Adhika Ardhana Falian Lubis

1306388912

Transportation Engineering

Chapter 8: Sequential Demand Forecasting Models Summary

The trip generation model is to forecast the number of person-trips that will begin from or end in each
travel analysis zone within the region for a typical day of the target year. The total number of person
trips generated will be the dependent variable of the model. The independent or explanatory variables
include land use and socioeconomic factors that has a relationship with trip making. The output of the
trip generation model includes of the amount of trip making or the trip ends od each zone within the
region.

The zones that are used depends on the trip purpose, that includes work trips, school trips, shopping
trips, and social or recreational trips. Separated trip generations models are made for each trip
purpose because the travel behaviour of trip makers depends on the trip purpose.

Another model of the trip generation is the use of geographical patterns of trip makings that are made
by dividing the region into smaller travel analysis zones and by associating the estimated trips with
those zones. The zonal attributes included variables such as the zonal population, the average zonal
income, the average vehicle ownership, and other. If income is not linearly related to trip generation,
a zone based model will not be sensitive to the intrazonal income differences.

Trip generation models predict trips for each zone that are often referred to as the trip ends associated
with that zone. These trip ends may be called as origins and destinations or as productions and
attractions. The definition of origins and destinations are in terms of the direction of a given interzonal
trip. The production and attraction are not defined in terms of directions of the trips but of the land
use associated with each trip end. A trip production is defined as a trip end connected to a non-
residential land use in a zone.

Regression models will be models that can be employed in connection with trip generation studies.
The most appropriate form is based on the experience and preliminary investigations. The frequently
used regression model is the linear multiple regression model in the form of:

𝑌 = 𝑎0 + 𝑎1𝑋1+ . . . . +𝑎𝑟𝑋𝑟

Where Y is the dependent variable, X are the relevant independent or explanatory variables and a are
the parameters of the model that mist be estimated into applying the model.
 Adhika Ardhana Falian Lubis
1306388912

Trip rate analysis refers to several models that are based on the determination of the average trip
production or trip attraction rates that is associated with the important trip generators within the
region.

A cross-classification model are used as a disaggregate models in trip generation studies. In the
residential-generation context, household types are classified according to a set if categories that are
highly correlated with trip making.