2011

1.

2.
 2011

3.

4.

5.
2012/173, 2014/177, 2015/165

• 110
p.45
1.
 q ( 200 )
q ( 110 90 )

90 110 /

186(214.5)
182.3 (210.8) 5.3

9.6 17.5 36.0 122.9(151.4) 15.8 27.9 32.5 111.4(139.9)

+6.2 +10.4 -3.5 -11.5
 •
110

1.

2. …

3.

4.

5.
1.
2.
IPCC 1995 1880
14

14 cm

20, 50, or 100 cm?

 1995 6
IS92a / 2100 50-100
1.
 100~105 years:
↓
↓ ↓↑
↓↑ ↑
↓↑
↑ ↓↑
↑ ↓↑
↓↑
vs.
1084 km3 35 m 30,000 km2
39.3 km3 /
22.2 km3 /
 2002 11 6

• 2000 0.14 km3 2007 0.07 km3

350 100 m 1m
•
…
up to 16 mm/yr >> global warming
 …

•
10 15

• https://www.youtube.c
om/watch?v=0vnneP8n
aTA

• CO2
60-80 m
 80 m

80 m
 1 mm/yr, or 10
cm/100 yrs, or 1 m/kyr

1,5000-6000 yr, ~120 m: 13 0.3 mm/year

 6,000

1 2

Venice, Italy
Venice, Italy
 1966 11 4
1.2

• 5000

• 100
2005 vs. 2009
 2 6
1.8 mm/yr vs. 3.2 mm/yr
• Wars for land, food, water, shelter…
Case 1:
1,200 plus /habitable: ~200
 1 2 km2
1 1.5 m 3m

• 20 0.8 2 m

• Male < 2 km2 > 53,000

Exit Saigon, Since 1975
•
• 1987 3 7

• 1987 3 7

19
•
Case 2:

/
vs.
~46
~579

38/34
2.
3. 1/1,000
•
• 1 cm 10 m
• 2050 0.5 km
940612 940616

940615 940615
 2013

1.

2.

3.