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Within the ebook, also all the necessary conditions are explained
because the two patterns can be used for trading. Many examples illustrated
step by step, make learning the strategy very simple.
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There are several graphical representations of the price of a
market. Likely the most used is the price bar. I prefer to use another system:
the candlestick.
Figure 1 - Candle-Line
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Candle-Line. It is formed by a central body called Real-Body, which indicates
the hike in price between the opening and closing, and the Shadows, lines that
represent the high and low prices of the chosen time frame and called
respectively Upper Shadow and Lower Shadow. As for the bar chart, we need
the opening, high, low, and close values.
The body of the candle can be black or white: you have a black
body when the close is below to open and then characterizes a day with a
negative trend, while a white body shows us a rise day with a closing price
above the opening. Technically, the body is not coloured in white, but is
simply blank, to facilitate the work of the computer.
This was one of the adaptations that has been used when exporting
the theory to the West, in fact the Japanese use red instead of white for the
bullish days. Today they are used in addition to the colours black and white
even green (bullish days) and red (bearish days).
At the end of the chart, finally, there is an alternation of green/red candles and
several candles with long shadows and small bodies. This is a typical signal
that the market does not have a precise direction and moves horizontally.
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Sometimes it means that the trend has ended and, the market soon will move
in the opposite direction.
Looking at the chart, you will also notice that the candles have
different length and shapes. Some of them have a specific name and they are
very important if inserted within a determinate graphics context. Here are the
main.
Long candle. It's a candle which has a long red or green body and
two very short shadows (Figure 3).
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Short candle. It is a candle that has a short green or red body and
two very short shadows (Figure 4).
Marubozu. They are long candles with green or red body with the
characteristic of being devoid of shadows (Figure 5).
Figure 5 - Marubozu
Spinning Top. It's a candle which has a very short body and
shadows very marked. They indicate a phase of indecision in the market, it
does not matter the colour of the body (Figure 6).
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7) where the shadows are very long. This particular Doji signals a strong
market indecision.
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The fourth type (Figure 10) finally, in cases where open, close, high
and low are at the same level (although obviously very rare, it would leave as
to thinking there are almost zero exchanges).
Figure 10 - Doji with open, close, high and low at the same level
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All markets have levels upward and downward in which they
struggling to overcome them and very often they indicate the end, at least for
the moment of the trend. These levels are called support and resistance and
they are very important to trade because they provide an indication where
you should take profit or where to open, after a significant bullish or bearish
signal, a trade. More precisely:
You can see how in the course of the sessions, Aud-Usd reaches
repeatedly 1.0575/1.0600 area and then it reverses is gait.
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Figure 11 - Aud-Usd, Daily chart with Resistance area
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From the weekly chart you have a clear confirmation of the
strength of 1.0575/1.0600 area and how the market, whenever reaches this
area, bounces or inverts its trend.
The same goes to support. In Figure 13 below you can see the daily
chart of Nzd/Chf with a support zone.
You can see how often, each time the pair reaches the
0.7550/0.7600 area, it can no longer continue its descent and inverts the trend.
Also, you should know that, in weekly chart (Figure 14 below) there is a greater
cleanliness and clarity in identifying the support zone.
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Figure 14 - Nzd-Chf, Weekly chart with Support area
During the uptrend, the blue lines show the phases of retracement
while when the market is in a downtrend, the retracements are highlighted by
black lines.
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Figure 15 – Gbp-Usd, Daily chart with Retracements
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The chocolate-coloured arrow indicates the candle which
accomplishes the breakout. Then after another three green bullish candle,
Gbp-Chf retraces down to test the old resistance level (now support) making a
pullback and resuming, then, the uptrend.
In the next chapter I will explain you step by step the strategy.
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The strategy I will explain is based on patterns "M" and "W" with
the help of the trendlines and Fibonacci levels. The strategy at first sight may
seem complex but that at the end of this chapter you will see it will be easy to
understand.
M" and "W" patterns, were described by John Bollinger in his book
"Trading with Bollinger bands". I use them in a slightly different way, as you
will see, on the breakdown of a line as input signal and two target areas
determined by Fibonacci projections, where taking profit.
Much easier to do than to say. I will show you the first example.
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In Figure 17, you can see above, is the reproduced daily chart of
Aud-Usd. Here, I marked with the letter X the high and with the letter A the
low of the last bearish leg.
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Then, I draw a trendline between the two points, as you can see it
in Figure 18.
After reaching the low, Aud-Usd bounces and with letter B I mark
the high of the retracement and, as I have done previously, I draw a trendline
between points A and B (Figure 19).
If the market will fall below the point A, I will cancel any analysis,
however, if it will form a higher low point (as in this case), I will mark with the
letter C that point and I will draw the usual trendline from B to C (Figure 20).
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To find the entry, I draw a line that from X point passes through B
point (as shown in Figure 21). I'm going to buy Aud-Usd after a closing above
the line. I usually buy at the opening the new candle.
After the red candle whose low forms the C point, there are three
consecutive green candles. The second is the one that closes above the line
dashed and gives me the input for entry long on Aud-Usd at, about, the open
price of the following candle.
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Now it's time to see another important aspect about the strategy,
the target. The retracement level of C point (respect to AB) is fundamental,
that gives me an indication of where to place my target (even though they are
two targets) based on the AB=CD pattern of Fibonacci.
Below in the Table 1 you can see all the targets based on the depth
of the retracement of C:
On the basis to the table, I get back to the example of Aud-Usd and
I calculate the C retracement (Figure 22).
To make the chart more readable, I inserted (and I will) only levels
that interest me. In this case, you can see that the C point has made a
retracement of 88.6% of AB.
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On the basis to the table, I identify my two targets to 1.13 times BC
and 2.13 times BC, and that you can see shown in the next chart in Figure 23.
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I love working with two targets. In this way, with the first target I
earn something from the movement in my favor and once the market has
reached it, I move the stop to breakeven. With the second target, I leave the
market free to run still a little more and I do not risk absolutely nothing.
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Now I will show you a new example, this time it's a double pattern;
before a “M” pattern and shortly after a “W” pattern. In Figure 24 you find the
chart already seen in the previous chapter of Gbp-Usd.
I mark low and high of the last bullish leg with the letters X and A.
Then, I draw the trendline that merges them, as shown in Figure 25 above.
After I await the end of the retracement, I mark its high with the
letter B and, same procedure above, I merge with a trendline A and B points
(Figure 26).
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Figure 24 – Gbp-Usd, Daily chart
First, I set the input level by pulling the trendline that from X
passes through B point (Figure 28). Then I insert the stop loss, initially, about
5-10 pips above the C point.
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The next red candle closes below the dotted line, it gives me the
input for selling Gbp-Usd. Now I have to calculate the retracement of C point
compared with AB to define two targets. Retracement that you can see in
chart in Figure 29 below.
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The retracement is 70.7% of AB. I check the table and I identify the
two targets at a distance from C point to 1.41 and 2,4 times BC (Figure 30
above). Continuing with Gbp-Usd, as usual, I mark the last bearish leg with the
letters X and A (Figure 31 below).
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After, I merge the X and A points with a trendline (Figure 32
above). Then, I mark with the letter B the end of the retracement and I merge
the A and B points with a trendline, like in Figure 33 below.
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I repeat the same procedure with the C point and I draw the
dotted line that starts from X and passes through B (Figure 34 above).
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Before continuing with the next example, it is time I show you the
conditions necessary for trading with these two patterns.
First thing: X point starts from the high (in a “W” pattern) or from
the low (in a “M” pattern) of the last retracement. You can see explained that
on the last example chart in Figure 37 below.
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higher high and a higher low than the preceding candle, or a combination of
candles (the number of candles no matter) creating both the higher high and
the higher low.
The B point: it must retrace the 50% or 61.8%. Neither more, nor
less. If you see in the three examples, B point has always retraced 50%,
although it is not drawn in charts.
Analyzing the chart, I have a low (A point), which is the lower lows
of the last 3 calendar weeks, so it is correct. B point retraces of 61.8% and so it
is correct.
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Figure 38 - Nzd-Usd, Daily chart
The C point that is not formed because it is above the low of the
candle forming the B point (blue dashed line inferior) and therefore is not a
full correction. This is a “W” pattern that I don't trade (even though Nzd-Usd
rises and reaches both targets).
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In Appendix A, at the end of the ebook, I have put all the
parameters and rules in a table so you always have an eye to see.
One more example before tackling the last aspect of the strategy,
which is the time frame.
You can see the Nzd-Jpy chart in Figure 39 above, with X and A
points marked and with the trendline that merges them.
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Figure 41 - Nzd-Jpy, Daily chart
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When the first target has been reached, you can decide to close
part of the position with the stop moved to breakeven, or just move the stop at
breakeven and letting run the market towards the second target with, maybe,
added a trailing stop strategy.
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In Figure 44 a “M” pattern in Eur-Aud chart.
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In Figure 46 a “M” pattern in Usd-Jpy chart.
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In Figure 48 a “M” pattern in Eur-Nzd chart.
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Although based on trendlines, the strategy relies on a concept that
others have already used before. It tries to exploit the typical movement of a
market when it reverses the trend in existence.
Some of you may have (re)seen the 1-2-3 high or low pattern by
Joe Ross in what I had previously explained. In fact Ross has done nothing,
except taking advantage of something that already existed. The Ross's pattern
is nothing more than wave 1, 2 and 3 (or wave A, B and C) by Elliott.
You have seen the strategy, and how I manage the trade. You have
seen where do I enter into market, where I insert the stop loss and where I
identify the target. However I did not mention about some aspects.
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you must always place the stop loss) and it explains the obvious: in trading
there are also loss-making trades.
I did not talk about trailing stop. Everyone is free to use their
favourite strategy, especially after the market reached the first target.
Remember always that all the platforms usually have the charts
with the bid price of a currency pair. This is okay if you sell a pair (or if you
insert a stop below a level) but if you buy it (or if you insert a stop above a
level), you are working with the ask and you always have to add to the bid that
you see in your platform the spread bid-ask. At the same, be careful when you
insert the target.
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THE SUMMARY TABLE WITH ALL PARAMETERS AND RULES:
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It must retrace 50% or 61.8% It must retrace 50% or 61.8%
of XA. It's formed after a full of XA. It's formed after a full
correction. Full correction correction. Full correction
means that as prices move means that as prices move
up from the potential B down from the potential B
point, there must be a single point, there must be a single
B candle that makes both a candle that makes both a
higher high and a higher low higher high and a higher low
than the preceding candle or than the preceding candle or
a combination of candles a combination of candles
(the number no matter) (the number no matter)
creating both the higher high creating both the lower low
and the higher low. and the lower high.
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THE SUMMARY TABLE WITH ALL POSSIBLE TARGETS:
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Leonardo Pisano, said Fibonacci (in Latin Filis Bonacci, son of
Bonacci), was born in Pisa around 1170. His father was Secretary of the
Republic of Pisa and since 1192 trade manager at the colony of Bugia, in
Algeria. A few years after 1192, Bonacci took his son with him to Bugia.
Here he also had contact with the world of the early merchants
and learned mathematical techniques unknown in the West. Some of these
procedures had been introduced for the first time by the Indians, carriers of a
culture very different from that of the Mediterranean. Just to refine these,
Fibonacci traveled extensively, arriving at Constantinople, alternating
business with mathematical studies.
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Moreover, dividing one number to the next (i.e. 34/55), the result
tends to 0.618. If we divide a number by the second later (i.e. 34/89), the result
tends to 0.328. If we divide a number by the previous (i.e. 144/89), the result
tends to 1.618 and is also called golden ratio. If we divide a number by the
second preceding it (i.e. 144/55), the result tends to 2.618.
All numbers that you have already seen inside this ebook. To keep
this short story on Fibonacci and his sequence simple, I don't explain how to
get the other levels such as 0.5, 0.707, 0.786, 0.886 etc.
We find the numbers of the Fibonacci sequence and the gold ratio
everywhere.
In music: the piano, the 13 keys of the octaves are divided into 8
white and 5 black, each of which divided into groups of 2 and 3 keys each; 2, 3,
5, 8, 13 all numbers belong to the Fibonacci sequence.
In the violins, the arch that forms the base has its centre of
curvature at a distance of 61.8% of the total length of the instrument. But also
in some musical compositions such as "33 variations on a waltz by Diabelli" by
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Beethoven, which divided his composition into parts corresponding to the
Fibonacci sequence numbers, which ratio corresponds to golden ratio, and the
"Fugues"of Bach.
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In architecture: in Greek civilization we find the use of the golden
ratio in the Parthenon in Athens, the Temple of Athena at Paestum, in the
statues of Phidias, to name only the best known works.
In other words, if you multiply, for example, the distance from the
foot to the navel of a person for 1.618 you find the height of that person. Or if
you divide the distance from the elbow to the hand for the distance from the
elbow to shoulder you get 1.618, the golden ratio.
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In several objects we use every day, like the credit card or the sim
card in your smartphone, and even in "mysterious" crop circles, we find in the
golden ratio.
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