New message platform for

2018’s key battlegrounds

Findings from Wave 1 of Battleground web-panel & phone survey

April 2018
Innovative new research program
BATTLEGROUND ON-GOING RAE+
PHONE POLL BATTLEGROUND PANEL

3 phone polls in 2018: 3 web-surveys in 2018:

April 5-12 April 4-16 among 3,137
Among 3,137 unmarried women,
1,000 registered voters millennials, minorities (RAE) +
Voter file matched white working class women

65% reached on cell phones Voter file matched

Taking political & cultural measures With ‘touch-ins’ between waves

nationally & among the RAE+
Tracking changing attitudes
Vote preference &engagement
To compare & weight RAE+ panel
to offset bias of online sample Conduct message tests to discover
persuasion & turnout targets

Unless otherwise stated, the results shown are among the RAE (unmarried women, minorities and millennials) plus
white working class women. 1
 (Republican PVI advantage) (PVI – even) (Democratic PVI advantage)

DIVERSE BATTLEGROUND STATES

Arizona (+5), Colorado (+1), Florida (+2), Georgia (+5), Nevada (+1),
New Mexico (+3)
• Criteria: less than 70% white only population
• Combined Diverse State demographics:
• 64% RAE (33% minority, 31% unmarried women, 30% millennial)
• 23% white working class women.

RUST BELT + BATTLEGROUND STATES

Michigan (+1), Minnesota (+1), Ohio (+3), Pennsylvania (-),
Tennessee (+14), Wisconsin (-)
• Criteria: more than 70% white only population
• Combined Rust Belt+ state demographics:
• 47% RAE (13% minority, 20% unmarried women, 28% millennial)
• 31% white working class women.

2
 *retiring/term-limited *named candidate of incumbent party *named challenger

GOVERNOR SEATS:
• Democratic Incumbent: Colorado**, Minnesota**, Pennsylvania
• Republican Incumbent: Arizona, Florida*, Georgia**, Michigan***,
Nevada**, New Mexico***, Ohio**, Tennessee*, Wisconsin

SENATE SEATS:
• Democratic incumbent: Florida*, Michigan, Minnesota*, New Mexico*,
Ohio*, Pennsylvania*, Wisconsin
• Republican incumbent: Arizona**, Nevada*, Tennessee***

HOUSE SEATS:
• 57% Republican-held, 43% Democrat-held
• DCCC Battleground Seats: AZ-1, AZ-2, CO-6, FL-6, FL-7, FL-18, FL-26,
MI-8, MI-11, MN-1, MN-2, MN-3, MN-7, MN-8, NM-2, NV-3, PA-6, PA-8
3
Recommendations:
MESSAGE: STOP SHORT-TERM FOR RICH THREATENING OUR FUTURE
Stop politicians and their huge tax-giveaway to the big corporations and the richest 1%
which will blow-up percent that will blow up and endanger our future. We need to invest
in education and infrastructure, not cut them. We need to protect Social Security,
Medicare and Medicaid, not threaten your hard-earned retirement.
ATTACK : ENOUGH POLITICAL GAMES ON HEALTH CARE COSTS
Donald Trump and Republicans promised [STATE] better, cheaper health care. Instead
they supported plans to massively cut Medicaid, raise prices on older workers, and
eliminate protection for pre-existing conditions. Drug and insurance companies even got
a new tax cut even though they are still raising prices on us here in my state. Enough
politics and broken promises on health care.
LITMUS TEST:
X Supported cuts to Medicare & Social Security to address the rising federal budget
deficit.
X Supported the efforts to cut Medicaid, raise premiums & rates for those with pre-
existing conditions.
X Opposed universal background checks and an assault weapon ban.
EMOTIONAL RESPONSE FRAMES:
“I’m shocked” “I can’t believe it” 4
2018 election all about interest and intensity
How interested are you in the elections in November? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no
Now let me ask you about the election for Congress. Did you vote for (ROTATE) the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested.
And how much do the elections this November for U.S. Congress and other state and local offices matter this year? Please rate
how much they matter from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning they don't matter at all and 10 meaning they matter tremendously.

%10 INTEREST IN ELECTION & ELECTION MATTERS

52 54
50 48
46
43 42
40 39
36
32 31 32
24 25
18

InterestMatters InterestMatters InterestMatters InterestMatters InterestMatters InterestMatters InterestMatters InterestMatters

White White White

African White Unmarried
Hispanic Millennials Millennial Unmarried Working
American Millennial Women
Women Women Class Women

RAE+ battleground web-survey.

5
Messaging produces major shifts in interest in voting in November
How interested are you in the elections in November? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no
interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested.

SHIFT IN %10 INTEREST IN ELECTION

+6 +3 +12 +8 +7 +6 +5 +8

52
46 45 47
43 43 42 44
40 39
37 36
32 32
24 25

Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask

Rising White White

African White Unmarried
American Hispanic Millennials Unmarried Working
American Millennials Women
Electorate Women Class Women

RAE+ battleground web-survey.

6
Democrats have daunting lead on enthusiasm
How interested are you in the elections in November? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no
interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested.
And how much do the elections this November for U.S. Congress and other state and local offices matter this year? Please rate
how much they matter from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning they don't matter at all and 10 meaning they matter tremendously.

SHIFT IN %10 INTEREST IN ELECTION & ELECTION MATTERS

+6 +7 +5 +6

51 51
43 45 44 42
37 37 37 39
32 31

Interest Interest Matters Interest Interest Matters Interest Interest Matters Interest Interest Matters
initial re-ask initial re-ask initial re-ask Initial Re-ask
Rising
American Democrats Independents Republicans
Electorate
RAE+ battleground web-survey. Displaying Democrats with Democratic-leaning independents, independents,
and Republicans with Republican-leaning independents by RAE only. 7
Democrats intensely opposed to Trump
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is doing his job as President?

TRUMP JOB PERFORMANCE

Strongly approve Strongly disapprove
+24 +78 +72

86

38
11 57
22

49 14
77

62
89
Rising
American Democrats Republicans
Electorate

RAE+ battleground web-survey. Displaying Democrats, and Republicans among RAE only.
8
THE STATE OF THE
BATTLEGROUND

9
Democrats running way ahead of Trump in the battlegrounds
Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in your district/Governor in your state/Senate in your state in November 2018, will you
vote for – (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)?

BALLOTS VS. 2016 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE IN BATTLEGROUND

ALL REGISTERED VOTERS & 2016 VOTERS IN BATTLEGROUND
Democratic Candidate in 2018/Clinton in 2016 Republican Candidate in 2018/Trump in 2016
+12 +4

+3 +8 +2 +3 +1

50
49 49
46 46
45 45
44
43
42

2016 Presidential Vote 2018 Senate Ballot 2018 Congressional 2016 Presidential Vote 2018 Governor Ballot
Ballot
Senate Battleground States Governor Battleground States

All registered voters in battleground phone survey. Compared to the 2016 presidential vote across the 12 governor race and 10
Senate race states. 10
Strong lead in Senate & House ballot, heated Governor races
Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in your district/Governor in your state/Senate in your state in November 2018, will you
vote for – (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)?

CONGRESSIONAL, GOVERNOR, SENATE BALLOTS

ALL REGISTERED VOTERS RAE PANEL RESPONDENTS
IN BATTLEGROUND IN BATTLEGROUND
Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate
+8 +2 +1 +19 +22 +20

56 57 55
50
45 43 45 44
42
37 35 35

Senate Congress Governor Senate Congress Governor

All registered voters in battleground phone survey / RAE+ battleground web-survey among RAE only.
11
Senate candidate are candidates for change
Thinking about the election for Senate in your state in November 2018, will you vote for – (Democratic candidate) or (Republican
candidate)? / Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have
gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

SENATE VOTE & COUNTRY DIRECTION

ALL REGISTERED VOTERS IN BATTLEGROUND
Democratic candidate/Wrong track Republican candidate/right track
+10 +9 +5 +20

56
52 50
46
42 41 41
36

Senate Vote Country Direction Senate Vote Country Direction

Democratic Held Senate Seat Republican Held Senate Seat

All registered voters in battleground phone survey.

12
Stunning opportunities in RAE base
Thinking about the election for Senate in your state in November, will you vote for – (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican
candidate)?

SENATE BATTLEGROUND VOTE

Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate

+28 +87 +83 +18 +3 +31 +15 +14 +8 +23 +31 +6 +14 +4 +3

90 91

61 62
58 57
53 50 51 50 53 47
48
46 43 44 43 44 47
40 39
33 35 35 37 34 31
27

3 8
Total Diverse Rust Diverse Rust Diverse Rust Diverse Rust Diverse Rust Diverse Rust Diverse Rust
Belt+ Belt+ Belt+ Belt+ Belt+ Belt+ Belt+

White
African Millennial White Unmarried White Working
Hispanic Millennial Unmarried
American Women Millennial Women Class Women
Women

RAE+ battleground web-survey.

13
Dems leading in DCCC battleground and Diverse states
Thinking about the election for Congress in your district in November 2018, will you vote for -- the Democratic candidate or the Republican
candidate? How certain are you that you would vote for the (CANDIDATE) -- are you very certain, somewhat certain or not certain at all?

CONGRESSIONAL VOTE
ALL REGISTERED VOTERS IN BATTLEGROUND
Strong Dem Weak Dem Strong Rep Weak Rep

+24 +15 +10

55 49
37
45 32 40

25 30
46
31
39
52
Democratic Held Republican Held
DCCC Battleground
House Seats House Seats

All registered voters in battleground phone survey.

14
Unmarried women 2-to-1 & winning white unmarried women
Thinking about the election for Congress in your district in November 2018, will you vote for -- the Democratic candidate or the Republican
candidate? How certain are you that you would vote for the (CANDIDATE) -- are you very certain, somewhat certain or not certain at all?

CONGRESSIONAL VOTE MARGIN

Strong Dem Weak Dem Strong Rep Weak Rep
+25 +89 +82 +22 +5 +7 +6 +32 +28 +8 +11 +17 +12

90 91

60 56 63 60
48 51 51
42 41 38 39
68 70
43 36 29 43 42 33 35
26 24 25 25
20 7 16 19 20
1 27 25 30 26 25 35 31
9
35 34 31 32
43 47 43 40
49 55 51
Rust Rust Rust Rust Rust Rust
Total Diverse Diverse Diverse Diverse Diverse Diverse
Belt+ Belt+ Belt+ Belt+ Belt+ Belt+
White White Working
Hispanic African American Millennial White Millennial Unmarried Women Unmarried Women Class Women

RAE+ battleground web-survey.

15
Dems lead diverse gov. races, GOP non-diverse, incumbent party favored
Thinking about the election for Governor in your state in November, will you vote for – (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican
candidate)? How certain are you that you would vote for the (CANDIDATE) -- are you very certain, somewhat certain or not certain at all?

GOVERNOR VOTE MARGIN

ALL REGISTERED VOTERS IN BATTLEGROUND
Strong Dem Weak Dem Strong Rep Weak Rep

+9 +3 +5 +4

49 43 46 43

20 28 27 25
22 27 22 28

40 46 41 47

Democratic Republican Diverse Rust Belt+

Held State Held State States States
All registered voters in battleground phone survey.
16
Unmarried women, especially white unmarried women, key to
Democratic vote in Governor races
Thinking about the election for Governor in your state in November, will you vote for – (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican
candidate)?

GOVERNOR BATTLEGROUND VOTE

Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate

+28 +72 +76 +26 -- +3 +9 +31 +24 +11 +10 +12 +11

87
78

59 60 58
55 52 52
49 51 51
45 45 46 43
40 41 41 40 40
31 34
29 29

6 11
Total Diverse Rust Diverse Rust Diverse Rust Diverse Rust Diverse Rust Diverse Rust
Belt+ Belt+ Belt+ Belt+ Belt+ Belt+
African White White Working
Hispanic Millennial White Millennial Unmarried Women Unmarried Women Class Women
American

RAE+ battleground web-survey.

17
ECONOMY

18
6-in-10 base, swing battleground voters: wages don’t keep up
Please tell me which one you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right.

The economy isn't very strong for families like

The economy is strong and families like mine
mine because our salaries and incomes can't
are beginning to be more financially secure.
keep up with the cost of living.
Much more Somewhat more Much more Somewhat more
African Americans 36 14 33 64 +28

Hispanic 38 15 32 62 +24

Millennials 44 15 28 56 +12

White Millennials 45 15 28 55 +10

Unmarried Women 36 11 37 64 +28

White Unmarried
Women
38 12 34 62 +24

White Working
Class Women
43 16 28 57 +14

RAE+ battleground web-survey. 19

Majority says no tax cut benefit, especially unmarried women & African Americans
Please tell me which one you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right.

I think the new tax cut law is I don't think the new tax cut law is
benefitting me personally. benefitting me personally.
Much more Somewhat more Much more Somewhat more
African Americans 31 15 50 69 +38

Hispanic 42 17 30 58 +16

Millennials 45 19 29 55 +10

White Millennials 48 20 25 52 +4

Unmarried Women 31 13 42 69 +38

White Unmarried
Women 32 13 41 68 +36

White Working
Class Women
39 13 28 61 +22

RAE+ battleground web-survey. 20

Majorities concerned with the Trump & GOP spending – from which they do
not benefit and will pay for down the road
Please tell me which one you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right.

I am not really worried about the increase in the I am worried about the increase in the deficit
deficit under Donald Trump and Republicans. under Donald Trump and Republicans.
Much more Somewhat more Much more Somewhat more
African Americans 23 11 57 77 +54

Hispanic 32 13 47 68 +36

Millennials 41 14 35 59 +18

White Millennials 45 15 30 45 --

Unmarried Women 30 10 47 70 +40

White Unmarried
Women 36 12 40 64 +28
White Working
Class Women 46 15 31 54 +8

RAE+ battleground web-survey 21

GOP VULNERABILITY
TO ATTACKS

22
Democrats very strong on Social Security & health care costs, less on economy
Please indicate whether, overall, you think the Democrats or Donald Trump and the Republicans would do a better a job.

BETTER JOB IN BATTLEGROUND

Republicans much better Republicans somewhat better Democrats much better Democrats somewhat better

The environment 33 16 42 67 +34

Keeping us out of wars 35 16 37 65 +30

Social Security 41 20 38 59 +18

The cost of health care 42 21 35 58 +16

Gun violence 43 23 36 57 +14

The economy 44 26 31 56 +12

Immigration 45 31 37 55 +10

Taxes 45 24 30 55 +10

RAE+ battleground web-survey 23

GOP vulnerable on Medicare & Social Security, guns, health costs
These are some positions of some candidates for the US Congress and other offices in your state. For each, please indicate whether
that position would lead you to support or oppose that candidate for office, or whether that position won't make a difference to how
you decide to vote.
Oppose much more Oppose somewhat
CANDIDATE LITMUS TEST
Support much more Support somewhat NO
NET
DIFF
Supports cuts to Medicare & Social
Security to address the budget deficit. 71 55 6 18 +53 +11

Supports universal background checks

17 9 52 73 +56 +10
and an assault weapon ban.

Supports the attempts to cut Medicaid,

raise premiums & eliminate ACA 66 48 9 20 +46 +14
protections for pre-existing conditions.

Supports a woman's right to choose. 21 12 46 65 +43 +14

Supports funding a wall on the Southern 49 +10 +12

U.S. border.
36 23 39

RAE+ battleground web-survey. 24

Not as moved by daily headlines
These are some positions of some candidates for the US Congress and other offices in your state. For each, please indicate whether
that position would lead you to support or oppose that candidate for office, or whether that position won't make a difference to how
you decide to vote.

CANDIDATE LITMUS TEST Oppose much more Oppose somewhat

continued Support much more Support somewhat NO
NET
DIFF
Supports a pathway to citizenship for
21 11 33 60 +39 +20
DREAMers.

Supports the special counsel's

investigation of Russian interference in the 23 14 33 51 +28 +26
2016 election.

Believes Donald Trump and his policies

37 29 33 48 +11 +15
discriminate against minorities.

Supports a work requirement for Medicaid

recipients & cuts to food stamps. 40 22 23 48 +8 +12

Supports the new tax cuts for individuals

34 17 22 48 +14 +18
and corporations.

RAE+ battleground web-survey. 25

Split on ACA, but Medicaid is extremely popular
Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE
feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

MEDICAID
Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25)
+4 +42 +58 +36 +37 +44 +39 +32 +41
Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean:
49.7 65.1 72.5 64.0 63.9 66.1 61.2 60.2 65.0

70 61
46 60 56 58 53 59
56

39 51 39 41 37 38
34 36 32
12 8 14 12 12 13 15 12
36 12
18 20 19 17 19 21 18
42
ACA Medicaid White
African Unmarried Working Dem Held Rep Held
Hispanics Millennial
Rising American Americans Women Class Gov Seats Gov Seats
Electorate Women

RAE+ battleground web-survey.

26
Battleground voters have embraced the students of Parkland
Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE
feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

THE STUDENT OF PARKLAND, FLORIDA

ALL REGISTERED VOTERS IN BATTLEGROUND
Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25)
+25 +60 +36 +27 +49 +26 +13 +53
Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean:
63.1 79.7 65.5 63.0 76.1 66.0 44.6 75.1

70
48 49 60 65
54 47
28
63 51 56
40 42 40 40
19
19 9 14 18 10 16 11
31
10 18 11 12
23 22 21
41
White White
African Unmarried Working Working College
Total RV Hispanic Millennials
Americans Women Class Class Women
Women Men

All registered voters in battleground phone survey.

27
RAE base is pro-immigration
Please tell me which one you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right.

Immigrants today are a burden on our country

Immigrants today strengthen our country
because they take our jobs, housing and health
because of their hard work and talents.
care.
Much more Somewhat more Much more Somewhat more
Diverse State Rising
American Electorate 37 17 36 63 +26

Rust Belt+ Rising

American Electorate 46 19 28 54 +8

African Americans 21 5 49 79 +58

Hispanic 33 20 44 67 +34

Millennials 44 17 30 56 +12

Unmarried Women 40 18 32 60 +20

White Working
Class Women
56 27 19 44 +12

RAE+ battleground web-survey. 28

Health leads top Democratic attack in battleground
These are some things that Democrats are saying about the Republicans running for US Congress and offices in your state. For each, please
indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, somewhat serious doubts, minor doubts, and no real doubts about the Republican candidate.

DEMOCRATIC ATTACKS Very serious doubts

Somewhat serious doubts
ENOUGH POLITICS W/ HEALTH COSTS: Republicans promised my state
better, cheaper health care. Instead they supported plans to massively cut RAE+ 38 56
Medicaid, raise prices on older workers, and eliminate protection for pre-existing
conditions. Drug and insurance companies even got a new tax cut even though
they are still raising prices on us here in my state. Enough politics and broken RAE 40 57
promises on health care.

TRICKLE DOWN CUT MEANS LESS INVESTMENT: Trickle-down economics

only works for the rich and big corporations, not middle class families of my
state. But Republicans like my opponent supported the new $2.2 trillion trickle- RAE+ 37 54
down tax law which gives 83 percent of the cuts to the top 1 percent, including
their big corporate campaign donors. That is money that should have been used 38 56
to invest in public schools, infrastructure, and bringing down health care costs
RAE
here in my state.

ENOUGH NRA GUN INACTION: Sandy Hook, Orlando, Las Vegas, Texas, and
now Parkland. For too long Republicans beholden to the NRA gun lobby's
campaign contributions have held commonsense gun laws hostage. My opponent RAE+ 37 52
is taking donations from the NRA and gun manufacturers and refuses to stand with
our children begging for universal background checks and a ban on assault
weapons. (SPLIT A) Enough is enough! / (SPLIT B) I support the Second
RAE 39 55
Amendment but enough is enough!

RAE+ battleground web-survey.

29
Health care costs attack tops but guns & trickle-down also potent
These are some things that Democrats are saying about the Republicans running for US Congress and offices in your state. For each, please
indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, somewhat serious doubts, minor doubts, and no real doubts about the Republican candidate.

ENOUGH POLITICS WITH HEALTH CARE COSTS

TRICKLE-DOWN TAX CUT MEANS LESS INVESTMENT
ENOUGH NRA GUN INACTION
Very serious doubts Somewhat serious doubts

68 72 67
61 62 62 63 59 59 59 56 56
56 54
51 52 49 50 50 46 47 51 48
46

56 56 52
41 40 43 46 43 43 42 38 41
31 31 32 36 34 36 29 29 29 34 31 32

White
White
African Millennial White Unmarried Working
Hispanic Millennials Unmarried
Americans Women Millennials Women Class
Women
Women

RAE+ battleground web-survey. 30

GOP gun inaction gets most intense doubts across nearly every
millennial group when you don’t state 2nd amendment support
These are some things that Democrats are saying about the Republicans running for US Congress and offices in your state. For each, please
indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, somewhat serious doubts, minor doubts, and no real doubts about the Republican candidate.

ENOUGH POLITICS WITH HEALTH CARE COSTS

TRICKLE-DOWN TAX CUT MEANS LESS INVESTMENT
ENOUGH NRA GUN INACTION [+SUPPORT FOR 2nd AMENDMENT]
Very serious doubts Somewhat serious doubts

61 63 57 65
52 50 54 56
49 53 46 53 50 52
47
41 42 41

44 42 48 42
32 31 36 30 31 32 25 26 32 30 36 26 28 27

Diverse Rust Belt+ Minority Minority White White

State State Millennial Millennial Millennial Millennial
Millennials Millennials Women Men Women Men

RAE+ battleground web-survey. Displaying the “Enough NRA inaction” by best performing split. 31
Emotional responses to Trump’s handling of foreign affairs
President Trump is doing thing other presidents were reluctant to do, like meeting with the leader of North Korea,
imposing trade sanctions , and calling out close allies to their faces to change long-standing arrangements. Which
TWO of the following statements most closely match your feelings about this?

TRUMP HANDLING OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

ALL REGISTERED VOTERS IN BATTLEGROUND
Democrats Independents Republicans
54
Scared to death 19
10
52
I can't believe it 30
24
23
What can I do? 33
17
19
I'm tuned out 11
8
17
My eyes are covered 7
8
9
Thank God, at last 35
70
9
I was right 14
32
All registered voters in battleground phone survey. 32
NEW MESSAGE PLATFORM
FOR 2018

33
Strongest message: stop short-term cuts for rich that threaten future
These are some things that DEMOCRATS running for US Congress and offices in your state are saying. For each, please indicate whether
you are much more likely, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, or no more likely to support the DEMOCRATIC candidate who says that.
Much more likely to support Democrat

DEMOCRATIC MESSAGES Somewhat more likely to support Democrat

STOP SHORT-TERM FOR RICH THREATENING OUR FUTURE: My state

needs a plan for a better future, not more short-term political deals and short- RAE+ 44 62
sighted cuts to the things we need. We need to invest in education and
infrastructure, not cut them. We need to protect Social Security and Medicare, 46 64
not threaten your retirement with more tax cuts for the rich and corporations. RAE

FED UP WITH RIGGED ECONOMY: I'm fed up. Our economy and politics are
rigged against hard-working people here in my state. Corporate donors are
spending unlimited sums supporting my opponent to get their way. I will say no RAE+ 41 58
to big money and trickle-down economics (SPLIT: and make sure the rich and
corporations pay their fair share of taxes) so we can help people with the rising
cost of health care, childcare, housing and student debt and protect Social RAE 42 59
Security and Medicare

BREAK THE POLARIZATION: Like you, I am done with all of the polarization
dividing our families and gridlocking out government so nothing good gets RAE+
done. I will be an independent voice for people here in my state and will work
37 59
with anyone, Democrat or Republican, to fix our problems. That is how we will
help people with the rising cost of health care, childcare, housing and student RAE 39 61
debt and protect Social Security and Medicare

RAE+ battleground web-survey.

34
 “Somehow or another you're going to pay for it.”
African American woman, Detroit

“I think that the difference is going to have to be made up at some point and it's going
to come from the middle-class not from the. 1 or. 01 percent that just are retaining
billions. We're getting $250. We're going to pay back those trillions back. “
White college woman, Southfield

“To hear about them making cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security when the
people who already receive those benefits are already struggling as it is. Especially our
seniors.”
White working class older woman, Macomb

“I mean [Trump] could give you like 2 or 3 thousand [dollars a year] but when we're
paying 12 thousand a year for insurance, the 2 or 3 is nothing. It doesn't mean
anything. It just doesn't make any difference to me. Unless you're going to put
something into healthcare for me, I don't care. “
White college woman, Southfield

35
Strongest message: stop short-term cuts for rich that threaten future
These are some things that DEMOCRATS running for US Congress and offices in your state are saying. For each, please indicate whether
you are much more likely, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, or no more likely to support the DEMOCRATIC candidate who says that.
STOP SHORT-TERM FOR RICH THREATENING OUR FUTURE
My state needs a plan for a better future, not more short-term political deals and short-sighted cuts to the things we need. We need
to invest in education and infrastructure, not cut them. We need to protect Social Security and Medicare, not threaten your
retirement with more tax cuts for the rich and corporations.

FED UP WITH RIGGED ECONOMY

I'm fed up. Our economy and politics are rigged against hard-working people here in my state. Corporate donors are spending
unlimited sums supporting my opponent to get their way. I will say no to big money and trickle-down economics (SPLIT: and make
sure the rich and corporations pay their fair share of taxes) so we can help people with the rising cost of health care, childcare,
housing and student debt and protect Social Security and Medicare

Much more likely to support Democrat Somewhat more likely to support Democrat
83 79
66 64 67 67 62
60 56 61 61 56
54 50 55 50

67 66
46 46 45 41 51 46 45 39
39 36 33 30 39 35

White
White
African Millennial White Unmarried Working
Hispanic Millennial Unmarried
American Women Millennial Women Class
Women
Women

RAE+ battleground web-survey. 36

Messaging produces major shifts in interest in voting in November
How interested are you in the elections in November? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no
interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested.

SHIFT IN %10 INTEREST IN ELECTION

+6 +3 +12 +8 +7 +6 +5 +8

52
46 45 47
43 43 42 44
40 39
37 36
32 32
24 25

Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask

Rising White White

African White Unmarried
American Hispanic Millennials Unmarried Working
American Millennials Women
Electorate Women Class Women

RAE+ battleground web-survey.

37
Democrats keep daunting lead on enthusiasm
How interested are you in the elections in November? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no
interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested.
And how much do the elections this November for U.S. Congress and other state and local offices matter this year? Please rate
how much they matter from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning they don't matter at all and 10 meaning they matter tremendously.

SHIFT IN %10 INTEREST IN ELECTION & ELECTION MATTERS

+6 +7 +5 +6

51 51
43 45 44 42
37 37 37 39
32 31

Interest Interest Matters Interest Interest Matters Interest Interest Matters Interest Interest Matters
initial re-ask initial re-ask initial re-ask Initial Re-ask

Rising
American Democrats Independents Republicans
Electorate

RAE+ battleground web-survey. Displaying Democrats , independents, and Republicans by RAE only.
38
Higher interest with these margins deadly for Republicans
How interested are you in the elections in November? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no
interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested.

SHIFT IN %10 INTEREST IN ELECTION &

FINAL CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT
+76 +3 +33 +12 +9 +8 +30 +6 +13 +8

85

64 62
52 50 53
43 46 40 41
45
40
44
39 36
31 32 32
24
9

Rep Dem Initial Re- Rep Dem Initial Re- Rep Dem Initial Re- Rep Dem Initial Re- Rep Dem Initial Re-
ask ask ask ask ask
White
African Unmarried
Hispanic Millennials Working
American Women
Class Women

RAE+ battleground web-survey.

39
Shift in congressional vote with Hispanics, in DCCC battleground
Thinking about the election for Congress in your district in November 2018, will you vote for -- the Democratic candidate or the Republican
candidate? How certain are you that you would vote for the (CANDIDATE) -- are you very certain, somewhat certain or not certain at all?

SHIFT IN CONGRESSIONAL VOTE MARGIN

Strong Dem Weak Dem Strong Rep Weak Rep
+22 +19 +17 +20 +25 +33

57 60 64
56 54 56

40 41 35 37 43 47

21 23 18 19 20 20

35 37 37 36 35 31

Initial Re-Ask Initial Re-Ask Initial Re-Ask

Rising American DCCC Battleground

Hispanic
Electorate Districts

RAE+ battleground web-survey. Displaying RAE only in DCCC battleground istricts.

40
Governor ballot improves with independents, key millennials
Thinking about the election for Governor in your state in November 2018, will you vote for – (Democratic candidate) or (Republican
candidate)?

SHIFT IN GOVERNOR BALLOT

Democratic Candidate for Governor Republican Candidate for Governor
+13 +12 +20 +19 +7 +13 +60 +65 +14 +8

73 77

52 52 55 55 54 52
40 41 40 44
39 35 36 36
29 28
13 12
Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask

Rising Rising Minority White

American American Independent Millennial Millennial
Electorate+ Electorate Women Men

RAE+ battleground web-survey. Independents shown among RAE only.

41
DEMOCRACY GREENBERG WOMEN’S VOICES WOMEN VOTE
CORPS RESEARCH ACTION FUND
1875 Connecticut Ave. NW 1101 15th Street NW 1707 L Street, N.W.
Floor 10 Suite 900 Suite 300
Washington, DC 20009 Washington, DC 20004 Washington, DC 20036

Phone: +1 202 499 6901 Phone: +1 202 478 8300 Phone: +1 202 659 9570

www.democracycorps.com www.greenbergresearch.com www.wvwvaf.org