TUGAS KEANDALAN STRUKTUR

UNCERTAINTY IN STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING

Disusun oleh :
DESINTA NUR LAILASARI NIM. 136060117111002
RIZKI A. T. CAHYANI NIM. 136060117011001
VEBLIN RUHULESSIN NIM. 146060100111018

KEMENTERIAN PENDIDIKAN DAN KEBUDAYAAN

UNIVERSITAS BRAWIJAYA
FAKULTAS TEKNIK
JURUSAN TEKNIK SIPIL
PROGRAM STUDI MAGISTER
MALANG
2014
PROBLEM 2.14
Consider the resultant stress to have a mean of 50.0 ksi and standard deviation of 5.0 ksi. If the stress
is assumed to have a uniform probability density function, then plot its probability density function
and calculate the probability that the stress will be greater than 47.9 ksi.

Solution :
The uniform PDF is defined as :
1
𝑝(𝑥) = ( )=0 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝑏
𝑏−𝑎

The mean of X is :
+∞
𝑎+𝑏
𝑋̅ = ∫ 𝑥 𝑝(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = ( )
−∞ 2

and its variance is :

+∞ (𝑏 − 𝑎)2
𝜎2𝑥 = ∫ (𝑥 − 𝑥̅ )2 𝑝(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 =
−∞ 12

𝑎 + 𝑏 = 2𝑋̅
−𝑎 + 𝑏 = 2√3𝜎𝑥 +
2𝑏 = 2𝑋̅ + 2√3𝜎𝑥
𝑏 = 𝑋̅ + √3𝜎𝑥
𝑎 = 𝑋̅ − √3𝜎𝑥

𝑋̅ = 50.0 𝑘𝑠𝑖
𝜎𝑥 = 5.0 𝑘𝑠𝑖

𝑎 = 50 − (5√3) = 41.34 𝑘𝑠𝑖

𝑏 = 50 + (5√3) = 58.66 𝑘𝑠𝑖

So we have probability density function,

1 1
𝑝(𝑥) = ( )= = 0.05774
𝑏−𝑎 58.66 − 41.34
Plot of probability density function 𝑝(𝑥) is:

Uniform Probability Density Function

0.07

0.06 41.33974596, 58.66025404,

0.057735027 0.057735027
0.05

0.04
p(x)

0.03

0.02

0.01

0
35 40 45 x 50 55 60

Probability can be computed from the area of probability density function. Hence to computed the
probability when the stress is greater than 47.9 ksi, we computed the area of uniform probability
density function as shown below:

Uniform Probability Density Function

0.07

0.06
0.05744
0.05

0.04
p(x)

0.03

0.02

0.01

0
35 40 a=41.34 45 X=47.90 50 55 b=58.66 60
x

Probability when the stress is greater than 47.9 ksi is,

Pr(𝑋 > 47.9) = (58.66 − 47.90) (0.05744) = 0.6212 = 62%