in association with

Market Bulletin 16th September 2010

For a clear view of the Dollar’s pressure

watch the Swiss Franc.
The Technical Trader’s view:
US Dollar - Swiss Franc 3.10
3.05
3.00
2.95 MONTHLY CHART
2.90
2.85
2.80
2.75
2.70 The weakening Dollar is
2.65
2.60
2.55
clearly under pressure to
2.50
2.45 go lower.
2.40
2.35
2.30
2.25
2.20
See how the two attempts
2.15
2.10 to trade back above the
2.05
2.00
1.95
1.1193 Prior Low(s) have
1.90
1.85 come to naught.
1.80
1.75
1.70
1.65
1.60 The market is ratcheting
1.55
1.50
1.45
lower.
1.40
1.35
1.30
1.25 Note too that those two
1.20
1.15
1.10
attempts have set up a
1.05
Low 1.1193 1.00 possible bear Continuation
0.95
0.90
0.85
Triangle… but it has yet to
81 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 010 10 11
0.80
complete.

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This information memorandum has been prepared solely for informational purposes for customers of Seven Days Ahead and is based on publicly available information from sources
believed to be reliable. It is not an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. No representation is made as to the completeness or
accuracy of any statements or forecasts contained herein and no responsibility or liability is accepted for losses arising from transactions undertaken or investments purchased, sold or
held on its recommendation. Consequently, any persons acting on information contained herein do so entirely at their own risk. Although the opinions contained herein were
considered valid at the time of release, financial markets are subject to rapid and unexpected movements. Seven Days Ahead, its associated companies, their directors, employees,
other customers or connected persons may from time to time undertake transactions or deal in investments mentioned in this information memorandum or have a material interest,
relationship or arrangement in relation to them.
 in association with

US Dollar - Swiss Franc 1.36

1.35
1.34
1.33 WEEKLY CHART
1.1275- 1.1374 band of prior Lows - now resistance 1.32
1.31
1.30
1.29
1.28 A closer look at that possible
1.27
1.26
1.25
continuation Triangle….
1.24
1.23
1.22
1.21 We are testing the lower
1.20
1.19
1.18
diagonal at 1.0036 (and
1.17
1.16
rising) – but a confirmed
1.15
1.14 close beneath has yet to be
1.13
1.12 achieved.
1.11
1.10

1.09
1.08 The target of the Triangle is
1.07
1.06 a good deal lower (about
1.05
1.04 0.75).
1.03

1.02

1.01

1.00 Cautious traders should wait

0.99
0.9916 Low
0.98 for a break beneath the
0.97
0.9729 Low
0.96 band of Pivotal support from
2006 A M J J A S O N D 2007 A M J J A S O N D 2008 A M J J A S O N D 2009 A M J J A S O N D 2010 A M J J A S O N D
0.95
the Prior Lows at 0.9729-
0.9916.

US Dollar - Swiss Franc

1.185
1.180
1.175 DAILY CHART
1.170
1.165
1.160
1.155
1.150
The price action at the lower
1.145
1.140 diagonal is typically volatile.
1.135
1.130
1.125
1.120
1.115 Note well the failed rally at
1.110
1.105 the diagonal /horizontal
1.100
1.095
1.090
resistance above the market
1.085
1.080
at 1.0250/ 1.0324.
1.075
1.070
1.065
1.060 Short-term retracements to
1.055
1.050
1.045
that level should be
1.0324 1.040
1.035
sold…for a retest of the
1.030
1.025
Triangular breakout levels
1.020
1.015 around 1.00
1.0067 Low 1.010

1.005
1.000
0.995 We think that will happen.
0.990
0.9916 Low
0.985
0.980

November December 2010 February March April May June July Augus t September October

SEVEN DAYS AHEAD Professional trading guides and recommendations for the World's markets

Authorised and Regulated by the FSA 124 REGENTS PARK ROADLONDON NW18XL TEL +44 (0) 7849 933573
E-MAIL MSTURDY@SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM WWW.SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM
This information memorandum has been prepared solely for informational purposes for customers of Seven Days Ahead and is based on publicly available information from sources
believed to be reliable. It is not an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. No representation is made as to the completeness or
accuracy of any statements or forecasts contained herein and no responsibility or liability is accepted for losses arising from transactions undertaken or investments purchased, sold or
held on its recommendation. Consequently, any persons acting on information contained herein do so entirely at their own risk. Although the opinions contained herein were
considered valid at the time of release, financial markets are subject to rapid and unexpected movements. Seven Days Ahead, its associated companies, their directors, employees,
other customers or connected persons may from time to time undertake transactions or deal in investments mentioned in this information memorandum or have a material interest,
relationship or arrangement in relation to them.
 in association with

The Macro Trader’s view:

The Swiss Franc has enjoyed a strong rally against the Dollar spread over many years with a
brief correction around the turn of the millennia. Although a small economy compared to the
US, it is well known how strong the Swiss economy is and the standard of living is among the
highest in the World.

Currently the Swiss franc has maintained its strength against the Dollar, even as the Euro has
faltered. The Euro zone has many problems and the Sovereign debt crisis of earlier this year
was really a manifestation of structural problems known to have long existed within the Euro
zone but brought to a head by the financial crisis and deep recession.

So while traders are nervous about the health of the US recovery, they also have strong
reservations about the health of the Euro zone and that broadly explains the current inertia of
Dollar/Euro.

The Swiss Franc suffers from no such headaches. The Swiss economy remains strong and
well run and is still regarded as a safe haven for high net worth individuals and a very
competitive place to do business, especially for hedge funds, as other leading financial centres,
especially London, have recently been placed under the cloud of tighter regulation and the
threat of a relatively less friendly environment for financial companies to do business.

Switzerland has benefited from Hedge Funds in particular, looking to relocate out of London to
avoid the feared stricter regime which policy makers regard as necessary to avoid another
future financial crisis, but which at best smacks of closing the stable door after the horse has
bolted and at worst; looking for a scapegoat to cover for regulatory failings and make political
hay.

So traders/investors have turned to the Swiss Franc to express their bearish view of the Dollar.
rather than struggle with:

• timing difficulties currently dogging Dollar/Euro,

• intervention fears surrounding Dollar Yen and
• the fickleness of Gold,

In truth the Swiss authorities may also intervene to stem the Franc’s rise, but longer term the
trend is clear; the Swiss Franc is a strong currency with a long Bull trend against the Dollar and
in the current environment it looks set to continue even with official interest rates set at the
same level: 0.25%.

Mark Sturdy
John Lewis
Seven Days Ahead
SEVEN DAYS AHEAD Professional trading guides and recommendations for the World's markets

Authorised and Regulated by the FSA 124 REGENTS PARK ROADLONDON NW18XL TEL +44 (0) 7849 933573
E-MAIL MSTURDY@SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM WWW.SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM
This information memorandum has been prepared solely for informational purposes for customers of Seven Days Ahead and is based on publicly available information from sources
believed to be reliable. It is not an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. No representation is made as to the completeness or
accuracy of any statements or forecasts contained herein and no responsibility or liability is accepted for losses arising from transactions undertaken or investments purchased, sold or
held on its recommendation. Consequently, any persons acting on information contained herein do so entirely at their own risk. Although the opinions contained herein were
considered valid at the time of release, financial markets are subject to rapid and unexpected movements. Seven Days Ahead, its associated companies, their directors, employees,
other customers or connected persons may from time to time undertake transactions or deal in investments mentioned in this information memorandum or have a material interest,
relationship or arrangement in relation to them.