CARBON EMISSIONS

“If the planet is like an oven, it's still possible to turn down the temperature”, Barry Brook.

Mother Earth is extracting a heavy price for humans’ deliberate ignorance,

extravagant lifestyles and callous policies. This is clearly of great concern,
because even two degrees of warming could trigger irreversible melting ice
sheets and a rise in sea levels, a large expansion of tropical zones leading to
persistent droughts in the mid latitudes, and longer, hotter, more frequent
heat waves and associated hazards.

They showed that when long-term changes brought about by climate change
are considered, the total global warming expected from a doubling of CO2 is
about six degrees. So at anywhere approaching six degrees, it's a completely
transformed planet - a world hostile to most species.

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and
oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. According to a report by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global surface temperature
increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over the period 1906-2005 [1]. The global scientific community
asserts that most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the 20th century
was caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (mainly CO2), which results
from human activity such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation.

Climate model projections summarized in the

latest IPCC report indicate that the global
surface temperature is likely to rise a further
1.1 to 6.4 °C during the 21st century [1]. The
uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use
of models with differing sensitivity to
greenhouse gas concentrations and the use of
differing estimates of future greenhouse gas
emissions.

Figure 1: Global Warming Predictions [2]

CO2 concentrations are continuing to rise due to burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.
The future rate of rise will depend on uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and
natural developments. Accordingly, the IPCC report on emissions gives a wide range of
future CO2 scenarios, ranging from 541 to 970ppm by the year 2100 [1].
 WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK FACTSHEET

Why is our current energy pathway unsustainable?

Global energy use is set to fall in 2009, for the first time since 1981 on a significant scale- as
a result of the financial and economic crisis but demand is set to resume its long term
upward trend once the economic recovery gathers pace.

• By 2030, the world primary energy demand will be 40% higher than in 2007.

• Fossil fuels remain the dominant sources of energy worldwide accounting for 77%
of the demand increase in 2007-2030 [2].

• Although oil demand is expected to drop by 2.2% in 2009 as a whole, it is

projected to recover from 2010 as the world economy pulls out of recession rising
from 85 million barrels/day to 105 million barrels/day in 2030.

• In 2007-2030, demand for coal grows by 53% and demand for natural gas by
42%.

• Electricity demand grows by 76% in 2007-2030 requiring 4800GM of capacity

additions.

What might a low-carbon energy future look like?

• Without a change in policy, the world is on a path for a rise in global temperature
up to 6°C, with catastrophic consequences for our climate. To avoid the most
severe weather and sea-level rise and limit the temperature increase to about
2°C, the greenhouse-gas concentration needs to be stabilized at around 450ppm
CO2 equivalent.

• In the 450 Scenario, global energy-related CO2 emissions need to peak just
before 2020 at 30.9 Giga tonnes (Gt) and decline thereafter to 26.4Gt in 2030 –
which is 34% less than in the Reference Scenario. The 450 Scenario is achievable
– but very challenging. Early retirement of old, inefficient coal plants and their
replacement by more efficient coal or gas fired power plants accounts for an
additional 5% of the global emissions reduction [2].
 CARBON EMISSIONS IN PAKISTAN

During last three decades, Pakistan has faced mass urbanization, huge population growth,
many fold increase in vehicles and industrial development. As a result, the demand of more
energy in form of fossil fuels increased for domestic, industrial and transportation purpose.
Total per-capita energy consumption in Pakistan is 12.4 million BTUs (1 BTUs = 1,055.055
joules) that contributes 0.9 metric tons per-capita energy related CO2 emission in
environment.

The rate of emission of CO2 is not only rapid

but it is showing a regular and positive trend
without any significant down fall throughout
the computed time. It is observed that the
CO2 emission in atmosphere has reached up
to 161 million metric tons in 2007 that was
just 39 million metric tons in 1980. This
increase in CO2 is the result of mass
urbanization and energy consumption in
Pakistan.

In order to see the impact on the

environment through our life style, we need
to calculate the CO2 emission factor from
everyday electrical appliances and
automobiles based on energy consumption
figures.

• PERSONAL COMPUTER:

Average power of PC =118W

Average usage = 8 hrs/day
Power of PC = 0.944 KWh

No. of PCs in Pakistan = 5.71 Million [3]

CO2 emission from one PC = 0.3512 mT

CO2 emissions from all PCs= 2005352 mT

• TELEVISIONS:

Average power of CRT TV (21”) = 650W

Average usage = 8hrs/day
Power of CRT-TV = 5.2 KWh

No. of CRT-TV in Pakistan = 9900000 [4]

CO2 emissions from one CRT-TV = 0.0704 x 10-3 mT
CO2 emissions from all CRT-TVs = 696.96 mT

Average power of LCD TV = 111W

Average usage = 8hrs/day
Power of LCD-TV = 0.888 KWh

No. of LCD-TV in Pakistan = 40078 [4]

CO2 emissions from one CRT-TV = 0.1224 x 10-3 mT

CO2 emissions from all LCD-TVs = 4.9857 mT

• MOBILE PHONES:

Average power of mobile phone = 0.25W

Average usage = 24 hrs/day
Power of mobile phone = 0.006 KWh

No. of mobile phones in Pakistan = 97 Million [4]

CO2 emissions from one mobile phone = 0.0684 x 10-3 mT

CO2 emissions from all LCD-TVs = 6634.8 mT

• TRANSPORT:

Passenger vehicles are defined as 2-axle 4-tire

vehicles, including passenger cars, vans, pickup
trucks, and sport/utility vehicles. The vehicle
distribution in Pakistan is shown in the figure.

No. of cars on road in Pakistan= 9413800 [5]

CO2 emissions from single car = 5.23 mT

CO2 emissions from all cars = 49234174 mT

• AGRICULTURE:

Less than 5% of the total area of Pakistan is under forest. The rate of deforestation has
reached up to 1.5% and is very alarming. Deforestation in Pakistan is rising due to the
increasing demand for Timber and fuel wood as well as the common practice of
uncontrolled grazing.

Deforestation is having threat against ecosystem and weakening the relation between
human, nature and ecosystem. It is a contributor to global warming and is often cited as one
of the major causes enhanced green house effect.

It is responsible for approximately 20% of world greenhouse gas emissions. According to

the Inter-governmental panel on climate deforestation, mainly in tropical areas, could
account for up to one-third of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. However,
recent calculations suggest that carbon dioxide emissions from deforestation and forest
degradation contribute about 12% of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions with a
range from 6 to 17%.[6]

CO2 emission from land

Forest land (ha) Other wooded land (ha)
cover change

1902000 1389000 31.58 mT

• ENERGY RESOURCES:

The major energy sources in Pakistan include coal,

natural gas, and petrol. With reference to the
statistical data from Hydrocarbon Development
Institute of Pakistan, we can calculate the carbon
emissions from the energy resources in Pakistan.

• COAL:

Annual energy consumption of coal = 4822 Million tones [7]

CO2 emission from one ton of coal = 2.6 mT [8]

Annual CO2 emission from coal = 12537.2 million mT

• NATURAL GAS:

Annual energy consumption of gas = 931700 mmcft [7]

CO2 emission from one cu ft of gas = 0.1206 pounds = 54.7 x 10-6 mT [8]

Annual CO2 emissions from petrol= 50.96 mT

• PETROL:

Annual energy consumption of petrol = 12892 tones [7]

CO2 emission from one ton of petrol = 3.76 mT [8]
Annual CO2 emission from petrol = 48473.92 mT

• ELECTRICITY:
Annual energy consumption of electricity = 55614 x 106 KWh [7]

CO2 emission from one KWh of electricity= 7.18 x 10-4 mT [8]

Annual CO2 emission from electricity = 39930852 mT

PAKISTAN YET TO BENEFIT FROM CARBON MARKET:

With developing countries taking advantage of increasing opportunities, Pakistan is yet to

benefit from carbon market that can greatly help improve environmental conditions and
provide a major boost to the national economy.

The latest market data showed that carbon market has so far increased up to 5 billion
dollars and it is projected to exceed after US’s participation in the carbon trading. The
government has set up a National Authority for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) at the
environment ministry with an aim to raise awareness and enhance participation by the
Pakistani companies in the CDM projects. Pakistan’s participation would help in dealing with
climate and energy crises and provide an opportunity to the western companies who have
been trying to meet the targets of reducing carbon emissions.

Approximately, more than 300 million carbon credits equivalent to one metric ton of carbon
dioxide have so far been created and these credits are traded on commodities markets. 7
CDM projects presented by Pakistan have been approved and 25 projects are under
consideration [9].

CARBON EMISSION MEASUREMENTS:

A simple block level diagram for a system

measuring CO2 is shown in the figure.

The smoke sample is taken from a source

out of which the other green house gases
(methane and nitric oxide) are differentiated
from CO2. This sample is processed in an
intelligent system environment (e.g carbon
sensors that are available in the markets
and are widely used in the carbon emission tests in the U.S state inspections).

After processing, the results are transmitted to the central database and the display unit
over the wireless link.

A simple system capable of measuring carbon content can be proposed as shown in the
figure:
 CONCLUSION:

In this research, we analyzed data to show the rapid urbanization, industrialization and
population and vehicles growth which played a critical role in the consumption of fossil fuels
during 1947 to 2009. During 1990 to 2008, the percentage growth in vehicles is double than
that of population growth during this time period. During 1980 to 2007, the consumption of
oil and petrol, natural gas and coal increased to 219%, 365% and 287%, respectively. The
emission of CO2 jumped from 39 million metric tons in 1980 to 151 million metric tons in
2007.
Many strategies can be adopted and measures can be taken by the local, provincial and
federal government to save the huge amount consumed in term of utilization of oil, petrol
and imports of vehicles and their parts.
The energy consumption and CO2 emission can be reduced by managing sustainable urban
development through (i) developing of efficient urban transport system (ii) starting the
subway tram system (iii) using alternative energy resources as solar energy, wind energy
and bio fuels. It will help to reduce at least 40% of the consumption of fossil fuels and CO2
emission and will be helpful in saving large amount of national capital.
BIBLIOGRAPHY:

1. Climate change 2007 Mitigation- Fourth Assessment Report of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
2. iea world energy outlook factsheet 2009

3. Pakistan computer bureau report.

4. Federal bureau of statistics.

5. National transport research centre.

6. agriculture

7. hydrocarbon sources

8. climate neutral calculator

9. news reference.