Lahore School of Economics

BSc IV
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Winter 2016

Name:_____________________ Section:_______________

Date:______________________ Score:________________

Problem set 3

Q.1: The following table shows the yearly sales of yield from 2001 to 2012.

Time
t 𝒀𝒕
2001 80.0
2002 196.0
2003 298.1
2004 600.5
2005 780.6
2006 1650.1
2007 2057.2
2008 3489.6
2009 4050.7
2010 5068.9
2011 7845.3
2012 9096.6

i. Fit a linear trend to the following data. Forecast the value for 2013.
ii. Fit an exponential trend to the following data. Forecast the value for 2013.
iii. Compute MSE and MAPE for both models.
iv. Which trend better fits the data.