Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Statistics III
Master in Management
EXAM
26th October 2015, 7 pm
Duration: 1h30
INSTRUCTIONS
Write your name and student number on the first page of this assignment.
The answers to the questions should be written in the locations indicated in this
assignment.
Before starting the EXAM confirm that this assignment has 21 pages numbered 1 to
21.
At the end of this assignment you will find included some key equations and
statistical tables.
You must remain seated in your place by the end of the EXAM.
When the time expires please turn your EXAM over and wait for its collection made
by invigilators.
Today we are here, all together, in order to produce information to help the couple in
their decision =)
For each question in Groups I to III indicate only one answer in the table on page 9
Each correct answer is worth 0,70 values
Each wrong answer is worth 0.10 negative (-0.10).
Each answer blank or poorly marked is worth 0.
Group I
The Areas (X, m2) are different if you pick up apartments in Lisbon (center) or in
Linha do Estoril… was one of the first comments of the team.
The sample provided the following indicators:
50
1 50
x i 6500
i 1
(x i x) 2 400
49 i1
2. “I think we can state that the mean area of an apartment, despite the location
(Lisbon or Linha do Estoril), is at least 140 m2!” Pedro stated during the
meeting. “I do not know but I suspect that you are wrong! If you use a 95%
confidence level…” Vera commented. In order to find out who is right we
should
a) perform a Hypothesis test considering Ho:µ≥140 vs H1: µ<140
b) perform a Hypothesis test considering Ho:µ=140 vs H1: µ≠140
c) perform a Hypothesis test considering Ho:µ≤140 vs H1: µ>140
d) compute a confidence interval for the mean area (µ)
3. 10 minutes after the meeting has started Diogo, looking at the sample
indicators and some additional information about the distribution of the area,
said “a test was performed in order to find out if we can consider the area as
being Normally distributed and unfortunately p=0,0065 so we are in trouble
and cannot compute confidence intervals for the mean area!” This is
a) not true and the upper limit (with a 95% confidence level) is 135,5 m2
b) not true and the lower limit (with a 95% confidence level) is 125,4 m2
c) true because we cannot state that X ~ N
d) not true because we can state that X ~ N
4. “Let’s perform a test: Ho: µ=140 vs H1: µ≠140” Vera, as always very wise,
suggested “… using a 90% confidence level”. The difference between the two
critical values is … and the p-value is …
a) <9 / < 0,05
b) <9 / > 0,05
c) >9 / > 0,05
d) >9 / < 0,05
2. “With this analysis we are not able to see a possible difference between mean
Prices in Lisbon and Linha do Estoril” Vera stated, adding some seconds after
“for any usual level of confidence”
a) Vera is right because 1,522>0,05
b) Vera is right because p=0,224
c) Vera is not right
d) both a) and b)
3. “With a 95% confidence level we reject the Null hypothesis concerning the
factor Typology! I was right about the fact that T3 apartments are more
expensive than T2” Pedro said sometime after the snack around 10:45 am.
This is
a) correct: p=0,000000
b) not correct: no test has still been performed in order to reject Ho : T 2 T 3
c) not correct: p<0,05
d) correct: 16,97> aprox. 3
4.1. “I told you that Location (in this specific case) is not important to explain
Price variation” Vera said, and she is
a) wrong because the t statistic value is negative
b) right as p=0,5129
c) right as r-squared is close to 1
d) wrong as the estimate is -0,0854 < 0
4.2. Maximiliam helped us on finding that (ceteris paribus) for each additional
a) 10 m2 the Price of an apartment increases 35 thousands €
b) 10 m2 the Price of an apartment increases 3,5 thousands €
c) 100 m2 the Price of an apartment increases 3,5 thousands €
d) 1 m2 the Price of an apartment increases 35 thousands €
“In this case the sum of squared residuals (not explained) is 225591,4“ Pedro
commented when Vera and Diogo came back into the room.
5.1. Do you think that this model is significant?
a) of course: 11,33>0,05
b) of course: p=0,000000464
c) no way: p=4,64e-07
d) no: F=11,33> aprox. 3
5.2. This model explains aprox.
a) 75% of the initial Price sum of squares
b) 32% of the initial Price sum of squares
c) 56% of the initial Price sum of squares
d) none of the others
5.3. so it means that the Price variance is aprox.
a) 102,6
b) 10533
c) 18416
d) 3131
5.4. Adding the Areas variable to this model, r-squared improved significantly
(check 4.) and we found out (with a 95% confidence level) that
a) T0 and T1 apartments have different mean prices
b) T3 apartments have 3,5 times the area of a T0
c) Apartments located in Linha do Estoril are all Sea or River view
d) Sea or River view apartments, in average cost more 20 thousand € than
the others (if all the other variable values are the same)
1. If we are talking about the same level of Prices, we know that in Massamá the
apartments are better (in Areas and Typology) than in Linha do Estoril!
Based on
switch Lisboa by Massamá and modify the data in order to conclude that
Typology depends on the Location.
(show the new data, state the Null and Alternative Hypothesis, compute the test
statistics and conclude with a usual level of confidence)
2. We need to compute confidence intervals for the mean Price for two different
Typologies apartments in Linha do Estoril! We have 2 random samples of Prices for
the T0 (n=13) and T3 (n=34).
Explain what you would do in each case (assumptions, distributions, computations),
using examples.
x
f (x ) 1 or P(x ) 1
i i f (x)dx 1 F(x) f (x i )
xi x
F(x) f (x)dx
i i
EX x i f (x i ) EX x f (x) dx
i
2 E ( X ) 2 ( x i ) 2 f ( x i )
2 E (X 2 ) (x ) 2 f (x) dx
i
(1 )
X ~ N(; ) X ~ N(; ) P ~ N ( ; )
n n30 n n 30 n
2
z
n /2
ME
N2 N 1 ME2
n 2 n n0 2
X (N 1) 2 n0 (N 1) 1 z / 22
(n X 1)S2X (n Y 1)S2Y
Sp2
nX nY 2
nXPX nYPY
P0
nX n Y
𝑋~Bernoulli 𝑝(1 − 𝑝)
𝑝 ± 𝑧𝛼/2 √
Large sample 𝑛
Null
Assumption Test Statistic
Hypothesis
𝐻0 : X ~ a 𝑋 𝑖𝑠 a (or as a) 𝑘
(𝑂𝑏𝑠𝑖 −𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑖 )2
2 2
specified 𝐶𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝜒 =∑ ~𝜒(𝑘−1)
distribution 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑘 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑖
𝑖=1
𝑋 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑌 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑟 𝑐
𝐻0 : X and Y 𝐶𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 2
(𝑂𝑏𝑠𝑖𝑗 −𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑖𝑗 )2 2
𝜒 = ∑∑ ~𝜒((𝑟−1)(𝑐−1))
independent 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑐 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑖𝑗
𝑖=1 𝑗=1
respectively
nk
k
nk ( x i x ) 2
i 1
F k 1
𝐻0 : kn k h
~ Fk 1 ;(k 1 )(h1 )
µ1=µ2=…= µk (x x )
i1
i
2
nk ( x i x ) nh ( x i x )
i1
2
i1
2
(k 1)(h 1)
Xi ~ N (µi , ) h
nh ( x i x ) 2
i 1
𝐻0 :
F h1 ~ Fh1 ;(k 1 )(h1 )
µ1=µ2=…= µh kn k h
two-way (x x )
i1
i
2
nk ( x i x ) nh ( x i x )
i1
2
i1
2
(k 1)(h 1)
k
mnk ( x i x ) 2
i 1
F k 1 ~ Fk 1 ;hk(m1 )
kn k h
𝐻0 : (x x )
i 1
i
2
mnk ( x i x ) mnh ( x i x ) SSI
i 1
2
i1
2
µ1=µ2=…= µk
hk (m 1)
h
mnh ( x i x ) 2
i 1
F k 1 ~ Fh1 ;hk(m1 )
𝐻0 : kn k h
µ1=µ2=…= µh
Xi ~ N (µi , )
(x x )
i 1
i
2
mnk ( x i x ) mnh ( x i x ) SSI
i 1
2
i1
2
hk (m 1)
SSI
(k 1)(h 1)
F ~ F(k 1 )(h1 );hk(m1 )
𝐻0 : no kn k h
interaction (x x )
i 1
i
2
mnk ( x i x ) mnh ( x i x ) SSI
i1
2
i1
2
two-way with
hk (m 1)
interaction
h k
SSI m ( x ji x i x j x ) 2 , m-nº of observations per cell
j 1 i1
i 1
Distribution of bj: b j ~ N j , Var(b j ) , j=0, …, k.
0.8508
0,8
0,45 P[Z<1.04]=F(1.04)
P[Z < z]=xxxx
0,6
0,30
0,4
0,15
0,2
0,00 0,0
-3,50 -1,75 0,00 1,75 3,50 -3,50 -1,75 0,00 1,75 3,50
0,8
0,131
P[gl < q]=xxx
P[q12<23.337]=F(23.337)
0,6
0,087
0,4
0,044
0,2
0,000 0,0
0,00 6,25 12,50 18,75 25,00 0,00 6,25 12,50 18,75 25,00
gl \ xxx 0,005 0,010 0,025 0,050 0,100 0,250 0,500 0,750 0,900 0,950 0,975 0,990 0,995
1 0,000 0,000 0,001 0,004 0,016 0,102 0,455 1,323 2,706 3,841 5,024 6,635 7,879
2 0,010 0,020 0,051 0,103 0,211 0,575 1,386 2,773 4,605 5,991 7,378 9,210 10,597
3 0,072 0,115 0,216 0,352 0,584 1,213 2,366 4,108 6,251 7,815 9,348 11,345 12,838
4 0,207 0,297 0,484 0,711 1,064 1,923 3,357 5,385 7,779 9,488 11,143 13,277 14,860
5 0,412 0,554 0,831 1,145 1,610 2,675 4,351 6,626 9,236 11,070 12,832 15,086 16,750
6 0,676 0,872 1,237 1,635 2,204 3,455 5,348 7,841 10,645 12,592 14,449 16,812 18,548
7 0,989 1,239 1,690 2,167 2,833 4,255 6,346 9,037 12,017 14,067 16,013 18,475 20,278
8 1,344 1,647 2,180 2,733 3,490 5,071 7,344 10,219 13,362 15,507 17,535 20,090 21,955
9 1,735 2,088 2,700 3,325 4,168 5,899 8,343 11,389 14,684 16,919 19,023 21,666 23,589
10 2,156 2,558 3,247 3,940 4,865 6,737 9,342 12,549 15,987 18,307 20,483 23,209 25,188
11 2,603 3,053 3,816 4,575 5,578 7,584 10,341 13,701 17,275 19,675 21,920 24,725 26,757
12 3,074 3,571 4,404 5,226 6,304 8,438 11,340 14,845 18,549 21,026 23,337 26,217 28,300
13 3,565 4,107 5,009 5,892 7,041 9,299 12,340 15,984 19,812 22,362 24,736 27,688 29,819
14 4,075 4,660 5,629 6,571 7,790 10,165 13,339 17,117 21,064 23,685 26,119 29,141 31,319
15 4,601 5,229 6,262 7,261 8,547 11,037 14,339 18,245 22,307 24,996 27,488 30,578 32,801
16 5,142 5,812 6,908 7,962 9,312 11,912 15,338 19,369 23,542 26,296 28,845 32,000 34,267
17 5,697 6,408 7,564 8,672 10,085 12,792 16,338 20,489 24,769 27,587 30,191 33,409 35,718
18 6,265 7,015 8,231 9,390 10,865 13,675 17,338 21,605 25,989 28,869 31,526 34,805 37,156
19 6,844 7,633 8,907 10,117 11,651 14,562 18,338 22,718 27,204 30,144 32,852 36,191 38,582
20 7,434 8,260 9,591 10,851 12,443 15,452 19,337 23,828 28,412 31,410 34,170 37,566 39,997
21 8,034 8,897 10,283 11,591 13,240 16,344 20,337 24,935 29,615 32,671 35,479 38,932 41,401
22 8,643 9,542 10,982 12,338 14,041 17,240 21,337 26,039 30,813 33,924 36,781 40,289 42,796
23 9,260 10,196 11,689 13,091 14,848 18,137 22,337 27,141 32,007 35,172 38,076 41,638 44,181
24 9,886 10,856 12,401 13,848 15,659 19,037 23,337 28,241 33,196 36,415 39,364 42,980 45,558
25 10,520 11,524 13,120 14,611 16,473 19,939 24,337 29,339 34,382 37,652 40,646 44,314 46,928
26 11,160 12,198 13,844 15,379 17,292 20,843 25,336 30,435 35,563 38,885 41,923 45,642 48,290
27 11,808 12,878 14,573 16,151 18,114 21,749 26,336 31,528 36,741 40,113 43,195 46,963 49,645
28 12,461 13,565 15,308 16,928 18,939 22,657 27,336 32,620 37,916 41,337 44,461 48,278 50,994
29 13,121 14,256 16,047 17,708 19,768 23,567 28,336 33,711 39,087 42,557 45,722 49,588 52,335
30 13,787 14,953 16,791 18,493 20,599 24,478 29,336 34,800 40,256 43,773 46,979 50,892 53,672
40 20,707 22,164 24,433 26,509 29,051 33,660 39,335 45,616 51,805 55,758 59,342 63,691 66,766
60 35,534 37,485 40,482 43,188 46,459 52,294 59,335 66,981 74,397 79,082 83,298 88,379 91,952
0.95
P[t15<1.753]=F(1.753) 0,8
0,375
P[tgl < t]=xxx
0,6
0,250
0,4
0,125
0,2
0,000 0,0
-3,50 -1,75 0,00 1,75 3,50 -3,50 -1,75 0,00 1,75 3,50
gl \ xxx 0,999 0,995 0,990 0,975 0,950 0,900 0,850 0,800 0,700 0,600 0,500
1 318,3 63,656 31,821 12,706 6,314 3,078 1,963 1,376 0,727 0,325 0,000
2 22,328 9,925 6,965 4,303 2,920 1,886 1,386 1,061 0,617 0,289 0,000
3 10,214 5,841 4,541 3,182 2,353 1,638 1,250 0,978 0,584 0,277 0,000
4 7,173 4,604 3,747 2,776 2,132 1,533 1,190 0,941 0,569 0,271 0,000
5 5,894 4,032 3,365 2,571 2,015 1,476 1,156 0,920 0,559 0,267 0,000
6 5,208 3,707 3,143 2,447 1,943 1,440 1,134 0,906 0,553 0,265 0,000
7 4,785 3,499 2,998 2,365 1,895 1,415 1,119 0,896 0,549 0,263 0,000
8 4,501 3,355 2,896 2,306 1,860 1,397 1,108 0,889 0,546 0,262 0,000
9 4,297 3,250 2,821 2,262 1,833 1,383 1,100 0,883 0,543 0,261 0,000
10 4,144 3,169 2,764 2,228 1,812 1,372 1,093 0,879 0,542 0,260 0,000
11 4,025 3,106 2,718 2,201 1,796 1,363 1,088 0,876 0,540 0,260 0,000
12 3,930 3,055 2,681 2,179 1,782 1,356 1,083 0,873 0,539 0,259 0,000
13 3,852 3,012 2,650 2,160 1,771 1,350 1,079 0,870 0,538 0,259 0,000
14 3,787 2,977 2,624 2,145 1,761 1,345 1,076 0,868 0,537 0,258 0,000
15 3,733 2,947 2,602 2,131 1,753 1,341 1,074 0,866 0,536 0,258 0,000
16 3,686 2,921 2,583 2,120 1,746 1,337 1,071 0,865 0,535 0,258 0,000
17 3,646 2,898 2,567 2,110 1,740 1,333 1,069 0,863 0,534 0,257 0,000
18 3,610 2,878 2,552 2,101 1,734 1,330 1,067 0,862 0,534 0,257 0,000
19 3,579 2,861 2,539 2,093 1,729 1,328 1,066 0,861 0,533 0,257 0,000
20 3,552 2,845 2,528 2,086 1,725 1,325 1,064 0,860 0,533 0,257 0,000
21 3,527 2,831 2,518 2,080 1,721 1,323 1,063 0,859 0,532 0,257 0,000
22 3,505 2,819 2,508 2,074 1,717 1,321 1,061 0,858 0,532 0,256 0,000
23 3,485 2,807 2,500 2,069 1,714 1,319 1,060 0,858 0,532 0,256 0,000
24 3,467 2,797 2,492 2,064 1,711 1,318 1,059 0,857 0,531 0,256 0,000
25 3,450 2,787 2,485 2,060 1,708 1,316 1,058 0,856 0,531 0,256 0,000
26 3,435 2,779 2,479 2,056 1,706 1,315 1,058 0,856 0,531 0,256 0,000
27 3,421 2,771 2,473 2,052 1,703 1,314 1,057 0,855 0,531 0,256 0,000
28 3,408 2,763 2,467 2,048 1,701 1,313 1,056 0,855 0,530 0,256 0,000
29 3,396 2,756 2,462 2,045 1,699 1,311 1,055 0,854 0,530 0,256 0,000
30 3,385 2,750 2,457 2,042 1,697 1,310 1,055 0,854 0,530 0,256 0,000
40 3,307 2,704 2,423 2,021 1,684 1,303 1,050 0,851 0,529 0,255 0,000
60 3,232 2,660 2,390 2,000 1,671 1,296 1,045 0,848 0,527 0,254 0,000
120 3,160 2,617 2,358 1,980 1,658 1,289 1,041 0,845 0,526 0,254 0,000
3,090 2,576 2,326 1,960 1,645 1,282 1,036 0,842 0,524 0,253 0,000
0.95
0,8
1,125
0,750
0,4
0,375
0,2
0.95
0,000 0,0
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5