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100
70 2020: 43 – 48 MM bpd
60 Projected
Decline
50 2030: 65 – 78 MM bpd
40
30
20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
87% of needed supply must come from re-valuing existing reserves, or from reserves
not yet discovered or declared commercial
13%
28%
Production from reserves not yet discovered or without a
development plan
Nuclear
26%
MMTOE
22% 22%
Coal
22%
Gas
29% 28%
33%
Oil
2008
2008 2008
2030 2030 2030
Business as Usual Sustainable
Development
20 OECD Europe
USA
15
Middle East
10 Brazil
5 India
China
0
US Japan OECD* Brazil China India -2 0 2 4 6 8
6000
3000
Chevron: production growth
2500 rate ~1% p.y. between 2010-
2014 and 4.5% p.y. between
2014-2017
2000
1500
1000
500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
STRATEGIC PLAN PETROBRAS 2020
Source: PFC Energy and Company reports 6
PETROBRAS CORPORATE STRATEGY to 2020
Integrated, profitable growth, on a sustainable basis
Expand operations in target markets for oil, oil products, petrochemicals, gas and energy, biofuels and
distribution and to be recognized as a benchmark among integrated energy companies
Grow oil and gas Expand refining in Consolidate leadership Operate in the Operate in Brazil
Corporate Strategy
production in a Brazil, ensuring in the Brazilian natural petrochemical and abroad in the
sustainable manner, sufficiency in domestic gas market, and sector in activities biofuels sector in
becoming one of the supply and leadership establishing an that are integrated activities that are
five largest oil in distribution, while international presence manner with the integrated with the
producers in the developing export and increasing the other businesses of Petrobras system,
world markets for products, domestic electricity the Petrobras and to do so on a
with emphasis in the generation business system sustainable basisl
Atlantic basin and gas chemical,
emphasizing fertilizers
Business Segment
1% 2%
1%
Brazil and Abroad
2% 3.5
8% 5.1 3.5 International
2.5 2.8 5%
17.8 11.7
118.8
53%
73.6 212.3
33%
95%
Brazil
224
186.6
0.9 26.5%
Phase I
59.4
Phase II
10.5%
Phase I – Identification of Opportunity
Phase II – In Conceptual Phase
Phase III – In Basic Project
Phase IV+ ‐ Authorization for Execution/Implementation/Operations
0% +
Brazilian Content US$ 46.4 billion from Partners
• Petrobras purchases in Brazil of approximately $28 billion per year (versus $20 billion per year in
prior plan)
• Production curve for domestic oil gas production consistent with prior Business Plan
• Production curve does not currently assume any contribution from Transfer of Rights 5,382
120
203
7.1% p.y.
1109
3,907
(Thous. boe/day)
128
4.9% p.y. 9.4% p.y. 176
2,525
2,723 623
2,301 2,400
93
2,217 2,297 97
2,020 110 100 146
2,037 101 141
1,810 94 96 124 384
85 163 142 126 316
22 277 273 321 3,950
35 161 168 274
252 251 265
2,980
1,971 2,100
1,684 1,778 1,792 1,855
1,500 1,540 1,493
1, 078
Pre-Salt
241
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2014 2020
1.183
Oil Production - Brazil Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Gas Production - International
152
STRATEGIC PLAN PETROBRAS 2020
13
PRINCIPAL PROJECTS SCHEDULED DURING 2010-2014
Updated business plan added new projects
Mexilhão
Mexilhão Marlim
Marlim Sul
Sul Guará
Guará Pilot
Pilot FPSO
FPSO Tupi
Tupi NE
NE Pilot
Pilot
NG Antecipation
Antecipation of
of
NG 120,000
120,000 bpd
bpd FPSO
FPSO
SS
SS P-56
P-56 Baleia Azul
Baleia Azul 120,000
120,000 bpd
bpd
Module FPSO
FPSO Espadarte
Espadarte
Uruguá/Tambaú
Uruguá/Tambaú Module 33
Th. bpd 100,000 100,000
100,000 bpd
bpd
FPSO
FPSO Cidade
Cidade de
de Santos
Santos 100,000 bpd
bpd
NG/35,000bpd
NG/35,000bpd
2,980
Tupi
Tupi Pilot
Pilot
2800 Cidade
Cidade de
de Angra
Angra dos
dos
Reis
Reis
100,000
100,000 bpd
bpd
Cachalote
Cachalote ee
Baleia
Baleia Franca
Franca
2400 FPSO Capixaba
FPSO Capixaba Roncador
Roncador Papa-Terra
Papa-Terra Roncador
Roncador
100,000
100,000 bpd
bpd SS
SS P-55
P-55 TLWP
TLWP P-61
P-61 && FPSO
FPSO P-62
P-62
Module
Module 33 FPSO
FPSO P-63
P-63 Module
Module 44
180,000
180,000 bpd
bpd 150,000
150,000 bpd
bpd 180,000
180,000 bpd
bpd
2,100
2000 Tupi
Tupi NE
NE EWT
EWT Jubarte
Jubarte Tiro/Sidon Whales
Tiro/Sidon Whales Park
Park
30.000
30.000 bpd
bpd FPSO
FPSO P-57
P-57 FPSO FPSO P-58
FPSO FPSO P-58
Guará
Guará EWTEWT 180,000
180,000 bpd
bpd 100,000
100,000 bpd
bpd 180,000
180,000 bpd
bpd
Dynamic
Dynamic Producer
Producer
30,000
30,000 bpd
bpd
Aruanã
Aruanã Guaiamá
Guaiamá
Tiro
Tiro EWT
EWT
1600 SS-11
SS-11
FPSO
FPSO FPSO
FPSO
100,000
100,000 bpd
bpd 100,000
100,000 bpd
bpd
30,000
30,000 bpd
bpd
Aruanã
Aruanã EWT
EWT
Cidade
Cidade Rio
Rio das
das Ostras
Ostras 44 EWT
EWT 44 EWT
EWT 33 EWT
EWT 22 EWT
EWT
15,000
15,000 bpd
bpd Pre-salt
Pre-salt Pre-salt
Pre-salt Pre-salt
Pre-salt Pre-salt
Pre-salt
1200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pre-Salt Post-Salt
US$ 33.0 Billion US$ 75.2 Billion
3%
13% 15% 18%
0.9 11.4
4.3 13.7
27.8 50.1
84% 67%
Production
Supply Vessel Drilling Rigs
Platform (FPSO)
RTM
(Refining, Transportation and
Marketing)
and PETROCHEMICALS
BUSINESS PLAN
STRATEGIC PLANPETROBRAS
PETROBRAS2020
2020
17 17
BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION, REFINING AND DEMAND
Long term plans to achieve greater balance and integration
124%
Production
as a % of
refining 132%
110%
kbpd 13%
2,980
3,950
1,971
2,356 3,196
1,933 2,260
1,791 2,794
1,393
1,036
181
• Oil Production and the Brazilian market demand currently exceed refining capacity
• By 2014, exports are projected to reach nearly 1 million bpd, even as refining capacity is
expanded to process Brazilian production to meet demand
1000 1,187
937
769
... 403
... 452
338
0
29%
• Operating improvement and logistics:
• Maintenance
• HSE
Additional capacity Quality and conversion
• Logistics for oil and biofuels
Operational Improvement Fleet expansion
Logistics for oil International
• Investments of US$ 5.1 Billion in
Petrochemical (includes acquisition of
Quattor)
Million m3/day 32
4
41
46
14.4
2.0 53
24.3
5.3
2009 2014
Electrical Generation Industrial Fertilizers Other uses
* 2014 – Thermooelectrical generationa refers to full and simultaneous dispatch of plants
5,997 6,437
1,093 1,090
2010 2014
International Thermoelectrical and Co-generation Renewables Sources
STRATEGIC PLAN PETROBRAS 2020
22
NATURAL GAS BASED FERTILIZERS
Fertilizer plants to take advantage of available gas and infrastructure
2,911
Ammonia Plant
(Dec/14) 2,104
519 th.
ton/year
+160%
Th. ton/year
1,374
1,118 1,076
844
807
274 298
• Manage total demand for gas by transforming natural gas into fertilizers needed by
Brazilian agriculture (substituting demand that is currently imported)
STRATEGIC PLAN PETROBRAS 2020
23
GAS, POWER AND GAS CHEMICAL INVESTMENTS 2010-2014
Transition from investment in infrastructure to gas demand flexibility
Investments 2010-14
US$ 17.8 billion
15%
• Completion of the natural gas transport
30% 2.7 and processing infrastructure
LNG Pipeline network
Electrical Energy Chemical Gas Facilities
(Fertilizers, ammonia)
BUSINESS PLAN PETROBRAS
STRATEGIC PLAN PETROBRAS2020
2020
25
DISTRIBUTION INVESTMENTS 2010-2014
Leading the Brazilian market for distribution, increasing the market share
BR market share in the total and automotive market (%)
38.6 40.0
30.6 33.6
30.4
22.4
BR market share in total market in Brazil (%) BR market share in automotive market in Brazil (%)
800
Reduced investment and production a 632
600 BP 2009-2013
reflection of greater opportunities in Target
400 304 323
Brazil 239 120 - 49%
200 93 128
146 176 203
0
2010 2014 2020
INVESTMENTS 2010-2014:
US$ 11.5 bi Oil and NGL Natural Gas BP 2009-2013 Target
DISTRIBUTION
221 CORPORATE
2% 123
G&E 1% • Development focus: Gulf of Mexico, West Coast of Africa and
186 RTCP
2% 615 Latin America
5%
• Exploration focus: Atlantic Project, West coast of Africa,
aligned with domestic E&P
Thous. m³/year
2,600
% 747
3% +47
+19
507
886
2010 2014
2010 2014
INVESTMENTS 2010-2014:
Ethanol Exports US$ 3.5 Bi
1,055
0.7
5%
+13
Thous. m³/year
449
0.4
2.0
0.4
2010 2014
Ethanol Biodiesel R&D Logistics
BUSINESS PLAN PETROBRAS
STRATEGIC PLAN PETROBRAS2020
2020
29
TECNOLOGICAL CHANGES
3 Key pillars
Expanding Limits
New Exploratory Maximizing Developing Development of Sediments and Solutions for Operational Middle distillate
Frontier recovery factor Production, new generation other fuels Natural Gas Optimization Maximization
Operation and Pre Sea and Subsea characterization logistic in harsh
Salt Logistic Systems of the pre salt environments
and other
complex
reservoirs
Fuel, Lubricants
and special
products Other Renewable Water CO2 and other
innovation Petrochemicals Gas Chemic Biofuels sources Energy management gas management Energetic
Efficiency
Competitiveness/
Sustainability
Using international engineering
patterns and metrics in our
facility projects
Simplification and
Standardization Brazilian Content
Reduction in the complexity Technological
of the projects, using & Engineering Contributing for the consolidation
standard solutions
Drivers of Brazil as a supplying hub with
international competitive level
29%
HSE
46%
IT
R&D
25%
PLAN FINANCING
BUSINESS PLAN
STRATEGIC PLANPETROBRAS
PETROBRAS2020
2020
33
FORECASTED OIL PRICE VERSUS Business PLAN 2010-2014
Petrobras base case planning price at lower end of forecast range
Forecasts: CERA,
140
PIRA, WoodMackenzie, EIA e
130 IEA.
120
110
98
100
90 84
78
80 75
72
69
70
59
60 Petrobras budget price
42 62
50
40 36 33
29 34
29 29
30 27 26 24
23 22
21 22
20 16
10
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
• Conservative assumptions: Despite higher assumed oil prices, stable realization price
STRATEGIC PLAN PETROBRAS 2020
35
CASH GENERATION AND INVESTMENT
Profitable investments funded with cash flow, debt and equity capital
Cash Amortization
US$ 11 billion US$ 38 billion
Funding
(debt + equity)
US$ 96 billion
Investments
US$ 224 billion
OCF
(after dividends)
US$ 155 billion
Sources Uses
• Funding requirements