Professional Documents
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Indian States
CAPSTONE PROJECT
DRAFT
Starting from the Electricity Act of 2003, various reforms have been put into place to modernise
the power sector in India. These policies have predominantly looked at improving the last mile
electricity delivery i.e the state of distribution companies (DISCOMs). In 2015, the government
of India introduced Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY) scheme to address the
cumulative outstanding debt of all DISCOMs to the tune of nearly Rs. 4.3 lakh crore and
accumulated losses to the tune of nearly Rs. 3.8 lakh crore (as on March’15) [1] . One of the
objectives of the scheme is to reduce the cost of power purchase. This is because approximately
75% of the expenditure of DISCOMs is the cost incurred to purchase power. Adding to this is
the increasing requirement of DISCOMs to purchase renewable energy which is costlier in
comparison to conventional sources of power. Thus there is a need for the DISCOMs to be
prudent when it comes to optimising their portfolio of power purchase.
The ministry of power notified in the year 2005 the ‘Guidelines for Determination of Tariff by
Bidding Process for Procurement of Power by Distribution Licensees’. In 2012 the ministry
notified the ‘Guidelines for Short Term Procurement of Electricity by DISCOMs’. These
guidelines were introduced to develop the power market and reduce cost of power procurement
through competition. The guidelines provide for the following types of contracts which the
DISCOMs can enter into:
This would thus enable the DISCOMs to plan ahead of time for meeting the state’s power
requirements as they account for variations in base load and peak load demand over different
durations of time. Additionally these guidelines do not specify any mechanism for procurement
through banking of power as well as through power exchanges. The ‘Open Access Regulations
for Inter-State transmission’ notified by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission
(CERC) in 2008 provide provisions for procurement through power exchanges. Power
Exchanges allow for procurement for durations ranging from one day ahead to 3 months in
advance.
There are primarily three reasons for the need for a short term power market:
1. Uncertainty in demand for power
2. Uncertainty in available capacity
3. Availability of cheaper power
In real time the demand for power fluctuates as per consumers’ drawals. This means that the
demand varies at every point in time. Hence the requirement for real time scheduling of power.
However when we look at the average demand for power for a period of time, we can find
certain patterns based on the time period we are observing. This can be shown with the help of
the example given below:
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
Time
14th Nov-17 13th Nov-17 8th Nov-17
Source – Madhya Pradesh State Load Despatch Centre; (RE – Renewable energy)
Figure 2: Madhya Pradesh demand variation over the year 2015
8000
7500
Demand in MW
7000
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
Time
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
Figure 1 shows the variation in electricity demand catered to by conventional energy sources
for the state of Madhya Pradesh over three days in the month of November of 2017. In all three
days, the drawal has been above the minimum of 8000 MW. Above the minimum, the demand
seems to be following the same pattern for the three day period albeit with some variations.
From the given data points we could say that there is certain demand of 8000 MW but above
which there is a pattern being followed but with uncertain variations.
If the time period is further drilled up to look at aggregate demand over different months, as
shown in Figure 2, we see that the load curves (or demand curves) are not the similar. Thus to
address the uncertainty over different time horizons, there is a need for power procurement
contracts that are based on these time horizons – including short term.
Power plants do not always function at the rated capacity. There are various reasons which can
prevent the power plant from making available the rated capacity. For example, hydroelectric
power plants rely on the availability of flow of water; which can vary over the course of the
year. Hence the available capacity in summer can be less compared to the time in monsoon.
Apart from fuel, maintenance can be a factor which reduces plant availability.
The example below illustrates this:
SATPURA II+III 40 26
SATPURA IV 45 51
SGTPS I & II 50 62
Table 1: Plant Availability Factors for a few thermal power plants in Madhya Pradesh. Source
– MP SLDC
Another important factor is the availability of cheaper power that could have been contracted.
It may be possible that the marginal price of power purchase at two states are different at any
given day. Thus it could be possible for the state currently procuring at higher marginal price
(maybe due to high demand) to procure power from the other state rather than from its own
generation. Additionally this would help optimize utilization of available capacity at lower
cost. This is illustrated with the example below:
Uttarakh…
Daman…
Andhra…
Himachal…
Jammu…
Dadra…
Maharas…
Uttar…
West…
Chhattisg…
0
Bihar
Chandigarh
Puducherry
Goa
Gujarat
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Punjab
Jharkhand
Nagaland
Odisha
Sikkim
Rajasthan
Telangana
Manipur
Tripura
Assam
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
Delhi
Tamil Nadu
The short term transactions in India are carried out in one of the three sources listed below:
1. Power Exchanges
2. Competitive bidding (primarily through traders)
3. Unscheduled Interchange (UI) or Deviation Settlement Mechanism (DSM) market
1. Power Exchanges
The introduction of open access transactions i.e the ability to purchase power directly from
generation, has paved way for setting up of two power exchanges: Indian Energy Exchange
(IEX) and Power Exchange of India (PXI). These have been in operation since 2008 allowing
trade in multiple products. Currently IEX provides the following products – Intraday, Day
Ahead, Daily and Weekly (i.e from intraday up to 11 days in advance).
2. Competitive bidding
Various trading licensees also transact directly (bilateral) with the distribution licensees
through competitive bidding platform provided by the ministry of power. Competitive bidding
allows distribution licensees to plan for a broader period of time compared to power exchanges.
Contracts for a period ranging from one day to one year can be made through the bidding
process.
3. Unscheduled Interchange (UI) or Deviation Settlement Mechanism (DSM)
Electricity Electricity
Volume of
Transacted % of Transacted % of % of
Electricity Other Total
through total through total total
Year Transacted short Short
trading short Power short short
through term term
Licensees term Exchanges term term
DSM (BU)
(BU) (BU)
2009-10 26.72 41% 7.19 11% 25.81 39% 6.18 65.9
2010-11 27.7 34% 15.52 19% 28.08 34% 10.26 81.56
2011-12 35.84 38% 15.54 16% 27.76 29% 15.37 94.51
2012-13 36.12 37% 23.54 24% 24.76 25% 14.52 98.94
2013-14 35.11 34% 30.67 29% 21.47 21% 17.39 104.64
2014-15 34.56 35% 29.40 30% 19.45 20% 15.58 98.99
2015-16 35.43 31% 35.01 30% 20.75 18% 24.04 115.23
2016-17 33.51 28% 41.12 34% 23.22 19% 21.38 119.23
Table 3: Breakup of short term transactions from FY10 to FY17 (All India). Source - Report
on Short-term Power Market in India: 2016-17 – CERC
Table 3 shows the breakup of short term transactions. It is evident that the quantum of
electricity traded through power exchanges has increased from ~11% of total short term
transaction to ~34%. The participation in exchanges has thus seen an improvement. At the
same time the quantum of energy traded through DSM as a percentage of total short has
decreased from ~39% to ~19%. Thus the system as a whole seems to have improved in terms
of deviations from target schedules.
Price of Electricity Price of Electricity
Price of Electricity
Transacted through Transacted through
Year Transacted through
Trading licensees Power Exchanges
DSM (`/kWh)
(`/kWh) (`/kWh)
2009-10 5.26 4.96 4.62
2010-11 4.79 3.47 3.91
2011-12 4.18 3.57 4.09
2012-13 4.33 3.67 3.86
2013-14 4.29 2.90 2.05
2014-15 4.28 3.50 2.26
2015-16 4.11 2.72 1.93
2016-17 3.53 2.50 1.76
Table 4: Price of electricity traded through short term transactions from FY10 to FY17 (All
India). Source - Report on Short-term Power Market in India: 2016-17 – CERC
The average price of electricity per unit traded in short term has also undergone continuous
reduction in prices over the years as seen from Table 4. This provides a better scope for
DISCOMs to optimise the cost of power purchase by engaging further in short-term markets.
The objective for any regulation or guideline concerning short term power procurement is to
provide an effective mechanism to reduce power purchase costs while ensuring availability of
uninterrupted power. Many of the state electricity regulatory authorities have introduced either
guidelines or regulations for short term power procurement.
The following is the current status of short term power procurement regulations across the
states in India:
Table 5: Status of short term power procurement regulations across states in India (as on March
2018)
The regulations/guidelines however only specify a broad set of activities to be undertaken such
as resource planning, approved sources for purchase of electricity, load forecasting techniques,
availability forecasting etc. Specific details are generally provided at the time of filing retail
tariff petitions and in the final retail tariff itself.
In order to plan for short term power procurement, the following parameters are necessary:
These parameters are essential and specified often in the yearly tariff order of respective states.
The tariff order provides forecasted demand, availability and costs for the forthcoming year
along with the retail tariff. The state electricity regulatory authorities compute cost of power
purchase in order to fix the retail supply tariff (Cost plus basis) for the distribution licensees.
This process occurs in two stages:
Since the tariff is based in forecasts, any deviations result in revenue surplus or gap for the
utilities which are carried forward as ‘true-up’ in the future tariffs.
Rajastan
Haryana
Bihar
Orissa
Jharkhand
Gujarat
Andhra Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Madhya Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
Himachal Pradesh
Total Quantum Claimed (MU) Total Quantum Approved (MU)
Figure 4 provides the total quantum of energy purchase claimed by the utilities and approved
by the respective SERC for the tariff order of 2017-18. West Bengal did not file the tariff for
FY18.
As previously seen, short term transactions account for close to 10% of total energy at the
aggregated at the country level. Hence short term transactions should account in similar fashion
when forecasted in the tariff orders. But this is not the case. Most states do not claim or forecast
purchase of short term power.
State Total Total Short Short Short Short
Quantum Quantum term term term as a term as a
Claimed Approved purchase purchase % of % of
(MU) (MU) Claimed Approved total total
(MU) (MU) claimed approved
Andhra Pradesh 57018 56584 0 196 0.0% 0.3%
Uttar Pradesh 123808 120289 862 862 0.7% 0.7%
Bihar 30599 26648 410 410 1.3% 1.5%
Uttarakhand 14204 14385 173 0 1.2% 0.0%
Chhattisgarh 31412 27679 90 1000 0.3% 3.6%
Table 6: Quantum of energy purchase through short term (FY18 tariff orders) – Either
competitive bidding or through exchange
As per Table 6 even among the states that claim transaction in the short term, it accounts for a
very small fraction of the total power purchase.
Banking is an informal means for transacting power between states during a year. Banking
does not involve any financial transaction. It proceeds as follows: State A agrees to supply
during surplus availability to State B (when it is in shortage). In return State B would return
the energy to State A at a different point in time when State A is in shortage.
Banking Sale
Banking purchase Banking purchase Banking Sale
State approved
claimed (MU) approved (MU) claimed (MU)
(MU)
Punjab - - 662 (net) 662 (net)
Himachal Pradesh 1610 - 1610 -
899 (218 next
Uttarakhand 851 899 851
FY)
Table 7: Quantum of energy transaction through banking (FY18 tariff orders)
Banking is currently not covered under CERC regulations. Hence the transactions are seldom
tracked. Though states do not claim any specific quantum in their respective tariff orders,
banking is widely practised by states.
3. Quantum of surplus energy sale
States engage in the sale of surplus energy in order to effectively reduce power purchase
costs (sometimes referred to as fixed cost recovery).
Power purchase costs have two components – Fixed cost (or capacity charge) and Variable
cost (Energy charge). The average power purchase cost, in the total cost (fixed + variable) of
power purchase per unit of energy purchased. The costs widely vary across states. The same
has been represented below.
Figure 5: Average Power Purchase Cost (Rs/unit) – FY18 tariff orders
5.00
4.13 4.01 3.90 3.89 3.87 3.85 3.80
4.00 3.65 3.60 3.55
3.04
2.77
3.00 2.61 2.55
2.00
1.00
0.00
Maharashtra
Uttar Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
Orissa
Jharkhand
Madhya Pradesh
Himachal Pradesh
Gujarat
Haryana
Punjab
Andhra Pradesh
Bihar
Uttarakhand
Rajastan
APPC (Rs/unit) Claimed APPC (Rs/unit) Approved
Madhya Pradesh showcases the least APPC. This can be directly attributed to the revenue from
surplus energy sales. On the other hand Haryana in spite of claiming significant surplus energy
sale as seen previously, the costs are high. This could be attributed to high capacity tied up in
long term contracts. Gujarat is another example where APPC is high due to large tied up
capacity.
Uttar Pradesh
Jharkhand
Madhya
Gujarat
Pradesh
Haryana
Punjab
Bihar
Pradesh
Andhra
The variable costs/energy charge is the cost attributes primarily to the fuel fed into the
generators.
Figure 6 shows the comparison between average variable cost and the average power purchase
cost. The difference between the two can be attributed to the fixed cost. The large component
of fixed cost in many states is as explained previously due to excessive long term contracts
with generators. For Madhya Pradesh it is evident as stated in the last section, that the claimed
surplus energy sale is offsetting the fixed cost. The large fixed costs associated with redundant
capacity is a sign for needing greater involvement in the short term contracts compared to long
term contracts.
Figure 7: Ceiling rate for short term purchase vs APPC vs AVC (Rs/unit) – FY18
Tariff Orders
5.00
4 3.89 4.08 4
3.81 3.60
4.00
3.08
3.00 2.50 2.66 2.6 2.6
2.40 2.35 2.42 2.25
2.00
1.00
0.00
Maharashtra
Uttar Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
Haryana
Punjab
Andhra Pradesh
Bihar
Uttarakhand
Rajastan
The ceiling rate for short term power purchase specifies the maximum per unit rate at which
the DISCOMs can purchase in the short term. The comparison in Figure 7 shows that the basis
for fixing the ceiling rate is based upon the average power purchase cost. This is to ensure that
the APPC is not exceeded. Exceptional cases include Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh where the
ceiling rates are higher than the APPC. This can thus result in actual APPC being higher that
forecasted. Since tariff is set based on APPC, it would lead to a revenue gap for the utility.
Ideally the ceiling rate must not exceed the marginal rate existing at the point of time
(Conventional sources only. Renewables are must run and costlier).
7. Floor price for surplus energy sale
1.00
0.00
Gujarat Punjab Haryana Chhattisgarh Rajastan Madhya
Pradesh
APPC (Rs/unit) Approved
Price of surplus power sale (Rs/unit) approved
Average Variable Cost per unit
The idea behind the floor price for selling surplus energy is recover a portion of the fixed cost.
This implies that the floor price should be greater than the average variable cost. The difference
above AVC covers a fraction of the fixed cost. In the case of Madhya radish, the floor price
seems to exceed the APPC due to the fact that Madhya Pradesh claims to sell unreasonably
large units of energy through surplus, effectively bringing down the fixed cost per unit.
Chhattisgarh interestingly engages heavily on surplus sale as well as short term purchase. If
done prudently this would effectively help in building a cost effective portfolio.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0
Renewable… NCE excluding CPP
8.
WR - Tarapur… TAPP 1&2
Gandhi Sagar Dodson I
Pench SSP
Bargi KSTPS III
MU
Bansagar – I* SIPAT TPS 1
Ban Sagar III VSTP III
Marikheda CGPL
Sardar Sarovar
VSTP II
MU
AVC
UPPCL…
APPC
Gadarwara
Merit Order Despatch
Jaiprakash…
EMCO Power
UMPP Sasan,…
Adani Power 1320 MW
UMPP Sasan,…
Chandrapur 9
APPC
WR - Sipat -II
Koradi R U-8
WR-NTPC…
Koradi10
WR-NTPC…
PARAS UNIT-4
WR – KSTPS
Adani Power 1200 MW
WR - VSTPS -…
KhSTPS-II
AVC
WR - VSTPS-I
CHANDRAPUR - 4
FloorPrice
WR-…
CHANDRAPUR - 6
MB Power,…
(Energy in MU vs VC in Rs/unit)
Ceiling rate
GTPS URAN
(Energy in MU vs VC in Rs/unit)
SGTPS Ext…
KORADI - 7
WR - Kawas…
Parli replacement U 8
Satpura…
KHAPARKHEDA -…
Captive
BHUSAWAL 5
ER-DVC…
PARLI UNIT-6
Energy Charge
WR- NTPC…
Merit Order Despatch – Maharashtra – FY18 Tariff Order
NTPC solapur
Satpura TPS…
Jaypee Bina… BHUSAWAL - 3
Singaji… GANDHAR
PARLI -5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Merit Order Despatch – Gujarat– FY18 Tariff Order (Energy
in MU vs VC in Rs/unit)
16000 16
14000 14
12000 12
10000 10
8000 8
6000 6
4000 4
2000 2
GSECL Sikka…
NTPC-Mauda Stage…
NTPC-Gadarwara…
NTPC-Jhanor
GSECL Kutch Lignite
NTPC-Lara U#2
NTPC-Korba
Captive Power
ACB India Ltd
BECL
NTPC-Sipat - II
GSECL Wanakbori - 7
GSECL Wanakbori 1-6
Others (New)
NPC-Tarapur (1 & 2)
NTPC-Vindhyachal - III
NPC-Tarapur (3 & 4)
GSECL Dhuvaran - 7
GSECL Dhuvaran - 8
NTPC-Vindhyachal - II
NTPC-Vindhyachal - IV
By the principle of Merit Order, the scheduling is done such that the cheapest power is schedule
first. But in order to promote renewable energy, these plants are declared as must run. Apart of
them each state specifies certain plants as must run plants. We see that in the examples above
that all must run plants have greater energy charge.
Further we see in the case of Gujarat that the floor price for sale of power in the short term is
significantly below the marginal price. It should thus be taken care that the quantum and
average price of surplus energy sales offsets the negative effect of purchase from plants close
to marginal price.
In the case of Maharashtra the ceiling rate for short term purchase is well over the marginal
price. Hence it is possible that plants within the state’s contracted capacity can provide cheaper
power compared to short term market.