AJAERD

Journal of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development

Vol. 4(1), pp. 407-415, April, 2018. © www.premierpublishers.org, ISSN: 2167-0477

Research Article

Assessing Agricultural Losses of 2014/2015 Flood Disaster

in Kelantan, Malaysia
*Abdussalam Adamu Jega1, 3, Norsida Man1, 2, Ismail Abd Latiff1, Kelly Wong Kai Seng1
1
Department of Agribusiness and Bioresource Economics, University Putra Malaysia, 43400, Serdang, Selangor,
Malaysia
2
Department of Agricultural Technology, University Putra Malaysia, 43400, Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
3
Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Kebbi State University of Science and Technology, Aliero,
PMB 1144, Kebbi State, Nigeria

Floods account for a significant socio-economic loss against all other natural disasters occurring
in most part of the world in recent decades, especially to small farming communities living along
coastal and low-lying areas. Hence, flood loss assessment which has become an important
segment in decision making processes towards flood risk management needs to be given
adequate attention by the policy makers and/or researchers. This paper therefore, aimed at
describing and examining the extent of agricultural losses of 2014/2015 flood disaster in Kelantan,
Malaysia. Data were gathered from 344 smallholder farmers using multi-stage sampling technique
and analyzed through the use of descriptive (using bar charts) and Paired sample t-test. Findings
of the study revealed that, agricultural losses incurred by farmers were significant at 5% level of
significance for almost all the reported crops, livestock and agricultural assets. The implication
of this study would give an insight to the policy makers in facilitating cost-effective integrated
flood management to avoid future losses. In addition, while promising a baseline data it would
further give an insight to the academicians in employing advanced methods of analysis while
undertaking post disaster damage, loss and needs assessment of flood and/or other natural
disasters in the future.

Keywords: floods disaster, agricultural losses; flood management; smallholder farmers; Kelantan

INTRODUCTION

Floods are the most common and severe of all natural of 59.6% Damage and Loss to Crops against all other
disasters occurring in most parts of the world, causing natural disasters in developing countries as shown in the
serious and devastating economic and social effect on the Figure 1 below.
livelihoods of its victims especially small scale households
who normally lives along the coastal areas (Edward et al.,
2011). One-third of the annual natural disasters worldwide
is flood related, accompanied by direct economic losses
and disruption of well-being of the affected communities
(Brody & Brody, 2007; Messner et al., 2007). The direct
physical effect of flood in rural communities is greatly on
agricultural production, with the serious implications of
lower productivity, in terms of losses in crops, livestock and
agricultural assets (Chan, 2012; Daniela Molinari, Scira *Corresponding author: Abdussalam Adamu Jega, Department
Menoni, 2017; Rayhan, 2008). According to FAO (2015) of Agribusiness and Bioresource Economics, University Putra
floods affect agriculture (crop) sector most, than all other Malaysia, 43400, Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia. E-mail:
natural hazards as it account for an Average Percentage smartaa214@gmail.com

Assessing Agricultural Losses of 2014/2015 Flood Disaster in Kelantan, Malaysia

Jega et al. 408
Average Percentage share of damage and loss to crops by some type of disasters in developing
countries
70
59.6
60
50
Percentage
40
30 22.8
20
10
0
Storms Floods
Type of Disaster
Figure 1: Average Percentage of Damage and Loss to Crops by Some Types of Disasters
Source: FAO based on data from post-disaster needs assessments 2003-2013
As a crucial and important part of decision making process
and policy development in flood risk management,
assessing agricultural losses as a result of flood disaster
is often overlooked in the assessment of flood disaster
impact. According to Romali and Sulaiman (2015) the
success of any society’s flood disaster management
approach depends on the flood damage assessment of the
affected economic sector based on the affected
community. Hence, lessons learned from the assessment
could be applied to disaster scenarios to develop an
improved understanding of disaster resilience building.
However, since agriculture is the main occupation of rural
people in developing economies and also an important
source of livelihoods (FAO, 2015; Musah, E., O., & B.,
2013) its holistic loss assessment should be considered as
an essential part of improving flood risk management (Lim
& Cheong, 2015; Nafari, 2013). Kreibich & Thieken, (2008)
argued that in order to minimize future flood impact in a
sustainable manner, an integrated approach on flood risk
management has to be built on sound analysis and
assessment of flood hazard that affected a peculiar
economic sector or community. Based on these
assertions, this study therefore, aimed assessing the
agricultural losses of 2014/2015 flood disaster in Kelantan,
Malaysia.
Malaysia is a very fast developing country fortunate and
relatively free from different devastating natural disasters
periodically occurring within its neighboring countries.
However, floods remain the only severe type of disaster
occurring with an increasing intensity in recent decades
especially in east coast states (Kelantan, Terengganu and
Pahang) causing significant socioeconomic impact to the
affected population. There are two main types of flooding
in Malaysia, flash and monsoon floods that are reported to
seriously impacted on the lives and environment of
Assessing Agricultural Losses of 2014/2015 Flood Disaster in Kelantan, Malaysia
15.1
1.7 0.7
Droughts Tsunamis Earthquakes
Malaysians (Adnan, 2010). It usually occurs during
monsoonal season in the eastern part of Peninsular
Malaysia causing considerable damages to mostly villages
living along rivers or coastal flood plains, their agriculture
and livelihoods (Aminah Shakirah et al. 2016; Alam et al.
2012). The critical areas in terms of flood economic
damage are located in the state of Kelantan, Terengganu
and Pahang of the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia
(Azimi et al., 2016) Kelantan state was one the most hit
and vulnerable during the 2014/2015 flood disaster
(Aminah Shakirah, et al. 2016; Hua, 2015). The flood was
unexpected, unusual and particularly the biggest and
worst flood for the past 100 years (Wan Ahmad &
Abdurahman, 2015). It serves as the most significant and
largest recorded flood in the history of Kelantan, also
termed as a ‘tsunami-like disaster’. (Aminah Shakirah et
al. 2016; Irani, Siwar, Hossain, & Vijian, 2001; Ngai, 1997)
as also revealed by the Malaysia’s National Security
Council (NSC) that “2014/2015 floods in Kelantan were the
worst recorded in the history of the state”. 202, 000 victims
were displaced (Baharuddin et al. 2014). It has caused a
considerable economic damage to farmers and their
livelihood (Tahir et al., 2015).
Few studies examines flood disaster impact as a whole in
Kelantan, unfortunately also, very few or none were
carried out on assessing the agricultural losses as a result
of flood disaster in the study area, and this can be
attributed to the inadequacy of available data to evaluate
damage to agricultural areas in case of floods (Daniela
Molinari, Scira Menoni, 2017). For this reason, it is vital to
assess the flood disaster effect, in terms of agricultural
losses, which in turn will help the required authorities and
other stakeholders to strategize in flood risk mitigation,
response and recovery in an efficient manner.
 J. Agric. Econ. Rural Devel. 409

Figure 2: Map of Kelantan State

Kelantan state of Peninsular Malaysia is largely an The adopted FAO post disaster damage, loss and needs
agricultural state, with a total area of 15,099 km2 (5,830 assessment in agriculture, stipulates that, the estimated
Sq mi) and a total population of 1, 718, 200. The major production losses from all the sub-sectors of agriculture
agricultural activities in Kelantan State are mainly the will be described as the difference between the pre-
cultivation of paddy rice, rubber, oil palm, fruits and disaster and post-disaster production estimates for the
vegetables. Fishing and livestock farming are also year as show in Table 1 below. MT refers to metric ton of
important occupations found in this area. About two thirds production while $ refers to the equivalent in monetary
of the State is covered by rich tropical forest. Moreover, terms of the production. Hence, Column E = Column A –
the establishment of several industrial estates has Column C and Column F = Column B – Column D
enhanced the manufacturing sector as a major contributor
towards the State's economy. Table 1. The Adopted Sample of FAO Post Disaster
Estimates of Production Losses in Agriculture
Flood occurrence is synonymous to the State (Kelantan) Crops Projected Annual Production
as a result of heavy rainfall during the monsoon, which Crop Production Losses
starts from November to March every year (Hussain, Nor, Pre- Post-
& Ismail, 2014; Khan, Shaari, Achmad, Baten, & Disaster Disaster
Nazaruddin, 2014), with a record-setting rainfall of (MT) $ (MT) $ (MT) $
A B C D E F
1295mm, equivalent to the amount of rain usually seen in
1. Rice
a span of 64 days (Nur, Wan, Nor, Zakaria, & Nazir, 2015).
2. Vegetables
In addition, about 50% of the total land area and 60% of
3. Corn
total population in Kelantan are threatened by flood (Jiang,
4. Oil palm
Deng, Chen, Wu, & Li, 2009)
Fishery
. 1. Tuna, Tilapia etc.
Livestock Kg $ Kg $ Kg $
METHODOLOGY 1. Cattle, goat, sheep etc.
4. Chicken, Duck and
The quantitative nature of this study mandated the use of others
structured questionnaire with clear and answerable Farm assets Qty $ Qty $ Qty $
questions based on FAO post disaster damage, loss and
needs assessment in agriculture. 360 questionnaires were However, while assessing the value of damages/losses,
distributed disproportionately with the aid of multistage pre-disaster prices in local currency should be used, since
sampling technique which ensure that all the target post-disaster prices might be affected by inflation due to
smallholder farmers have an equal chance of being low supply over demand (Ogechukwu Divine-favour, 2015;
selected for the study. However only 344 questionnaires Torrente, 2012). Therefore, in this research estimated
were found to be valid for the analysis, and the remaining production losses/damages in agriculture were described
16 questionnaires were dropped as a result of the problem and valued monetarily in local currency, Malaysian ringgit
of uncompleted questionnaires and missing data. (RM).
Therefore a sample 344 respondents was found to be
adequate for this study as argued by Israel (2008) that a Descriptive and Paired Sample T-Test analyses were used
sample size is considered as good and adequate when it to analyze the data collected, via Microsoft Excel
ranges between 200 and 500. spreadsheet 2013 version. Descriptive statistics was used

Assessing Agricultural Losses of 2014/2015 Flood Disaster in Kelantan, Malaysia

Jega et al. 410

to describe the value of crop, livestock, fisheries and value

of farm assets per district before and after flood while
Paired Sample t-test was used to compare and determine
whether there is statistical evidence that the mean
difference between the paired observations (before and
after) is different from the zero as indicated below.

Ho: μ1 = μ2
H1: μ1 ≠ μ2

Specifically, the paired sample t-test can be stated thus:

χ̄ 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓 − 0
t=
𝑆χ̄

𝑆 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓
Where 𝑆χ̄ =
√𝑛

Where χ̄ difference = sample mean difference

n = sample size Figure 4. Average Value of Vegetables (RM) Before and
S diff = sample standard deviation of the differences After Flood
𝑆χ̄ = estimated standard error of the mean

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

This section described the value of agricultural production

output before and after flood disaster, represented in a bar
diagrams. Figures 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 below revealed that the
output level of all the estimated crops per district
decreased proportionately after the flood disaster, hence
paddy and oil palm can be seen to be the most affected
crops followed by rubber and vegetables.

Figure 5. Average Value of Fruits Output (RM) Before and

After Flood

Figure 3. Average Value of Paddy Output (RM) Before

and After Flood

Figure 6. Average Value of Oil palm Output (RM) Before

and After Flood

Assessing Agricultural Losses of 2014/2015 Flood Disaster in Kelantan, Malaysia

 J. Agric. Econ. Rural Devel. 411

Figure 7. Average Value of Rubber Output (RM) Before and

After Flood Figure 10. Average Value of Sheep (RM) Before and After Flood

However, description in Figure 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 below,

which compares the value of, goat, cattle, sheep, chicken
and fishes before and after flood disaster, showed that
goat and chickens were seen to be the most affected
followed by the fishes, while the value of cattle and sheep
were not adequately reduced after the disaster

Figure 11. Average Value of Chicken (RM) Before and After

Flood

Figure 8. Average Value of Goat (RM) Before and After Flood

Figure 12. Average Value of Fishes (RM) Before and After Flood

Figure 9. Average Value of Cattle (RM) Before and After Flood

Assessing Agricultural Losses of 2014/2015 Flood Disaster in Kelantan, Malaysia

Jega et al. 412
Figure 13 and 14 below, indicated that, reduction in value
of respondent’s farm assets were also quite substantial.
Structures like farmer’s shed/store and simple farm
tools/equipment were totally or partially destroyed after the
flood disaster, according to the respondent the farmer’s
shed/store is used for recess during work hours and/or for
keeping equipment and other farm produce, farm tools
such as hoe, Cutlass, rake, hand sprayer, fish nets and
cages.
Figure 13. Average Value of farm store (RM) Before and
After Flood
Figure 14. Average Value of Simple farm tools (RM)
Before and After Flood
Assessing Agricultural Losses of 2014/2015 Flood Disaster in Kelantan, Malaysia
From these findings, it can be deduced that decline in
production have been recorded in field crops of which
paddy and oil palm were the worst affected, similarly the
affected smallholder farmers also suffered losses in
livestock and farm assets/infrastructures. This study
therefore further its analysis to determine the extent of
flood disaster effect on the affected crops, livestock and
farm assets.
3.1 Paired Sample t-test Analysis
For the empirical analysis shown in Table 2 below,
highlighted the second objective of this paper which is to
examine whether the decline in respondents’ agricultural
outputs after flood is significant. The results showed that,
the average value of paddy, vegetables, rubber and oil
palm were all significant at 5% (p<0.01) indicating that, the
effect on these crops is significant during the 2014/2015
flood. These findings are in agreement with Bandara & Cai
(2014) who in their findings revealed that, the impact of
climate change (flood inclusive) on the agricultural sectors
in South Asian countries was predicted to be significant.
Similarly the study of Twining (2014) on the impact of 2014
flood on agriculture in England confirmed the findings of
this study that, estimates of wheat and oil seed yield
losses is about 20% and 15% respectively. The implication
of these findings is that the negative effect of flood disaster
on crop production is likely to have serious impact on small
holder farmer’s livelihood in terms of food security
(Bandara & Cai, 2014) and income loss (Rana & Islam,
2015) and this might also force them to lose confidence in
agricultural enterprise.
However, Table 2 presents the results on flood effect on
livestock and fishery. Losses were reportedly significant at
5% level of significance for goat, fishes and chicken
(p=0.013; 0.000, 0.003 respectively), but the sheep was
found to be significant at 10% (0.09) while cattle is not
significant (p=0.747)
This result is supported by the study of Looney (2012) who
revealed that approximately 200,000 livestock involving
goat, sheep, cows, buffalo and donkeys were reported to
be severely decimated during Khyber flood in Pakistan, in
which many were sold at 30-50% lower prices for fulfilling
the immediate income needs during and immediately the
flood disaster.
On the effect on farm or agricultural assets the study
results show that, farmers’ shed/store which is (typically
simple edifice for storing grains, farm tools/assets, and
sometimes housing animals) and simple farm tools were
found to be significantly (p= <0.000) affected by the flood
disaster as indicated in Table 2 below.
 J. Agric. Econ. Rural Devel. 413

Table 2. Paired sample t-test results in determining the extent of 2014/2015 Kelantan flood on Agricultural losses
Variable Time Frame Mean S.D t stat t critical two-tail P-value two-tail
Average value of crops output before and after flood (RM)
Value of paddy Before flood 25292.4 18316.3 4.5 1.99 0.000***
After flood 22912.4 18320.1
Value of vegetables Before flood 12195.2 13382 3.31 1.99 0.001***
After flood 8980.9 10486.7
Value of fruits Before flood 13927.2 14595.7 1.5 2.07 0.144
After flood 10900.9 12911.4
Value of rubber Before flood 13092 11704.9 5.4 1.9 0.000***
After flood 10958.5 11508.6
Value of oil palm Before flood 50803.6 49222.5 2.9 2.2 0.01***
After flood 31270.9 32121.3
Average value of some selected livestock and fishery before and after flood (RM)
Value of cattle Before flood 19181.6 12865.4 0.3 2.01 0.747
After flood 18716.3 13728.1
Value of sheep Before flood 5513.3 5684.3 1.7 2.1 0.09**
After flood 4413.3 4750.6
Value of goat Before flood 7308.3 4235.8 2.9 2.2 0.013***
After flood 4233.3 4192.7
Value of chicken Before flood 342 298.9 3.25 2.07 0.003***
After flood 133.3 175.6
Value of fishery Before flood 21696.2 18369.2 4.09 2.07 0.000***
After flood 15494.8 14707.1
Average value of some farm assets before and after flood (RM)
Value of farm shed Before flood 227.5 228.9 6.5 2.02 0.000***
After flood 130 261.8
Value of simple farm tools Before flood 98.3 79.06 7.1 1.99 0.000***
After flood 28.5 59.5
Note: *** Significant at 5%, **significant at 10 % and RM = Malaysian Ringgit

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Assessing Agricultural Losses of 2014/2015 Flood Disaster in Kelantan, Malaysia
J. Agric. Econ. Rural Devel. 415
Accepted 9 April 2018
Citation: Jega A.A., Man N., Latiff A.I., Seng K.W.K.
(2018). Assessing Agricultural Losses of 2014/2015 Flood
Disaster in Kelantan, Malaysia. Journal of Agricultural
Economics and Rural Development, 4(1): 407-415.
Copyright: © 2018 Jega et al. This is an open-access
article distributed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted
use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original author and source are cited.