Petrolera Zuata, Petrozuata C.A.

: Analysis of Sponsor Returns and Debt Coverage Ratios

Assumptions (Change these six RED variables)

Oil Price $12.25
Annual Change in Maya Price 2.5%
Royalty Rate (2001-2008) 1.0%
Royalty Rate (2009-2034) 16.7%
Total Debt Financing $1,450,000
Leverage: Debt/Total Project Cost 60%
Project's Total Cost $2,416,667
Tax Rate 34%

Asset Beta 0.60

Risk-free Rate 6.81%
Market Risk Premium 7.50%
Country Risk Premium 0.00%

Cash
Available Debt
Forecasted Change for Debt Total Total Equity Service
Maya in Maya Total Service Debt Debt Cash Coverage
Year Price Price Revenue (CADS) Outstanding Service Flows Ratio

1996 $12.25 2.5% $0 ($80,007) $0 $0 ($80,000)

1997 $12.56 2.5% $0 ($610,492) $1,000,000 $935,950 ($1,986)
1998 $12.87 2.5% $78,524 ($820,154) $1,024,299 ($63,079) ($550,148)
1999 $13.19 2.5% $429,059 ($139,352) $1,242,981 $113,580 $1,576
2000 $13.52 2.5% $803,290 $243,952 $1,450,000 $85,113 $185,047
2001 $13.86 2.5% $560,499 $383,869 $1,411,120 ($157,629) $227,819 2.44
2002 $14.21 2.5% $580,141 $374,482 $1,372,240 ($154,472) $221,589 2.42
2003 $14.56 2.5% $594,310 $351,470 $1,333,360 ($151,315) $190,031 2.32
2004 $14.93 2.5% $608,833 $383,135 $1,268,892 ($171,563) $214,719 2.23
2005 $15.30 2.5% $623,720 $379,409 $1,205,447 ($165,270) $199,063 2.30
2006 $15.68 2.5% $638,978 $415,819 $1,103,295 ($195,423) $220,578 2.13
2007 $16.07 2.5% $654,618 $416,376 $992,187 ($195,059) $218,294 2.13
2008 $16.47 2.5% $670,649 $417,733 $864,195 ($201,103) $236,588 2.08
2009 $16.89 2.5% $687,081 $364,040 $768,166 ($161,187) $210,755 2.26
2010 $17.31 2.5% $703,924 $353,700 $680,692 ($145,382) $204,461 2.43
2011 $17.74 2.5% $721,187 $359,505 $576,861 ($153,095) $203,439 2.35
2012 $18.19 2.5% $738,882 $367,531 $456,838 ($159,037) $246,435 2.31
2013 $18.64 2.5% $757,020 $309,595 $408,576 ($83,154) $225,711 3.72
2014 $19.11 2.5% $777,179 $351,424 $354,212 ($84,614) $249,243 4.15
2015 $19.58 2.5% $797,905 $396,150 $256,355 ($119,749) $270,635 3.31
2016 $20.07 2.5% $819,214 $401,505 $136,753 ($131,281) $301,785 3.06
2017 $20.57 2.5% $841,125 $416,140 $75,000 ($68,159) $378,858 6.11
2018 $21.09 2.5% $863,657 $375,766 $75,000 ($6,405) $369,361 58.67
2019 $21.62 2.5% $886,827 $371,048 $75,000 ($6,405) $364,643 57.93
2020 $22.16 2.5% $910,657 $356,942 $75,000 ($6,405) $350,537 55.73
2021 $22.71 2.5% $935,167 $389,174 $75,000 ($6,405) $348,472 60.76
2022 $23.28 2.5% $960,377 $399,119 $0 ($75,000) $324,119 5.32
2023 $23.86 2.5% $986,311 $416,986 $0 $416,986
2024 $24.46 2.5% $1,012,990 $428,838 $0 $428,838
2025 $25.07 2.5% $1,040,439 $446,428 $0 $446,428
2026 $25.70 2.5% $1,068,681 $452,818 $0 $452,818
2027 $26.34 2.5% $1,097,743 $470,050 $0 $470,050
2028 $27.00 2.5% $1,127,649 $486,703 $0 $486,703
2029 $27.67 2.5% $1,158,428 $495,374 $0 $495,374
2030 $28.36 2.5% $1,190,108 $499,512 $0 $499,512
2031 $29.07 2.5% $1,222,717 $523,227 $0 $523,227
2032 $29.80 2.5% $1,256,286 $536,947 $0 $536,947
2033 $30.54 2.5% $1,290,846 $556,805 $0 $556,805
 Model Output

Minimum Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) 2.08

Year of Minimum DSCR 2008
Average DSCR 13.01
Internal Rate of Return 25.3%
Net Present Value $315,899

IRR as a Function of the

IRR and Minimum DSCR Output Table Number of Years of Cash Flow

Leverage IRR Min. DSCR Number of Years

25.3% 2.08 With Cash Flow IRR
40% 18.8% 3.05
45% 19.9% 2.73 5 15.8%
50% 21.3% 2.47 10 22.7%
55% 23.0% 2.25 15 24.3%
60% 25.3% 2.08 20 24.9%
65% 28.3% 1.93 25 25.1%
70% 32.5% 1.80 30 25.2%
75% 38.9% 1.69 34 25.3%
80% 48.8% 1.59