UKCIP02 headline messages

Not all of the changes described by UKCIP02 are given with the same confidence. Based on both expert judgement and consistency with other global climate
models, some changes in future UK climate have been assigned a higher confidence than others, ranging from ‘high’ to ‘low’. When using the UKCIP02 climate
change scenarios, regardless of the level of detail, it is important to understand the confidence associated with the specific changes described (as indicated in
brackets) and to ensure that use of the information is consistent with and fully reflects the associated uncertainties. All future changes are relative to the
baseline period of 1961 to 1990.
The UK will continue to get warmer…
• Average annual temperature for all • By 2040, average annual temperature for the UK is expected to rise by between 0.5 and 1°C,
regions of the UK has risen by between depending on region. By 2100, average annual temperature for the UK is expected to rise by
0.4 and 0.9°C since 1914. between 1 and 5°C, depending on region and emissions scenario (high confidence).
• The UK has experienced 8 of the 10
• There is expected to be greater warming in the south and east than in the north and west (high
warmest years on record since 1990
(based on the Central England confidence).
Temperature record). • There is expected to be greater warming in the summer and autumn than in the winter and spring
• The thermal growing season for plants (medium confidence).
has increased by up to 30 days since • The thermal growing season is expected to continue to lengthen (high confidence), but soil moisture
1900. levels in the summer and autumn are expected to decrease (high confidence).
Summers will continue to get hotter and drier…
• Average summer temperature for all • By 2040, average summer temperature for the UK is expected to rise by between 0.5 and 2°C,
regions of the UK has risen by between depending on region. By 2100, average summer temperature for the UK is expected to rise by
0.5 and 0.9°C since 1914. between 1 and 6°C, depending on region and emissions scenario (high confidence).
• Total summer precipitation has
• By 2100, there is expected to be up to 50% less precipitation in the summer months, depending
decreased in most parts of the UK,
typically by between 10 and 40% since on region and emissions scenario (medium confidence).
1961. • The number of days when buildings require cooling is expected to increase (high confidence).
Winters will continue to get milder and wetter…
• Average winter temperature for all • By 2040, average winter temperature for the UK is expected to rise by between 0.5 and 1°C,
regions of the UK has risen by up to depending on region. By 2100, average winter temperature for the UK is expected to rise by
0.7°C since 1914. between 1 and 4°C depending on region and emissions scenario (high confidence).
• Total winter precipitation has increased
• By 2100, there is expected to be up to 30% more precipitation in the winter months, depending
in almost all parts of the UK, typically
UKCIP02 headline messages v1_0.doc © UKCIP March 2007
 by up to 50% since 1961.
• The number of days with snow cover at
9am has decreased in all regions of the
UK by between 4 and 20% since 1961.
Some weather extremes will become more common, others less common…
• The average duration of summer
heatwaves has increased in all regions
of the UK by between 4 and 16 days
since 1961.
• The average duration of winter cold
snaps has decreased in all regions of the
UK by between 6 and 12 days since
1961.
• There has been a trend towards heavier
winter precipitation for most parts of the
UK since 1961.
Sea-level will continue to rise…
• Global average sea-level rose by
between 10 and 20 cm during the
twentieth century.
• Absolute sea-level has increased by
approximately 10 cm around the UK
coast during the same period, although
natural land movements mean there are
large regional differences in the actual
sea-level rise detected at different
coastal locations.
• The temperature of UK coastal waters
has increased by between 0.2 and
0.6°C per decade since 1985.
on region and emissions scenario (high confidence).
• Snowfall amounts are expected to decrease across the UK (high confidence), and large parts of
the country are expected to experience long runs of winters without snow (medium confidence).
• The number of days when buildings require heating is expected to decrease (high confidence).
• The number of very hot summer days is expected to increase, and high temperatures similar to
those experienced in August 2003 or July 2006 (>3°C above average) are expected to become
common by the end of this century, even under the Low Emissions scenario (medium confidence).
• The number of very cold winter days is expected to decrease, and low temperatures similar to
those experienced in February 1947 or January/February 1963 (>3°C below average) are
expected to become highly uncommon by the end of this century, even under the Low Emissions
scenario (medium confidence).
• Heavier winter precipitation is expected to become more frequent (high confidence).
• Winter storms and mild, wet and windy winter weather are expected to become more frequent
(low confidence).
• Global sea level is expected to continue to rise (high confidence), and by 2100 it could have risen
by as much as 80 cm around the UK coast, depending on region and emissions scenario (low
confidence).
• There is expected to be greater sea-level rise in the south of England than in western Scotland
due to variations in natural land movements (medium confidence).
• Extreme sea levels are expected to be experienced more frequently, and by 2100 storm surge
events could occur up to 20 times more frequently for some coastal locations and emissions
scenarios (medium confidence).
• The temperature of UK coastal waters is expected to increase, though not as rapidly as air
temperatures over land (high confidence).
For more details about the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios, visit www.ukcip.org.uk/scenarios
UKCIP02 headline messages v1_0.doc © UKCIP March 2007