 2018. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.