Recent Changes and Trends GM Climate PDF

Recent changes and trends in
Greater Manchester’s climate
Gina Cavan
2010
EcoCities is a joint initiative between the School of Environment and
Development, at The University of Manchester, and the commercial
property company Bruntwood. The project looks at the impacts of climate
change and at how we can adapt our cities and urban areas to the
challenges and potential opportunities that a changing climate presents.
© University of Manchester. 2010.
School of Environment and Development
University of Manchester
Oxford Road
Manchester
M13 9PL
This report should be referenced as:
Cavan, G. (2010). Recent changes and trends in Greater Manchester’s

climate. EcoCities project, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Please note that EcoCities working papers have not been subject to a full
external peer review. The author(s) are solely responsible for the accuracy
of the work reported in this paper and the conclusions that are drawn.
2
Contents
1 Introduction 7
1.1 The Met Office 1 km gridded data 9
2 Summary of long-term averages, changes and trends 11
2.1 Mean temperature 15
2.2 Daily maximum temperature 17
2.3 Daily minimum temperature 21
2.4 Heating degree days 25
2.5 Cooling degree days 26
2.6 Days of air frost 27
2.7 Total precipitation 28
2.8 Days of heavy rain 33
2.9 Wind speed 34
3 Conclusion 37
4 References 39
3
List of Figures
Figure 1. Annual average daily mean temperature (°C) for 1961–1990,

1971–2000 and change between 1961–1990 and 1971–2000 16
Figure 2. Annual average daily mean temperature for Greater Manchester,

1914–2006 16
Figure 3. Annual average daily maximum temperature (°C) for 1961–

1990, 1971–2000 and change between 1961–1990 and 1971–2000 17
Figure 4. Average daily maximum temperature (°C) for spring for 1961–
1990, 1971–2000, and change between 1961–1990 and 1971–2000 18
Figure 5. Average daily maximum temperature (°C) for summer for 1961–
Figure 6. Average daily maximum temperature (°C) for autumn for 1961–
Figure 7. Average daily maximum temperature (°C) for winter for 1961–
Figure 8. Average daily maximum temperature (°C) for July for 1961–
Figure 9. Daily maximum temperature in summer for Greater Manchester,

1914–2006 20
Figure 10. Annual average daily minimum temperature (°C) for 1961–
Figure 11. Average daily minimum temperature (°C) for spring for 1961–
Figure 12. Average daily minimum temperature (°C) for summer for 1961–
Figure 13. Average daily minimum temperature (°C) for autumn for 1961–
Figure 14. Average daily minimum temperature (°C) for winter for 1961–
Figure 15. Average daily minimum temperature (°C) for January for 1961–
Figure 16. Average daily minimum temperature (°C) for July for 1961–
4
Figure 17. Annual average heating degree days (HDD) for 1961–1990,
1971–2000, and percentage change between 1961–1990 and 1971–2000
25
Figure 18. Annual average cooling degree days (CDD) for 1961–1990,
1971–2000, and change between 1961–1990 and 1971–2000 26
Figure 19. Annual average days of air frost for 1961–1990, 1971–2000,
and change between 1961–1990 and 1971–2000 27
Figure 20. Annual average total precipitation amount (mm) for 1961–
1990, 1971–2000, and percentage change between 1961–90 and 1971–00
28
Figure 21. Average total precipitation amount (mm) for spring for 1961–
29
Figure 22. Average total precipitation amount (mm) for summer for 1961–
29
Figure 23. Average total precipitation amount (mm) for autumn for 1961–
30
Figure 24. Average total precipitation amount (mm) for winter for 1961–
30
Figure 25. Average total precipitation amount (mm) for January for 1961–
31
Figure 26. Average total precipitation amount (mm) for July for 1961–
31
Figure 27. Total summer precipitation (mm) for Greater Manchester,

1914–2006 32
Figure 28. Total winter precipitation (mm) for Greater Manchester, 1914–
2006 32
Figure 29. Average annual days of heavy rain (≥ 10mm) for 1961–1990,
33
5
Figure 30. Annual average 10m mean wind speed (knots) for 1961–1990,
34
Figure 31. Average 10m mean wind speed (knots) for spring for 1961–
1990, 1971–2000, and percentage change between 1961–1990 and 1971–
2000 35
Figure 32. Average 10m mean wind speed (knots) for summer for 1961–
2000 35
Figure 33. Average 10m mean wind speed (knots) for autumn for 1961–
2000 36
Figure 34. Average 10m mean wind speed (knots) for autumn for 1961–
2000 36
List of Tables
Table 1. Description of the climate variables 8
Table 2. Summary of information included in this report 8
Table 3. Averages and changes in mean temperature 15
Table 4. Summary statistics of averages and change in maximum

temperature 17
Table 5. Summary statistics of averages and change in daily minimum

temperature 21
Table 6. Summary statistics of averages and change in heating degree

days 25
Table 7. Summary statistics of averages and change in cooling degree

days 26
Table 8. Summary statistics of averages and change in days of air frost 27
Table 9. Summary statistics of averages and change in precipitation 28
Table 10. Summary statistics of averages and change in heavy rain days33
Table 11. Summary statistics of averages and change in wind speed 34
Table 12. Overview of the trends observed in the nine climate variables 38
6
1 Introduction
Significant changes in climate have been seen over the last 100 years,
partly due to anthropogenic or human-induced changes at local, national
and global levels, including changes in social, economic, industrial and
land use developments. These changes have already impacted on many
areas of society, including human health, agriculture, water and energy
demand (Perry 2006). It is important to study these observed changes
and trends in climate both to help understand their impacts and to
validate and contextualise future climate projections in Greater
Manchester. In addition, understanding recent changes in climate is
important to be able to show the long-term changes in climate that have
already occurred. Preparing for elevated changes in the future will enable
us to cope with the current climate and climate variability, including
climatic extremes.
This report provides an overview of historical climate records and recent

trends in the climate of Greater Manchester. It uses gridded climate data
from the UK Met Office. This report presents maps showing the spatial
distribution of nine climatic variables across Greater Manchester over the
two thirty year periods (1961–1990 and 1971–2000), by season and
annually. In addition, it includes maps showing the differences (or
percentage changes) between these two long-term average periods (i.e.
1971–2000 minus 1961–1990). Additional maps have been produced for
some key climatic variables for the months of January and July, as more
change has often been experienced in these months than is evident from
the average trends over the respective seasons. Table 1 provides a brief
explanation of the nine climate variables. Table 2 provides a summary of
the information from each of the variables that are included in this report,
presented in maps and tables.
The report is organised by variable, for example, long-term averages in

each variable for both climatic periods (1961–1990 and 1971–2000) and
the differences or change between them are presented in a single figure,
thus enabling visual comparisons to be made easily. Summary tables are
provided for each variable to outline the average changes across Greater
Manchester for each time period analysed.
7
Table 1. Description of the climate variables
Climate variable Description Units

Mean temperature Average of the mean daily maximum and °C
mean daily minimum temperatures
Maximum Average of the daily highest air temperatures °C
temperature
Minimum Average of the daily lowest air temperatures °C
temperature
Heating degree Σ (15.5 – daily mean temperature) whenever Degree day
days mean temperature < 15.5°C index
Cooling degree Σ (daily mean temperature - 22) whenever Degree day
days mean temperature > 22°C index
Count of days when the air minimum Count
Days of frost
temperature is below 0°C
Total precipitation Total precipitation amount (mm) mm
Count of days with rain ≥ 10 mm mm
Days of heavy rain
precipitation
Hourly mean wind speed at a height of 10 m knots
Wind speed at 10m
above ground level averaged over the month
Table 2. Summary of information included in this report
1961- 1971- Differences Season / time period

Variable 90 LTA 00 LTA between
Ann Spr Sum Aut Win Jan July
map map LTA maps
Mean
    T T T T T T
temperature
Daily maximum
         
temperature
Daily minimum
         
temperature
Heating degree
   
days*
Cooling degree
   
days*
Days of frost    
Total
         
precipitation
Days of heavy
    T T T T T T
rain
Wind speed at
       
10m
* Annual dataset - not possible to analyse seasons or months individually.
T
Presented in table format only for GM averages
8
1.1 The Met Office 1 km gridded data
The information presented in this report is created from the UK Met Office
1 x 1 km gridded datasets. These gridded datasets are constructed by
interpolating data from the UK Met Office observational records from a
network of meteorological stations across the UK (Perry and Hollis 2005b).
The gridded datasets enable analysis of changes in spatial patterns over
time and trends in climate.
There are many advantages of using gridded data rather than point
station data. These include (Met Office 2012):
• Regional values can be produced for any area (e.g. county, river
catchment) with greater accuracy and consistency;
• They enable creation of contoured or colour-shaded maps, such as
maps of 30-year averages;
• They can be combined with other spatial data to analyse the
interaction between climate and other parameters;
• There is less reliance on the weather station network, which is
irregularly spaced and changes with time;
• It provides reliable climate estimates for points some distance from
weather stations e.g. in upland areas;
• It provides a consistent series of climate data, enabling
comparisons to be made in time and space; and,
• It provides a complete series of climate data with no missing values
(this can be a particular problem with station data).
However, it should also be noted that the gridded data does have some
limitations, including that the accuracy of the gridded data is dependent
on the particular climate variable and the concentration of meteorological
stations in a particular area. For example, around 4,400 stations were
used to construct the precipitation gridded datasets, compared to 550 for
air temperature, and 440 for degree days (Jenkins et al 2007). Fewer
stations are generally found in upland locations. Thus, localised effects of
climate may not be incorporated and appropriate care must be taken not
to over-interpret the fine resolution data (Jenkins et al 2007).
The 30-year period 1961–1990 is the international standard reference

period for climate averages, as designated by the World Meteorological
Organisation. This period also represents a baseline for placing recent
9
climate change into context. Averages for the period 1971–2000 are
produced to compare to the baseline period and to analyse the changes
from this period. Although there is a significant overlap of 20 years
between these time periods, there is still some change evident, as
outlined in the next section.
10
2 Summary of long-term averages, changes and
trends
Analysis of the averages, recent changes and trends in Greater

Manchester’s climate show that there are some small but significant
changes evident within the time frame of 1961–2000. Sections 2.1 to 2.9
present the information for the nine climate variables in a series of figures
and tables.
The figures showing spatially mapped differences between the two long-
term averages give some indication of the variability over the same time-
averaging periods typically used as baselines for climate change
scenarios, although the large overlap between the two (1971–1990)
means that the full measure of this variability is not reflected. The colour
scales in maps have been chosen to make the information as easily
assimilated as possible; this means that not all the scales are the same.
The highest scale interval is sometimes wider than the others to allow the
inclusion of a few higher value points which do not necessitate a new
colour bar.
The maps provide a very visual and easy way to view the changes that
have occurred and, therefore, detailed written interpretation is not
required. This section therefore provides a brief summary of the long-term
changes and trends evident in the data presented in tables and maps in
sections 2.1-2.9, and references the relevant figures being discussed.
Temperature
The spatial variation in mean temperature is largely determined by

elevation, with mean annual temperatures up to 4°C cooler in the
northern and eastern regions of Greater Manchester, associated with the
higher altitude of the Pennine hills and Peak District National Park (see
Figure 1). In addition, a clear warm area is evident, containing
Manchester and Salford city centres, which intensifies in the later period,
1971-2000. Average annual changes between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000
are consistent across Greater Manchester.
Analysis of annual temperature changes over the longer period 1914-2006

reveals that there has been a significant increase in annual average daily
11
mean temperature, with two main periods of warming evident between
1920-1950 and 1975 onwards (figure 2). However, annual warming since
1985 has been at a much faster rate, indicated by the steepening of the
curve.
There has also been a consistent warming of the average daily maximum
temperature, both annually and for all seasons across Greater
Manchester. Most of the warming has occurred during the daytime in
summer. Table 4 indicates that the average maximum temperature across
Greater Manchester in July increased on average by around 0.6°C
between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000.
Spatial patterns of the annual average daily maximum temperature across

Greater Manchester show higher temperatures in the south-west and
lower temperatures in the Pennine hills to the north and north-east (figure
3). These spatial patterns in daily maximum temperature are similar
across all seasons (figures 4–7), and slightly more changes are evident in
the south of the conurbation.
Similarly, annual time series data for the summer maximum temperature
shows two key periods of warming, from 1920–1940 and 1970 onwards
(figure 9). The particularly warm summers of 1976 and 1995 can be easily
distinguished in the series.
The daily minimum or night-time temperature has also increased over the
period 1961–1990, but less than for daytime temperatures. The greatest
average temperature changes are evident in winter, around 0.4°C
increase between 1961–1990 and 1971–2000 (table 5). The increased
temperatures in the urban core area containing Manchester and Salford
city centres is particularly visible in the average daily minimum
temperature for summer, and this heat island also appears to have
increased spatially between the two thirty-year periods (figure 12). This
pattern of spatial change is also particularly visible in the average daily
minimum temperature for July (figure 16).
12
Degree days
Heating degree days1 (HDD) are an annual measure of when some form of
building heating is required. The spatial pattern of degree days across
Greater Manchester is analogous to that for temperatures (figure 17).
Annual heating degree days have decreased by around 4% over the
periods 1961–1990 compared to 1971–2000, due to the increase in mean
temperatures over this period, thereby reducing the need for heating.
Slightly more change has been seen towards the north-eastern region of
the conurbation.
Cooling degree days2 (CDD) are a measure of when some form of cooling
of buildings (either via mechanical cooling or natural ventilation) is
required. There are very few annual cooling degree days in Greater
Manchester, with most occurring in the central and south of the
conurbation which experiences warmer temperatures due to the greater
proportion of built environment and urban heat island effect (figure 18). A
very small increase in cooling degree days was evident between the two
thirty-year periods of 1961–1990 and 1971–2000, again with greater
increases in the central and southern areas of the conurbation.
Air frost
There is a large spatial range in the annual number of days with air frosts3
across Greater Manchester, which in the period 1961-1990, ranged from
fewer than 40 days in central and south Manchester to over 90 days in the
east of the conurbation stretching out to the Pennine hills (figure 19). The
greatest reduction in air frosts has been in the upland areas of the
conurbation, which have experienced a reduction of up to 8 days;
compared to an average of around 5 days across the conurbation.
1
HDD are derived by calculating the number of degrees Celsius that the daily mean
temperature is below 15.5°C for every day of the year (ignoring negative values), summed
for all days of the year (Jenkins et al 2007).
2
CDD are derived by calculating the number of degrees Celsius that the mean
temperature is above 22°C for every day of the year (ignoring negative values), summed
for all days of the year (Jenkins et al 2007).
3
An 'air frost' occurs when the temperature at 1.25 metres above the ground falls below
0°C. This is different to a 'ground frost' which refers to a temperature below 0°C measured
on a grass surface.
13
Rainfall
Rainfall varies considerably across Greater Manchester (figure 20), with

rainfall closely following terrain, and much higher rainfall amounts being
received in the northern and eastern areas of Greater Manchester – up to
1700 mm per year, compared to less than 900 mm of rainfall annually in
south Manchester (GM average 1961–1990: 1073 mm).
Analysis of changes in summer rainfall (June to August) between 1961–

1990 and 1971-2000 indicate that rainfall has reduced by around 5% on
average across Greater Manchester (table 9); however, some areas
indicate a reduction of up to 10% (figure 22), and even greater reductions
are evident in monthly rainfall for July (figure 26). Conversely, analysis of
the spatial changes in winter rainfall (December to February) show an
average increase of around 5% across Greater Manchester between
1961–1990 and 1971–2000 (table 8). Analysis of seasonal changes in
rainfall (figures 20–24) show how localised the spatial change has been,
with no clear pattern of change across the conurbation, except perhaps for
winter, where greatest increases have occurred towards the north of the
conurbation.
Analysis of annual time-series data of summer rainfall over the longer

time-period of 1914–2006 reveals a great amount of variability in the
rainfall series, which has no significant linear trend over the period
studied. The greatest amount of rainfall received in summer was around
495 mm in 1956; this contrasts greatly to the notoriously hot and dry
summer of 1976 when only around 74 mm of rainfall was received on
average across Greater Manchester (figure 27). Annual time-series data of
winter rainfall also shows no significant linear trend over the period 1915–
2006, and the high degree of variability is shown in Figure 28. The
greatest amount of winter rainfall on average across Greater Manchester
within this time-period was 468 mm in winter 1995, compared to the
lowest amount of just 92 mm in winter 1964.
Days of heavy rain
Heavy rainfall days are defined as days which receive 10 mm or more.

Spatial analysis of heavy rainfall days reveals a greater number in the
northern and eastern regions of the conurbation associated with higher
elevation (figure 29). There have been very small changes in the number
14
of heavy rain days between 1961–1990 to 1971–2000, in the order of less
than one day per year or up to 1% increase annually (table 10).
Wind speed
Analysis of changes in wind speed suggest that average wind speeds are
decreasing annually and in all seasons, with the greatest reductions in
summer averages, with a decrease of around 5.4% evident between
1961–1990 and 1971–2000 (table 11). Whilst information about average
wind speeds are useful for some applications, such as for wind energy
information, it is information about extremes that is most useful for
impact studies, due to the potential damage caused by high wind speeds.
Unfortunately, due to the large variability in wind speeds (both temporal
and spatial scales), incomplete and unreliable data, it is not possible at
present to investigate if extremes in wind speed are changing.
2.1 Mean temperature
Table 3. Averages and changes in mean temperature
Average GM Average GM Change

Time period
1961-1990 (°C) 1971-2000 (°C) (°C)
Annual 8.94 9.21 0.28
Spring 7.80 8.15 0.35
Summer 14.68 14.95 0.27
Autumn 9.65 9.71 0.06
Winter 3.62 4.04 0.43
January 3.35 3.71 0.37
July 15.29 15.79 0.50
15
Figure 1. Annual average daily mean temperature (°C) for 1961-1990,
1971-2000 and change between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000
Figure 2. Annual average daily mean temperature for Greater Manchester,

1914-20064
12
11
Mean temperature (°C)
10
7
1914 1920 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004
Year
4
Statistical analysis (the rank-based non-parametric Kendall’s Tau test) reveals that the
linear trend in increasing temperature between 1914–2006 is significant to the 1% level.
16
2.2 Daily maximum temperature
Table 4. Summary statistics of averages and change in maximum

temperature
Average GM Average GM
Time period 1961-1990 1971-2000 Change (°C)
(°C) (°C)
Annual 16.64 17.03 0.39
Spring 11.47 11.84 0.37
Summer 18.58 18.90 0.32
Autumn 12.76 12.85 0.09
Winter 7.10 7.49 0.39
January 5.92 6.32 0.41
July 19.11 19.75 0.64
Figure 3. Annual average daily maximum temperature (°C) for 1961–

1990, 1971–2000 and change between 1961–1990 and 1971–2000
17
Figure 4. Average daily maximum temperature (°C) for spring for 1961-
1990, 1971-2000, and change between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000
Figure 5. Average daily maximum temperature (°C) for summer for 1961-
18
Figure 6. Average daily maximum temperature (°C) for autumn for 1961-
Figure 7. Average daily maximum temperature (°C) for winter for 1961-
19
Figure 8. Average daily maximum temperature (°C) for July for 1961-
Figure 9. Daily maximum temperature in summer for Greater Manchester,

1914-20065
23
22
Maximum temperature (°C)
21
20
19
18
17
16
1914192019261932193819441950195619621968197419801986199219982004
Year
5
Statistical analysis (the rank-based non-parametric Kendall’s Tau test) reveals that the
linear trend is not statistically significant. This does not contradict future projections or
changes evident, rather it is a result of the high variability and short time scale used
(Jenkins et al 2007). The curve is fitted using a polynomial trendline.
20
2.3 Daily minimum temperature
Table 5. Summary statistics of averages and change in daily minimum

temperature
Time period 1961-1990 1971-2000 Change (°C)
(°C) (°C)
Annual 5.62 5.86 0.23
Spring 4.13 4.44 0.31
Summer 10.82 11.03 0.21
Autumn 6.51 6.54 0.04
Winter 1.04 1.42 0.38
January 0.83 1.15 0.32
July 11.51 11.86 0.36
Figure 10. Annual average daily minimum temperature (°C) for 1961-
21
Figure 11. Average daily minimum temperature (°C) for spring for 1961-
Figure 12. Average daily minimum temperature (°C) for summer for
1961-1990, 1971-2000, and change between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000
22
Figure 13. Average daily minimum temperature (°C) for autumn for 1961-
Figure 14. Average daily minimum temperature (°C) for winter for 1961-
23
Figure 15. Average daily minimum temperature (°C) for January for 1961-
Figure 16. Average daily minimum temperature (°C) for July for 1961-
24
2.4 Heating degree days
Table 6. Summary statistics of averages and change in heating degree

days
Time Change (DD
1961-1990 1971-2000
period index / %)
(DD index) (DD index)
Annual 2550.4 2455.4 -95 / -3.7
Figure 17. Annual average heating degree days (HDD) for 1961-1990,
1971-2000, and percentage change between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000
25
2.5 Cooling degree days
Table 7. Summary statistics of averages and change in cooling degree

days
Change (DD
Time period 1961-1990 (DD 1971-2000 (DD
index / %)
index) index)
Annual 12.9 16.4 3.5 / 21
Figure 18. Annual average cooling degree days (CDD) for 1961-1990,
1971-2000, and change between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000
26
2.6 Days of air frost
Table 8. Summary statistics of averages and change in days of air frost
Change
Time period 1961-1990 1971-2000
(days)
(days) (days)
Annual 50.5 45.7 -4.8
Figure 19. Annual average days of air frost for 1961-1990, 1971-2000,
and change between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000
27
2.7 Total precipitation
Table 9. Summary statistics of averages and change in precipitation
Time period 1961–1990 1971–2000 Change (%)
(mm) (mm)
Annual 1072.53 1068.82 -0.39
Spring 224.10 219.44 -2.14
Summer 257.77 243.50 -5.52
Autumn 314.09 314.14 0.10
Winter 276.57 291.74 5.31
January 99.62 103.55 3.89
July 77.94 71.45 -8.36
Figure 20. Annual average total precipitation amount (mm) for 1961–
00
28
Figure 21. Average total precipitation amount (mm) for spring for 1961–
00
Figure 22. Average total precipitation amount (mm) for summer for
1961–1990, 1971–2000, and percentage change between 1961–90 and 1
971–00
29
Figure 23. Average total precipitation amount (mm) for autumn for 1961–
1990, 1971–2000, and percentage change between 1961–90 and
1971–00
Figure 24. Average total precipitation amount (mm) for winter for 1961–
00
30
Figure 25. Average total precipitation amount (mm) for January for
1961–1990, 1971–2000, and percentage change between 1961–90 and
1971–00
Figure 26. Average total precipitation amount (mm) for July for 1961–
00
31
Figure 27. Total summer precipitation (mm) for Greater Manchester,
1914–20066
500
450
400
Precipitation (mm)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
1914 1920 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004
Year
Figure 28. Total winter precipitation (mm) for Greater Manchester, 1914–
20067
500
450
400
Precipitation (mm)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
6,7
The curve is fitted using a polynomial trendline. The linear trend is not significant
(Kendall’s Tau statistical test) due to high natural variability in rainfall series and short
observational datasets: unambiguous trends are likely to continue in some variables for
decades to come (Jenkins et al 2007).
32
2.8 Days of heavy rain
Table 10. Summary statistics of averages and change in heavy rain days
Change
Time period 1961–1990 1971–2000
(days)
(days) (days)
Annual 33.2 33.8 0.6
Spring 6.4 6.4 Less than

0.01
Summer 7.9 7.5 -0.4
Autumn 10.4 10.6 0.2
Winter 8.5 9.3 0.8
Figure 29. Average annual days of heavy rain (≥ 10mm) for 1961–1990,
33
2.9 Wind speed
Table 11. Summary statistics of averages and change in wind speed
Time Change
1961–1990 1971–2000
period (%)
(knots) (knots)
Annual 8.64 8.33 -3.7
Spring 9.02 8.61 -4.5
Summer 8.06 7.64 -5.4
Autumn 8.18 7.91 -3.3
Winter 9.28 9.14 -1.6
Figure 30. Annual average 10m mean wind speed (knots) for 1961–1990, 1971–
2000, and percentage change between 1961–1990 and 1971–2000
Figure 31. Average 10m mean wind speed (knots) for spring for 1961–1990,
Figure 32. Average 10m mean wind speed (knots) for summer for 1961–1990,
35
Figure 33. Average 10m mean wind speed (knots) for autumn for 1961–1990,
Figure 34. Average 10m mean wind speed (knots) for autumn for 1961–1990,
36
3 Conclusion
The climate across Greater Manchester is varied, owing mostly to the differences
in land use, land cover, elevation and population characteristics. Spatial patterns
across Greater Manchester for nine climatic variables have been illustrated in
mapped outputs in this report for two thirty-year periods, 1961–1990 and 1971–
2000.
The climate of Greater Manchester has changed throughout history, and changes
are evident even across the overlapping time periods of 1961–1990 and 1971–
2000. Analysis of changes in spatial patterns over time has shown that there has
been a consistent warming of temperature, across all seasons, both during the
day and night-time. Trends in annual warming are statistically significant. The
greatest amount of warming has occurred during the daytime in summer. The
decrease in heating degree days and air frosts, and increase in cooling degree
days supports the consistent pattern of warming.
Changes in rainfall between two 30-year periods of 1961–1990 and 1971–2000

show an enhanced seasonal variation, with an increase in winter precipitation
and a decrease in summer precipitation. Very small changes are evident in the
spring and autumn seasons, and the degree of changes are not systematic
across Greater Manchester due to the localised nature and great variability of
rainfall across the conurbation.
Table 12 provides an overview of the trends in changes in all of the nine climate
variables by season. The direction and amount of change for each of the
variables is in line with the future climate projections for Greater Manchester
(see Cavan 2011) for further information.
37
Table 12. Overview of the trends observed in the nine climate variables
Change between 1961–1990 to 1971–2000

by season / month
Climate variable
(+ increase; - decrease)
Ann Spr Sum Aut Win Jan July
Mean temperature + + + + + + +
Daily maximum temperature + + + + + + +
Daily minimum temperature + + + + + + +
Heating degree days -
Cooling degree days +
Days of frost -
Total precipitation - - - + + + -
Days of heavy rain - - + +
Wind speed at 10m - - - - -
Acknowledgement
All data presented in figures and tables in this report is © Crown Copyright
Published by the Met Office 2009.
38
4 References
Cavan, G. 2011. Climate change projections for Greater Manchester. EcoCities

Project, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Hollis, D. and Perry, M. 2004. A new set of long-term averages for the UK. Met
Office, Exeter, UK.
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Recent changes and trends in

Greater Manchester’s climate

© University of Manchester. 2010.

School of Environment and Development

This report should be referenced as:

Cavan, G. (2010). Recent changes and trends in Greater Manchester’s

1.1 The Met Office 1 km gridded data 9

2 Summary of long-term averages, changes and trends 11

2.1 Mean temperature 15

2.2 Daily maximum temperature 17

2.3 Daily minimum temperature 21

2.4 Heating degree days 25

2.5 Cooling degree days 26

2.6 Days of air frost 27

2.7 Total precipitation 28

2.8 Days of heavy rain 33

2.9 Wind speed 34

Figure 1. Annual average daily mean temperature (°C) for 1961–1990,

Figure 2. Annual average daily mean temperature for Greater Manchester,

Figure 3. Annual average daily maximum temperature (°C) for 1961–

Figure 9. Daily maximum temperature in summer for Greater Manchester,

Figure 27. Total summer precipitation (mm) for Greater Manchester,

Table 1. Description of the climate variables 8

Table 2. Summary of information included in this report 8

Table 3. Averages and changes in mean temperature 15

Table 4. Summary statistics of averages and change in maximum

Table 5. Summary statistics of averages and change in daily minimum

Table 6. Summary statistics of averages and change in heating degree

Table 7. Summary statistics of averages and change in cooling degree

Table 8. Summary statistics of averages and change in days of air frost 27

Table 9. Summary statistics of averages and change in precipitation 28

Table 11. Summary statistics of averages and change in wind speed 34

This report provides an overview of historical climate records and recent

The report is organised by variable, for example, long-term averages in

Climate variable Description Units

Table 2. Summary of information included in this report

1961- 1971- Differences Season / time period

The 30-year period 1961–1990 is the international standard reference

Analysis of the averages, recent changes and trends in Greater

The spatial variation in mean temperature is largely determined by

Analysis of annual temperature changes over the longer period 1914-2006

Spatial patterns of the annual average daily maximum temperature across

Rainfall varies considerably across Greater Manchester (figure 20), with

Analysis of changes in summer rainfall (June to August) between 1961–

Analysis of annual time-series data of summer rainfall over the longer

Days of heavy rain

Heavy rainfall days are defined as days which receive 10 mm or more.

2.1 Mean temperature

Table 3. Averages and changes in mean temperature

Average GM Average GM Change

Annual 8.94 9.21 0.28

Spring 7.80 8.15 0.35

Summer 14.68 14.95 0.27

Autumn 9.65 9.71 0.06

Winter 3.62 4.04 0.43

January 3.35 3.71 0.37

July 15.29 15.79 0.50

Figure 2. Annual average daily mean temperature for Greater Manchester,

Table 4. Summary statistics of averages and change in maximum

Annual 16.64 17.03 0.39

Spring 11.47 11.84 0.37

Summer 18.58 18.90 0.32

Autumn 12.76 12.85 0.09