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S P E C I A L R E P O R T S
A SHORT
HISTORY OF
MODERN
RUSSIA
A SHORT HISTORY OF MODERN RUSSIA
A Short History of
Modern Russia
R
ussian President Vladimir Putin described the Sovi-
et Union’s collapse in 1991 as “the greatest political
catastrophe” of the 20th century. To those outside
of Russia it may sound like hyperbole, but to those who lived
there it’s a different story. In short order, they witnessed their
government in Moscow, a power on par with the United States
for nearly five decades, lose its footing and never fully recover.
Russia became destitute, even aimless.
Geography, or the
Dangers of the West
Indeed, Russia’s most fundamental and strategic challenge
– which has both international and domestic dimensions –
stems from the country’s geography. The vast majority of Rus-
sian territory sits between 50 degrees and 70 degrees latitude.
For perspective, London’s latitude is about 51 degrees, Berlin’s
is 52 and Ottawa’s is 45. Russia’s climate is generally cool, and
vegetation and human life tend to inhabit areas that are below
A Concentration of Wealth
Russian geography presents an obvious challenge: Whoever
governs the country must manage the largest country in the
world, comprising vastly different peoples, climates, natural re-
sources and infrastructure networks. The Russian Federation
consists of 85 federal subjects that range in structure from
autonomous regions and republics to individual cities. As a re-
sult, Russia is home to highly regionalized economies in which
wealth and prosperity are unevenly distributed.
120 120
Oil price
per barrel
90 90
60 60
Russia's
Reserve Fund
30 30
0 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation; Energy Information Administration; Reuters © 2016 Geopolitical Futures
This worked well enough when energy prices were high. But when
they fall, so too do Russian revenues. This inevitably leads to peri-
odic economic downturns. From 2015 to 2017, for example, citi-
zens protested unemployment, wage arrears, cuts in government
programs, lower real wages, bankruptcy and general frustration
with reduced standards of living. The protests were small, but they
could threaten Putin in the long term. So Putin must not only main-
tain control but also show the people that he is responding to their
needs.
4
400
100
2
300
0
-2
200
-4
10
-6
-8 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SIGNSSigns of Instability
OF INSTABILITY in Russia
IN RUSSIA
WAGE ARREARS
GOVERNORS WHO HAVE LOST OR ARE AT RISK OF LOSING THEIR POSTS AREAS OF PROTEST (Jan. 1, 2017)
(Reported Dec. 12, 2016 and Feb. 5, 2017) (October 2016-February 2017) Percent of total wage arrears in Russia
21.2 Primorsky region (#79)
No data reported
WAGE ARREARS
(Jan. 1, 2017) 4.5 %
4.0
Percent of total wage arrears in Russia
21.2 Primorsky region (#79) 3.5
No data reported
4.5 %
3.0
4.0 2.5
3.5 2.0
3.0 1.5
2.5
1.0
2.0
41 0.5
1.5
1.0 0.0
41 0.5
SIGNS OF INSTABILITY IN
42
RUSSIA
43
42
65
0.0
85
43 65 82
64 85
44 Ural 64
82
Northwestern Siberia Far Eastern
40 44 83
NS OF INSTABILITY IN RUSSIA
Ural Far Eastern
40 Northwestern 63 Siberia 83
63
39 38 37 39 38 3758
66
GOVERNORS WHO HAVE LOST OR ARE AT RISK OF LOSING THEIR POSTS 35
36
33
AREAS OF PROTEST
32 31 3645 32 31 6245 61 62 61
30 35 52 3357 30 52 57
58 66
74 74 81 81
(Reported Dec. 12, 2016 and Feb. 5, 2017) 34 27 34 29 27
24(October 2016-February 2017)
46 51 53 29 46 59 51 53 67
60 56 59 60 68
67
7068 70
84 84
28 26 24 23 22Central
22 47
2847 26
50 541923205621 48 50 54 55 71
69
71 7575 76
77
77
Central 19 20 21 48 25 49 69 73 76
25 18 16 49 18 5516 15 7273 80
80
Volga 72
THEIR POSTS AREAS OF PROTEST 17 15
17
Volga
12 14
78
141 11 13 Southern
(October 2016-February 2017) 1 11 12Crimea*
13 2 Southern
10
9
8
78 79
Crimea* 9 79
2 10 8 3 4 5 6 7 North
Caucasian
3 4 5 6 7 North
GENERALS REMOVED FROM EMERCOM BANKS WITH LICENSES REVOKED
Caucasian
(As of Feb. 2, 2017) (Aug. 18, 2014-Jan. 23, 2017)
GOVERNORS WHO HAVE LOST OR ARE AT RISK OF LOSING THEIR POSTS
AREAS OF PROTEST
GOVERNORS WHOREMOVED
GENERALS HAVE LOST
FROMOR ARE AT RISK OF LOSING THEIR POSTS
EMERCOM
AREAS OFBANKS WITH LICENSES REVOKED
PROTEST
GENERALS REMOVED
Crimea*: 3.2% FROM EMERCOM Volga: 12.3%
BANKS WITH of
1 Republic LICENSES
Crimea REVOKED 45 Kirov region
2 City of Sevastopol 46 Nizhny Novgorod region
Crimea*: 3.2% Volga: of
47 Republic 12.3%
Mordovia
NS OF INSTABILITY IN RUSSIA 1 Republic North
of Crimea
Caucasus: 2.3% 45 Kirovregion
48 Penza region
2 City of Sevastopol
3 Karachay-Cherkess Republic 46 Nizhnyregion
49 Saratov Novgorod region
4 Kabardino-Balkar Republic 50 Ulyanovsk region
47 Republic of Mordovia
5 Republic of North Ossetia-Alania 51 Chuvash Republic
North Caucasus:
6 Republic of2.3% Ingushetia 48 Penza
52 Mari region
El Republic
THEIR POSTS AREAS OF PROTEST 3 Karachay-Cherkess
7 Chechen Republic Republic 49 Saratovofregion
53 Republic Tatarstan
(October 2016-February 2017)
4 Kabardino-Balkar
8 Republic ofRepublic
Dagestan 50 Ulyanovsk
54 Samara regionregion
5 Republic9 Stavropol
of Northregion
Ossetia-Alania 55 Orenburg
51 ChuvashregionRepublic
GENERALS REMOVED FROM EMERCOM BANKS WITH LICENSES REVOKED 56 Republic of Bashkortostan
(As of Feb. 2, 2017) 6 Republic
(Aug. of18,
Ingushetia
Southern:2014-Jan.
2.5% 23, 2017) 52 Mari El Republic
57 Udmurt Republic
7 Chechen Republic
10 Republic of Adygea 53 Republic
58 Perm regionof Tatarstan
BANKS WITH LICENSES REVOKED 8 Republic of Dagestan
11 Krasnodar region
WAGE ARREARS
54 Samara region
(Aug. 18, 2014-Jan. 23, 2017) 9 Stavropol12 Rostov
regionregion (Jan. 1, 2017)55 Ural: 2.0% region
Orenburg
13 Republic of Kalmykia 59 Chelyabinsk region
56
Percent of total wage arrears Republic of Bashkortostan
14 Astrakhan region 60in Kurgan
Russia
region
Southern: 2.5% region
15 Volgograd 21.2 Primorsky region 57 Udmurt
(#79) region
61 Tyumen Republic
10 Republic of Adygea No data reported 58 Perm region
62 Sverdlovsk region
11 Krasnodar region11.9%
Central: 4.5 % 63 Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Region
16
12 Rostov regionVoronezh region 4.0 64 Yamalo-Nenets
Ural: 2.0% Autonomous Region
17 Belgorod region
13 Republic of Kalmykia
18 Kursk region
Chelyabinsk
3.5 59 Siberia: 21.6% region
14 Astrakhan19 Oryolregion
region 3.0 60 Kurgan region
65 Krasnoyarsk region
15 Volgograd region
20 Lipetsk region 2.5 61 66 Tomsk
Tyumen region
region
21 Tambov region 67 Omsk region
2.0 62 Sverdlovsk region
22 Ryazan region 1.5 63 68 Novosibirsk region
Central: 11.9% Khanty-Mansi
69 Altai region Autonomous Region
23 Tula region 1.0 64 Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Region
16 Voronezh region
24 Kaluga region 70 Kemerovo region
41 0.5 71 Republic of Khakassia
17 Belgorod region region
25 Bryansk
0.0 72 Altai Siberia:
Republic 21.6%
18 Kursk region
26 Smolensk region
BANKS WITH LICENSES REVOKED 19 Oryol 27 Moscow region
region WAGE ARREARS 73 Tuva
65 Republic region
Krasnoyarsk
42 (Aug. 18, 2014-Jan.
43 23, 2017) 65 28 City of Moscow** (Jan. 1, 2017)66 74 Irkutsk region
Tomsk region
20 Lipetsk29region
Vladimir region 85 arrears75in Russia
Percent of total wage Republic of Buryatia
21 Tambov
82 region
30 Ivanovo region 67 Omsk region
76 Transbaikal region
WAGE
64 ARREARS 21.2 Primorsky region (#79)
44 Ural (Jan. 1, 2017) 22 Ryazan31region
Kostroma region 68 Novosibirsk region
Far Eastern No data reported
Northwestern Siberia 32 Yaroslavl region 83 69 Far Eastern:
Altai region26.6%
40 Percent of total wage arrears in Russia 23 Tula region 4.5 %
63 77 Amur region
39 21.2 Primorsky region (#79)
Tver region
24 Kaluga33region 70 Kemerovo region
4.0 78 Jewish Autonomous Region
38 37 71 Republicregion of Khakassia
58 62 No data reported
66
25 Bryansk region
Northwestern: 17.5% 3.5 79 Primorsky
36 31 45
35 33
32
30 52 57 61 4.5 %
74
26 Smolensk region region
34 Kaliningrad 3.0 72 Altai Republic
80 Sakhalin Republic (Yakutia)
67 81 84
2.5 73 Tuva Republic
29 46 51 53 27 Moscow regionregion
35 Pskov 81 Khabarovsk region
34 27 59 60 68 4.0 70
28 26 24 23 22 47 50 54 56 3.5 71 75 28 77 of36
City Novgorod region
Moscow** 2.0
82 Sakha
74 Irkutsk region
region
Central 19 20 21 48 55 69 76 37 Vologda region 83 Magadan region
25 18 16 49 3.0 73 29 Vladimir region 1.5 75 Republic
84 Kamchatka region
of Buryatia
72 38 Leningrad80 region
17 15 Volga 2.5 30 Ivanovo 39region
City of St. Petersburg 1.0 76 Transbaikal
85 Chukotka region Region
Autonomous
14
1 11 1241 13 Southern 2.0 31 Kostroma regionof Karelia
78 40 Republic 0.5
Crimea* 9 1.5 32 Yaroslavl4179Arkhangelsk
region region 0.0 Far Eastern: 26.6%
2 10 8 1.0 42 Murmansk region
33 Tver region 77 Amur region
42 3 4 5 6 7 North 43 0.5 43 Nenets Autonomous Region
65 78 Jewish Autonomous Region
Caucasian 44 Komi Republic
0.0 85 79 Primorsky region
Northwestern:
82 17.5%
64
WAGE ARREARS 80 Sakhalin Republic (Yakutia)
44 Ural (Jan. 1, 2017)
34 Kaliningrad region
65 Northwestern Siberia 35 Pskov region Far Eastern 81 Khabarovsk region
40 85 83
82 GOVERNORS WHO
63Percent of totalHAVE LOST
wage arrears in RussiaOR ARE AT RISK OF LOSING THEIR POSTS
36 Novgorod region 82 Sakha region
39 83 Magadan region
Siberia
38 37
Far AREAS
Eastern
58 OF PROTEST
21.2 Primorsky region (#79)
No data reported
37 Vologda region
66
35
36
33
32 31
www.geopoliticalfutures.com
30 52 57
45
GENERALS
62 83
61 REMOVED
67
FROM
4.5 % EMERCOM74 9
38 Leningrad region
39 City of 81 Petersburg
St. 84
© 2018
84 Kamchatka region
Geopolitical Futures
85 Chukotka Autonomous Region
29 46 53 BANKS 59 WITH LICENSES
34 27
24
51 60 68 4.0 70 REVOKED
6 28 26 23 22 47 50 54 56 71 75 40 Republic
77 of Karelia
19 48 3.5
A SHORT HISTORY OF MODERN RUSSIA
Approval Ratings
APPROVAL RATINGSof
OF Putin and
PUTIN AND Governors
GOVERNORS
PERCENT CHANGE IN GDP VS. PREVIOUS QUARTER PERCENT WHO APPROVE OF...
8 100 120
...Putin’s activities
6 90
4 80
100
2 70
0 60
-2 50
...governors’ activities
-4 40
-6 30
-8 20
-10 10
-12 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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