Professional Documents
Culture Documents
June 1, 2016
Rating matrix
Rating : Sell SAIL (SAIL) | 42
Target : | 35
Target Period : 12 months
Potential Upside : -17%
Dismal performance continues…
What’s Changed? • SAIL reported a dismal set of Q4FY16 numbers wherein the EBITDA
Target Unchanged and bottomline came in notably lower than our estimate, primarily on
EPS FY17E Changed from | 2.8 to | 2.0
the back of subdued realisations and elevated operating costs
EPS FY18E Introduced at | 3.7
Rating Unchanged
• The company reported a net income from operations of | 11371.6
crore for the quarter, up 27.2% QoQ, down 1.8% YoY and higher
than our estimate of | 10400.1 crore. Sales volumes came in at ~3.8
Quarterly Performance
million tonnes (MT), higher than our estimate of 3.6 MT
Q4FY16 Q4FY15 YoY (%) Q3FY16 QoQ (%)
Revenue 11,371.6 11,585.1 -1.8 8,939.0 27.2
• The company reported an EBITDA loss of | 1123.5 crore, significantly
EBITDA -1,123.5 929.9 PL -1,381.5 -18.7 higher than our estimate of EBITDA loss of | 96 crore. Subsequently,
EBITDA (%) -9.9 8.0 (1790) bps -15.5 560 bps the EBITDA/tonne came in at negative | 2957/tonne (our estimate of
PAT -1,230.9 334.2 PL -1,528.7 -19.5 negative EBITDA/tonne of ~ | 300/tonne)
• Subsequent net loss came in at | 1230.9 crore, notably higher than
Key Financials our estimate of loss of | 781.0 crore
(| Crore) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Muted demand scenario to adversely impact capacity utilisation level…
Total Operating Inc. 45711 39086 47952 51560
EBITDA 4602 -3633 4916 6748 The steel sector is currently facing headwinds in the form of a muted
Net Profit 2092 -4137 827 1514 demand scenario both domestically as well as globally. For the current
EPS (|) 5.1 -10.0 2.0 3.7 fiscal year, domestic steel demand grew 4.3% YoY to 80.3 MT, primarily
driven by higher imports. The management has given a sales volume
Valuation summary guidance of ~14-15 MT for FY17E. We expect SAIL’s capacity utilisation
FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E to remain muted over the next couple of years considering moderate
PE (x) 8.3 NA 21.0 11.5 demand growth, threat of imports and capacity expansion by peer group
Target PE (x) 6.8 NA 17.2 9.4 companies such as Tata Steel and JSW Steel. We have modelled sales
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.7 NA 10.4 6.8 volume of 14 MT for FY17E and 15 MT for FY18E. For FY16, SAIL’s steel
P/BV (x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 saleable steel sales volumes were at 12.1 MT.
RoNW (%) 4.9 -10.0 2.1 3.8
Modelled EBITA/tonne of | 3500/tonne for FY17E, | 4500/tonne for FY18E
RoCE (%) 4.0 -7.9 3.4 5.2
Despite the company having access to captive iron ore, the operating
Stock data performance has been subdued due to higher operating costs. High
Particular Amount
operating costs coupled with declining realisations reduced the
Market Capitalisation | 17348.1 Crore EBITDA/tonne of the company from | 6560/tonne in FY11 to negative
Debt (FY16P) | 33217 Crore | 3002/tonne in FY16. Going forward, we expect benefit of MIP to flow in
Cash (FY16P) | 297.7 Crore Q1FY17. However, higher operating costs would cap the benefit. Going
EV | 50267.0 Crore forward, we have modelled EBITDA/tonne of | 3500/tonne for FY17E
52 week H/L | 67 / 33 (downward revised from | 3750/tonne earlier). The same has been
Equity capital | 4130.5 Crore introduced for FY18E at | 4500/tonne.
Face value | 10
Elevated cost structure; muted EBITDA/tonne; maintain SELL
Price performance (%) The company reported a muted performance on account of relatively
Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M higher operating costs. On account of headwinds, we have downward
JSW Steel 1.2 23.3 54.0 51.6 revised FY17E EBITDA estimates by 6.7% and introduced FY18E sales
SAIL -9.7 22.6 -6.3 -35.1 volume at 15 MT, EBITDA/tonne of FY18E at | 4500/tonne. We have
Tata Steel -4.8 34.2 45.6 1.8 valued the stock at 6x FY18E EV/EBITDA, given a 25% discount to the
company’s CWIP and arrived at a target price of | 35. We have a SELL
Research Analyst recommendation on the stock.
Dewang Sanghavi
dewang.sanghavi@icicisecurities.com
EBITDA -1,123.5 -96.0 929.9 PL -1,381.5 -18.7 The EBITDA loss came in higher than our estimate
EBITDA Margin (%) -9.9 -0.9 8.0 (1790) bps -15.5 560 bps The resulting EBITDA marrgin came in lower compared to our estimate
Depreciation 778.6 731.2 507.0 53.6 459.1 69.6 Depreciation expense came in higher than our estimate
Interest 612.1 572.9 426.9 43.4 524.2 16.8 Interest expense came in higher than our estimate
Exceptional Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA
PBT -2,340.9 -1,200.1 275.2 PL -2,260.3 3.6
Tax Outgo -1,109.8 -419.1 -59.0 1,781.0 -731.5 51.7
Reported PAT -1,230.9 -781.0 334.2 PL -1,528.7 -19.5 The PAT level losses enlarged compared to our estimates
Key Metrics
Sales Volume (MT) 3.8 3.6 3.2 18.8 2.9 31.0 The saleable steel volumes came in higher than our estimate
EBITDA/tonne (|/tonne) -2,957 -267 2,943 PL -4,764 -37.9 The EBITDA/tonne came in lower than our estimate
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Change in estimates
FY17E FY18E
(| Crore) Old New % Change New Comments
Total Operating Income 48329 47952 -0.8 51560 Marginally downward revised topline estimate for FY17E
EBITDA 5267 4916 -6.7 6748 Downward revised EBITDA estimate for FY17E
EBITDA Margin (%) 10.9 10.3 -65 bps 13.1
PAT 719 827 15.1 1514 PAT estimate revised upwards for FY17E
EPS (|) 1.7 2.0 15.1 3.7 EPS estimate revised upwards for FY17E
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Assumptions
Current Earlier Comments
FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E
Steel Sales Volume (MT) 11.7 12.1 14.0 15.0 12.5 14.0 Maintained sales volume estimate for FY17E
EBITDA/tonne (|/tonne) 3,929 -3,002 3,500 4,500 400 3,750 EBITDA/tonne revised downwards for FY17E
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 1: We model sales volume of 14 MT for FY17E, 15.0 MT for Exhibit 2: ..with EBITDA/tonne to turn positive
FY18E…
6000 5317
16.0
5000 4500
4200 3929
15.0 3750
15.0 4000
14.0 3000
14.0
2000
|/tonne
13.0 1000
MT
12.1 0
12.0 11.7
11.4 -1000 FY12 FY13 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E
11.1
11.0 -2000
-3000
10.0 -2750
FY12 FY13 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E -4000
(| Crore) FY18E
EBITDA 6748
Exp EV/EBITDA Multiple 6.0
Expected EV 40489
Add Cash 2600
Less Debt 31301
Add: FY18E CWIP (25% discount) 2472
Fair Value Market Cap (| crore) 14261
No. of Shares(Cr) 413.1
Target Price/Share (|) 35
300
250
200
150
100
Target Price: 35
50
0
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Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Key events
Date Event
May-10 The Government of India accords Maharatna status to the company
Mar-11 Coking coal price sky rockets touching highs of US$330/tonne on account of floods in Queensland (Australia )
Dec-11 Mines & Mineral (Development & Regulation) Bill introduced in parliament. Proposes payment of amount equivalent to royalty for development of the areas in which the
miners operate. Export duty increased to 30% iron ore exports from India
Mar-12 The company increases prices of long products on the back of strong demand on account of robust spending on infrastructure (highways) by the GoI. Coking coal spot
prices drop raising speculation over a drop in coking coal pricing contract when contracts come up for renewal next quarter
Sep-12 The company aims at a capex of | 12000 crore for FY13 as a part of its ongoing expansion & modernisation plan
Mar-13 GoI divests its 5.82% equity stake in SAIL via OFS. Floor price set at | 66 per share
Oct-13 The company increases prices of its steel products by ~ | 1500-2000/ tonne on account of increasing raw material costs (coking coal)
Nov-13 The company reports subdued quarterly results for Q2FY14. Reports decadal low EBITDA/tonne of | 2871/tonne
May-15 ArcelorMittal and SAIL signed a MoU on automotive steel joint venture in India
Mar-16 CARE Ratings downgraded credit rating from CARE AAA to CARE AA+ and reaffirmed the short term rating at CARE A1+
Apr-16 Fitch Ratings downgrade SAIL's credit rating from BBB- to BB
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Top 10 Shareholders Shareholding Pattern
Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m) (in %) Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
1 Government of India 31-Mar-16 0.75 3,097.8 0.0 Promoter 80.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0
2 Life Insurance Corporation of India 31-Dec-15 0.11 441.9 0.0 FII 5.7 6.2 6.0 6.1 5.6
3 LIC Nomura Mutual Fund Asset Management Company Ltd 31-Dec-15 0.01 51.1 0.0 DII 10.8 15.2 15.4 15.3 15.7
4 Capital International, Inc. 31-Dec-15 0.01 33.2 0.0 Others 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.8
5 The Vanguard Group, Inc. 31-Mar-16 0.01 28.3 0.8
6 ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. 31-Mar-16 0.01 26.8 0.0
7 APG Asset Management 30-Sep-15 0.00 14.3 -0.7
8 Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited 31-Dec-15 0.00 7.4 -0.8
9 Mellon Capital Management Corporation 31-Mar-16 0.00 6.9 0.2
10 Hirtle, Callaghan & Co., LLC 30-Sep-15 0.00 5.8 0.0
Recent Activity
Buys Sells
Investor name Value (m) Shares (m) Investor name Value (m) Shares (m)
The Vanguard Group, Inc. 0.5 0.8 The Boston Company Asset Management, LLC -1.5 -2.4
Mellon Capital Management Corporation 0.2 0.2 Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited -0.6 -0.8
Emerging Global Advisors, LLC 0.0 0.0 APG Asset Management -0.5 -0.7
MLC Investment Management Ltd. 0.0 0.0 Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Ltd. -0.1 -0.2
Goldman Sachs Asset Management (India) Private Ltd. 0.0 0.0 Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd. -0.1 -0.2
Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research
Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;
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