4th Pipeline Technology Conference 2009

The standard DIN EN ISO 16708 in Germany: Is the probabilistic

approach mandatory for high-pressure pipelines?
Dipl.-Ing. Christian Veenker
Dr.-Ing. Veenker Ingenieurgesellschaft mbH
Hannover, Germany
www.veenkergmbh.de

1 Deterministic Approach vs. Probabilistic Approach

Standards related to the design of structures generally follow the deterministic
approach. This approach applies predefined and earlier-calibrated safety factors that
are taken from the applicable technical standards and regulations. The advantage of
this approach is that with a limited set of formula to be applied quickly, it allows for a
sufficiently secure design with regard to regular loads acting on a structure over its
regular useful life.
The loads acting on a pipeline as well as the boundary conditions often change over
the several decades of the useful life of a pipeline. Reasons are for example ageing
material, significant corrosion, and additional loads not accounted for in the initial
design (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Additional Loads

Additional Loads Acting on High- Pressure Pipelines

22-23 April 2009 - PTC 2009 DIN EN ISO 16708

5
4th Pipeline Technology Conference 2009

The deterministic approach can only be applied to satisfy the safety and quality
requirements at the time of construction as the reserve in load bearing capacity
included in the safety factors of the deterministic approach is not quantified within this
approach. Therefore the probabilistic approach has to be applied to determine
whether a structure subjected to additional loads and quality loss is still sufficiently
safe at any given point in time within its useful life (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Safety and Quality of a Pipeline vs. Time

Safety and Quality of a Pipeline vs. Time

Deterministic

Quality Q

Quality loss if maintained according to regulations

Standard on completion
max Q
Reserve in bearing capacity
Actual standard of a well-maintained pipeline

min Q1
Probabilistic
min Q2
Minimum standard

Lack of quality on completion or maintenance

0 t [yrs.]

22-23 April 2009 - PTC 2009 DIN EN ISO 16708

6

Within the probabilistic approach the failure frequency is determined for each single
point of a pipeline and accounting separately for all actual loads and boundary
conditions (Figure 3). It has been introduced some 20 years ago into the design and
assessment of structures. Compared to the deterministic approach, the calculation of
the failure frequency is a complex process that, however, can be carried out safely. A
problem has long been the setting of widely accepted limits for the failure frequency.
4th Pipeline Technology Conference 2009

Figure 3: Failure Frequency

Failure Frequency for Design Pressure

1,00E-02
1,00E-03
1,00E-04
2
1,00E-05 1
Limit
1,00E-06
3
1,00E-07
1,00E-08
Failure probability

1,00E-09
1,00E-10
1,00E-11
1,00E-12
1,00E-13
1,00E-14
1,00E-15
1,00E-16
1,00E-17
1,00E-18
1,00E-19
1,00E-20
55000 55500 56000 56500 57000 57500 58000 58500 59000 59500 60000

Pipe metres

22-23 April 2009 - PTC 2009 DIN EN ISO 16708

12

2 DIN EN ISO 16708

The ISO has worked on the probabilistic approach for many years and the standard
ISO 16708: „Petroleum and natural gas industries – Pipeline transportation systems
– Reliability based limit state methods“ was modified frequently in its draft status over
a long period of time. In 2006 it has been adopted as DIN EN ISO 16708 as a
national standard in Germany.
The scope of DIN EN ISO 16708 allows for the deterministic and the probabilistic
approach to be applied in parallel as they both satisfy the safety requirements.
DIN EN ISO 16708 not only gives recommendations and specifies the framework and
principles for the application of the probabilistic approach. It also gives specific
values for the target safety levels (failure frequency) to be used.
DIN EN ISO 16708 is applicable to a wide range of fluids from non-flammable to toxic
fluids. It can be applied to rigid metallic pipelines onshore and offshore. The
determination of the applicable target safety level accounts not only for the type of
fluid but also for the location category, i.e. the failure consequences.

3 Conclusion
The normative definition of the probabilistic approach along with applicable limits for
the failure frequency is highly welcome and the standard DIN EN ISO 16708 has a
high level of acceptance among authorities, experts and specialist engineers.
4th Pipeline Technology Conference 2009

However, even after the introduction of DIN EN ISO 16708 in Germany the
probabilistic approach is not mandatory as DIN EN ISO 16708 explicitly allows for the
deterministic approach and the probabilistic approach to be used in parallel.
In everyday engineering, the deterministic approach is still widely used in the design
and construction of structures to allow for a safe and simple process and for legal
certainty whereas the probabilistic approach is applied for complex issues regarding
additional loads, quality loss or economical analyses.
The probabilistic approach should be regarded as a chance rather than an obligation
as it allows proving the safety of a high-pressure pipeline even if the deterministic
approach can no longer be applied.