Climate Change Seen Through National Parks

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 Is Climate Change Threatening the National Parks?

Yellowstone the first national Park was established in 1872, 44 years later the National Park

Service was established by an act of Congress. Since then 416 units of the national Park system

have been preserved and protected across the country. Today these beautifully preserved areas

are threatened by forces of nature that are changing at alarming rates. Climate change is global

force that is forever altering and, in some cases, destroying these beloved places. Currently

rapidly changing climate challenges the national parks in ways we've never seen before.

Glaciers are retreating at an unprecedented rate, sea levels are rising, increasingly destructive

storms threaten cultural resources and park facilities and habitat is disrupted and lost at

alarmingly fast degrees. I will conduct research to help conclude that climate change is affecting

our national parks and the impacts its having.

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 Introduction

Our national parks are a

testament to the reality of climate

change. Disappearing glaciers, sea

level rise, shifting migration

patterns, and coastal erosion, are

only a couple examples of the many

ways that these beautiful, unique,

and vulnerable National Parks are

seeing the effects of climate change. Our parks are laboratories for important science and

educated management decisions. The National Park also play a critical role in educating the

public about how climate change is affecting us and impacting places we care about. Our parks

teach us how climate change worked in the past and how it is affects us more rapidly today and

they can give us insight into ways to protect these special places in the future.

Climate science is a broad area of study that includes atmospheric science, physical

geography, oceanography, and biogeochemistry. Understanding how the climate is changing,

involves more than the study of weather statistics, it considers longer-term factors like

atmospheric conditions, sea level, ocean temperature and evaporation rates, and rates of

melting of the world's glaciers and icecaps. Our planet has experienced many shifts in its

climate over time. Earth's temperature fluctuates naturally, and, over millions of years, life has

adapted to such changes. Currently, the Earth's overall temperature is steadily rising. The

resulting change in climate is a cause for concern because of the rapid rate of change, which is

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mainly due to an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activity.

Science suggests that we are now living with hotter temperatures than people have ever

experienced in all human history, and the rapid rate of change challenges the ability of living

things to adapt. Change is the most powerful force in nature, and places like islands are

particularly susceptible to it. The parks have seen unprecedented climate change in the last few

decades and climatologists expect the rate of change to increase. As climate changes,

significant changes in weather conditions impact the natural environment by shifting patterns

of precipitation, promoting extremes in storm behavior, and influencing bird migration, invasive

species spread, coral reef decline, and much more. Organizations such as the United States

Geographical Survey and the Pacific Island Networks has undertaken the systematic long-term

monitoring of a wide variety of natural resources to accurately determine if change is occurring

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and why. Average temperatures on Pacific islands have risen by 0.5°F over the past century.

Moreover, temperatures at higher elevations in Hawaii are now increasing by 0.48°F per

decade. A warming climate increases the frequency and intensity of tropical storms and

droughts.

Vegetation

Climate change will cause shifts in the distributions of plant species. Current native

vegetation in National Parks provide important ecosystem services such as erosion control, soil

conservation, carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, and maintenance of water quality.

Climate-induced shifts in the species compositions of these communities may alter their

ecosystem services. A very relevant, and largely unaddressed, research question is how will

climate change interact with biotic change to alter ecosystem structure, function, and services?

If shifts in vegetation simply involve replacement of species with similar functional roles,

impacts on ecosystem services would be modest. However, if climate change creates new

temporal niches and novel climates in the National Parks then it will be the outcome of climate-

vegetation interactions that determines shifts in ecological services.

Hawaii has experienced a statewide decline in rainfall over the past two decades, which

is predicted to continue. Projections of future climate depend on developing models that use

existing weather data. Weather information is routinely recorded at stations in and near all

PACN parks. The recent addition of several new park weather stations allows for near real-time

tracking of weather conditions as well as providing climate modelers with more data to better

predict the future climate.

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 The health of

Glacier National Parks

ecosystems is threatened

by the ramifications of

climate change. These

changes are often more

severe in mountain areas

where species habitat can

be narrow and fragmented. Research into alpine environments is aimed at obtaining a better

understanding of how sensitive areas are responding to warming temperatures, melting alpine

glaciers, altered water flow, shifting vegetation patterns, and a changing fire regime. Alpine

areas are known to harbor a rich diversity of rare and endemic plants. A plant’s effectiveness at

dispersal and migration plays a role in the structure and function of terrestrial communities.

Some rare plants are slow to migrate or disperse when compared to annual or invasive plants.

Climate change has already altered tree distribution and ranges in Glacier. Over the last

century, tree li ne has shifted up in elevation and subalpine tree species are encroaching into

higher elevations. Data collected by Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine

Environments (GLORIA), shows that similar changes have been documented in alpine plants in

other parts of the world, notably the European Alps. Glacier is a leader in a North American

branch of GLORIA, with four sites on the east side of the park monitored every five years. It

takes many, many years of monitoring to see a trend within a data set. Alpine plants are

generally low-growing and long-living. Because of their remote locations, alpine plant

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communities have been relatively unaffected by human land use in the past, but these changes

in vegetative patterns are early warnings of potential harm to plant richness, diversity, and

well-being. Monitoring of alpine areas will continue. It helps managers to better understand the

effects climate change may have on the vegetation communities throughout the Crown of the

Continent Ecosystem and the world. Climate change has direct impacts on the movement,

migration, and habitats of wildlife. Although there are uncertainties in exactly how climate

change will affect distinct species; some generalizations can be made based on life histories of

distinct species.

Wildlife

Changes in climate and extreme weather events have already begun to affect

biodiversity in the National Parks and across the globe. As climate change also worsens other

threats like habitat destruction, overexploitation, and disease will continue to impact wildlife.

From the shrinking habitat of the pika to increased water scarcity driving human-wildlife

conflict, these changes will become more pronounced in years to come.

Climate change has direct

impacts on the movement,

migration, and habitats of wildlife in

Glacier National Park. Although

there are uncertainties in exactly

how climate change will affect

varied species, some generalizations

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can be made based on life histories of different species. Species that are mobile with large

geographic ranges, and are more generalists in their diet, can tolerate a wide range of climatic

conditions and will likely better adapt to a changing climate. Endemic specialists may decline

with the reduction of alpine habitat. A species such as the wolverine, which is dependent on

persistent spring snow cover for denning, will have less habitat available as warmer

temperatures reduce site availability and connectivity between sites. The distribution of

vegetation will be altered by climate change as well, which will directly alter the availability of

wildlife habitat.

Higher elevation habitats in Pacific island national parks provide the primary refuge for

native plants and animals. These elevations allow native birds in Hawaii to persist in areas

where a threat like malaria-transmitting mosquitoes is low. Similarly, native vegetation

throughout the Pacific tends to thrive where human disturbance is minimal, and conditions are

not suitable for the plant and animal invaders that have transformed lower elevations. Warmer

conditions allow avian disease-carrying mosquitoes to survive at higher elevations. This forces

native birds to migrate even higher or face extinction. As the climate changes, these and other

habitats are no longer certain refuges. Ninety-three percent of Hawaiian birds and 62% of all

U.S. Pacific island birds are considered vulnerable to climate change. The National Park Service

(NPS) is doing its part to learn about land bird population changes with the conclusion of the

first land bird monitoring cycle at some National Parks. The cycle repeats at each park every five

years. Wet forests, mangroves, coastal strand habitats, and sub-alpine shrublands are

vulnerable vegetation communities that are also monitored on a five-year cycle. Projected rises

in sea level and increases in large storm frequency may impact coastal strand and mangrove

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forests while inland vegetation may experience drier and warmer conditions. Invasive plant

species may become even more competitive, especially at higher elevations, as climatic

conditions become more suitable. The NPS monitors both established and colonizing invasive

species in the same habitats where vegetation communities are monitored

Water

As the earth's temperature continues

to rise, we can expect a significant impact on

our fresh water supplies with the potential

for devastating effects on these

resources. As temperatures increase,

evaporation increases, sometimes resulting

in droughts. The US is currently in one of the

most severe, multi-state, multi-year

droughts in decades. In addition, rising

temperatures are melting glacial ice at an

unprecedented rate. Glaciers are an

important source of freshwater worldwide, and some, like those at Glacier National Park, are in

danger of disappearing within the 21st century. Once these glaciers have melted away, they

can't be restored. Areas that previously depended on glaciers for freshwater will then have to

seek other sources.

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 Water is abundant in Glacier in the form of glaciers, snowfields, ice patches, lakes,

streams, wetlands, and rivers. All these features provide critical water resources for human,

wildlife, and vegetation communities. However, warmer and more variable winter and spring

air temperatures have caused more precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow and has led to

earlier snowmelt in the spring. As this trend continues, reduced winter snowpack and glacial

loss will greatly decrease the major sources of groundwater recharge and summer runoff,

resulting in a lowering of water levels in streams, rivers, lakes, and wetlands during the growing

season. As water levels are lowered, the amount of habitat in streams for invertebrates and fish

will be reduced, and lower groundwater tables will alter the riparian vegetation communities.

Without glacial melt water, summer water temperatures will rise and may cause the local

extinction of temperature sensitive aquatic species. These alterations in temperature could

lead to a disruption of the aquatic food chain, which may impact keystone aquatic species such

as the native bull trout. The effects will be felt in areas farther away from mountain landscapes

as well. It is estimated that nearly 50% of freshwater used by humans is sourced from

mountains. As temperatures increase, and droughts become more frequent, the demands for

agricultural and municipal water use are likely to increase, further reducing

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available water resources.

Freshwater is the most valuable natural resource on Pacific islands for both people and

the unique creatures that live in freshwater habitats. Water quality and quantity both below

and above ground may be affected by climate change as rainfall declines and warmer

temperatures promote evapotranspiration. At the same time, the rate of sea level rise is

increasing (over one inch of rise per decade in Hawaii and groundwater discharge to coastal

environments can be reduced due to human withdrawal upslope. Treasured resources such as

unique near-shore anchialine pools in Hawaii and wells on Guam may experience rising salinity

as these hydrologic trends continue. Perennial freshwater streams are rare on Pacific islands.

Many still support unique native creatures especially in the upper stream reaches where

invasive aquatic species are less established. The NPS annually monitors groundwater, water

quality, and freshwater animals to provide managers the information they need to safeguard

these waters and the native crustaceans, fish,

and snails that inhabit them.

Oceans may absorb up to 90% of

atmospheric CO2 over the next 1000 years,

providing Earth with a huge buffering capacity

against even more rapid climate change. However, this is already resulting in changes to the

oceans, namely ocean acidification. Coral reef ecosystems and the great diversity of creatures

that depend on them are especially threatened because their stony coral skeletons will not be

able to form if the water is too acidic. Coral organisms are also very sensitive to heat stress and

expel their colorful symbiotic algae (bleaching) when the water warms. Bleaching due to higher

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sea surface temperatures is increasing in the Pacific. Disease, reduced growth, and death often

follow. In the next 50 years, temperature and CO2 levels are predicted to increase beyond

levels that coral reefs have experienced for the past half million years.

Economic

The impacts of climate change on the economic welfare of the National Parks are

numerous. There are currently 419 units of the National Park Service, that all hold a stake in

total economic impact of climate change. There are countless theories published about the

overall effects of climate change on the economy, though not as much is out there about these

impacts on the National Parks. Also, these estimates of the financial impacts of climate change

have no foundation in true economic theory. Considering that no estimation is perfect,

especially when focusing on the National Parks specifically. The best way to get accurate results

is with transparency and simplicity, generalizing in the far future. Clearly estimations are a thin

foundation for drawing definitive conclusions about the economic welfare and impacts of

climate change in the National Parks. Moreover, the estimations for increased warming indicate

that most researchers disagree on the sign of the clear impacts, were some estimations are

positive impacts and most others are negative impacts. Thus, it is unclear whether climate

change will lead to financial gain or loss in the National Parks. At the same time, however,

despite the variety of methods used to estimate welfare impacts, most agree on the order of

scale, with the economic changes caused by climate change being equivalent across the board.

These estimations suggest that climate change is about as bad for financial stability as other

unsustainable economic growth. This all suggests that the economic impacts of early warming

trends are positive on total financial stability, though the continued warming will lead to

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financial instability and unmaintainable damages to the National Park economic welfare. These

impacts cannot be thought about in a liner fashion, one must consider the entire system and

how these impacts affect all stakeholders throughout the system. The initially positive effects

do not consider the continued greenhouse gas emissions that are negatively impacting the

environment and ecosystems within the National Parks. The total impacts to the environment

are negative even with the early effects to the economic welfare being positive. Thus, the initial

take-home benefits of climate change in the National Park are ruined benefits, meaning that

the economy will see these financial gains no matter what happens to our emissions or the

harm done to the environment.

The uncertainty about these estimations of the impact of climate change on economic

welfare in the National Parks is rather significant. It is important to note, however, that the

uncertainty indicated that, negative surprises are more likely than positive surprises of similar

scope. This is true for both greenhouse gases emissions and the climate itself. For example, it is

easier to imagine a world that burns a substantial portion of coal than a world that rapidly

switches to wind and solar power. Feedback loops that are accelerate climate change are likely

to be stronger than feedbacks that reduce warming. Furthermore, the impacts of climate

change are typically found to be more than linear. That is, if climate change doubles, its impacts

more than double. The second law of thermodynamics states that the entropy of any isolated

system always increases, meaning in this case that as the impacts of climate change increase

the systems it is will gradually decline into disorder.

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Qualitative research

Quantitative research

Review

Conclusion

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