Mid-Long Term Algerian Electric Load Forecasting
Using Regression Approach
Mohamed Reda Nezzar, Nadir Farah, Tarek Khadir
LabGED Laboratory
Badji Mokhtar University
Annaba,Algeria
nezzar@labged.net,farah@labged.net,khadir@labged.net
Abstract- Electrical load is a major input factor in economic
development. To support economic growth and meet
demands in the future, the load forecasting has become a very
important task for electric power stations. Therefore, several
techniques have been used to accomplish this task. In this study,
our interest is focused on the multiple regression approach,
especially, linear and exponential regression for medium-long
term load forecasting. The choice of this approach is due to the
lack of data does not allow us to use artificial intelligence
approaches such as neural networks. In addition to
regression approach, we used a system of electric load profile
that allows us to obtain the power has a smaller scale (hour, day,
week) to get the peaks. Data that has been used in this work
represent electric load consumption and were taken from the
Algerian national electricity company.
Keywords-regression approaches; medium-long term
forecasting; multiple linear regressions; multiple exponential
regressions.
I. INTRODUCTION
Economic development depends directly on the availability
of electrical power,because most of industries depend entirely
on its use. The availability of a reliable source of energy is thus
of paramount importance. Having an accurate prediction of the
electrical load is very important for several reasons, including
the economy and security. Medium and long term Forecasting
is a crucial input data for all studies of market development of
energy production and consumption. This is a step in the
planning process of works energy, which determines the
investments involved and committed to making choices often
irreversible on the number of centrals to develop or activate
and the number of turbines and other sources of electricity
production to install for satisfy national and / or regional
demand.
In fact, the national company of electricity, specializing in
the electricity production has been interested in this area and
therefore provided us the data of the electric charge of several
years (from 2000 to 2010) required to the development of a
medium - long term forecasting models.
To solve this problem, there are different methods of
prediction which they can be classified into two categories; the
first is based on the mathematical and statistical methods.
Indeed, statistical models such as linear regression and
autoregressive model has been widely used in practice for load
ISBN: 978-1-4673-5613-8©2013 IEEE
forecasting because of their simplicity. The most used in the
the literature are regression model [1] [2] [3] [4] and support
vector regression (SVR) [5] [6] [7] [8]. The second is the
artificial intelligence techniques which are increasingly used in
recent years because of their many advantages, and one of the
most widely used is artificial neural networks [9] [10] [11],
neuro-fuzzy systems [12] [13] [14] [15],etc.
The aim of this paper is to present the methods of
the
regression, in addition to the system load profile for problem
solving forecasting. The choice of these methods based on the
fact that the data we were given is not sufficient to allow us to
use other approaches such as neural networks, which are
heavily exploited. Regression analysis is one of the most
popular techniques for predictive modeling. The regression
models popularity can be attributed to the interpretation of the
model parameters and ease of use. However, the major
conceptual limitation of all regression techniques is that one
can only observe the relationship,but you can never be sure of
the causal mechanism underlying [16]. In our study, we are
interested in the multiple regression, more precisely, two
models of multiple regression, multiple linear regression and
multiple exponential regression. Multiple linear regressions are
the one of linear regression analyses that used to analyze the
relationship between single response variable (dependent
variable) with two or more controlled variables (independent
variables). Multiple exponential regressions can be used to find
an equation that best fits the relationship between groups of
random variables. It assists in drawing conclusion about a set
of data. In addition to regression approach, we used load
profile system to obtain power has a smaller scale (hour, day,
week) to get peak power to meet the needs of extreme cases by
adjusting production.
The paper is organized as follows: in the second section,we
present a non-exhaustive related work. Both methods of linear
and exponential multiple regression will be discussed in the
third section. In the fourth section, we present the load profile
that we used for the annual electrical energy. In the fifth
section, we explain some experiments and results. Finally, a
conclusion and some perspectives are discussed in the fmal
section.
II. RELATED WORK
In developing countries where energy demand increases
more dynamic, load forecasting is even more important.
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Therefore, many techniques have been applied to solve the
prediction of long-term electrical load among the most widely
used techniques; there are artificial neural networks (ANN).
Indeed, Dalvand et aI, [16] using a multilayer neural network
with back-propagation for the prediction of peak loads in Iran
based only on economic factors to determine which is the
most relevant factor. Kim et ai, [17] developed a new model
called Dynamic Bilinear Recurrent Neural Network (Dynamic
BRNN); the results show that the dynamic model is an
effective tool for load forecasting problems. Li et aI, [11]
propose a hybrid model that is based on a generalized
regression neural network, this method has been proven in
solving non-linear problems; it is also based on the fruit fly
optimization algorithm used to determine the appropriate
parameters.
There is the statistical approach of support vector
regression (SVR) that Hong [5] used in combination with the
Chaotic Practicle Swarm Optimization algorithm (CPSO) to
solve nonlinear regression and time series problems. A
prediction model based on support vector regression (SVR) in
combination with differential evolution algorithm is discussed
by Wang et ai, [18]. Hong et ai, [6] also apply the method of
support vector regression, in combination with a genetic
algorithm (GA) for predicting the cyclic electric load.
Alrashidi and EL-Naggar [19] exploit Practicle Swarm
Opitmization algorithm (PSO), which produces good
estimates,indicating that the PSO approach is very promising.
A combination model is proposed by Niu et ai, [20] for
medium to long term load forecasting, based on Least Sqaure
Support Vector Machine algorithm (LS-SVM) and Practicle
Swarm Opitmization (PSO). Kazemi et aI, [2] present a model
for predicting the energy demand in the industrial sector,
based on fuzzy linear regression approach using multi-level
socio-economic indicators. Ng et ai, [I] develop and compare
four models to predict private sector residential demand:
Linear Regression Analysis model (LRA), Genetics
Algorithms (GA), GA-LRA model, where LRA is used to
select the indicator variables; and GA-LRA model with
Adaptive Mutation Rate.
III. REGRESSION MODEL
Regression analysis is a statistical tool for the study of
relationships between variables [21]. Usually, we try to
determine the causal effect of one variable on another, the
effect of the number of customers on energy such as
electricity. To explore these questions,we need to collect data
on the underlying variables of interest and we use regression
to estimate the quantitative effect of the causal variables upon
the variable that they influence. Regression techniques have
long played a central role in the field of economic statistics
("Econometrics").
In this work, we use multiple regressions, which are a
general system that examines the relationship between a set of
independent variables to a single dependent variable. It is
among the statistical analysis used more widely. Multiple
regressions are very flexible and are suitable for the study of a
wide range of issues.
ISBN: 978-1-4673-5613-8©2013 IEEE
We are interested in only two models of multiple
regressions, multiple linear regressions and multiple
exponential regressions.
The Multiple linear regressions are a statistical regression
used to analyze the relationship between the dependent
variable with two or more controlled variables (independent
variables) [22]. We used the method of least squares for our
linear model. A multiple linear regression model with more
than one explanatory variable can be written as follows:
(1)
Where y is the output variable, Pi are regression
parameters (i = 1,2, ...p), Xi are the input variables (i =
1,2, ...p) and E is the random error term.
The Exponential Regression is important in an application;
it produces an exponential curve that best fits a set of data that
does not change linearly with time [23]. The exponential
regression model is appropriate when an individual has a
constant hazard function and is written as follows:
(2)
Where Pi are parameters for the n independent variables.
IV. LOAD PROFILE
A load profile is a matrix of 365 days x 24 hours,each cell
of the matrix is composed of a percentage. This percentage
represents the production rate of day x hour of the cell
throughout the year compared to the calculated load factor.
The load profile represents the fluctuations of the electric
power produced in the year during each hour of the day. If a
future year corresponds to a profile of a year spent, we apply
this profile to the future year. The interest profile is to
ventilate an annual value by 8760 hours (number of hours in
the year) to obtain the power of each hour. Before performing
ventilation,it is necessary to transform the energy into power.
I. There are three type of profile:
2. The daily profile,which consists of 24 hours,knowing
that there are three types of day, working day (WD),
public holiday (PH) and eve a working day (EWO).
3. The weekly profile which is composed of seven days
of the week
And the annual profile which consists of 52 weeks.
The interest of the load profile is that it allows us to move
from an annual value which is considered as short term to the
very short-term (hours,days) and also enjoy a dynamic aspect
which involves the use of different profiles for a specific
voltage.
V. EXPERIMENTATION
The experiment was conducted in the context of a national
research project in association with the Algerian national
electricity company that provided us data electricity
consumption for the year 2000 to 2010. We used these data to
predict the electrical load until the year 2050. Production of
122
Algerian electricity is divided in three voltages: (I) the low LoadLV(t) = a + [3 x Customers(t) + r x
voltage (LV), (2) the medium voltage (MV) and (3) the high Average consu(t) + 8 x ConsuLV(t - 2) + e x
voltage (HV). ConsuLV(t - 1) (4 )
A. Regression Models
Where a is a constant and [3, r, 8 and e are coefficients.
For each voltage, there are three scenarios for the
exogenous variables, low, high and medium, which give us In addition to the number of customers and the average
three predictions (low, medium and high), depending on the consumption,we used the low voltage consumption at time (t­
exogenous variable used. I) and (t-2).
We proceeded first to a prediction of the annual energy of The same procedure was performed for medium and high
these three voltages using exogenous variables in our voltage,with the difference that the medium and high voltages
prediction models. Second, to obtain the load matrices which are directly influenced by the gross domestic product (GDP),
consist of 8760 values (number of hours in the year), each which means that each voltage has its own linear and
value representing the electrical power. exponential model. Thus,we have obtained a prediction to the
year 2050.
We realized for each voltage two regression models, an
exponential model and a linear model. The first model TABLE!. COMPARAISON BETWEEN PREDICTED VALUES AND ACTUAL
concerns the medium term prediction (approximately from VALUES OF THE YEAR 20II.
20II to 2023,this may vary depending on the case study). The
second model concerns the long-term prediction (the year in Voltage Real 2011 Predicted 2011
which stop the first model until 2050).
The low voltage (LV) is a voltage reserved primarily for Low Voltage 0,98215 0,99765
housing, which means that low voltage is directly influenced Mid Voltage 0,88591 0,89658
by the number of customers and the average consumption per
customer. The number of customers and the average High Voltage 0,91952 0,92188

consumption per customer are the exogenous variables used in

the models of low voltage that we performed a prediction prior
to the year 2050. These values will be estimated by our
models to predict the consumption of low voltage.
As mentioned earlier, for each voltage, we have two
models,the exponential model of low voltage is:
LoadLV(t) = a x [3customers(t) X raverage consu (t)
O'consuLv(t-2) x econsuLV(t-l)
Where a is a constant and [3, r, 8 and e are coefficients.
And the linear model is:
The normalized results obtained for the year 2011 (Table
I) are satisfactory. They are optimist that is to say that the
values of our models are superior to the actual values; it is
preferable in the context of the efficiency production.
Models approximate well the actual values of electricity
X production. For confidentiality reasons we cannot disclose
(3) more data values sent by the national electricity company of
Algerian.

Low Voltage Prediction until 2050

1 2 0000.00 -,------

l0c000.OO 1-----------========::::;:;;;::;:;=__--
8 0000.00 +-------+--

� 60c00,OO ----------:�-r--========::::;:;;;::;:;==--
I
- L ow Sc enario

-Mid S cenario
�.oo +_-----����----------- -High Scen ario

2 0000.00 +_----:::;7"""----------------

g8g:g���;;��g�C!i����rI.����:$���
= 0 = = = = = ==== 0 = = 0 = = 0 = = 0 = = 0 = =
f".I (".I "" ["'.I r-.I "" ["'.I (".I r-..I ["'>.I C'.I r--.I ["'>.I r-.I N [">.I (".I N [">,I r-.I N [">,I {".I N [">,I r-.I

Year

Fig. I. Low voltage prediction until 2050.

ISBN: 978-1-4673-5613-8©2013 IEEE 123

 This figure illustrates the three scenarios predicting of low increase significantly. After 2023, we observe a stabilization
voltage up to 2050. It clearly shows that until 2023,the curves of the curves that does not have a strong upward trend. This is
are exponential; this is explained by the fact that the housing justified by that the housing stock from this year will meet the
stock, population and average consumption per housing will population needs as well as the average consumption stability.

Mid Voltage Prediction until 2050

180000

160000
/

140 000 /
120000
/
.... 100 000 //
S
" 80000 / // - L owScenario
60000
/.// - Mid Sce nario
40 000 /....
� ... - High Sce nario
�-----
20000

o
g � g �������g� ���� � � � ffi��3 ���
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

Year

Fig. 2. Mid voltage prediction until 2050.

The figure 2 represents the three scenarios prediction of B. Load Profile

medium voltage through to 2050. As the average is bound to
GOP, over GOP increases, over the average power
consumption is affected.
The sum of the three predictions LV, MV and HV
represents the consumption of the electric charge of all the
national territory. At this level, we can use the suitable profile
system to ventilate the values of LV, MV and / or HV or the
global consumption (i.e.,the sum of the three voltages).
We take the evolution of powers per hour of a year spent
in dividing it in the four seasons, thereafter; we calculate the
daily profile of the three types of day: working day (WO),
public holiday (PH) and eve a working day (EWD) of each
season.

% Week pro file Weektype A % Day profile Daytype 1 %

--
1 Weektype A 1 Daytype 1 � 1
2 Weektype B , 2 ...
3 Weektype C 3 ...
"

\
... 4 ...
... 5 Daytype 2 � 24
�6
�7 DaytypeN Daytype 2 %
...
1

\
...
... (all other weeks type)
. ..
. ..
... 24

...
... I'IDaytypeN %
WeektypeZ % Day profile

�
1 1
...
...
2 Daytype K

... / 3 Daytype L
4
52 WeektypeZ 24
5 DaytypeN

Fig. 3. Load profile Diagram.

ISBN: 978-1-4673-5613-8©2013 IEEE 124

 As a result we get 12 daily profiles. Afterwards, we
calculate the weekly profile of each season, which will result
in four profiles weekly. Finally, we calculate the annual
profile by decomposing the powers evolution matrix in weeks
and we will make the profile of every week which will give us
a single annual profile. To obtain the global load matrix, we
will link together the obtained three profiles, which means
every week of annual profile is associated with weekly profile
and every day of weekly profile is associated with a daily
profile.
For example: taking on 15t January 2012 at 00:00 pm
This first week of the year is a Sunday and midnight is the
first hour.
To obtain the profile of 15t January 2012, we take the
percentage of the first week of the annual profile and also the
percentage of the Sunday of the first season of the weekly
profile and finally, we take the hour 00:00 percentage of the
daily profile of the public holiday type because January I,
2012 is a public holiday in the first week of the first season.
By multiplying the three percentages, we get the value of
the Day: January 1,2012 0:00 h. We will start this process for
every hour of the day. As a final result, we have a matrix
containing all these values, which we will call profile matrix
that will be used to ventilate a future annual value.
VI. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORKS
In this paper, we conducted two parts, one for the annual
electric energy forecasting to the national grid Algerian using
regression models. In the second part, we present the electric
load profile system that will get annual electric power using
the load factor deduced by the matrix of powers of each hour
of the day. After that, we ventilate the power in 8760 values
(number of hours in the year). Load profiles are editable and
we can choose different profiles for different voltages, which
makes our prediction at short-term (hour,day,week) dynamic.
In the future, we plan to predict the seasonality of a year in
order to apply the annual fluctuations of the load to the load
profile to obtain the most realistic prediction. The results are
satisfactory and have been approved by the Algerian national
electricity company within a national research project.
We chose the regression model due to lack of data.
However, there are other methods that can be applied in this
particular case, it is the Grey theory, it is suitable for load
forecasting [24] [25], because its principle is simple and the
calculation is convenient in small sample. Our future research
concerning the application of this theory to our dataset to
predict the Algerian electricity coming years and able to
compare with we have achieved.
As another research perspective, we will use artificial
neural networks (ANN) on a different data set that we will
soon be provided and will be large enough to allow us to
evaluate the performance of networks for long-term forecast
of the Algerian electric load.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
ISBN: 978-1-4673-5613-8©2013 IEEE
The authors would like to express their sincere gratitude to
Algerian national electricity company for provided data and its
employees for their reliability,confidence and cooperation.
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