Nova Scotia

Voter Intention Numbers

7th May 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results
of three surveys. The survey was conducted
between April 16th to April 18th, 2018 among
a sample of 680 adults, 18 years of age or
older, living in Nova Scotia. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular
phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources
and random digit dialing. The part of the
survey that dialed from the directory was
conducted as a stratified dial of the following
regions; Halifax, Cape Breton, and the rest
of Nova Scotia. In the case of random digit
dials, respondents were asked the additional
question of what region of the province they
resided in.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/-
3.85% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
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Our latest UltraPoll release turns its focus to Nova Scotia, where the governing
Liberals led by Stephen McNeil enjoy a five-and-a-half point lead over the PCs.

The poll surveyed 680 Nova Scotians between April 16th and 18th and has a
margin of error of +/- 3.85% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals lead with 40.2% (-0.4%
since January), while the Progressive Conservatives led by new leader Karla
MacFarlane have 34.7% support (-3.8%). The NDP led by Gary Burrill are at
17.3% (+1.6%), while the Greens under the helm of Thomas Trappenburg are at
5.6%.

This is the first polling released since MacFarlane has become leader of the
Nova Scotia PCs.

The Liberals enjoy a much larger lead among men compared to women. While
the Liberals lead by 9.6% over the Conservatives among men, they are in a
virtual tie among women. The Liberals have a substantial lead over the PCs
among the 18-34s, while the PCs have four point lead among respondents aged
35 to 49. Both parties are tied among the 50-64 cohort with 40.4%, while the
Liberals lead by more than nine points among Nova Scotians aged 65 or over.

When looking at geographic divisions, the Liberals lead in Halifax while the PCs
lead in Cape Breton, with the Liberals leading in the rest of the province.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
 All Voters
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?

Undecided 11.5%

Another Party 2%

Greens 5%
Liberals 35.7%

NDP 15.4% All Voters

Decided and Leaning

Progressive Conservatives 30.5

Another Party 2.3%

Greens 5.6%
Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Greens

Another Party Undecided

NDP 17.3%
Liberals 40.2%

Decided and Leaning

Progressive Conservatives 34.7%

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Rest
18- 35- 50- Cape
All Male Female 65+ Halifax of
34 49 64 Breton
NS
Liberals led by Stephen McNeil 35.7% 38.7% 32.8% 36.4% 29.9% 36.2% 40.1% 36% 34.2% 35.8%
Progressive Conservatives led by
30.5% 30.5% 30.4% 23.7% 33.3% 34.1% 30.1% 25.9% 42.2% 31.1%
Karla MacFarlane
NDP led by Gary Burrill 15.4% 14.1% 16.5% 17.2% 20.4% 11.7% 12.9% 19.7% 9.2% 13%
Greens led by Thomas Trappenberg 5% 5.3% 4.8% 7.4% 6.4% 3.6% 2.8% 6.5% 3.3% 4.1%
Another Party 2% 2.6% 1.4% 2.4% 4.9% 0.5% 0.6% 1.5% 1.6% 2.6%
Undecided 11.5% 8.9% 14.1% 12.9% 5.1% 13.9% 13.5% 10.4% 9.5% 13.4%
Unweighted Frequency 680 307 373 83 80 196 321 243 110 327
Weighted Frequency 680 332 348 167 157 204 153 296 97 287

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

Rest
18- 35- 50- Cape
All Male Female 65+ Halifax of
34 49 64 Breton
NS
Liberals led by Stephen McNeil 36.8% 40.3% 33.5% 38.7% 29.9% 36.8% 41.9% 37.1% 34.7% 37.2%
Progressive Conservatives led by
31.8% 31.1% 32.3% 24.9% 33.3% 36.5% 31.3% 27.2% 42.2% 32.9%
Karla MacFarlane
NDP led by Gary Burrill 15.9% 14.6% 17.1% 17.2% 20.4% 12.8% 13.8% 20.3% 9.7% 13.4%
Greens led by Thomas Trappenberg 5.1% 5.4% 4.9% 7.4% 6.4% 3.6% 3.5% 6.7% 3.8% 4.1%
Another Party 2.1% 2.6% 1.7% 2.4% 4.9% 1% 0.6% 1.5% 1.6% 3%
Undecided 8.3% 6% 10.5% 9.3% 5.1% 9.4% 8.9% 7.2% 8% 9.5%
Unweighted Frequency 680 307 373 83 80 196 321 243 110 327
Weighted Frequency 680 332 348 167 157 204 153 296 97 287

(decided and leaning voters)

Rest
18- 35- 50- Cape
All Male Female 65+ Halifax of
34 49 64 Breton
NS
Liberals led by Stephen McNeil 40.2% 42.9% 37.6% 42.9% 31.4% 40.4% 45.9% 40% 38% 41.1%
Progressive Conservatives led by
34.7% 33.3% 36% 27.3% 35.4% 40.4% 34.3% 29.4% 45.8% 36.3%
Karla MacFarlane
NDP led by Gary Burrill 17.3% 15.4% 19% 19.1% 21.4% 14.1% 15.3% 21.9% 10.4% 14.9%
Greens led by Thomas Trappenberg 5.6% 5.7% 5.4% 8.1% 6.8% 3.9% 3.8% 7.1% 4.1% 4.5%
Another Party 2.3% 2.7% 1.9% 2.6% 5.1% 1.1% 0.7% 1.6% 1.8% 3.2%
Unweighted Frequency 680 287 333 75 76 177 292 224 102 294
Weighted Frequency 680 303 317 152 143 186 139 269 89 262
 QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held What is your gender?
today, which party would you vote Male
for? Female
Nova Scotia Liberal Party led by
Stephen McNeil What is your age group?
Progressive Conservative Party of 18 to 34 years of age
Nova Scotia led by Karla MacFarlane 35 to 49 years of age
Nova Scotia New Democratic Party 50 to 64 years of age
led by Gary Burrill 65 years of age or older
Green Party of Nova Scotia led by
Thomas Trappenberg
Another Party
Undecided

And which party are you leaning

towards? (only asked of respondents
who were undecided in previous
question)
Nova Scotia Liberal Party led by
Stephen McNeil
Progressive Conservative Party of
Nova Scotia led by Karla MacFarlane
Nova Scotia New Democratic Party
led by Gary Burrill
Green Party of Nova Scotia led by
Thomas Trappenberg
Another Party
Undecided
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between April 16th 2018
and April 18th, 2018, among a sample of 680 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Nova
Scotia. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Nova Scotia.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of three regions in Nova Scotia: Halifax,
Cape Breton, and the rest of Nova Scotia. In the case of random digit dials, respondents
were asked the additional question of what region of the province they resided in. In both
cases, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.85% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 5.47%, Females: +/- 5.41%,
18-34 age group: +/- 14.61%, 35-49 age group: +/- 10.11%, 50-64 age group: +/- 7.14%, 65+ age
group: +/- 5.46%, Halifax: +/- 6.05%, Cape Breton: +/- 7.38%, Rest of Nova Scotia: +/- 6.74%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.