Case study: Producing up-to-date

Communities and Local household estimates and

Government projections to inform policies

Household projections are a key part of the evidence

base on housing requirements used by Communities
and Local Government (CLG), Regional Assemblies
and Local Authorities in planning for future housing
demand. Produced by Experian for CLG and linked to
the latest Office for National Statistics Sub National
Population Projections, the projections indicate the
number of additional households that would form if recent
demographic trends continue.

Requirement confident of delivery ahead of the

CLG is the government department
responsible for setting policy in
England on local government, housing,
urban regeneration and planning.
As such CLG require up to date
household estimates and projections
that take into account the latest
“These household household formation and demographic
changes to inform policy.
estimates and
projections form the Solution
basis for a raft of policy Experian’s approach provided updated
estimates and projections compiled to
not only for CLG but an agreed transparent methodology,
across government. whilst ensuring CLG and an expert
steering group were fully involved
The transparency of throughout the process.
methodology, accuracy
Implementation
and timeliness are vital The household projections are classed
– something that the as National Statistics and as such
Experian team are able must be released by a pre-determined
publication date. Having previously
to consistently deliver.” worked on the Options for the
Future of the Household Projections
Allan Cox Model review, and given the relevant
CLG Project Manager expertise of the team, Experian were
milestones required to meet National
Statistics criteria.
The project required running
hierarchical controlling procedures to
generate the household projections.
The controlling procedure is not
entirely straightforward as it involves
a set of non-linear constraints, for
example marital status and household
representative rates. Experian had the
software techniques and knowledge
base in place to allow us to do this.
Along with an access database
containing the datasets and a
scenario tool, Experian also produced
methodological and summary reports
on the datasets outlining key trends
and exploring the drivers of household
growth.
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Results
The 2006-based household projections
show an annual rate of growth in
England from 2006 to 2031 of 252,000
households. Key issues highlighted
include the increasing importance of
migration as a driver of population
change, the ageing population and
changing household formation
patterns.
CLG has also recently commissioned
Experian to assess the potential
impact of recommended changes to
the projections methodology.
2006-based annual average percentage change in Households, 2006 - 2026
Contact us:
Richard Dennis
Managing Economist
T 44 (0207) 746 8231
richard.dennis@uk.experian .com
160 Dundee Street
Edinburgh
EH11 1DQ
T 44 (0) 131 228 8030
F 44 (0) 131 228 8040
The final outputs from this new project
will be clear recommendations for
what changes to the current approach
should be adopted for the 2008-based
set of projections.
The 2006-based projections and
reports have been published by CLG
and can be found on their website at:
http://www.communities.gov.
uk/housing/housingresearch/
housingstatistics/housingstatisticsby/
householdestimates/
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