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You are on page 1of 6

Semester 1 2017

MATH2801

Theory of Statistics

TOTAL NUMBER OF QUESTIONS - 4

ANSWER ALL QUESTIONS

THE QUESTIONS ARE OF EQUAL VALUE I

THIS PAPER MAY BE RETAINED BY THE CANDIDATE

ONLY CALCULATORS WITH AN AFFIXED "UNSW APPROV ED"

STICKER MAY BE USED

All answers must be written in ink. Except where they are expressly reguired pencils

may· only be used for drawing, sketching or graphical work.

.. '

,.

·,

butions listed in the forrimla sheet of common distributions at the end of the

exam. You may state and use any results in that list without proving them.

a) [7 marks] There are 3 coins in a bag: a copper coin, a gold coin and a

silver coin. When flipped, the probability a coin will come up heads is

0.3 for the yqpper coin, 0.5 for the gold coin and 0. 7 for the silver coin.

In a depar�ment store promotion, points are awarded to some shoppers.

The immber of points is determined by a chance experiment: A coin is

randomly selected from the bag (the three coins are equally likely to be

, .. chosen). The chosen coin is then flipped 10 times. The number of points

awarded is N, the ·numbe1· of heads obtained on the ten flips.

i) Compute the probability a shopper is mvarded no points, that is,

coinpute JP(N = 0). ( Wr�ite an exact expression for the answer ) and

als� give this answer to 4 decimal places.)

ii} ·write an exact expression for JP(N = n) for n = 0, l, ... , 10. ( You are

NOT asked to approximate these to any number of decimal places.)

iin Does N have a binomial �istribution? Give a reason for your answer.

b) [8 marks] Let X and .Y be two random variabl�s with joint density

function:.

1 •

i) Draw a sketch showing the region of the plane for which fx,Y (x, y) >

0. Determine the value of the constant c so that fx,y(x, y) is a valid

bivariate density function.

ii) Determine the marginal density fx (x).

iii) Are X and Y independent? Give a reason for your answer.

!,

iv) Compute IP(X. � Y � ½).

Semester 1 2017 lvfATH2801 Page 3

Let X be an exponential random variable, X rv Exponential(2).

a) [2 marks] Write down fx(x), the density function for X. Hence, deter

mine the cumulative distribution function Fx (x) = JP(X � x).

b) [6 marks] Using your answer to �1art a), or otherwise:

i) Compute the probability JP(X � 2);

ii) Compute the probability JP(X � 4);

iii) Draw a sketch of the density function and use shading to indicate

the areas corresponding to the probabilities in parts (i)) and (ii);

iv) Compute the conditional probability JP(X � 2IX � 4).

c) [3 marks] State E(X) and Var(X). Hence compute E(X2 ).

d) [4 marks) Let Y = X2 + 4. Determine the density function for Y.

a) [8 marks] Let X and Y be independent identically distributed expo

nential random variables, X, Y rv Exponential(2) for i = 1, 2.

i) A) Write down the joint density function fx,y(x, y).

B) Using the joint density function, write down an expression for an

integral which would compute the :p..robabil1ty JP(X + Y < 4).

Include in your answer a sketch· of the region of integration. Note

that you are not asked to evaluate this integral - just to write an

expression and draw the ac,'tompanying sketch.

ii) A) Write down expressions for mx ( u) arid my ( u), the moment gen

erating functions for X and X.

B) Using mx(u) and my(u), determine the moment generating func

tion Mx+Y(u).

C) Hence determine the distribution of liV = X + Y.

b) [7 marks]

i) State the Central Limit Theorem in one of the forms given in this

course.

ii) Let X1 , X2 , ... , X40 be independent identically distributed variables,

Xi rv Exponential(2), ·for i = 1,.2, ... 40.

Set X = (1/40)(X1 + X2 + · · · + X40 ). Using the Central Limit The

orem, compute the probability JP(X � 2.3).

Give your answer in terms of the <1? function.

· In your answer include a sketch I

of a suitable curve with a shaded

area that corresponds to this probability.

Semester 1 2017 MATH2801 Page 4

a) [6 marks] Let X1, X2, ... , Xn be a random sample from a Poisson (,:\)

distribution.

i) Determine the method of moments estimator for ,,\.

ii) Determine the maximum likelihood estimator for ,,\.

iii) Determine the Fisher information In ( ,,\).

b) [9 marks] The Australian Drinking Water guidelines recommend that

drinking water contains no more than 0.05 mg/L of cadmium.

A small dam is sampled to investigate the levels of cadmium to determine

whether the water exceeds this recommended maximum level.

Four water samples are taken and cadmium levels are measured. The

sample mean is 0.07 mg/L and standard deviation is 0.0085 mg/L.

Carry O\lt an appropriate hypothesis test to answer the question by an

swering the following:

i) State the null and alternative hypotheses.

ii) State any assumption( s) you are making in order to carry out this

hypothesis test.

iii) State the formula for the test statistic and the null distribution.

iv) Compute the observed value of the test st<;1tistic.

v) Give an expression for the P-value, and sketch a curve, shading the

area corresponding to the P-value.

vi) You may assume that the P-value= 0.0011 to 4 decimal places. "\i\Trite

a relevant conclusion concerning the cadmium level of the dam.

Semester 1 2017 MATH2801 Page 5

function mx(u) = E(euX)

q+pe

P(X = 0) = q = l - p

Binomial k

(�)p (l - p

)n-� k = 0,l,... ,n np np(l - p) ( 1 - P+peu)n

Bin(n,p)

p -r

(1-p) e-u-l

+p

ebu _eau

Uniform (b - a)- 1 XE (a, b ) ½(a+b) fi(b-a)

2

u(b-a.)

1 _J. X

7Je /3

Exponential(.8) x E (0,oo) 1

.8 .32 l-(3u

2

Normal } x E {-oo, oo} (72 2 2

v'21r a2 2 2 µ

N(µ,a-2 )

e-x//3 x o:-l l a

Gamma (a,.8) I'(a)/30: x E (0, oo) a,8 a,8 2 (1- /3u )

Beta .8(a,.8) I'(a)I'(/3) (l - x)/3-l x E [0,l]

a+/3 (a+f3)�(a+f3+l)

Some formulae

The 4> function, is defined by 4>(z) = P(Z :s; z), for Z rv N(O, 1).

Let X1, ... , Xn be independent N(µ, o- 2) variables. Then X and S2 are independent,

(n - l)S

2

---- rv 2

and a-2 Xn-l'

T he Delta Method

Let 01 , 02 , ... be a sequence of estimators of 0 such that

0 -0

vn -+ N(O, 1).

D

n

o-/

Suppose the function g is differentiable at 0 and g' ( 0) -=I= 0. Then

n

g'(0)o-/fo

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