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There will be an economic impacts of climate change in the National Parks and consequences
seen in new policies as a result. Existing estimations specify that climate change in the National
Parks will possible have a limited impact on the economic welfare of the parks and the visitor’s
well-being. In fact, the initial impacts of climate change in the National Parks may well be
positive. However, in the long run the negative impacts dominate and overtake the positive
ones. Negative impacts will be substantially greater in less funded, hotter regions, and lower-
lying parks. Although climate change may affect the growth rate of the National Parks economic
growth and may trap more parks in low funding situation, quantification of these impacts
remains difficult. The optimal carbon tax in parks within the near future is somewhere between
a few tens and a few hundreds of dollars per ton of carbon a visitor is emitting.
The impacts of climate change in the National Parks are many and diverse. Determining
whether these impacts are beneficial or detrimental, small or large, depends on the location,
and time need to be considered. Unfortunately, a reading of any literature on the impacts of
climate change weather in the parks or not is likely to leave an untrained reader confused. It is
very difficult to make sense of the many and different effects: glaciers melting, sea-levels rising,
heat stress increasing, cold stress decreasing, wild fires increasing, coral bleaching, shifting
migration pattern and animal ranges, disease spreading, species going extinct. Thus, it is
needed to assess indicators to evaluate whether climate change is, on balance, a good thing or
a terrible thing for the parks and whether the climate threat is small or large economic problem
for the Park Service. Focusing in on two indicators will demonstrate the problem more clearly;
first the impact of climate change on the economic welfare of the National Parks and the
The impacts of climate change on the economic welfare of the National Parks are
numerous. There are currently 419 units of the National Park Service, that all hold a stake in
total economic impact of climate change. There are countless theories published about the
overall effects of climate change on the economy, though not as much is out there about these
impacts on the National Parks. Also, these estimates of the financial impacts of climate change have
no foundation in true economic theory. Considering that no estimation is perfect, especially when
focusing on the National Parks specifically. The best way to get accurate results is with transparency and
simplicity, generalizing in the far future. Clearly estimations are a thin foundation for drawing definitive
conclusions about the economic welfare and impacts of climate change in the National Parks. Moreover,
the estimations for increased warming indicate that most researchers disagree on the sign of the clear
impacts, were some estimations are positive impacts and most others are negative impacts. Thus, it is
unclear whether climate change will lead to financial gain or loss in the National Parks. At the same
time, however, despite the variety of methods used to estimate welfare impacts, most agree on the
order of scale, with the economic changes caused by climate change being equivalent across the board.
These estimations suggest that climate change is about as bad for financial stability as other
unsustainable economic growth. This all suggests that the economic impacts of early warming trends
are positive on total financial stability, though the continued warming will lead to financial instability
and unmaintainable damages to the National Park economic welfare. These impacts cannot be thought
about in a liner fashion, one must consider the entire system and how these impacts affect all
stakeholders throughout the system. The initially positive effects do not consider the continued
greenhouse gas emissions that are negatively impacting the environment and ecosystems within the
National Parks. The total impacts to the environment are negative even with the early effects to the
economic welfare being positive. Thus the initial take-home benefits of climate change in the National
Park are ruined benefits, meaning that the economy will see these financial gain no matter what
The uncertainty about these estimations of the impact of climate change on economic
welfare in the National Parks is rather significant. It is important to note, however, that the
uncertainty indicated that, negative surprises are more likely than positive surprises of similar
scope. This is true for both greenhouse gases emissions and the climate itself. For example, it is
easier to imagine a world that burns a large portion of coal than a world that rapidly switches to
wind and solar power. Feedback loops that are accelerate climate change are likely to be stronger
than feedbacks that reduce warming. Furthermore, the impacts of climate change are typically
found to be more than linear. That is, if climate change doubles, its impacts more than double (see
figure 1). Many researchers have painted dismal scenarios of climate change (Myers 1993; Chalko
2001; Stern et al. 2006; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics 2012;
Oppenheimer et al. 2014). However, no one has credibly suggested that climate change will make us
all blissfully happy. In light of these uncertainties and asymmetries, the earlier conclusion that a
century of climate change is about as good/bad for welfare as a year of economic growth needs to
be rephrased: A century of climate change is likely to be no worse than losing a decade of economic
growth.