23 March 2018 www.valutrades.

com

Daily Market Update

AUD USD Close: 0.7693
1.4358 l S3: 0.7526
1.39 39 l S2: 0.7624
1.4127 l S1: 1
0.7658
.4243 l Pivot: 1.
0.7722
4315 l R1: 0.7756
1.4431 l R2: 1.4
0.7820
503 l R3: 1.4
0.7918
691

SMAVG on Close(20) SMAVG on Close(100) O: 0.7765 H: 0.7785 L: 0.7687 C: 0.7693

0.8217

0.8136

0.8059

0.7986

0.7901

0.7819

0.7744 0.7743
0.7693
0.7652

0.7585

0.7502

0.7427

Relative Strength Index (RSI)(14)

100

50
39.3
0

%K Stochastics (9) %D Stochastics (5)

100
50
0
Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18

The AUDUSD pair traded lower in the previous session to end at 0.7693, after nudging a low at 0.7687. Although the daily MACD
is trading in the negative territory, the stochastic and RSI indicators are sharply heading towards the north, indicating at a positive
momentum in the pair. Moreover, the 8H MACD is pointing upwards, coupled with the 4H stochastic indicator heading north,
further supports the above stance. Key intraday resistance is positioned at the 0.7745 level, followed by the 20day SMA (curr ently
placed at 0.7780) and the 8H 100SMA (currently trading at 0.7815). A sustained break above the latter might lead to positive
momentum in the pair. On the other hand, crucial support is seen at the 2H lower Bollinger band (currently placed at 0.7677/75),
followed by the 0.7646/45 and 0.7610 levels. A breach below the latter might trigger further negativity in the pair.

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 Valu Daily

Currencies Global Economic Update

Current* 1D % Chg. 1W % Chg.
• The Bank of England (BoE), at its March monetary policy meeting,
kept the benchmark interest rate steady at 0.50% and its asset
EURUSD 1.2334 -0.29% -0.02%
purchase facility at £435.0 billion, with two officials surprisingly
GBPUSD 1.4114 -0.32% 1.14% voting for an immediate rate hike. Meanwhile, the retail sales ex-
EURJPY 129.26 -1.02% -1.02% fuel rose 0.60% on a MoM basis in February, more than market
USDJPY 104.79 -0.73% -1.00% expectations and compared to a revised drop of 0.20% in the
previous month.
CHFJPY 110.85 -0.66% -0.77%

USDTRY 0.66% 1.01%

• In the Eurozone, the composite PMI dropped to a level of 55.30 in
3.9696
March, compared to a reading of 57.10 in the prior month. The
USDMXN 18.6690 1.08% -0.35%
flash manufacturing PMI slid to a level of 56.60 in March,
USDPLN 3.4244 0.13% 0.26%
compared to a reading of 58.60 in the previous month.
*Time: 06:00:00 GMT
• In Germany, the Ifo business expectations index slid to a level of
104.40 in March, compared to a level of 105.40 in the last
month. The preliminary manufacturing PMI fell more-than-
expected to a level of 58.40 in March, compared to a reading of
60.60 in the prior month. The preliminary services PMI dropped to
1.2635 1.4407 a reading of 54.20 in March, compared to a level of 55.30 in
February. The flash Markit composite PMI slid to a level of 55.40
1.1917 1.3687
in March, more than market expectations and compared to a
1.1200 1.2968
reading of 57.60 in the last month.
• In the US, the flash Markit composite PMI eased to 54.30 in
1.0482 1.2248
Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 March, compared to a reading of 55.80 in February. The flash
Markit manufacturing PMI climbed more-than-expected to a level
EURUSD (LHS) GBPUSD (RHS)
of 55.70 in March, compared to a level of 55.30 in the previous
month. The flash Markit services PMI unexpectedly eased to a
level of 54.10 in March, compared to a reading of 55.90 in the
last month. The seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims
138.62 115.41
advanced unexpectedly to a level of 229.00 K in the week ended
130.42 111.68 17 March 2018, compared to a reading of 226.00 K in the prior
week.
122.22 107.96
• In Japan, the national consumer price index rose 1.50% on a YoY
114.02 104.23 basis in February, compared to a rise of 1.40% in the previous
Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18
month.
EURJPY (LHS) USDJPY (LHS)

EUR USD • Technicals to watch: A possible centerline crossover by

the 8H MACD to enter its positive region, indicates at a
1.2390
positive momentum in the pair.

• The Euro weakened against the US Dollar in the New

1.2364
York session yesterday, closing 0.13% lower at 1.2310.

• At GMT0600, the Euro is trading at 1.2334 against the

1.2337
US Dollar, 0.19% higher from the New York close.

1.2310 • The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2284

and first resistance at 1.2386. The second support is
expected at 1.2234 and second resistance at 1.2438.
1.2284
6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00 6:00

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 Valu Daily

GBP USD • Yesterday, the Pound traded 0.3% lower against the US
Dollar in the New York session and ended at 1.4103.
1.4222
• In the Asian session, at GMT0600, the pair is trading at
1.4114, with the Pound trading 0.08% higher against US
1.4185
Dollar from the New York close.

• The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.4054

1.4148
and second support at 1.3993, while the first resistance
is expected at 1.4197 and second resistance at 1.4279.
1.4110
• A bullish crossover is visible on the chart as the Positive
Directional Indicator (+DI) has crossed the Negative
1.4073 Directional Indicator (-DI) from below.
6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00 6:00

EUR JPY • The EUR weakened against the JPY in the New York
session yesterday, closing 0.17% lower at 129.63.
131.12
• In the Asian session, at GMT0600, the pair is trading at
129.26, with the Euro trading 0.29% lower against
130.56
Japanese Yen from the New York close.

• The pair is expected to find its first support at 128.47

129.99
and first resistance at 130.54. The second support is
expected at 127.67 and second resistance at 131.81.
129.42
• The potential of a correction cannot be ruled out as the
Commodities Channel Indicator (CCI) has crossed -100
128.85 from above.
6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00 6:00

USD JPY • Yesterday, the US Dollar traded 0.04% lower against the
Yen in the New York session and ended at 105.30.
105.98
• The US Dollar is trading at 104.79 against the Yen at
GMT0600 in the Asian session, 0.48% lower from the
105.63
New York close.

• The pair is expected to witness its first support at 104.31

105.29
and second support at 103.83, while the first resistance
is expected at 105.60 and second resistance at 106.41.
104.94
• StochRSI has moved down from the overbought region,
generating a bearish signal.
104.59
6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00 6:00

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 Valu Daily

CHF JPY • In the New York session yesterday, the Swiss Franc
weakened 0.16% against the Japanese Yen to close at
111.84
110.99.

• The pair is trading at 110.85 at GMT0600 in the Asian

111.47
session, with the CHF trading 0.13% lower against JPY
from the New York close.
111.10
• The pair is expected to find its first support at 110.28
and first resistance at 111.58. The second support is
110.73 expected at 109.71 and second resistance at 112.32.

• The CCI has crossed -100 from above, generating a

110.36
6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00 6:00
bearish signal.

USD TRY • Yesterday, the US Dollar traded 0.28% higher against the
Turkish Lira in the New York session and ended at
4.0393 3.9424.

• In the Asian session, at GMT0600, the pair is trading at

4.0035
3.9696, with the US Dollar trading 0.69% higher against
Turkish Lira from the New York close.
3.9678
• Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at
3.9006, followed by 3.8315, while on the upside, the first
3.9320 resistance level situated in 4.0374, followed by 4.1051.

• A bullish pattern is generated as the price has crossed

3.8962 the short term SMA from below.
6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00 6:00

USD MXN • The US Dollar traded 0.74% higher against the Mexican
Peso in the New York session yesterday, with the pair
18.7029 closing the session at 18.6362.

• At GMT0600, the US Dollar is trading at 18.6690 against

18.6289 the Mexican Peso, 0.18% higher from the New York
close.
18.5550 • Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at
18.4980, followed by 18.3269, while on the upside, the
18.4811 first resistance level situated in 18.7640, followed by
18.8589.

18.4072 • Positive sentiment still exists as RSI has moved up from

6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00 6:00 the oversold region.

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 Valu Daily

USD PLN • The US Dollar traded 0.09% higher against the Polish
Zloty in the New York session yesterday, with the pair
3.4391 closing the session at 3.4292.

• The pair is trading at 3.4244 at GMT0600 in the Asian

3.4313
session, with the US Dollar trading 0.14% lower against
Polish Zloty from the New York close.
3.4235
• The pair is expected to witness its first support at 3.4112
and second support at 3.3980, while the first resistance
3.4157 is expected at 3.4370 and second resistance at 3.4496.

• The chance of a correction cannot be ruled out as the

3.4079 Williams %R indicator has moved down from the
6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00 6:00
overbought territory.

Economic Calendar
Country GMT Economic Indicator Relevance Consensus Previous Frequency

Spain 8:00 Producer Price Index (MoM) (Feb)  - 0.20% Monthly

Spain 8:00 Producer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)  - 0.10% Monthly
UK 12:00 BoE Quarterly Bulletin  - - As scheduled
US 12:10 Fed's Bostic Speaks on the Economic Outlook  - - As scheduled
Canada 12:30 Consumer Price Index (Feb)  132.40 131.70 Monthly
Canada 12:30 Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)  1.90% 1.70% Monthly
Canada 12:30 Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (MoM) (Feb)  0.40% 0.70% Monthly
Canada 12:30 Consumer Price Index s.a. (MoM) (Feb)  - 0.50% Monthly
Canada 12:30 Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)  1.10% -0.80% Monthly
Canada 12:30 Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Jan)  0.80% -1.80% Monthly
UK 12:30 MPC Member Vlieghe speech  - - As scheduled
US 12:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (Feb) (P)  0.90% -0.30% Monthly
US 12:30 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (Feb) (P)  0.50% -0.10% Monthly
US 12:30 Durable Goods Orders (Feb) (P)  1.60% -3.60% Monthly
US 12:30 Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (Feb) (P)  0.50% -0.30% Monthly
US 14:00 New Home Sales (Feb)  620.00 K 593.00 K Monthly
US 14:00 New Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)  4.60% -7.80% Monthly
US 14:30 Fed's Kashkari Speaks in Moderated Q&A  - - As scheduled
US 19:30 CFTC Report  - - As scheduled
Eurozone - EU Debt Rating to be Reviewed by Moody's  - - As scheduled
Eurozone - EU Leaders Meet in Brussels  - - As scheduled
Note: High Medium Low

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 Valu Daily

Major Indices
Last Close/
1D % 1W % 1M % 1Y %
Current
Chg. Chg. Chg. Chg.
Technical Observations
Price*
The index has formed an Evening star Candlestick pattern on the chart signaling exhausted bull
DAX 30 12100.08 -1.70% -1.99% -3.41% 0.30%
market momentum and the start of a new bearish bias.

S&P 500 2643.69 -2.52% -3.77% -4.89% 12.79% A bearish pattern is generated as the CCI has crossed -100 from above.

After being overbought for a few sessions, the StochRSI has crossed 0.80 from above generating a
DJIA 23957.89 -2.93% -3.68% -6.81% 16.32%
bearish signal.

Eurostoxx 50 3348.19 -1.55% -1.93% -3.32% -2.79% Stochastic Oscillator is trading below 50 reflecting the existence of bearish momentum.

FTSE 100 6952.59 -1.23% -2.62% -4.62% -5.24% The index price has crossed below the HP Filter line, signaling a possible downtrend.

The MACD has crossed below its signal line, indicating a declining momentum and a possible
CAC 40 5167.21 -1.38% -1.90% -3.31% 2.91%
correction.
The Parabolic SAR has crossed the price from below, indicating that the price is trending down,
Nikkei 225* 21591.99 -4.54% -0.97% -2.54% 12.09%
generating a bearish signal.

Hang Seng 40* 30128.44 -3.03% -1.49% -1.36% 27.56% The MACD is trading in the negative territory, hinting at weakness in the coming session.

A decline in momentum can be seen as the Balance Of Power (BOP) signal has crossed zero from
ASX 200* 5820.70 -1.96% 0.28% -1.74% 3.19%
above.
The Aroon Oscillator has crossed zero from above to trade into the negative territory, indicating a
IBEX 35 9487.40 -1.49% -2.03% -4.19% -7.97%
downward trend bias.
*Time: 06:00:00 GMT

DAX 30 S&P 500

12,727 2,816

12,389 2,753

12,051 2,691

11,713 2,628
26-Feb 1-Mar 6-Mar 9-Mar 14-Mar 19-Mar 22-Mar 26-Feb 1-Mar 6-Mar 9-Mar 14-Mar 19-Mar 22-Mar

• The DAX 30 fell 1.7% yesterday to close at 12100.08. During • The S&P 500 fell 2.52% yesterday and closed at 2643.69.
the week, the index traded at a high of 12454.02 and a low of During the week, the index traded at a high of 2763.03 and a
12009.50. low of 2641.59.

• The DAX 30 weekly support level is 11921.71, and a fall • The S&P 500 weekly support level is 2602.51, and a fall
through could take it to the next support level of 11743.35. The through could take it to the next support level of 2561.33. The
index weekly resistance level is 12366.23, and a rise through index weekly resistance level is 2723.95, and a rise through
could take it to the next resistance level of 12632.39. could take it to the next resistance level of 2804.21.

DJIA Eurostoxx 50
25,929 3,511

25,226 3,433

24,522 3,354

23,819 3,276
26-Feb 1-Mar 6-Mar 9-Mar 14-Mar 19-Mar 22-Mar 26-Feb 1-Mar 6-Mar 9-Mar 14-Mar 19-Mar 22-Mar

• The DJIA fell 2.93% yesterday to close at 23957.89. During the • The Euro STOXX50 fell 1.55% yesterday to close at 3348.19.
week, the index traded at a high of 25053.87 and a low of During the week, the index traded at a high of 3448.63 and a
23938.74. low of 3320.09.

• The DJIA weekly support level is 23579.80, and a fall through • The Euro STOXX50 weekly support level is 3295.98, and a fall
could take it to the next support level of 23201.70. The index through could take it to the next support level of 3243.76. The
weekly resistance level is 24694.93, and a rise through could index weekly resistance level is 3424.52, and a rise through
take it to the next resistance level of 25431.96. could take it to the next resistance level of 3500.84.

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 Valu Daily

Commodities
1D % 1W % 1M % 1Y %
Current Price*
Chg. Chg. Chg. Chg.
Technical Observations

WTI Crude Oil

64.97 -1.33% 5.08% 0.61% 34.04% A bullish crossover is visible on the chart as the CCI has crossed 100 from below.
($/barrel)
Brent Crude Oil
69.51 -0.81% 5.82% 2.09% 35.65% StochRSI has moved up from the oversold region, generating a bullish signal.
($/barrel)
Stochastic Oscillator has crossed the oversold level (20) from below, generating a bullish
Gold ($/oz) 1343.90 -0.24% 0.98% -0.35% 6.87%
signal.
After a signal line crossover in the oversold zone, Stochastic Oscillator has moved above
Silver ($/oz) 16.51 -0.19% -0.21% -1.41% -7.67%
20 indicating that the downside might remain limited.
*Time: 06:00:00 GMT

1,426.4 19.4 74.1 69.4

1,334.9 17.8 63.6 59.8

1,243.4 16.2 53.1 50.1

1,151.8 14.7 42.6 40.4

Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18

Gold ($/oz) (LHS) Silver ($/oz) (RHS) Brent Crude ($/barrel) (LHS) WTI Crude ($/barrel) (RHS)

Gold Crude Oil

1,346.24 65.49

1,341.93 65.13

1,337.61 64.77

1,333.29 64.41

1,328.97 64.05
5:00 11:00 17:00 0:00 6:00 5:00 11:00 17:00 0:00 6:00

• Yesterday, gold traded 0.01% higher in the New York session • Yesterday, crude oil traded 0.82% lower in the New York
and ended at USD1335.80 per ounce. session and ended at USD64.16 per barrel.

• The metal is trading at USD1343.90 per ounce at GMT0600 in • In the Asian session, at GMT0600, crude oil is trading at
the Asian session, 0.61% higher from the New York close. USD64.97 per barrel, 1.26% higher from the New York close.

• Gold is expected to its find support at USD1334.50 per ounce,
and a fall through could take it to the next support level of
USD1325.10 per ounce. The yellow metal is expected to find its
first resistance at USD1349.10 per ounce, and a rise through
could take it to the next resistance level of USD1354.30 per
ounce.
• Crude oil is expected to its find support at USD64.25 per barrel,
and a fall through could take it to the next support level of
USD63.52 per barrel. The black metal is expected to find its
first resistance at USD65.56 per barrel, and a rise through
could take it to the next resistance level of USD66.14 per
barrel.

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