Chapter-35
Probability
Introduction
Historically, probability theory began with the study
of games of chance, such as roulette and cards.
Apart from games, uncertainty prevails in business
and other aspects of life.
“Probabilit y is a concept which numerically
measures the degree of uncertainty and therefore
of certainty of the occurrence of events.”
Before defining probability, we shall give certain
concepts used therein.
Experiment
An operation which can produce some well-defined
outcomes, is known as an experiment.
When we perform an experiment in science or
engineering and repeat the same under identical
conditions, we get almost the same result every
time.
But, t her e ar e exper iment s, which when
repeated under identical conditions, do not produce
the same outcome every time. For example, if we
toss a fair coin, we may get a head or a tail. Now,
if we make further trials, ie, toss the coin again
and again the outcome of each trial depends on
chance and it is not the same each time. Sometimes
the head appear and sometimes the tail.
Random Experiment
If in each trial of an experiment conducted under
identical conditions, the outcome is not unique,
but may be any of the possible outcomes then such
an experiment is known as a random experiment.
In a random experiment, the outcome of each
tr ial depends on chance which is beyond our
control and as such it cannot be predicted with
certainty.
For example, tossing a fair coin; rolling an
unbiased die; drawing card from a well-shuffled
pack of cards; picking up a ball of certain colour
from a bag containing balls different colours are
all examples of random experiments.
When we throw a coin, then either a Head (H)
or a Tall (T) appears.
A die is a solid cube, having 6 faces, marked 1,
2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 respectively. In throwing a die,
the outcome is the number that appears on the
uppermost face. The plural of die is dice.
A pack of cards has 52 cards. It has 13 cards of
each suit, namely Spades, Clubs, Hearts and
Diamonds. Cards of spades and clubs are black
cards. Cards of hearts and diamonds are red cards.
There are 4 honours of each suit. These are Aces,
Kings, Queens and Jacks. These are called face
cards.
Sample Space
The set of all possible outcomes in a r andom
experiment is called a sample space and it is
generally denoted by S.
Each element of a sample space is called a
sample point.
Ex. 1: In t ossing a fair coin, t her e ar e t wo
possible outcomes, namely head (H) and
t ail (T). So, t he sample space in t his
experiment is given by S = {H, T}
Ex. 2: When we throw a die it can result in any
of the six numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. So the
sample space is given by
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Ex. 3: When two coins are tossed together, the
sample space is
S = {HT, TH, HH, TT}
Here HT shows the head on the first coin
and t ail on t he second. Similarly, TH
stands for tail on the first one and head
on the second; HH means head on each
and TT means tail on each.
Ex. 4: From a group of 3 boys and 2 girls we
select two children. What would be the
sample space of this experiment? If we
denote the boys as B1, B2, B3 and the girls
as G 1, G 2 ; then the sample space is
described as
S = { (B1, B2), (B1, B3), (B1, G1), (B1, G2),
(B2, B 3), (B 2, G 1), (B2, G2), (B3, G1),
(B3, G2), (G1, G2)}
Ex. 5: A coin is tossed twice, if the second throw
results in a tail, then a die is thrown.
Describe the sample space.
Clearly, the sample space is given by
S = {HH, TH, HT1, HT2, HT3, HT4, HT5,
HT6, TT1, TT2, TT3, TT4, TT5, TT6}
Ex. 6: In a simultaneous toss of a die and a coin,
the sample space is
S = {(1, H), (2, H), (3, H), (4, H), (5, H), (6, H),
(1, T), (2, T), (3, T), (4, T), (5, T), (6, T)}
674
Important Point
If we have a random experiment with m outcomes
x1, x2, x3, ...., xm and another with n outcomes y1,
y 2, y 3 , . . . ., y n ; then t he sample space of t he
experiment which consists of carrying out the two
experiments together has (mn) outcomes. The
sample space is {(xi, yi); 1  i  m and 1  i  n}.
Ex. 7: In a simult aneous throw of two dice,
following are the possible (6 × 6 =) 36
outcomes.
{ (1, 1), (2, 1), (3, 1), (4, 1), (5, 1), (6, 1)
(1, 2), (2, 2), (3, 2), (4, 2), (5, 2), (6, 2)
(1, 3), (2, 3), (3, 3), (4, 3), (5, 3), (6, 3)
(1, 4), (2, 4), (3, 4), (4, 4), (5, 4), (6, 4)
(1, 5), (2, 5), (3, 5), (4, 5), (5, 5), (6, 5)
(1, 6), (2, 6), (3, 6), (4, 6), (5, 6), (6, 6)}
Events
Any subset of a sample space is called an event.
For example, in a single throw of a die, the
event of getting a prime number is given by,
E = {2, 3, 5}
Clearly, the sample space, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Evidently, E  S
Impossible Event and Sure Event
Let S be a sample space, since   S, so  is an
K KUNDAN
event, called an impossible event. Since S  S,
so S is an event, called a sure event.
For example, in the throw of a die, sample space
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Let E1 = event of getting a number less than 1.
And E2 = event of getting a number less than 7.
Clearly, no outcome can be a number less than 1.
So, E 1 is an impossible event. Clear ly, each
outcome is a number less than 7. So, E2 is a sure
event.
Elementary and Composite Events
An event containing only a single sample point is
called an elementary or simple event.
Ev ent s ot her t han element ar y ar e called
composite or compound or mixed events.
For example, in a simultanoues toss of two
coins, the sample space is,
S = {HT, TH, HH, TT}
Then, the event E1 = {TT} of getting both the
t ails is a simple ev ent . Also, t he ev ent
E2 = {HT, TH, TT} of getting at least one tail is a
compound event.
Occurrence of an Event
In a random experiment, let S be the sample space
and E  S, so that E is an event.
Let  be an outcome of a trial.
Concept of Arithmetic
If   E, we say that the event E has occurred.
If   E, we say that the event E has not occurred.
For example, if we throw a die, then
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Let E be the event of getting an even number,
then
E = {2, 4, 6}.
Now, in a trial, let the outcome be 2. Since
2  E, so in this trial, the event E has occurred.
In another trial, let the outcome be 5. Since
5 E, so in this trial, the event E has not occurred.
Equally Likely Events
The given events are said to be equally likely, if
none of them is expected to occur in preference to
the other.
For example, if we roll an unbiased die, each
outcome is equally likely to happen.
However, the die is so formed that a particular
face occurs most often, then the die is biased. So,
in this case, the outcomes are not equally likely to
happen.
Complementary Event
In a random experiment, let S be the sample space
and let E be an event. Then E  S. Clearly, Ec  S.
So, Ec is also an event, called the complement of
E. Sometimes we denote Ec by E or E. We call the
event E as not-E. Clearly, E occurs when E does
not occur. Also, E occurs when E does not occur.
Clearly, the events E and ‘not-E’ are such that
only one of them can occur in a trial and at least
one of them must occur.
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events E 1 and E 2 are said to be mutually
exclusive, if E 1  E 2 = . In other words, such
events where the occurrence of one precludes the
occur rence of t he ot her , ar e called mut ually
exclusive events.
The events which are not mutually exclusive
are known as compatible events.
Ex. 8: In throwing a die, we have S = {1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6}
Let E1 = event of getting a number less
than 3.
And E2 = event of getting a number less
than 4.
Then, E1 = {1, 2} and E2 = {5, 6}
Clearly, E1  E2 = 
So, E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive.
Ex. 9: Let us consider a simultaneous toss of two
coins.
Then S = {HT, TH, HH, TT}
Probability
Let E1 = event of getting heads on first
coin = {HH, HT}
And E2 = event of getting tails on second
coin = {HT, TT}
Clearly, E1  E2  
So, E1 and E2 are compatible events.
Mutually Exclusive and Exhaustive
System of Events
We say that the subsets E1, E2, E3, ... Ek of a sample
space S form a mutually exclusive and exhaustive
system of events, if
(i) Ei  Ej = ; for i  j and
(ii) E1  E2  ...  Ek = S
For example, consider t he exper iment of
drawing a card from a well-shuffled pack of 52
cards. Let E1, E2, E3 and E4 be the events, ‘card
drawn is spades’, ‘card drawn is clubs’, ‘card drawn
is heart s’ and ‘card dr awn is diamonds’
respectively.
As the card drawn is necessarily one of the
four types, so one of these events surely occurs.
Clearly, if one of these events occurs, the others
cannot occur. So, E1, E2, E3 and E4 form a mutually
exclusive and exhaustive system of events.
Independent Events
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Two events are said to be independent, if the
occurr ence of one does not depend upon the
occurrence of the other.
The event s which are not independent ar e
known as dependent events.
Suppose we toss to unbiased coins.
Let E1 = event of occurrence of head on first
coin.
And E2 = event of occurrence of head on second
coin.
Clearly, the occurrence of head on second coin
does not depend upon the occurrence of head on
first coin. So E1 and E2 are independent events.
Algebra of Events
In a random experiment, let the sample space be
S. Let E  S and F S. Then, E as well as F is an
event.
We say that
(i) (E  F) is an event that occurs only when
each one of E and F occurs ie it denotes
the event of simultaneous occurrence of both
the events E and F.
(ii) (E  F) is an event that occurs only when E
occurs or F occurs or both occur.
ie it denotes the events of occurrence of at
least one of the events E and F.
(iii) (E – F) denotes the occurrence of event E
but not F.
675
Probability of an Event
Suppose a bag contains 90 red balls and 10 white
balls, which are similar in shape and size. If the
balls are thoroughly mixed and then one ball is
drawn at random, it will be either red or white
because number of red balls is more than the white
balls in the bag. Clearly, the ball drawn is more
likely to be red than white. We express it by saying
that the event of drawing a red ball has more
probability than the event of drawing a white ball.
To ev ery event associat ed wit h a r andom
experiment we try to attach a numerical value
called its probability in such a manner that for
any two events, the event which is more likely to
happen has a higher value for the probability.
In a random experiment, let s be a sample space
and let E  S. Then, E is an event.
The probability of occurrence of the event E is
defined as
Number of outcomes favourable
to occurence of E
P(E) =
Number of all possible outcomes
Number of distinct elements in E
= Number of distinct elements in S
n (E)
= n (S)
Odds in Favour of an Event and Odds
Against an Event
If the number of ways in which an event can occur
be m and the number of ways in which it does not
occur be n, then
m
(i) odds in favour of the event = and
n
n
(ii) odds against the event = .
m
Important Results on Probability
I. In a random experiment, if S is the sample
space, and E is an event, then
(i) P(E)  0; ie probability of occurrence of
an event is always non-negative.
(ii) P() = 0; ie probability of occurrence of an
impossible event is 0.
(iii) P(S) = 1; ie probability of occurrence of a
sure event is 1.
II. If E and F are mutually exclusive events, then
(i) P(E  F) = 0 and
(ii) P(E  F) = P(E) + P(F)
Note: (a) For mutually exclusive events E
and F, we have
P(E or F) = P(E  F) = P(E) + P(F)
676 Concept of Arithmetic

(b) If E 1, E 2, . . . , E k are mut ually Soln: Clearly, the sample space is

exclusive events, then S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT,
P(E1  E2 E3  ...  Ek) HTT, TTT}
Let E1, E2, E3, E4 and E5 be the events of
= P(E1) + P(E2) + P(E3) + ... + P(Ek)
getting all heads; two heads; one head; at
III. If E and F are two mutually exclusive and least one head and at least two heads
exhaustive events, then P(E) + P(F) = 1. respectively.
IV. Let E be any event and E be its complementary Th en , E 1 = {HHH}
E 2 = {HHT, HTH, THH}
event, then P( E ) = 1 – P(E) E 3 = {HTT, THT, TTH}
V. If E is an event associated with a random E 4 = {HTT, THT, TTH, HHT,
experiment then 0  P(E)  1. HTH, THH, HHH} and
E 5 = {HHT, HTH, HHH}
Ex. 10: Find the probability of getting a head
in a throw of a coin. n (E1 ) 1 n (E 2 ) 3
 P(E1) =  ; P(E ) =  ;
Soln: Here, sample space, S = {H, T} n (S) 8 2 n (S) 8
Event of getting heads, E = {H}
Clearly, n(S) = 2 and n(E) = 1 n (E 3 ) 3 n (E 4 ) 7
 Probability of getting a head is given by P(E3) =  ; P(E ) =  ;
n (S) 8 4 n (S) 8
n (E) 1
P(E) = n (S)  2 n (E5 ) 4 1
and P(E5) =  
n (S) 8 2
Ex. 11: In a simultaneous throw of two dice,
find the probability of getting a total Ex. 14: What is the probability that a number
of 7. selected from the numbers 1, 2, 3, ...,
Soln: We know that in a throw of two dice the 24, 25, is a prime number, when each
total number of possible outcomes is (6 × of the given numbers is equally likely
6 =) 36. to be selected?
Thus, if S is the sample space, then n(s) Soln: Sample space, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, ... 24, 25}

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= 36 Let E be the event of selecting a prime
Let E be the event of getting a total of 7. number
Then, E = {(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), Then, E = {2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23}
(6, 1)} n (E) 9
Thus, n(E) = 6  P(E) = n (S)  25
n (E) 6 1 Ex. 15: Ti ckets numbered from 1 t o 20 are
 P(a total of 7) = n (S)  36  6
mixed up together and then a ticket is
Ex. 12: A coi n is tossed successi v el y three drawn at random . What i s the
times. Find the probability of getting probabi l i ty t hat the ti cket has a
exactly one head or two heads. number which is a multiple of 3 or 7?
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then, Soln: Clearly, the sample space S has 20 points.
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, Let E be the event of getting a multiple of
HTT, TTT} 3 or 7.
Let E be the event of getting exactly one Then E = {3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 7, 14}
head or exactly two heads.  P(a multiple of 3 or 7)
Then, E = {HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, n (E) 8 2
TTH} = P(E) = n (S)  20  5
Clearly, n(E) = 6 and n(S) = 8
Ex. 16: One card is drawn from a pack of 52
n (E) 6 3 car ds, each of t he 52 car ds bei ng
 P(E) = n (S)  8  4
equally likely to be drawn. Find the
Ex. 13: Three unbiased coins are tossed. What probability that
is the probability of getting (i) the card drawn is red;
(i) all heads (ii) the card drawn is king;
(ii) two heads (iii) the card drawn is red and a king;
(iii) one head (iv) the card drawn is either red or a
(iv) at least one head king.
(v) at least two heads? Soln: Let S denote the sample space. Then n(S)
= 52
(i) Let E1 be the event of drawing a red card.
Probability 677

Since the number of red cards is 26, we Ex. 19: A bag contains 8 red and 5 white balls.
have n(E1) = 26 Three balls are drawn at random. Find
the probability that
n (E1 ) 26 1
 P(a red card) = P(E1) =   (i) all the three balls are white;
n (S) 52 2 (ii) all the three balls are red;
(ii) Let E2 be the event of drawing a king. (iii) one ball is red and two balls are
Since the number of kings is 4, we have white.
n(E2) = 4 Soln: Total number of balls = (8 + 5) = 13
Let S be the sample space. Then
n (E 2 ) 4 1
 P(a king) = P(E2) =   n(S) = number of ways of select ing 3
n (S) 52 13 balls out of 13
(iii) Let E3 be the event of drawing a red card 13! 13  12  11
which is a king. Since the number of red = 13
C3 = (13  3)!3!  3  2  1 = 286
kings is 2, we have n(E3) = 2
(i) Let E1 be the event of getting 3 white balls.
n (E3 ) 2 1 Th en ,
 P(a red king) = P(E3) =  
n (S) 52 26 n(E1) = number of ways of selecting 3 balls
(iv) Let E4 be the event of drawing a red card out of 5
or a king. 5! 54
Clearly, there are 26 red cards (including = C3 = (5  3)!3!  2
5
= 10
2 red kings) and there are 2 more kings.
Thus, n(E4) = (26 + 2 =) 28  P(getting 3 white balls)
 P(a red card or a king) n (E1 ) 10 5
n (E 4 ) 28 7 = n (S)  286  143
= P(E4) = n (S)  52  13
(ii) Let E2 be the event of getting 3 red balls.
Ex. 17: What is the probability that a leap year Th en ,
n(E2) = Number of ways of selecting

K KUNDAN
select ed at r andom wi ll cont ain 53
Sundays? 3 balls out of 8
Soln: A leap year cont ains 366 days and 8! 876
therefore 52 weeks and 2 days. Clearly, = 8C3 = (8 - 3)!3!  3  2 = 56
there are 52 Sundays in 52 weeks.
For the remaining 2 days, they may be:  P (getting 3 red balls)
(i) Sunday and Monday
n (E2 ) 56 28
(ii) Monday and Tuesday =  
(iii) Tuesday and Wednesday n (S) 286 143
(iv) Wednesday and Thursday (iii) Let E3 be the event of getting 1 red and 2
(v) Thursday and Friday white balls.
(vi) Friday and Saturday Th en ,
(vii) Saturday and Sunday n(E3) = (number of ways of selecting 1 ball
Now, for having 53 Sundays in the year, out of 8) × (number of ways of
one of the above 2 days must be Sunday. selecting 2 balls out of 5)
Thus, out of the above 7 possibilities, 2 = 8C1 × 5C2 = 8 × 10 = 80
favour the event that one of the two days  P(getting 1 red and 2 white balls)
is a Sunday.
n (E3 ) 80 40
2 =  
 required probability = n (S) 286 143
7
Ex. 18: A bag contains 9 black and 12 white Ex. 20: Two cards are drawn at random from
balls. One ball is drawn at random. a pack of 52 car ds. What i s t he
What is the probability that the ball probability that the drawn cards are
drawn is black? both aces?
Soln: Total number of balls = (9 + 12 =) 21 Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then,
Thus, if S is the sample space, then n(S) n(S) = number of ways of select ing 2
= 21C1 = 21 cards out of 52
And, if E is the event of getting a black
52! 52  51
ball, then n(E) = 9C1 = 9 = 52
C2 = (52  2)!2!  = 1326
2
n (E) 9 3
 P(getting a black ball) = n (S)  21  7 Let E be the event of getting both the aces.
Th en ,
678 Concept of Arithmetic

n(E) = number of ways of selecting aces Hence,

out of 4
Number of cases favourable to E
4! 43 P(E) =
Total number of outcomes
= 4
C2 = (4  2)!2!  2 = 6
3
 P(both aces) =
8
n (E ) 6 1 Ex. 23: Three dice are thrown together. Find
= P(E) = n (S)  1326  221
the probability of getting a total of at
Ex. 21: In a lottery of 50 tickets numbered 1 to least 6.
50, t wo t ickets are drawn Soln: Since the three dice are thrown, the total
simultaneously. Find the probability number of points in the sample space (S)
that is (6 × 6 × 6 =) 216.
(i) both the tickets drawn have prime Let E = event of getting a total of at least
numbers; 6.
(ii) none of the tickets drawn has prime Then, E = event of getting a total of less
numbers. than 6 ie 3 or 4 or 5
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then,
n(S) = number of ways of select ing 2  E = {(1, 1, 1), (1, 1, 2), (1, 2, 1), (2, 1, 1),
numbers out of 50 (1, 1, 3), (1, 3, 1), (3, 1, 1), (1, 2, 2),
(2, 1, 2), (2, 2, 1)}
50! 50  49
= C2 = (50  2)!2! 
50
2 = 1225  n( E ) = 10

(i) Prime numbers between 1 to 50 are: n (E ) 10

So, P(not E) = P( E ) = 
2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, 37, n (S) 216
41, 43, 47  P(E) = 1 – P(not E)
Their number is 15.
 20  206 103
Let E be the event of getting both prime = 1   

K KUNDAN
numbers  216  216 108
Then, n(E) = number of ways of selecting Ex. 24: Six dice are thrown simultaneously.
2 numbers out of 15. Find the probability that
(i) all of them show the same face.
15! 15  14
= 15
C2 = (15  2)!2!  = 105 (ii) all of them show different faces.
2 (iii) Exactly thr ee of them show the
 P(getting both prime) sam e face and r em aining t hree
show different faces.
n (E ) 105 21
= P(E) = n (S)  1225  245 (iv) at least four of them show the
same face.
(ii) Number of non-primes from 1 to 50 Soln: Since the 6 dice are thrown, the total
= (50 – 15) = 35 number of points in the sample space (S)
Let F be the event of getting both non- is 6 × 6 × 6 × 6 × 6 × 6 = 66
prime numbers. (i) Let E1 = event of getting all dice having
Then, n(F) = number of ways of selecting the same face.
2 numbers out of 35. Here, all dice show the same face means
we are getting same number on all six
35! 35  34 dice.
= 35
C2 = (35  2)!2!  2 = 595
Then, n(E1) = number of ways of selecting
 P(getting both non-prime) 1 number out of 6 = 6C1
 P(getting all the dice having the same
n (F ) 595 11
= P(F) = n (S)  1225  35 n (E1 ) 6 C1 6 1
face) =  6  6  5
n (S) 6 6 6
Ex. 22: The odds in favour of an event are 3 : (ii) Let E2 = event of getting all dice showing
5. Find the probability of occurrence of different faces
this event. Then, n(E 2) = t he tot al number of
Soln: Let E be the event. arrangements of 6 numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
Then, the number of cases: 6 by taking all at a time
(i) favourable to occurrence of E = 3
(ii) against the occurrence of E = 5 6!
 total number of outcomes = 8 = 6P6 = (6  6)! = 6!
Probability 679

 P(getting all the dice having different

n (E 4 )
n (E 2 ) 6!  required probability = n (S )
faces) = n (S)  6
6
(iii) Let E3 = event of getting three of the dice 6 5 6!   6 5 6!  6
 C1  C2     C1  C1    C1
showing same face and remaining three =  4!   5!
showing different faces 66
Then n(E 3) = The number of ways in
Ex. 25: The digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9
which three dice show the same face and
are written in random order to form a
the remaining three show distinct faces
nine-digit number. Find the probability
6! that this number is divisible by 4.
= 6C1 × 5C3 × Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then
3!
n(S) = number of arrangements of the given
[Select a number which occurs on three
numbers taken all at a time
dice out of 6 numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
= 9P9 = 9!
This can be done in 6C1 ways. Now select
Let E = event of getting nine-digit numbers
three numbers out of the remaining 5
divisible by 4.
numbers. This can be done in 5C3 ways.
Out of the these 9! numbers only those
Now we have 6 numbers like 1, 2, 3, 4, 4,
numbers are divisible by 4 which have
4; 2, 3, 6, 1, 1, 1 et c. These can be
their last digits as even natural number
6! and the numbers formed by their last two
arranged in ways. Hence the number digits are divisible by 4.
3!
of ways in which three dice show the The various possibilities of last two digits
same face and the remaining three show are 12, 32, 52, 72, 92, 24, 64, 84, 16, 36,
distinct faces, by fundamental principle 56, 76, 96, 28, 48, 68.
This means t hat t here ar e 16 ways of
6 5 6!  choosing the last two digits. Corresponding
of multiplication, is  C1  C3  

K KUNDAN
 3!  to each of these ways the remaining 7 digits
 required probability can be arranged in 7P7 = 7! ways.
Therefore, the total number of nine-digit
6 6! numbers divisible by 4 is 16 × 7!
C1  5C3 
n (E 3 ) 3!  n(E) = 16 × 7!
= n (S) 
66 16  7! 2
 required probability = 
(iv) Let E4 = event of getting at least 4 of the 9! 9
dice having the same face. Ex. 26: A four-digit number is formed with the
Now, at least four of them show the same digits 1, 3, 4, 5 with no repetition. Find
face means t he chance t hat ( i) t he num ber i s
(a) Four dice show the same f ace and divisible by 5 and (ii) the number is odd.
remaining 2 show distinct faces. This Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then
n(S) = the total number of ways in which
can be done in 6 C1  5C2  64!! ways. four-digit number can be formed is 4P4
= 4! = 24
(b) Fiv e dice show t he same f ace and (i) Let E1 = event of getting numbers divisible
remaining one shows a different face. by 5.
The number is divisible by 5 if its unit’s
This can be done in 6 C1  5C1  65!! place is 5. Therefore, unit’s place can be
filled in 1 way, the remaining 3 places
ways.
can be filled with other three digits in
(c) All the six dice show same face. This
(3P3 =)3! ways. Hence the number of ways
can be done in 6C1.
of forming the number divisible by 5 is
By the fundamental principle of addition,
= 3! = 6
required number of arrangements
 n(E1) = 6
6 5 6!   6 5 6!  n (E1 ) 6 1
=  C1  C2     C1  C1    required probability = n (S)  24  4
 4!   5!
(ii) Let E2 = event of getting odd numbers
6 5 6!  
6 5 6! 
6
 n(E4) =  C1  C 2  4!    C1  C1  5!   C1 To form odd numbers, the unit’s place can
   
be filled with 1, 3, or 5 ie in ( 3P 1 =) 3
680 Concept of Arithmetic

ways. The remaining three places can 2 boxes and this can be done in 29 ways.
then be filled with other digits in (3P3 =)3! Hence the total number of ways
ways. = (12C3 × 29)
Hence the number of ways in which the  n(E) = 12C3 × 29
odd numbers can be formed is 3 × 3! = 18 12
 n(E2) = 18 n (E) C3  29
 required probability = 
n (S) 312
n (E 2 ) 18 3
 required probability = n (S)  24  4 Ex. 29: In shuffling a pack of 52 playing cards,
four are accidently dropped; find the
Ex. 27: What is the probability that four S’s chance that the missing cards should
come consecut i vel y i n the wor d be one from each suit.
‘MISSISSIPPI’? Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then n(S) = The total number of ways in which
n(S) = The total number of words that can 4 cards can be selected out of 52
be f or med by per muting t he 11 cards = 52C4
letters of the word ‘MISSISSIPPI’. Let E = Event of getting the missing cards
11! that should be one from each suit.
= 4! 4! 2!1! There are 4 suits and each suit contains
13 cards.
Let E = event of getting such words in Hence the number of ways of selecting 4
which four S’s come consecutively. cards, 1 from each suit
Since the sequence of 4 consecutive S’s = (13C1 × 13C1 × 13C1 × 13C1)
may start either from the first place or  n(E) = (13C1 × 13C1 × 13C1 × 13C1)
second place, . . . ., or eight h place.
Therefore, there are 8 possible ways in
 required probability =
13 C1 4  2197
which 4 S’s can come consecutively and 52 20825
C4
in each case the remaining 7 letters viz
 7! 

K KUNDAN
MIIIPPI can be arranged in   ways. Addition Theorems on Probability
 4! 2!1! 
Thus the total number of ways in which So f ar we hav e calculat ed t he pr obabilit y of
occurrence of an event by using the definition only.
 7!  But sometimes it is not convenient to find the
4 S’s can come consecutively =  8  
 4! 2!1!  number of cases favourable to the occurrence of an
event due to which the computation of probability
 7!  from the definition only is not possible. In such
 n(E) =  8  4! 2!1!  cases we calculate the probability of the event from
 
known pr obabilit ies of ot her ev ents. This is
n (E ) possible only when the given event is expressible
 required probability = n (S)
as the union of two or more events.
For example, in the random experiment of
7! 11! 4 drawing 2 cards from a well shuffled pack of 52
= 8  4! 2!1!  4! 4! 2!1!  165 cards the event “getting both red cards or both
kings”, can be expressed as the union of two events
Ex. 28: Twelve ball s ar e di stri buted am ong
viz.
three boxes. What is the probability
E : getting two red cards.
that the first box will contain 3 balls?
F : getting two kings.
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then
In t his art icle we intend t o discuss some
n(S) = The number of ways in which 12
theorems to find the probability of the union of
balls can be placed in 3 boxes
two or more events.
= Since each ball can go to any one
(i) Theorem-I: (Addition theorem for two events)
of the three boxes there are 3 ways
if E and F are two events associated with a random
in which a ball can go to any one
experiment, then
of the three boxes. Thus there are
312 ways in which 12 balls can be
P(E  F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E  F)
Corollary: If E and F are mutually exclusive
placed in 3 boxes.
events, then
Let E = event getting first box that will
P(E F) = 0
contain 3 balls.
P(E  F) = P(E) + P(F)
Number of ways in which 3 balls out of
This is t he addit ion theorem for mut ually
12 can be put in the first box is 12C3. Now
exclusive events.
the remaining 9 balls one to be placed in
Probability 681

(ii) Theorem-II: (Addition theorem for three n(F) = number of ways of select ing 2
events) if E, F, G are three events associated with kings out of 4 kings
a random experiment, then = 4C2 = 6
P(E F G) = P(E) + P(F) + P(G) - P(E F) – n(E  F) = number of ways of selecting 2
P(F G) - P(E G) + P(E F G) red kings out of 2 red kings
Corollary: If E, F, G are mutually exclusive = 2C2 = 1
events, then
n (E ) 325
P(E F) = P(F G) = P(E G) = P(E F G) = 0 Hence, P(E) = n (S)  1326
 P(E F G) = P(E) + P(F) + P(G)
This is the addition theorem for three mutually
exclusive events. n (F ) 6 1
P(F) = n (S)  1326  221 and
Ex. 30: A card is drawn at random from a well-
shuffled deck of 52 cards. Find the
probability of its being a spade or a n (E  F ) 1
P(E  F) = 
king. n (S ) 1326
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then  P(both red or both kings)
n(S) = number of ways of selecting one = P(E or F) = P(E  F)
card out of 52 cards = P(E) + P(F) - P(E  F)
52! (By addition theorem)
= 52C1 = (52  1)!1! = 52
 325 1 1  330 55
Let E = event of getting a spade =     
And F = event of getting a king  1326 221 1326  1326 221
Then, E  F = events of getting a king of Ex. 32: A basket contains 20 apples and 10
spade oranges out of which 5 apples and 3
Clearly, n(E) = 13, n(F) = 4 and n(E F) = 1 oranges are defective. If a person takes
out 2 at random what is the probability
n (E ) 13 1 that either both are apples or both are
 P(F) = n (S)  52  4
good?

K KUNDAN
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then,
n (F ) 4 1 n(S) = number of ways of selecting 2 out
P(F) = n (S)  52  13 and
of 30

n (E  F ) 1 30! 30  29
P(E F) =  = C2 = (30  2)! 2! 
30
2
n (S ) 52
 P(a spade or a king) = 15 × 29 = 435
= P(E or F) = P(E  F) Let E = event of getting both apples.
= P(E) + P(F) - P(E  F) And F = event of getting both good items.
(By addition theorem) Then, E  F = event of getting 2 good
apples.
1 1 1  16 4 n(E) = number of ways of select ing 2
=     
 4 13 52  52 13 apples out of 20

4 20! 20  19
 P (a spade or a king) = = 20
C2 = (20  2)! 2!  2 = 190
13
Ex. 31: Two cards are drawn at random from Ther e ar e 8 def ectiv e pieces and the
a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards. What remaining 22 are good.
is the probability that either both are n(F) = number of ways of selecting 2 good
red or both are kings? items out of 22
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then, 22! 22  21
n(S) = number of ways of selecting 2 cards = 22
C2 = (23  2)! 2!  2 = 231
out of 52 cards
= 52C2 = 1326 There are only (20 - 5 =) 15 good apples.
Let E = event of getting both red cards n(E  F) = number of ways of selecting 2
And, F = event of getting both kings good apples out of 15
Then, (E  F) = event of getting two red
15! 15  14
kings = 15
C2 = (15  2)!2!  2 = 105
 n(E) = number of ways of selecting 2
cards out of 26 red cards
= 26C2 = 325
682 Concept of Arithmetic

n (E ) 190 And F = {(3, 6), (6, 3), (4, 5), (5, 4)}
Hence, P(E) = n (S)  435 ; Clearly E  F = . So, E and F are mutually
exclusive.
n (F ) 231
P(F) = n (S)  435 and n (E ) 6 1
 P(E) = n (S)  36  6 and

n (E  F ) 105
P(E  F) =  n (F ) 4 1
n (S ) 435 P(F) = n (S)  36  9
 P(both apple or both good)
So, P(a doublet or a total of 9)
= P(E or F) = P(E  F)
= P(E or F) = P(E  F)
= P(E) + P(F) - P(E  F)
= P(E) + P(F)
[By addition theorem]
[ E and F are
 190 231 105  mutually exclusive]
=    
 435 435 435  1 1 5
=   
 6 9  18
 190  231  105  316  P(neither a doublet nor a total of 9)
=  
 435  435 = 1 - P(a doublet or a total of 9)
Ex. 33: Two di ce ar e tossed once. Fi nd t he
 5  13
probability of getting an even number = 1  
on first die or a total of 8.  18  18
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then, Ex. 35: A di e is t hrown t wi ce. What is t he
n(S) = 6 × 6 = 36 probability that at least one of the two
Let E = event of getting an even number throws comes up with the number 4?
on first die Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then,
And, F = event of getting a total of 8 n(S) = 6 × 6 = 36
Then, E  F = event of getting an even Let E1 = the event that the first throw
number on first die and a total of 8 shows 4.

K KUNDAN
Now, E = {(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), And, E2 = the event that the second throw
(2, 5), (2, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, shows 4.
5), (4, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5),  E1  E2 = the event showing 4 in each
(6, 6)} thr ow.
F = {(2, 6), (6, 2), (3, 5), (5, 3), (4, 4)} Then, E1 = {(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4),
and E  F = {(2, 6), (6, 2), (4, 4)} (4, 5), (4, 6)};
 n(E) = 18, n(F) = 5 and n(E  F) = 3 E 2 = {(1, 4), (2, 4), (3, 4), (4, 4),
(5, 4), (6, 4)}
n (E ) 18 1
Hence, P(E) = n (S)  36  2 ; and E1  E2 = {(4, 4)}
 n(E1) = 6, n(E2) = 6 and n(E1  E2) = 1

n (F ) 5 6 1
P(F) = n (S)  36 and Hence, P(E1) = 
36 6
6 1
n (E  F ) 3 1 P(E2) =  and
P(E  F) =   36 6
n (S) 36 12
1
 P(even number on first die or a total 8) P(E1  E2) =
36
= P(E or F) = P(E  F)
= P(E) + P(F) – P(E  F)  P(at least one 4) = P(E1 or E2)
= P(E1  E2)
1 5 1  20 5 = P(E1) + P(E2) - P(E1  E2)
=     
 2 36 12  36 9
1 1 1  11
Ex. 34: In a single throw of two dice, find the =    
 6 6 36  36
probability that neither a doublet nor
a total of 9 will appear. Ex. 36: A card is drawn from a deck of 52
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then, cards. Find the probability of getting
n(S) = 6 × 6 = 36 a king or a heart or a red card.
Let E = the event of getting a doublet. Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then,
And, F = the event of getting a total of 9. n(S) = number of selecting 1 card out of
Then E = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), 52.
(5, 5), (6, 6)} = 52C1 = 52
Probability 683

Let E, F, G be the events of getting a king, 13 13

a heart and a red card respectively. C4 C4
P(E3) = 52 and P(E4) = 52
Th en , C4 C4
n(E) = number of ways of selecting 1 king
It is clear t hat E 1 , E 2 , E 3 and E 4 ar e
out of 4
mutually exclusive events
= 4C1 = 4
 P (getting all the 4 cards of the same
n(F) = number of ways of selecting 1 heart
suit)
out of 13
= P(E1 or E2 or E3 or E4) = P(E1) + P(E2)
= 13C1 = 13
+ P(E3) + P(E4)
n(G) = number of ways of selecting a red
card out of 26  13
C 4 
= 26C1 = 26 =  4 

52
C 4 
Clearly, (E  F); (E  G); (F  G) and
(E  F  G) are the events of getting ‘a
 13  12  11  10 4  3  2 1 
king of heart’, ‘a king of red card’, ‘a heart = 4   
and a red card’ and ‘a king of heart and  4  3  2 1 52  51  50  49 
red card’ respectively.
44
 n(E F) = 1; n(E G) = 2; n(F G) = 13 =
and n(E F G) = 1 4165

4

1 13 1
 ; Conditional Probability
Hence, P(E) = ; P(F) =
52 13 52 4
Let E and F be two events associated with a random
26 1 experiment. Then, the probability of occurrence of
P(G) =  ; E under the condition that F has already occured
52 2
and P(F)  0, is called the conditional probability
1 2 1 and it is denoted by P(E/F).
P(E  F) = ; P(E G) =  ; Thus, P(E/F) = Probability of occurrence of E given
52 52 26
that F has already occurred.

K KUNDAN
13 1 Similarly, P(F/E) = Probability of occurrence of F
P(F G) =  given that E has already occured.
52 4
Sometimes, P(E/F) is also used to denote the
1 probability of occurrence of E when F occurs.
and P(E F G) = Similarly, P(F/E) is used to denote the probability
52
 P(a king or a heart or a red card) of F when E occurs.
= P(E or F or G) = P(E  F G) Following examples will illust rat e v ar ious
= P(E) + P(F) + P(G) – P(E F) – P(F G) meanings of these notations.
– P(E G) + P(E F  G) Ex. 38: Suppose a bag contains 5 white and 4
red balls. Two balls are drawn from
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  the bag one after the other without
=        
 13 4 2 52 4 26 52  replacement. Consider the following
events.
28 7 E = event of drawing a white ball in the
= 
52 13 first draw
Ex. 37: Four cards are drawn at a time from F = event of drawing a red ball in second
a pack of 52 playing cards. Find the draw
probability of getting all the four cards Now, P(F/E) = Probability of drawing a
of the same suit. red ball in second draw given that a white
Soln: Let S be the sample space. ball has already been drawn in the first
Then, n(S) = number of ways of selecting draw.
4 out of 52 Since 8 balls are left after drawing a white
= 52C4 ball in first draw and out of these 8 balls,
Let E1, E2, E3, E4 be the events of getting 4 balls are red, therefore,
‘all spades’, ‘all clubs’, ‘all hearts’ and ‘all 4
C1 4 1
diamonds’ respectively. P(F/E) = 8
 
Then, n(E 1) = 13 C 4 ; n(E 2 ) = 13C 4 ; n(E 3 ) C1 8 2
= 13C4 and n(E4) = 13C4 Note that P(E/F) is not meaningful in this
13 13 experiment because E cannot occur after
C4 C4 the occurrence of F.
Hence, P(E1) = 52 ; P(E2) = 52
C4 C4
684 Concept of Arithmetic

Ex. 39: Consider an experiment of throwing a Multiplication Theorems on Probability

pair of dice.
Let E and F be the events given by Let E and F be two events associated with the
E = the sum of points is 8 same random experiment. Then,
F = there is an even number on first die. P(E  F) = P(E) × P(F/E); where P(E)  0
Th en , or
E = {(2, 6), (6, 2), (3, 5), (5, 3), (4, 4)} and P(E  F) = P(F) × P(E/F); where P(F)  0
F = {(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), Note: (i) By definition of conditional probability,
(2, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), we have
(4, 5), (4, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), n (E  F ) n (E  F )
(6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)} P(F/E) = n (E ) and P(E/F) = n (F )
E  F = {(2, 6), (6, 2), (4, 4)}
 n(E  F) = 3 (ii) Extension of Multiplication Theorem: If
A1, A2, ..., A n are n events related to a random
n (E ) 5 experiment, then P(A1 A2 A3 ... An) = P(A1) ×
 P(E) = n (S)  36 and
P(A2/A1) × P(A3/A1 A2) ... P(An/A1 A2 ... An-1);
where P(A i /A 1  A 2  .. .  A i-1 ) r epr esent s the
n (F ) 18 conditional probability of the event A i , given that
P(F) = n (S)  36 the events A1, A2, ..., Ai-1 have already happened.
Ex. 41: A bag contains 10 white and 15 black
Now, P(E/F) = Probability of occurrence
balls. Two balls are drawn in succession
of E when F occurs.
wit hout r epl acem ent . What i s the
= Probability of get ting 8 as the sum
pr obabil i t y t hat fi rst is whi t e and
when there is an even number on first
second is black?
die.
Soln: Consider the following events:
n (E  F ) 3 A = event of getting a white ball in first
=  [ n(E  F) =3]
n (E ) 5 draw
B = event of getting a black ball in second
Ex. 40: A die is thrown twice and the sum of

K KUNDAN
draw
t he num bers appear ing is obser ved
Required probability = Probability of getting
t o be 6. What i s the condit i onal
a white ball in first draw and black ball
probabi l i ty t hat the num ber 4 has
in second draw
appeared at least once?
= P(A and B) = P(A  B)
Soln: Consider the events:
= P(A) × P(B/A) ... (i)
E = number 4 appears at least once.
F = the sum of the numbers appearing is 6. n ( A ) 10 C1 10 2
Now, P(A) = n (S)  25  
Th en , C1 25 5
E = {(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), And P(B/A) = Probability of getting a black
(6, 4), (5, 4), (3, 4), (2, 4), (1, 4)} ball in second draw when a white ball
 n(E) = 11 has already been drawn in first drawn.
and, 15
C1
15 5
F = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)} =  
24
 n(F) = 5 C1 24 8
(E  F) = {(2, 4), (4, 2)} From (i), required probability
 n(E  F) = 2
2 5 1
The required probability = P(A B) = P(A) × P(B/A) =  
5 8 4
n (E  F ) 2 Ex. 42: Find the pr obabi l it y of drawi ng a
= P(E/F) = 
n (F ) 5 di am ond card i n each of t he t wo
Note: It is to note here that in Ex. 38 consecutive draws from a well-shuffled
only P(F/E) is meaningful whereas in Ex. pack of cards, if the card drawn is
39 P(E/F) and P(F/E) both are meaningful. not replaced after the first draw.
This is due to the reason that in Ex. 38 Soln: Let E = event of drawing a diamond card
events E and F are subsets of two different in the first draw
sample spaces and they occur one after and F = event of dr awing a diamond
the other whereas in Ex. 39, events E card in the second draw
and F are subsets of the same sample space Then, required probability
and they can occur together also. = P(E F) = P(E) × P(F/E) ... (i)
13
C1 13 1
 
 P(E) = 52
C1 52 4
Probability 685

After drawing a diamond card in first draw After drawing 3 white balls in first draw
51 cards are left out of which 12 cards 5 + 8 - 3 =) 10 balls are left in the bag, out
are diamond cards. of which 8 are black balls
 P(F/E) = Pr obabilit y of drawing a 8
diamond car d in second draw when a C3 56 7
 P(F/E) = 10
 
diamond card has already been drawn in C3 120 15
first draw
Hence, required probability
12
C112 4 = P(E  F) = P(E) × P(F/E)
= 51 

C1 51 17 5 7 7
Now, from (i), =  
143 15 429
1 4 1 Ex. 45: Two balls drawn from an urn containing
P(E  F) = P(E) × P(F/E) =  
4 17 17 2 white, 3 red and 4 black balls one by
Ex. 43: A bag contains 19 tickets, numbered one without replacement. What is the
from 1 to 19. A ticket is drawn and probability that at least one ball is
then another ticket is drawn without red?
replacement. Find the probability that Soln: Let E = event of not getting a red ball
both tickets will show even numbers. in first draw
Soln: Let E = event of dr awing an even And F = event of not getting a red ball
numbered ticket in first draw in second draw
And, Then, required probability
F = event of drawing an even numbered = Probability that at least one ball is red
ticket in the second draw. = 1 – Probability that none is red
Th en , = 1 - P(E and F)
Required probability = 1 - P(E  F)
= P(E  F) = P(E) × P(F/E) ... (i) = 1 - P(E) × P(F/E) ... (i)
Since there are 19 tickets, numbered 1 to Now, P(E) = Probability of not getting a
red ball in first draw

K KUNDAN
19, in the bag but of which 9 are even
numbers viz 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18. = Probability of getting an other colour
(white or black) ball in first draw
9
Therefore, P(E) = 6 2
19 
Since the ticket drawn in the first draw =
9 3
is not replaced, therefore, second ticket When another colour ball is drawn in first
drawn is from the remaining 18 tickets, draw there are 5 other colour (white or
out of which 8 are even numbered. black) balls and 3 red balls, out of which
8 4 one other colour ball can be drawn in
 P(F/E) =  (5C1 =) 5 ways.
18 9
Hence, required probability 5
= P(E  F) = P(E) × P(F/E)  P(F/E) =
8
9 4 4 From (i), required probability
=   = 1 - P(E) × P(F/E)
19 9 19
Ex. 44: An urn contains 5 white and 8 black 2 5 7
balls. Two successive drawings of three = 1  
3 8 12
balls at a time are made such that the Ex. 46: If A and B are two events such that
balls are not replaced before the second P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.8 and P(B/A) = 0.6,
draw. Find the probability that the find P(A/B) and P(A  B).
fir st dr aw gi v es 3 whit e bal ls and
second draw gives 3 black balls. P(A  B)
Soln: Let E = event of drawing 3 white balls Soln: We know that P(B/A) = P(A)
in the first draw
 P(A  B) = P(A) × P(B/A)
And F = event of drawing 3 black balls
= (0.4 × 0.6) = 0.24
in the second draw
Required probability P(A  B) 0.24
= P(E  F) = P(E) × P(F/E) ... (i) So, P(A/B) = P(B) = 0.8 = 0.3
5
C3 10 5 And, P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A  B)
Now, P(E) = 13
 
C3 286 143 = (0.4 + 0.8 - 0.24) = 0.96
686 Concept of Arithmetic

Ex. 47: A die is rolled. If the outcome is an odd Ex. 50: A die is thrown twice and the sum of the
number, what is the probability that it numbers appearing is observed to be 7.
is prime? What is the conditional probability that
Soln: When a die is rolled the sample space is the number 2 has appeared at least
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} once?
Let E = event of getting an odd number Soln: Let E = the event of getting the sum 7.
And, F = event of getting a prime number and, F = the event of getting at least one 2.
Then, E = {1, 3, 5}; F = {2, 3, 5} and Then, E = {(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3),
E  F = {3, 5} (5, 2), (6, 1)}
and, F = {(1, 2), (2, 2), (3, 2), (4, 2),
3 1 3 1
 P(E) =  , P(F) =  and (5, 2), (6, 2), (2, 1), (2, 3),
6 2 6 2 (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6)}
Then, E  F = {(2, 5), (5, 2)}
2 1
P(E  F) =  Now, we have to find P(F/E)
6 3
P(E  F) 2 1
Suppose E has already occurred and then  P(F/E) =  
P(E) 6 3
F occurs.
Then, we have to find P(F/E) Ex. 51: Two unbiased dice are thrown. Find the
probabi l i ty t hat the sum is 8 or
P(E  F)  1 2  2 greater, if 4 appears on the first die.
Now, P(F/E) =   
P(E) 3 1 3 Soln: Let E = the event of getting 4 on the first
die
Ex. 48: Three fair coins are tossed. Find the
and, F = the event of getting the sum 8
probability that they are all tails, if
or greater
one of the coins shows a tail.
 E = {(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5),
Soln: Here S = {HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT,
(4, 6)
TTH, HHH, TTT}
and, F = {(4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), (5, 4), (5, 5),
Let E = event that one of the coins shows
(5, 6), (6, 2), (2, 6), (3, 5), (3, 6), (5, 3), (6,
a tail
3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)}

K KUNDAN
and, F = event that they are all tails
 E  F = {(4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6)}
Then, E = {HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT,
 required probability
TTH, TTT}
and F = {TTT} P(E  F) 3 1
= P(F/E) =  
Clearly, E  F = {TTT} P(E) 6 2
7 1 1 Ex. 52: I n a cl ass 40% st udents r ead
 P(E) = , P(F) = and P(E  F) = mathemat ics, 25% biol ogy and 15%
8 8 8
bot h mathem atics and bi ology. O ne
P(E  F)  1 8  1 student is selected at random. Find the
So, P(F/E) =   
P(E) 8 7 7 probability that
Ex. 49: A coin is tossed t wice and the four (i) he reads mathematics, if it is known
possible outcomes are assumed to be that he reads biology;
equally likely. If E is the event ‘both (ii) he reads biology, if it is known that
head and tail have appeared’ and F be he reads mathematics.
the event, ‘at most one tail is observed’, Soln: Let E = the event of reading mathematics
find P(E), P(F), P(E/F) and P(F/E). and F = the event of reading biology
Soln: Here S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} 40 2 25 1
E = {HT, TH} and F = {HH, HT, TH} Then P(E) =  ; P(F) = 
100 5 100 4
 E  F = {HT, TH}
15 3
2 1 3 and P(E  F) = 
So, P(E) =  ; P(F) = and 100 20
4 2 4
P(E  F)  3 4  3
 (i) P(E/F) =   
2 1 P(F)  20 1  5
P(E  F) = 
4 2
P(E  F)  3 5  3
P(E  F)  1 4  2 (ii) P(F/E) =   
   P(E)  20 2  8
 P(E/F) = P(F) 2 3 3
Ex. 53: A bag contains 5 white, 7 red and 8
black balls. If four balls are drawn one
P(E  F)  1 2 
And, P(F/E) =     1 by one without replacement, what is
P(E) 2 1 the probability that all are white?
Probability 687

Soln: Let A, B, C, D denote events of getting a remaining cards is 49 and there remains
white ball in first, second, third and fourth only one ace.
draw respectively.
1
Then, required probability  on the fourth draw, P(an ace) =
= P(A  B C D) 49
= P(A) × P(B/A) × P(C/A  B) Hence,
× P(D/A B C) ... (i)
 1 1 1 1  1
Now, P(all aces) =     
P(A) = Probabilit y of dr awing a whit e  13 17 25 49  270725
Ex. 55: A box contains 3 red and 5 blue balls.
5 1 Two balls are drawn one at a time at
ball in first draw = 
20 4 random without replacement. Find the
When a white ball is drawn in the first probability of getting 1 red and 1 blue
draw there are 19 balls left in the bag, out ball.
of which 4 are white Soln: 1 red and 1 blue ball can be obtained in 2
ways; either (1st red ball and 2nd blue
4
 P(B/A) = ball) or (1st blue ball and 2nd red ball).
19 Case I: Initially, there are 8 balls in all,
Since t he ball drawn is not replaced, out of which 3 are red.
therefore, after drawing a white ball in
3
second draw there are 18 balls left in the C1 3
 P(1st ball red) = 8

bag, out of which 3 are white. C1 8
3 1 Since replacement is not being made, after
 P(C/A  B) = 
18 6 the first draw, we have 7 balls in all, out
After drawing a white ball in third draw of which 5 are blue.
there are 17 balls left in the bag, out of 5
C1 5
which 2 are white.  P(2nd ball blue) = 7

7

K KUNDAN
C1
2
 P(D/A B C) = Hence, P(1st ball red and 2nd ball blue)
17
Hence, required probability  3 5  15
=   
= P(A  B C D)  8 7  56
= P(A) × P(B/A) × P(C/A  B) Case II: Initially there are 8 balls in all
× P(D/A B C) out of which 5 are blue.
1 4 1 2  1 5
=       P(1st ball blue) =
 4 19 6 17  969 8
Ex. 54: Four cards are drawn successively one Since replacement is not being made, after
after the other from a well-shuffled the first draw, we have 7 balls in all, out
pack of 52 cards. If the cards are not of which 3 are red
replaced, find the probability that all
of them are aces. 3
 P(2nd ball red) =
7
4 1
Soln: On first draw, P(an ace) =  Hence, P(1st ball blue and 2nd ball red)
52 13
Since the card drawn is not replaced, the 5 3 15
=  
second card is drawn from the remaining 8 7 56
51 cards. Also, one ace has already been Now, the above two cases are mutually
drawn, there are now three remaining exclusive
aces.  P(1 red ball and 1 blue ball)
3 1  15 15  15
 on second draw, P(an ace) =  =   
51 17  56 56  28
Now, there remain 50 cards containing 2
aces. Independent Events
2 1 Events are said to be independent, if the occurrence
 on third draw, P(an ace) =  or non-occur r ence of one does not af f ect the
50 25
probability of the occurrence or non-occurrence of
Af ter the thir d dr aw, t he number of
the other.
688 Concept of Arithmetic

Suppose a bag contains 6 white and 3 red balls. Ex. 57: A can solve 90% of the problems given
Two balls are drawn from the bag one after the in a book and B can solve 70%. What
other. Consider the events: is the probability that at least one of
E = drawing a white ball in first draw them will solve a problem, selected at
F = drawing a red ball in second draw random from the book?
If the ball drawn in the first draw is not replaced Soln: Let E = t he ev ent t hat A solv es t he
back in the bag, then events E and F are dependent pr oblem
events because P(F) is incr eased or decreased And, let F = the ev ent t hat B solves
according as the first draw results as a white or the problem
red ball. If the ball drawn in first draw is replaced Clearly, E and F are independent events
back in the bag, then E and F are independent 90 9
events because P(F) remains same whether we get Now, P(E) =  and
100 10
a white ball or a red ball in first draw ie
70 7
P(F) = P(F/E) and P(F/ E ) P(F) = 
100 10
It is evident from the above discussion that if E
and F are two independent events associated with By addit ion t heor em f or independent
a random experiment, then events, we have
P(E/F) = P(E) and P(F/E) = P(F) and vice-versa. P(E  F) = 1  P ( E )  P ( F ) ... (i)

Multiplication Theorems for Independent  9  1

 P(E )  1   and
Events  10  10
 7  3
Theorem-I: If E and F are independent events P(F )  1  
associated with a random experiment, then  10  10
P(E  F) = P(E) × P(F) or, P(E or F) = P(E  F)
Theorem-II: If E1, E2, E3, ... En are independent  1 3  97
events associated with a random experiment, then = 1    = 0.97
 10 10  100
P(E1  E2  E3  ...  En) = P(E1) × P(E2) × ... ×
Alternative Method:

K KUNDAN
P(En)
From the above, we have
Addition Theorem For Independent 9 7
Events P(E) = and P(F) =
10 10
Theorem: If E1, E2, ..., En are n independent events  P(E  F) = P(E) × P(F)
associated with a random experiment, then  9 7  63
P(E1  E2 E3 ... En) =   
 10 100  100
= 1  P(E1 )  P(E2 )  ...  P(En ) [ E and F are independent events]
Ex. 56: An unbiased die is tossed twice. Find Hence, P(E or F) = P(E  F)
the probability of getting a 4, 5 or 6 on = P(E) + P(F) – P(E  F)
the first toss and a 1, 2, 3 or 4 on the
 9 7 63  97
second toss. =     = 0.97
Soln: Let E = event of getting a 4, 5 or 6 on  10 10 100  100
the first toss Ex. 58: The probability that A hits a target is
and, F = event of getting a 1, 2, 3 or 4 1
on the second toss.   and the probability that B hits it
3
Then, clearly, E and F are independent
2 
events. is   . What is the probability that
Sample space in each case is 5 
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} the target will be hit, if each one of A
and B shoots at the target?
3 1 4 2 Soln: Let E = the event that A hits the target
P(E) =  and P(F) = 
6 2 6 3 and F = the event that B hits the target
Hence, P(getting a 4, 5 or 6 on first toss 1 2
and a 1, 2, 3 or 4 on 2nd toss) As given, we have P(E) = and P(F) =
3 5
= P(E  F)
Clearly, E and F are independent events.
1 2 1
= P(E) × F(F) =      P(target is hit) = P(A hits or B hits)
2 3 3 = P(E  F)
(By mult iplication t heor em f or
independent events) = 1  P(E)  P(F)
Probability 689

(By the addition theorem for independent

= P(E) × P( F ) + P(F) × P( E )
events)
 1 2  1 4 1 6  10 2
or, P( E ) = 1 – P(E) = 1    and =      
 3 3  7 5 5 7  35 7
 2 3 (iii) P(none of them will be selected)
P( F ) = 1 – P(F) = 1    = P[(not-E) and (not-F)]
 5 5
= P[(E  F )  P(E)  P(F )
2 3 2 3
 P(target is hit) = 1      1   [ E and F being independent,
3 5 5 5
Alternative Method: E and F are independent]
1 2 2  6 4  24
P(E  F) = P(E) × P(F) =  
3 5 15 =   
 7 5  35
(By multiplication theorem for independent (iv) P(at least one of them will be selected)
events) = 1 – P(none will be selected)
 P(target is hit) = P(A hits or B hits)
= P(E  F) = P(E) + P(F) - P(E  F)  24  11
= 1  
1 2 2  9 3  35  35
=     
 3 3 15  15 5 Ex. 60: A speaks truth in 75% and B in 80% of
Ex. 59: A husband and a wife appear in an the cases. In what percentage of cases
interview for two vacancies in the same are they likely to contradict each other
post . The pr obabil i t y of husband’ s narrating the same incident?
1 [BSRB Chennai PO–2005; ATMA–2006]
sel ect i on   and t hat of wife’ s Soln: Let E = the event that A speaks the truth.
7 
And let F = t he ev ent t hat B speaks
1  the truth.
select ion is   . What i s t he
5 

K KUNDAN
probability that Then, E = the event that A tells a lie,
(i) both of them will be selected? and F = the event that B tells a lie
(ii) only one of them will be selected? Clearly, E and F are independent events.
(iii) none of them will be selected?
(iv) at l east one of t hem wi l l be Hence, E and F as well as E and F are
selected? independent
[MAT–2005]
75 3
Soln: Let E = the event that the husband is Now, P(E) =  and
selected 100 4
and, F = t he event that t he wif e is
80 4
select ed P(F) = 
Clearly, E and F are independent events. 100 5
 3 1
1 1  P( E ) = 1    and
Now, P(E) = and P(F) =  4 4
7 5
1 6  4 1
 P( F ) = 1   
 P( E ) = 1    and  5 5
 7 7
 P(A and B contradict each other)
 1 4
P( F ) = 1    = P[(A speaks the truth and B tells a
 5 5 lie) or (A tells a lie and B speaks the
(i) P(both of them will be selected) truth)]
= P(E and F) = P(E  F) = P(E) × P(F)
= P[(E  F )  (E  F )]
1 1 1
=  
7 5 35 = P[(E  F )  (E  F )]
(ii) P(only one of them will be selected)
= P(E and not-F) or P(F and not-E) [ P[(E  F )  (E  F )  ]
= P[(E  F )  (F  E)] = P(E) × P( F ) + P( E ) × P(F)
= P[(E  F )  (F  E)] 3 1 1 4 7
=     
 4 5 4 5  20
[ P[(E  F )  (F  E  )]
690 Concept of Arithmetic

Hence, the percentage of t he cases in

 1 2
which A and B contradict each other  P( A ) = 1   
 3 3
 7 
=   100 % = 35%
 20   2 5
Ex. 61: A problem is given to three students P( B ) = 1    and
 7 7
1 1
whose chances of solving it are ,  3 5
2 3
P( C ) = 1   
1  8 8
and r especti v el y. What i s t he
4  The probability that exactly one of them
probability that the problem will be will solve it
solved? = P{[A  (not-B)  (not-C)] or [(not-A) 
Soln: Let E1, E2, E3 be the respective events of  B (not-C) or [not-A) (not-B) C]}
solving the problem and, E1 , E2 , E3 be = P{(A B  C )  ( A B C )  ( A  B C)}
the respective events of not solving the
problem. = P{(A B  C ) + ( A B C ) + ( A  B C)}
Then, E 1 , E 2 and E 3 are independent
[  (A B  C )  ( A B C ) 
events.
( A  B C) = ]
 E1 , E2 and E3 are independent events.

1 1 1 = P(A) × P( B ) × P( C ) + P( A ) × P(B) × P( C )
Now, P(E1) = ; P(E2) = and P(E3) =
2 3 4 + P( A ) × P( B ) × P(C)

 1 1 1 5 5 2 2 5 2 5 3
 P( E1 ) = 1    =          
 2 2 3 7 8 3 7 8 3 7 8

 1 2  25 5 5  75 25
P( E2 ) = 1    =     

K KUNDAN
and
 3 3  168 42 28  168 56
Ex. 63: Three groups of children contain 3 girls
 1 3 and 1 boy; 2 girls and 2 boys; 1 girl
P( E3 ) = 1   
 4 4 and 3 boys respectively. One child is
 P(none solves the problem) selected at random from each group.
= P[(not E1) and (not E2) and (not E3)] Find the chance that the three selected
comprise 1 girl and 2 boys.
= P( E1  E2  E3 ) = P( E1 ) × ( E2 ) × ( E3 )
Soln: Let B1, B2, B3 be the events of selecting a
[ E1 , E2 and E3 are independent] boy from first, second and third group
respectively. And let G1, G2 and G3 be the
1 2 3 1 events of selecting a girl from first, second
=     and third group respectively.
2 3 4 4
1
Hence, P(the problem will be solved) C1 1
Then, P(B1) = 
= 1 – P(none solves the problem) 4
C1 4
 1 3
= 1    2
C1 2 1
 4 4  
P(B2) = 4 4 2
Ex. 62: The probabilities of A, B, C solving a C1
1 2 3
problem are , and respectively. 3
3 7 8 C1 3
P(B3) = 4

If all the three try to solve the problem C1 4
simultaneously, find the probability
3
that exactly one of them will solve it. C1 3
P(G1) = 4

Soln: Let A, B and C be the events of solving C1 4
the problem A, B and C respectively.
2
C1 2 1
Then, A , B , C are the respective events P(G2) = 4
 
C1 4 2
of not solving the problem by them
1
1 2 3 C1 1
Now, P(A) = ; P(B) = and P(C) = P(G3) = 4

3 7 8 C1 4
Probability 691

 P(1 girl and 2 boys) 3

C1 3
= P[(G1  B2  B3) or (B1 G2  B3) P(red from second bag) = 10

10 and
or, (B1  B2  G3)] C1
= P(G1  B2 B3) + P(B1  G2  B3) 7
C1 7
+ P(B1  B2  G3) P(black from second bag) = 10

= P(G1) × P(B2) × P(B3) + P(B1) × P(G2) C1 10
× P(B3) + P(B1) × P(B2) × P(G3)  P(two black balls and one red ball)
3 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 = P[(1 red from first and 2 black from
=           second) or (1 black from first and 1 red
4 3 4 4 2 4 4 2 4
and 1 black from second)]
 9 3 1  13 = P(1 red from first and 2 black from
=    
 32 32 32  32 second) + P(1 black from first and 1
Ex. 64: A bag contains 4 white and 2 black red and 1 black from second)
balls. Another contains 3 white and 5 = P[(1 red from first) × P(2 black from
black balls. If one ball is drawn from second)] + [P(1 black from first) × P(1
each bag, find the probability that red and 1 black from second)]
(i) both are white; = P[(1 red from first) × P(2 black from
(ii) both are black; second)] + [P(1 black from first) × P(1
(iii) one is white and one is black. red and 1 black from second)]
Soln: (i) P(both balls are white) 7
= P[(white ball from first bag) and (white 4 C2 5 3 C1  7 C1
=  10
  10
ball from second bag)] 9 C2 9 C2
= P(White ball from first bag) × P (White
 4 7 6   5 3 7 
ball from second bag) =      2
 9 10  9   9 10  9 
4 3 1
=     28 7  63 7
6 8 4    
=
(ii) P(both balls are black)  135 27  135 15

K KUNDAN
= P[(black ball from first bag) and (black Ex. 66: A bag contains 4 red and 3 black balls.
ball from second bag)] A second bag contains 2 red and 4 black
= P(black ball from first bag) × P(black ball balls. One bag is selected at random.
from second bag) Fr om t he sel ected bag, one bal l i s
2 5 5 drawn. Find the probability that the
=    ball drawn is red.
 6 8  24
1
(iii) P(one white ball and one black ball) Soln: Probability of choosing first bag =
= P[(black ball from first bag and white 2
from second) (Choosing 1 out of 2).
or, (whit e f r om f ir st and black f rom Probability of drawing a red ball from this
second)] 4
C1 4
= P(black f rom fir st and whit e fr om bag = 7

C1 7
second) + P(white from first and black
from second) P(Choosing first bag and drawing a red
 2 3   4 5   1 5  13 1 4 2
=          ball from it) =    
 6 8   6 8   8 12  24 2 7 7
Ex. 65: A bag contains 4 red and 5 black balls
1
and bag B contains 3 red and 7 black Probability of choosing second bag =
balls. One ball is drawn from bag A 2
and t wo from bag B. Find the Probability of drawing a red ball from this
probability that out of 3 balls, two are 2
black and one is red. C1 2 1
bag = 6
 
[MAT–1998] C1 6 3
Soln: Clearly, we have:
P(Choosing second bag and drawing a red
4
C1 4
P(red from first bag) = 9
 1 1 1
C1 9 ball from it) =    
2 3 6
5
C1 5
P(black from first bag) =  2 1 19
9
C1 9  P(a red ball) =  
7 6 42
692 Concept of Arithmetic

Ex. 67: A, B and C shoot to hit a target. If A And, let F = the event of drawing 3 black
hits the target 4 times in 5 trials; B balls in second draw.
hits it 3 times in 4 trials and C hits it When the balls are replaced before the
2 t i m es i n 3 tr i als; what i s the second trial, E and F are independent
probability that the target is hit by at events.
least 2 persons?  Required probability
[MAT–2009] = P(E  F) = P(E) × P(F)
Soln: Let A, B and C be the events that A hits 5 8
the target, B hits the target and C hits the C3 C3 10 56
= 13
 13
 
target respectively. C3 C3 286 286
Th en ,
140
4 3 2 =
P(A) = , P(B) = , P(C) = 20449
5 4 3
Note: Also see the Ex. 44. Ex. 44 is an
 4 1  3 1 example of condit ional pr obabilit y,
P( A ) = 1    , P( B ) = 1    and whereas the above example is the case of
 5 5  4 4
independent events.
 2 1
P( C ) = 1    The Law of Total Probability
 3 3
Case I: P(A, B and C all hit the target) Let S be the sample space and E1, E2, ..., En be n
= P(A  B  C) mut ually exclusiv e and exhaustiv e ev ent s
= P(A) × P(B) × P(C) associated with a random experiment. If E is any
4 3 2 2 event which occurs with E1 or E2 or E3 or .... or En,
=     then
5 4 3 5
P(E) = P(E1) P(E/E1) + P(E2) P(E/E2) + ... +
Case II: P(A and B hit but not-C) P(En) P(E/En)
= P(A B  C ) The law of total probability as stated above say
that if an event E can occur in n mutually exclusive

K KUNDAN
= P(A) × P(B) × P ( C ) ways, then the probability of occurrence of E is
the sum of the probabilities of various ways.
4 3 1 1
=     Ex. 69: A bag contains 4 red and 3 black balls.
5 4 3 5 A second bag contains 2 red and 4 black
Case III: P(A and C hit but not-B) balls. One bag is selected at random.
Fr om t he sel ected bag, one bal l i s
= P(A  C  B )
drawn. Find the probability that the
= P(A) × P(C) × P( B ) ball drawn is red.
Soln: A red ball can be drawn in two mutually
4 2 1 2
exclusive ways:
=    
 5 3 4  15 (I) Selecting bag I and then drawing a
Case IV: P(B and C hit but not-A) red ball from it.
(II) Selecting bag II and then drawing a
= P( B  C  A )
red ball from it.
= P(B) × P(C) × P( A ) Let E1, E2 and E denote the events defined
as follows:
3 2 1 1
=     E1 = Selecting bag I
 4 3 5  10 E2 = Selecting bag II
All t he abov e cases being mut ually E = Drawing a red ball
exclusive, we have the required probability Since one of the two bags is select ed
2 1 2 1  5 randomly,
=     
 5 5 15 10  6 1 1
Ex. 68: An urn contains 5 white and 8 black therefore P(E1) = and P(E2) =
balls. Two successive draws of three 2 2
balls at a time are made such that the Now, P(E/E1) = Probability of drawing a
balls are replaced before the second r ed ball when t he f ir st bag has been
trial. Find the probability that the first chosen.
drawi ng wil l gi v e 3 whi t e and t he 4
second 3 black balls. = (Since first bag contains 4 red and
7
Soln: Let E = the ev ent of drawing 3 white
balls in first draw 3 black balls)
Probability 693

and P(E/E 2) = Probability of drawing a
red ball when t he second
bag has been selected.
2 5%, 4% and 2% ar e respect i vel y
= (Since the second bag contains 2
6
red and 4 black balls)
Using the law of total probability, we have
P(red ball) = P(E)
= P(E1) P(E/E1) + P(E2) P(E/E2)
 1 4 1 2  19
=     
 2 7 2 6  42
Ex. 70: In a bolt factory, machines A, B and C
manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and
40% of the total bolts. Of their output
5%, 4% and 2% ar e respect i vel y
defect i ve bol ts. A bol t i s dr awn at
random from the product. What is the
pr obabil i t y t hat t he bol t dr awn i s
defective?
Soln: Let E1, E2, E3 and E be the events defined
as follows:
E1 = the bolt is manufactured by machine A
E2 = the bolt is manufactured by machine B
E3 = the bolt is manufactured by machine C
E = the bolt is defective. Then,
25 1 35 40
 ; P(E ) =
Ex. 71: In a bolt factory, machines A, B and C
manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and
40% of the total bolts. Of their output
defect i ve bol ts. A bol t i s dr awn at
random from the product. If the bolt
drawn is found to be defective, what is
the probability that it is manufactured
by the machine B?
Soln: Let E1, E2, E3 and E be the events defined
as follows:
E1 = the bolt is manufactured by machine A
E2 = the bolt is manufactured by machine B
E3 = the bolt is manufactured by machine C
E = the bolt is defective.
Th en ,
P(E 1) = Probability that the bolt drawn is
manufactured by machine A
25
=
100
P(E 2) = Probability that the bolt drawn is
manufactured by machine B
35
=
100
P(E 3) = Probability that the bolt drawn is
manufactured by machine C

K KUNDAN
P(E1) = 2
; P(E3) =
100 4 100 100 40
P(E/E1) = Probability that the bolt drawn =
100
is defective given the condition P(E/E1) = Probability that the bolt drawn
that it is manufactured by is def ect ive giv en t hat is
machine A manufactured by machine A
5 5
= =
100 100
4 4
Similarly, P(E/E2) = and Similarly, P(E/E2) = and
100 100
2
2 P(E/E3) =
P(E/E3) = 100
100
Using the law of total probability, we have Now, required probability = Probability that
P(E) = P(E 1 ) P(E/E 1) + P(E 2) P(E/E 2 ) + the bolt is manufactured by machine B
P(E3) P(E/E3) given that the bolt drawn is defective

 25 5   35 4   40 2  P(E 2 ) P(E/E 2 )
=        or, P(E2/E) =
 100 100   100 100   100 100  P(E1 ) P(E/E1 )  P(E 2 ) P(E/E 2 )
 P(E 3 ) P(E/E 3 )
= 0.0345

Baye’s Rule 35

4
Let S be the sample space and E1, E2, ..., En be n 100 100
= 25 5 35 4 40 2
mut ually exclusiv e and exhaustiv e ev ent s     
associated with a random experiment. If E is any 100 100 100 100 100 100
event which occurs with E1 or E2 or, ... or En, then
140 140 28
=  
P(Ei ) P(E/E i ) 125  140  80 345 69
P(Ei/E) = n ; where i = 1, 2, ..., n


i n
P(Ei ) P(E/E i )
694 Concept of Arithmetic

Ex. 72: Three boxes contain 6 red, 4 black; 4 Ex. 73: A dice is thrown 6 times. If “getting an
red, 6 black and 5 red, 5 black balls odd number” is a “success”, then find
r espect iv ely. O ne of t hese boxes i s the probability of 5 “successes”.
selected at random and a ball is drawn [MAT–1998]
from it. If the ball drawn is red, then Soln: In this question, a random experiment is
find the probability that it is drawn performed 6 times.
from the first box.  n = 6
[MAT–1998] p = probability of getting an odd number
Soln: Let E1, E2, E3 and E be the events defined
3 1
as follows: in one throw = 
E1 = box first is chosen 6 2
E2 = box second is chosen [Since there are 3 odd numbers (1, 3, 5)
E3 = box third is chosen and out of 6 numbers (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) on the
E = ball drawn is red dice.]
Since there are three boxes and one of q = probability of non-occurrence of an
the three boxes is chosen at r andom,  1 1
therefore odd number in one throw = 1   
 2 2
1 Since, here, “getting an odd number” is
P(E1) = P(E2) = P(E3) = called a “success”
3
Hence r = 5 (required number of getting
If E1 has already occurred, then box first successes)
has been chosen which contains 6 red  Required probability = nCr pr qn-r
and 4 black balls. The pr obabilit y of
5 6 5 5
6 6 1 1 1 1 3
= C5      6    
drawing a red ball from it is .  2  2 2 2 32
10
Ex. 74: Suppose 6 coi ns ar e fl i pped
6 sim ul taneousl y. Then fi nd t he
Hence, P(E/E1) =
10 probability of getting at least one tail.

K KUNDANSimilarly, P(E/E2) =

P(E/E3) =
5
10
4
10
and

We are required to find P(E1/E) ie given

that the ball drawn is red, what is the
probability that it is drawn from the first
Soln:
Let X denote the number of tails in 6
throws of a coin. Then the probability of
getting r tails is given by

P(X = r) =

=
6

6
r
1 1
Cr    
 2  2

1
Cr  
6
6 r
; r = 0, 1, 2, ..., 6

box. 2
By Bay’s rule, Hence, required probability
= P(X  1) = 1 - P(X = 0)
P(E1 ) P(E/E1 )
P(E1/E) = 1 1
6
63
P(E1 ) P(E/E1 )  P(E 2 ) P(E/E 2 ) 6
= 1  C0    1  
 P(E 3 ) P(E/E 3 ) 2 64 64
Ex. 75: A coin is tossed 5 times. What is the
1 6 probability that head appears an odd

3 10 6 2 number of times?
=  
1 6 1 4 1 5 15 5 Soln: We know that if a coin is tossed n times,
    
3 10 3 10 3 10 then the probability that head will turn
1
Binomial Probability up an odd number of times is
2
. Let us
If a random experiment is performed ‘n’ times under see how?
similar condit ions, then the pr obabilit y of t he Let X denote the number of heads in n
occurrence of the event E exactly ‘r’ times in ‘n’ trials trials.
is P(X = r) and P(X = r) = nCr pr qn-r; where r = 0, 1, 2, Th en ,
3, ... n; p = the probability of occurrence of event E
r n r n
in one trial and q = (1 - p) = probability of non- n 1 1 1
P(X = r) = Cr      n Cr  
occurrence of event E in one trial (ie p + q = 1). 2 2 2
Probability 695

Thus, the required probability q = probability that a student is not a

= P(X = 1) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 5) + ... 1
swimmer =
n n n 5
n 1 1 1
= C1   n C3    n C 5    ... r = 4
2 2 2  required probability = nCr pr qn-r
n 4 5 4 4
1 n 5 4 1 4 1
n n
=   ( C1  C3  C5  ...) = C4      5 C4    
 2 5 5 5 5
Ex. 78: 100 i dent i cal coi ns, each wi t h
1 1
= n
(2n 1 )  21  probability, p, of showing up heads are
2 2 t ossed once. I f 0 < p < 1, and t he
[  nC1 + nC3 + nC5 + ... = 2n-1] probabili ty of heads showing on 50
coins is equal to that of heads showing
1 on 51 coins, then find the value of p.
 required probability =
2 [MAT–1999]
Ex. 76: What is the probability of getting at Soln: Let X denote the number of coins showing
least 6 heads if eight coins are tossed heads up.
simultaneously? Then, the number of random experiments
[GGSIU–2002] (n) = 100 and the probability of occurrence
Soln: Let X denote the number of heads in 8 of event is p.
throws of a coin. Then the probability of Now, according to the question,
getting r heads is given by P(X = 51) = P(X = 50)
r 8 r
or, 100C51 p51 q100 – 51 = 100C50 p50 q100 – 50;
8 1 1 (where q = 1 – p)
P(X = r) = Cr     ; r = 0, 1, 2, 3, ..., 8
 2  2 or, 100C51 p51 q49 = 100C50 p50 q50
100
8 p C50 51
8 1  100

q 50

K KUNDAN
= Cr   C51
2
Required probability p 51
= P(X  6) or, 1  p  50
= P(X = 6) + P(X = 7) + P(X = 8)
1  p 50
8 or, 
1 8 8 8 p 51
=   ( C6  C 7  C8 )
 2 1 50 101
or, p  51  1  51
1  8! 8! 8! 
=     51
256  (8  6)! 6! (8  7)! 7! (8  8 )! 8!   p =
101
1 8 7  37 Ex. 79: The probability that a marksman will
=   8  1 
256  2  256 1
hit a target is given as . Then find
Ex. 77: The probability that a student is not a 5
the probability that at least one hit in
1 10 shots.
swimmer is . Then find the probability Soln: Let X denote the number of shots in which
5
t hat out of t he 5 st udent s 4 ar e a marksman hit a target in 10 shots. Then
swimm er s. the probability of r hits is given by P(X = r)
[MAT– 2002] r 10 r
Soln: There are 5 students. Hence the random 10 1 4
= Cr    
experiment is performed 5 times. 5 5
 n = 5 Thus, the required probability
p = probability that a student is a swimmer = P(X  1) = 1 - P(X = 0)
0 10 10
 1 4 10 1 4  4
= 1    = 1  C0      1  
 5 5 5 5 5