Examples in Specific Business Fields

Business
Finance/Insurance
Mining
Oil and Gas
Operations/Supply Chain
Project Management/Cost Estimation
Quality/Reliability
Statistics/Probability
Examples in Other Fields

Quick
QuickStart
Start Click here for an introductory hands-on tutorial of @RISK which includes detailed v
More
More on
onthe
the Web
Web Click here to find more examples on the Palisade website .

This icon indicates that an online video exists to illustrate this example. Click the icon to watch the video.
The first column indicates a required Edition of @RISK. (Pro=Professional (or higher), Ind=Industrial. Proj=Requires an installed version of MS Project.)
This icon indicates that this example is part of a larger sequence of examples. Click the icon to see the full seq

Note: Some examples appear multiple times in this list because they apply to more than one category

Business Examples
Basic Business: A sequence of simple "revenue minus cost equals profit" examples that illustrate various
Basic Business 0 - Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx
Basic Business 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Basic Business 2 - Model with Correlated Inputs.xlsx
Basic Business 3 - Model with Simtable.xlsx
Pro Basic Business 4 - Model with Goal Seek.xlsx
Pro Basic Business 5 - Model with Stress Analysis.xlsx
Pro Basic Business 6 - Model with Advanced Sensitivity Analysis.xlsx
Basic Business 7 - Effects of Different Input Distributions.xlsx

Competitor Entry: A sequence of examples of a company's sales of a new product when competitor entr
Competitor Entry 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Competitor Entry 2 - Model with More Competitors.xlsx

New Product: A sequence of examples of the growth and decline of a new product
New Product 0 - Basic Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx
Note New Product 1 - Basic Model with TopRank.xlsx
New Product 2 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
New Product 3 - Basic Model with Less Uncertainty.xlsx
 Other Basic Business Examples
Cost Estimation.xlsx
Ind Product Mix with Uncertainty 1.xlsx
Ind Product Mix with Uncertainty 2.xlsx
Ind Seasonal Sales - Time Series Fit.xlsx

Finance/Insurance Examples
Credit Risk: A sequence of examples that a credit office could use to approve or disapprove a loan
Credit Risk 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Credit Risk 2 - Model with Business Cycles.xlsx
Credit Risk 3 - Model with Correlated Price and Volume.xlsx

Discounted Cash Flow: A sequence of discounted cash flow models for calculating the net present value
Discounted Cash Flow 0 - Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx
Discounted Cash Flow 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Discounted Cash Flow 2 - Model with Changing Growth Rates.xlsx
Discounted Cash Flow 3 - Model with Correlated Growth Rates.xlsx

Portfolio Analysis: A sequence of examples about portfolios of investments

Portfolio Analysis 0 - Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx
Portfolio Analysis 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Portfolio Analysis 2 - Model with Puts.xlsx
Portfolio Analysis 3 - Sensitivity Analysis for Model with Puts.xlsx
Pro Portfolio Analysis 4 - Using Goal Seek on Model with Puts.xlsx
Portfolio Analysis 5 - Model with Correlated Stock Prices.xlsx
Ind Portfolio Analysis with RISKOptimizer.xlsx
Ind Portfolio Analysis with Efficient Frontier (RISKOptimizer).xlsx
Option Portfolio - Correlation, Copula Comparison.xlsx
Stock Portfolio - Correlation, Copula Comparison.xlsx

Insurance Claims: A sequence of examples for simulating categories of claims for an insurance company
Insurance Claims 0 - Basic Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx
Insurance Claims 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Insurance Claims 2 - Model with RiskCompound.xlsx
Insurance Claims 3 - Model with Resampling.xlsx

Real Options: A sequence of examples for using simulation to price real options
Real Options 1 - Abandonment.xlsx
Real Options 2 - Postponement.xlsx
Real Options 3 - Expansion.xlsx
Real Options 4 - Reduction.xlsx
Real Options 5 - Pioneer.xlsx
Real Options 6 - Sequential Decisions.xlsx
 Other Finance/Insurance Examples
Capital Budgeting.xlsx
Cash Management.xlsx
Contingent Contract Valuation.xlsx
Ind Exchange Rate Hedging.xlsx
Financial Forecasting.xlsx
Ind Financial Portfolio Simulation.xlsx
Investment Model with Correlated Assets.xlsx
Ind Planning for Retirement.xlsx
Ind Planning House Purchase.xlsx
Ind Portfolio Balancing with Uncertainty.xlsx
Ind Portfolio Optimization with Time Series.xlsx
Stock Price Forecasts.xlsx
Ind Stock Prices - Time Series Batch Fit.xlsx
Pro Stress Analysis.xlsx

Mining Examples
Gold Mine Lease: A sequence of models using simulation to value a gold mine lease
Valuing a Gold Mine Lease 1 - No Option.xlsx
Valuing a Gold Mine Lease 2 - Abandonment Option.xlsx
Ind Valuing a Gold Mine Lease 3 - Price Time Series.xlsx

Oil and Gas Examples

Oil Drilling Schedule: A sequence of examples for simulating the capital expenditures and numbers of we
Oil Drilling Schedule 0 - Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx
Oil Drilling Schedule 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx

Oil, Gas Forecast: A sequence of examples for forecasting revenues and expenses for an oil field over tim
Oil, Gas Forecast 0 - Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx
Oil, Gas Forecast 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Oil, Gas Forecast 2 - Sensitivity Analysis.xlsx

Volumetric Reserves: A sequence of simple examples to determine the amount of oil or gas in a field
Volumetric Reserves 0 - Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx
Volumetric Reserves 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Volumetric Reserves 2 - Sensitivity to Input Distributions.xlsx
Volumetric Reserves 3 - Methane Model.xlsx

Other Oil and Gas Examples

Oil Depletion Allowance.xlsx
Ind Petroleum Prices - Time Series Fit.xlsx
Ind Petroleum Prices - Time Series Batch Fit.xlsx
 Operations/Supply Chain
E-Commerce Service Examples: A sequence of examples based on the famous "newsvendor" model for i
E-Commerce Service 0 - Basic Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx
E-Commerce Service 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
E-Commerce Service 2 - Basic Model with Extra Uncertainty.xlsx
E-Commerce Service 3 - Model with Different Capacities.xlsx
Pro E-Commerce Service 4 - Model with Goal Seek.xlsx
Ind E-Commerce Service with RISKOptimizer.xlsx

Hotel Booking: A sequence of examples for taking reservations at a hotel

Hotel Booking 0 - Basic Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx
Hotel Booking 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Hotel Booking 2 - Model with Reservation Limits.xlsx
Hotel Booking 3 - Model Correlated Demands.xlsx
Ind Hotel Booking with RISKOptimizer.xlsx

Bullwhip Effect: A sequence of examples illustrating how the famous bullwhip effect creates excess inven
Supply Chain Bullwhip Effect 1.xlsx
Supply Chain Bullwhip Effect 2.xlsx

Other Operations/Supply Chain Examples

Ind Airline Revenue Management.xlsx
Ind Airline Revenue Management - Walkthrough Tutorial.xlsx
Generating Demands for Substitute Products.xlsx
Ind Inventory Ordering Simulation.xlsx
Ind Multi-Product Inventory Production.xlsx
Ind Newsvendor Model with Multiple Products.xlsx
Ind Ordering Style Goods.xlsx
Ind Scheduling Job Tasks on Machines with Uncertainty.xlsx
Ind Scheduling Jobs with Due Dates.xlsx

Project Management/Cost Estimation

Cost Estimation.xlsx

Examples That Require an Installed Copy of Microsoft Project

Pro, Proj Correlations.xlsx
Pro, Proj Parameter Entry Table.xlsx
Pro, Proj Probabilistic Branching.xlsx
Pro, Proj Probabilistic Gantt and Critical Index.xlsx
Pro, Proj RiskProjectResourceAdd.xlsx
Pro, Proj RiskProjectResourceUse.xlsx
Pro, Proj Risk Register and Advanced Modeling.xlsx
Pro, Proj Schedule Audit.xlsx
Pro, Proj Simple Risk Register.xlsx
Pro, Proj Simple Risk Register - Multiple Risks Impact Same Task.xlsx
Pro, Proj Simple Risk Register - Task to Impact Changes.xlsx
Pro, Proj Tutorial with Risk Categories.xlsx
Pro, Proj Tutorial.xlsx
Date Calculations in @RISK.xlsx

Quality/Reliability Examples
Process Capability: A sequence of examples that examine a system composed of several identical parts
Process Capability 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Process Capability 2 - Model with Correlated Parts.xlsx
Process Capability 3 - Six Sigma Functions.xlsx

Reliability: A sequence of examples that examine a system with several modules in series, where each m
Reliability 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Reliability 2 - Model with Correlations.xlsx
Ind Reliability with RISKOptimizer.xlsx

Other Quality, Reliability Examples

Electrical Circuit Analysis.xlsx
Six Sigma DOE with Catapult.xlsx
Six Sigma DOE with Weld.xlsx
Taguchi Loss Function.xlsx
Vendor Selection.xlsx

Statistics/Probability Examples
Event Risk: A sequence of examples for simulating risk events that either occur or don't occur
Event Risk 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Event Risk 2 - Using RiskMakeInput Function.xlsx
Event Risk 3 - Dependent Events.xlsx

Other statistics/probability examples

Central Limit Theorem.xlsx
Latin Hypercube Sampling.xlsx
Monte Carlo vs Latin Hypercube Sampling.xlsx
Stochastic Dominance.xlsx

Examples in Other Fields

Infectious Disease: A sequence of examples for simulating the spread of an infectious disease
Infectious Disease 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Infectious Disease 2 - Model with Possible Cures.xlsx
 Workforce Planning
Workforce Planning.xlsx
Ind Workforce Planning with RISKOptimizer.xlsx

Sports Examples
Baseball World Series.xlsx
NCAA Basketball Tournament.xlsx
Presidents Cup Golf.xlsx

Advanced Analyses Examples

Goal Seek
Pro Basic Business 4 - Model with Goal Seek.xlsx
Pro Portfolio Analysis 4 - Using Goal Seek on Model with Puts.xlsx

Stress Analysis
Pro Basic Business 5 - Model with Stress Analysis.xlsx
Pro Stress Analysis.xlsx

Advanced Sensitivity Analysis

Pro Advanced Sensitivity Analysis.xlsx
Pro Basic Business 6 - Model with Advanced Sensitivity Analysis.xlsx

Correlation, Copula Examples

Adjusting a Correlation Matrix.xlsx
Basic Business 2 - Model with Correlated Inputs.xlsx
Credit Risk 3 - Model with Correlated Price and Volume.xlsx
Dependency and Correlation.xlsx
Discounted Cash Flow 3 - Model with Correlated Growth Rates.xlsx
Hotel Booking 3 - Model Correlated Demands.xlsx
Investment Model with Correlated Assets.xlsx
Portfolio Analysis 5 - Model with Correlated Stock Prices.xlsx
Process Capability 2 - Model with Correlated Parts.xlsx
Reliability 2 - Model with Correlations.xlsx
Climate Copulas.xlsx
Option Portfolio - Correlation, Copula Comparison.xlsx
Spending Versus Salary Copula 1.xlsx
Spending Versus Salary Copula 2.xlsx
Spending Versus Salary Copula 3.xlsx
Stock Portfolio - Correlation, Copula Comparison.xlsx

Distribution Fitting Examples

Pro Distribution Fitting.xlsx
Pro Distribution Fitting - Batch Fit.xlsx
 Simulation with Microsoft Project Examples
(These Examples Require an Installed Copy of Microsoft Project and the Industrial or Professional Edition
Pro, Proj Correlations.xlsx
Pro, Proj Parameter Entry Table.xlsx
Pro, Proj Probabilistic Branching.xlsx
Pro, Proj Probabilistic Gantt and Critical Index.xlsx
Pro, Proj RiskProjectResourceAdd.xlsx
Pro, Proj RiskProjectResourceUse.xlsx
Pro, Proj Risk Register and Advanced Modeling.xlsx
Pro, Proj Schedule Audit.xlsx
Pro, Proj Simple Risk Register.xlsx
Pro, Proj Simple Risk Register - Multiple Risks Impact Same Task.xlsx
Pro, Proj Simple Risk Register - Task to Impact Changes.xlsx
Pro, Proj Tutorial with Risk Categories.xlsx
Pro, Proj Tutorial.xlsx
Date Calculations in @RISK.xlsx

RISKOptimizer Examples
"Recipe" Solving Method Examples
Ind Accepting House Offers.xlsx
Ind Airline Revenue Management.xlsx
Ind Airline Revenue Management - Walkthrough Tutorial.xlsx
Ind Capital Budgeting.xlsx
Ind Cash Management.xlsx
Ind E-Commerce Service with RISKOptimizer.xlsx
Ind Hotel Booking with RISKOptimizer.xlsx
Ind Newsvendor Model with Multiple Products.xlsx
Ind Ordering Style Goods.xlsx
Ind Planning House Purchase.xlsx
Ind Portfolio Analysis with RISKOptimizer.xlsx
Ind Portfolio Optimization with Time Series.xlsx
Ind Product Mix with Uncertainty 1.xlsx
Ind Product Mix with Uncertainty 2.xlsx
Ind Reliability with RISKOptimizer.xlsx

"Budget" Solving Method Examples

Ind Planning for Retirement.xlsx
Ind Workforce Planning with RISKOptimizer.xlsx

"Order" Solving Method Examples

Ind Multi-Product Inventory Production.xlsx
Ind Scheduling Job Tasks on Machines with Uncertainty.xlsx
Ind Scheduling Jobs with Due Dates.xlsx
Ind Traveling Salesperson with Uncertainty.xlsx

Other Solving Method Examples

Ind Portfolio Balancing with Uncertainty.xlsx
Ind Scheduling Classes with Uncertainty.xlsx
Ind Traveling Salesperson Variation with Uncertainty.xlsx

Efficient Frontier Examples

Ind Portfolio Analysis with Efficient Frontier (RISKOptimizer).xlsx
Ind Reliability with Efficient Frontier (RISKOptimizer).xlsx

RISKOptimizer Features
Ind Penalty Functions and Soft Constraints in RISKOptimizer.xlsx

Six-Sigma Examples
Electrical Circuit Analysis.xlsx
Process Capability 3 - Six Sigma Functions.xlsx
Six Sigma DOE with Catapult.xlsx
Six Sigma DOE with Weld.xlsx
Vendor Selection.xlsx
Six Sigma Functions.docx
Six Sigma Functions.xlsx

Time-Series Examples
Ind Exchange Rate Hedging.xlsx
Ind Financial Portfolio Simulation.xlsx
Ind Fuel Cost Projection Simulation.xlsx
Ind Inventory Ordering Simulation.xlsx
Ind Petroleum Prices - Time Series Batch Fit.xlsx
Ind Petroleum Prices - Time Series Fit.xlsx
Ind Portfolio Optimization with Time Series.xlsx
Ind Seasonal Sales - Time Series Fit.xlsx
Ind Stock Prices - Time Series Batch Fit.xlsx

Other @RISK Features

Theo Statistical Functions: A sequence of examples that illustrate @RISK's Theo (theoretical) statistical fu
Theo Statistical Functions 1 - Finding Summary Statistics.xlsx
Theo Statistical Functions 2 - Comparing Distributions.xlsx
Theo Statistical Functions 3 - Quality Calculations.xlsx

Other Examples that Illustrate @RISK Features

Alt Parameter Distributions.xlsx
Custom Reports.xlsx
Date Calculations in @RISK.xlsx
Distribution Property Functions.xlsx
Latin Hypercube Sampling.xlsx
Monte Carlo vs Latin Hypercube Sampling.xlsx
RiskOutput Function.xlsx
RiskTemplate.xlsx
Simtable with Multiple Variables.xlsx
Simulation Sensitivities.xlsx
Summary Trend Chart.xlsx
Thumbnails.xlsx
Truncated Distributions.xlsx
 Examples Highlighting Product Features
Advanced Analyses
Correlation, Copulas
Distribution Fitting
Simulation with Microsoft Project
RISKOptimizer
Six-Sigma
Time-Series
Other @RISK Features

here for an introductory hands-on tutorial of @RISK which includes detailed videos and instructions.
here to find more examples on the Palisade website .

e video exists to illustrate this example. Click the icon to watch the video.
her), Ind=Industrial. Proj=Requires an installed version of MS Project.)
mple is part of a larger sequence of examples. Click the icon to see the full sequence.

re than one category

s cost equals profit" examples that illustrate various @RISK features

A deterministic model to get started
A basic @RISK model with uncertain revenue and cost
A version where revenue and cost are not only uncertain but correlated
A version that illustrates the RiskSimtable function for examining the effect of different standard deviations of revenue and cost
A version that illustrates @RISK's Goal Seek feature for forcing the standard deviation of profit to a specified value
A version that illustrates @RISK's Stress Analysis feature for examining conditional (usually tail) distributions of profit
A version that illustrates @RISK's Advanced Sensitivity Analysis feature for checking how sensitive an output is to various inputs
A version that checks whether the forms of the input distributions have much effect on the output distribution

pany's sales of a new product when competitor entries into the market are possible
A basic @RISK model where only one competitor can enter the market
A version where multiple competitors can enter or exit the market

and decline of a new product

A deterministic model to get started
A version using TopRank to see which of many inputs are important enough to model with uncertainty
A basic @RISK model where the most important inputs, based on the TopRank analysis, are modeled with uncertainty
A version with somewhat less uncertainty in the inputs, used for comparison with the previous version
 A model for determining whether the total of uncertain costs meets a budget
A product mix optimization model with uncertainty only in product demands
A product mix optimization model with uncertainty in product demands and in resource usage
A model that illustrates how the Time Series Fit feature can be used on a series with trend and seasonality

ce could use to approve or disapprove a loan

A basic @RISK model where the uncertainty is essentially stationary through time
A version where the uncertainty changes through time because of business cycles
Another version with business cycles, but where the lender's price and sales volume are correlated each year

sh flow models for calculating the net present value (NPV) of an investment
A deterministic model to get started
A basic @RISK model where various quantities are uncertain but don't change from year to year
A version where various uncertain quantities are allowed to change from year to year
A version where revenue growth rates not only change from year to year but are correlated

rtfolios of investments
A deterministic model to get started
A basic @RISK model where future stock prices are independent of one another
A version where the investor can purchase put options on the stocks held to mitigate risk
Another version with puts that illustrates @RISK's Sensitivity Analysis features
A version that illustrates @RISK's Goal Seek feature for forcing the mean return from a stock to a specified value
A version where future stock prices are correlated with one another
A version that determines the puts that result in an optimal portfolio of stocks and puts
A model for finding a sequence of optimal portoflios for a sequence of expected levels of return
An example where extremes in a portfolio of stock options are compared using copulas versus correlations
An example where extremes in a portfolio of stocks are compared using copulas versus correlations

ting categories of claims for an insurance company

A deterministic model to get started
A naïve @RISK model that fails to capture all the uncertainty in total claims
A better version using the RiskCompound function to capture all of the uncertainty in total claims
A version using the method of resampling to simulate the numbers of claims each year

lation to price real options

A model that illustrates the real option of abandoning a project at a future time if the project is not doing well
A model that illustrates the real option of postponing investment in a project rather than investing right away
A model that illustrates the real option of expanding a project at a later date
A model that illustrates the real option of reducing the size of a project at a later date
A model that illustrates the real option of participating in a "pioneer" project, a money-loser that allows a company to "get in the game"
A model that illustrates a sequence of two real options in the pharmaceutical industry
 A capital budgeting model with uncertainty about projects' resource and capital usage and their NPVs
A multi-day model for determining when cash should be invested or cash should be obtained
A model for evaluating a contingent contract, where a penalty must be paid if a target is not met
A model that illustrates options for hedging against exchange rate variability, using the Time Series Fit feature on historical exchange rate d
A model for projecting future financial values, with various sources of uncertainty
A portfolio model that uses the Time Series Batch Fit feature to project future stock prices from historical stock prices
A basic portfolio model with correlated assets, including a comparison across different correlation values
An optimization model for deciding how to invest over a multi-year horizon to achieve a retirement goal
An optimization model for determining how to invest over a time horizon to accumulate a down payment for a house
An optimization model that balances groups of securities in a portfolio
A portfolio optimization model that applies the Time Series Fit feature to historical stock price data
A model for projecting future stock prices
A model that illustrates the Time Series Fit and Batch Fit features for fitting multiple correlated stock price series
An insurance model that illustrates @RISK's Stress Analysis feature

tion to value a gold mine lease

A basic @RISK model with uncertainty in the amount of gold mined, the unit cost of extracting it, and the price of gold
Same as the basic model, but provides the owner of the lease the option to abandon it at any time
Same as the abandonment model, but where the Time Series Fit feature is used to fit historical gold prices to a time series process

mulating the capital expenditures and numbers of wells in operation over time
A deterministic model to get started
A basic @RISK model with uncertainty about the size of the oil field

sting revenues and expenses for an oil field over time

A deterministic model to get started
A basic @RISK model with a number of uncertainties
A version using the RiskCollect function to help with a sensitivity analysis of the basic @RISK model

s to determine the amount of oil or gas in a field

A deterministic model to get started
A basic @RISK model where the output, a product of three uncertain quantities, is shown to be lognormally distributed
A version that uses several potential distributions of uncertain inputs to compare their effects on the output distribution
A version where the amount of methane is the product of five uncertain quantities

A model that illustrates how the oil depletion allowance affects the value of an oil investment
A model that illustrates the Time Series Fit feature can be used to generate future forecasts
A model that illustrates how the Time Series Batch Fit feature can be used to fit several potentially correlated series all at once
ples based on the famous "newsvendor" model for illustrating @RISK's basic features
A deterministic model to get started
A basic @RISK model with demand uncertainty
A version with demand uncertainty and uncertainty in price and cost
A version that illustrates the RiskSimtable function for different values of the capacity decision variable
A version that illustrates @RISK's Goal Seek feature for forcing mean profit to a specified value
A version for determining the capacity that maximizes the 10th percentile of profit

servations at a hotel
A deterministic model to get started
A basic @RISK model with uncertainty in demand and other uncertainties, where all reservations are taken
A version with reservation "booking" limits to prevent excessive overbooking
A version with no reservation limits but correlated demands for the two types of rooms
A version that determines optimal reservation limits

how the famous bullwhip effect creates excess inventory in a supply chain
A model that illustrates how the bullwhip effect can occur with a single retailer and supplier
A more common version that illustrates the bullwhip effect when there are multiple tiers of suppliers

A model for determining optimal discount and full-fare limits on an airline flight
The same as above but without the RISKOptimizer settings (for following along with the tutorial)
A model that illustrates one possible generic approach for generating demands for substitute products
An inventory ordering model that illustrates how the Time Series Define feature can be used to generate demands
A large optimization model for producing multiple SKUs to meet demand (based on a real Palisade case)
An optimization model for determining the best order quantities when substitute products are competing for total demand
A single-season optimization model for ordering style goods where ordering can occur after early sales have been observed
An optimization model that determines the best schedule for performing tasks on various machines
An optimization model for ordering jobs to meet due dates as nearly as possible

mation
A model for determining whether the total of uncertain costs meets a budget

A model that illustrates how @RISK can be used to correlate task times in a project
A model that illustrates the Parameter Entry Table for storing parameters of task time distributions
A model that illustrates how successor tasks can be chosen randomly according to given probabilities
A model that illustrates @RISK's probabilistic Gantt chart and the probabilities that tasks are critical
A model that illustrates the RiskProjectResourceAdd and RiskProjectResourceRemove functions for adding or removing a resource during a
A model that illustrates the RiskProjectResourceUse function for adding uncertainty to the assignment of resources in a project
A model that illustrates the use of a risk register, a Timescaled Data report. and other features for advanced project modeling
A model that illustrates @RISK's Schedule Audit feature for checking for errors in a project model
 A model that illustrates a risk register, a feature that lists possible risk events that can impact a project schedule and costs
A model that illustrates the use of a risk register where multiple risks impact the same task
A model that illustrates the use of a risk register where the risks impact different tasks
A model that illustrates the Risk Categories feature, which allows several tasks to share the same parameters
A model that illustrates the basic features for modeling projects with @RISK
A model that illustrates special ways of treating dates in @RISK simulations

mine a system composed of several identical parts

A basic @RISK model where the system functions if at least k of its n parts function
A version where the values of the parts are correlated
A version that illustrates several of @RISK's Six Sigma functions

ystem with several modules in series, where each module has parts in parallel
A basic @RISK model for finding the system's reliability (the probability that it functions)
A version where the parts are correlated within and across modules
A version that determines the numbers of parts required for the most cost-effective system

A model of an electrical system that illustrates @RISK's Six Sigma functions

A model for building a catapult that illustrates @RISK's Six Sigma functions in the context of DOE
A model for welding a disk onto a ring that illustrates @RISK's Six Sigma functions in the context of DOE
A model that illustrates the use of the Taguchi quadratic loss function to measure uncertain quality
A model for selecting a vendor on the basis of quality and cost

k events that either occur or don't occur

A basic @RISK model for a number of events, any (or all) of which could occur
A version illustrating the RiskMakeInput function for use in sensitivity analysis
A version where dependent events can occur (or not occur) sequentially in time

A model that uses simulation to illustrate the famous central limit theorem
A model that explains Latin Hypercube sampling and illustrates one particular ramification of using it
A model that compares Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling
A model that illustrates the concept of one alternative stochastically dominating others

ating the spread of an infectious disease

A basic @RISK model where infected people are never cured
A version where infected people can possibly be cured but can then become infected again
A basic @RISK model for simulating several years of job movements within an organization
A version that determines the "best" promotion/hiring parameters for a long-term outcome

A model for simulating a best-of-7 game baseball World Series

A model for simulating the NCAA Basketball "March Madness" Tournament
A simulation model for seeing how important a given lead is after early rounds of the tournament

A simple business model that illustrates @RISK's Goal Seek feature

A portfolio model that illustrates @RISK's Goal Seek feature

A basic business model that illustrates @RISK's Stress Analysis feature

An insurance model that illustrates @RISK's Stress Analysis feature

A new product model that illustrates @RISK's Advanced Sensitivity Analysis feature
A basic business model that illustrates @RISK's Advanced Sensitivity Analysis feature

A model that illustrates how @RISK can automatically adjust an "illegal" correlation matrix
A simple business model that illustrates how to add correlation between revenue and cost
A credit risk model with correlation between price and volume
A model that illustrates various ways of specifying correlations between uncertain quantities
A discounted cash flow model with correlated growth rates through time
A hotel booking model with reservation limits and correlated demands for two types of rooms
A portfolio model with correlated assets, including a comparison across different correlation values
A portfolio model with correlations between stock returns
A process capability model with correlated part values
A system reliability model with correlated modules and parts
An example where copulas are fitted to temperature and precipitation data
An example where extremes in a portfolio of stock options are compared using copulas versus correlations
A basic example of fitting a copula to two variables
An extension of the preceding example illustrating how a copula can be added to simulation input cells
Another extension that illustrates how a copula is related to the standardized ranks of the data
An example where extremes in a portfolio of stocks are compared using copulas versus correlations

A model that illustrates how the Time Series Fit feature can be applied to time series data, and how various fits can be compared
A model that illustrates the Time Series Batch Fit feature for fitting distributions to several data variables at once
ect Examples
oft Project and the Industrial or Professional Edition of @RISK)
A model that illustrates how @RISK can be used to correlate task times in a project
A model that illustrates the Parameter Entry Table for storing parameters of task time distributions
A model that illustrates how successor tasks can be chosen randomly according to given probabilities
A model that illustrates @RISK's probabilistic Gantt chart and the probabilities that tasks are critical
A model that illustrates the RiskProjectResourceAdd and RiskProjectResourceRemove functions for adding or removing a resource during a
A model that illustrates the RiskProjectResourceUse function for adding uncertainty to the assignment of resources in a project
A model that illustrates the use of a risk register, a Timescaled Data report. and other features for advanced project modeling
A model that illustrates @RISK's Schedule Audit feature for checking for errors in a project model
A model that illustrates a risk register, a feature that lists possible risk events that can impact a project schedule and costs
A model that illustrates the use of a risk register where multiple risks impact the same task
A model that illustrates the use of a risk register where the risks impact different tasks
A model that illustrates the Risk Categories feature, which allows several tasks to share the same parameters
A model that illustrates the basic features for modeling projects with @RISK
A model that illustrates special ways of treating dates in @RISK simulations

An optimization model for deciding which of sequential house offers to accept

A model for finding optimal discount and full-fare limits on an airline flight
The same model as above but without the RISKOptimizer settings (for following along with the tutorial)
A capital budgeting model with uncertainty about projects' resource and capital usage and their NPVs
A multi-day model for determining when cash should be invested or cash should be obtained
A model for finding the capacity in an e-commerce system that maximizes the 10th percentile of profit
A model for determining optimal hotel reservation limits
A model for finding optimal order quantities when substitute products are competing for total demand
A single-season optimization model for ordering style goods, where ordering can occur after early sales have been observed
A model for determining how to invest over a time horizon to accumulate a down payment for a house
A model for finding the optimal put options in a portfolio of stocks and puts
A portfolio optimization model that applies the Time Series Fit feature to historical stock price data
A product mix model with uncertainty only in product demands
A product mix model with uncertainty in product demands and resource usage
A model for finding the most cost-effective way to build a reliable system of modules and parts

An optimization model for deciding how to invest over a multi-year horizon to achieve a retirement goal
A multi-year optimization model for promoting and hiring workers

A large optimization model for producing multiple SKUs to meet demand (based on a real Palisade case)
An optimization model that determines the best schedule for performing tasks on various machines
 An optimization model for ordering jobs to meet due dates as nearly as possible
An optimization model that determines the best route for a traveling salesperson with uncertain route costs

An optimization model that balances groups of securities in a portfolio

An optimization model that schedules college classes with uncertain enrollments in different time slots
A variation of the traveling salesperson model where there are precedence constraints on the order of towns visited

A model for finding a sequence of optimal portoflios for a sequence of expected levels of return
A model for finding a sequence of optimal designs for a sequence of different budget values

An illustration of penalty functions and how they can be used in soft constraints

A model of an electrical system that illustrates @RISK's Six Sigma functions

A model that illustrates @RISK's Six Sigma functions in a process control setting
A model for building a catapult that illustrates @RISK's six sigma functions in the context of DOE
A model for welding a disk onto a ring that illustrates @RISK's six sigma functions in the context of DOE
A model for selecting a vendor on the basis of quality and cost
A Word file that documents @RISK's six sigma functions
A list of @RISK's six sigma functions: what they mean and how they work

A model that illustrates options for hedging against exchange rate variability, using the Time Series Fit feature on historical exchange rate d
A portfolio model that uses the Time Series Batch Fit feature to project future stock prices from historical stock prices
A model that uses the Time Series Batch Fit feature to project fuel prices in a simulation of the next year's fuel costs
An inventory ordering model that illustrates how the Time Series Define feature can be used to generate demands
A model that illustrates how the Time Series Batch Fit feature can be used to fit several potentially correlated series all at once
A model that illustrates the Time Series Fit feature can be used to generate future forecasts
A portfolio optimization model that applies the Time Series Fit feature to historical stock price data
A model that illustrates how the Time Series Fit feature can be used on a series with trend and seasonality
A model that illustrates the Time Series Fit and Batch Fit features for fitting multiple correlated stock price series

hat illustrate @RISK's Theo (theoretical) statistical functions

A version that finds basic summary statistics of a theoretical distribution
A version that comparies percentiles of triangular and Pert distributions
A version that compares quality measures from Six Sigma simulations to exact calculations with RiskTheo functions

Examples of how alternative parameters can be specified for common distributions

Illustrates how @RISK reports can be customized
A model that illustrates special ways of treating dates in @RISK simulations
Examples that illustrate how @RISK "property" functions can be embedded in other @RISK functions for various functionality
A model that explains Latin Hypercube sampling and illustrates one particular ramification of using it
A model that compares Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling
A model that illustrates the use and syntax of the RiskOutput function
A model that illustrates @RISK's template report option for creating ready-made reports
A model that illustrates the proper way to use multiple RiskSimtable functions
A model that illustrates @RISK's tornado and spider graphs for sensitivity analysis
A model that illustrates @RISK's Summary Trend chart, especially useful for time series outputs
Illustrates how graphs of @RISK inputs/outputs can be included as "thumbnails" in cell comments
A model that illustrates the RiskTruncate function and how @RISK samples from a truncated distribution
of revenue and cost

is to various inputs
mpany to "get in the game"
e on historical exchange rate data

o a time series process

d series all at once

r total demand
been observed

r removing a resource during a simulation

sources in a project
project modeling
ule and costs
fits can be compared
r removing a resource during a simulation
sources in a project
project modeling

ule and costs

been observed
e on historical exchange rate data

d series all at once

ious functionality
0.5 0.5 0.5 @RISK Copula: Copula1
Type GumbelR
Dimension 3
Parameter 2.000
 Stock 1 Stock 2 Stock 3 0 0
Mean Growth Rate 12% 18% 25%
Volatility 25% 35% 50% Final Stock Prices
Initial Stock Price $ 20 $ 30 $ 40 23.885 38.042
# Shares Bought 1000 750 500

Final Portfolio Value

Initial Portfolio Value $ 62,500 $ 78,097

Annual Rate of Return

4.84%

t Copula Gaussian Copula

Probability of a loss 26% 27%
VAR -$ 9,464.38 -$ 8,822.45
 0 @RISK Copula: Copula2
Type Gaussian
Matrix 1.000
51.361 0.700 1.000
0.700 0.700 1.000

Probability of a loss
0.26790385

VAR
-$ 8,416.93