Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Objective
- Provide an accurate assessment of the performance of products in terms
of sales (volume and value) and availability (distribution)
Applications
- Monitor brand health and performance
- Monitor competition
- Understand market opportunities and threats
- Develop market strategies
- Set goals and targets
- Evaluate sales, distribution and business performance
- Evaluate performance of individuals - business leaders, marketing and
sales personnel (?)
Bart Becht
Market Size/Share analysis - key input for market strategy
Chart analysing firm’s growth across region
Growing faster than
MAT 30
category, gaining market
CN share
Market $
KR
25
Firm
($)
15
HK
10
VN
JP
MY
5
%
TH
Market Value Growth%
0
(5) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
SG TW
(5)
Approaches to tracking & measuring sales on an ongoing basis
…
Richer data
that yields Most efficient and accurate
Insights method of measuring and
monitoring market
movements
Data Pooling
Low cost but
unreliable
Shoppers Retail
Homes Manufacturers
Outlets
…
Width and depth … basic components of sales
Distribution Penetration
% of Stores % of homes
buying
Retail
Index
Consumer
Panel
Sales Sales
No of stores distributing x Sales per store No of homes buying x Volume per buyer
Retail Measurement
Arthur C. Nielsen
(1897-1980)
Retail Measurement Services
5. Process/Validate Data
TOTAL
REGIONS
Villages??
Client Agency
Modern
3.5%
Traditional
35.6%
Traditional Modern
96.5% 64.4%
China: Modern trade during the boom years 2004 - 2006
51807
+14%
National Towns and Cities 45343
(73,907 stores) +20%
37925
+3%
+2%
13789
13117 13339
+22%
+27% 6799
+13% +12% 4399 5577
1189 1512
1346
Name
Address (incl. directions)
Telephone number
Shop Type
Presence of Air-conditioning
Refrigeration Facilities
Number of hours open per day
Monthly Turnover
Sales Mix : floor space/turnover
1. Define Universe
2. Undertake Census
3. Establish Sample
More dots
Less dots
Setting Up the Sample
Purchases
(Invoices) Stocks
Consumer Purchases
Consumers
Computing Sales
Sales (25th Feb to 25th Mar) = Opening Stock – Closing Stock + Purchases
= 500 – 700 + 1200 = 1000
Process/Expand the data
Simplified example - Numeric Estimation
Time
Annual (MAT)
Monthly
Weekly(Scan services)
Data Types
Sales Volume
The sales volume for the audit period.
Sales Value
The sales value for the audit period.
Average Price
Average Price is calculated as follows:
Total Sales Value ÷ Total Sales Volume
Retailer Purchases
The volume of purchase made by retailers in the audit period. Returns
to wholesalers and wholesale sales are offset from this figure.
Retailer purchases not reported in Scan Channels
Retail Index - Reported Data Types
Stock
Includes all retailer stock whether on display, on the shop floor space or
stock room.
Forward Stock
Stock in the store’s selling area which can easily be accessed by customers.
For example stock placed inside chillers, freezers, cabinets or on shelf.
Universe: 10 Stores
Distribution
Handlers (6):
Category Sales: 20 20 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5
$ ‘000
Stocked ... Either sales or
purchases, but
In stock Distribution Period no stocks …
1 2 3 4 Out of Stock
Distribution
Purchase
Closing Stock
No sales, no
Distribution Yes Yes Yes No purchases, no
stocks …
No Distribution
Stock Out No No Yes -
Stock Out and Loss of Distribution
Period
1 2 3 4
Purchase
Closing Stock
Now what …
Distribution Yes Yes Yes ? Is it still loss of
distribution??
Stock Out No No Yes ?
What about Scan Channels
Different Universe
Pipeline
- Lag between shipment and consumer purchase
- Irregular shipment patterns
- Investment buying
- Promotions
- Changes in Warehouse inventory or pipeline
- Product life cycle
Parallels … as well as exports
Inaccuracies in measurement such as when the product’s
distribution is low
Different Universe: Coverage is usually less than 100%, since the Total
Shipment from the factory can reach Markets not covered by research agency
?
Universe, Pipeline, Coverage
Imports
Exports
Retailer’s
Retailer
Covered
Warehouse
Sales
Shipments
Retailer
Street Hawkers
Conflict Resolution
Examples: Kraft changes distribution network
Example: Expected Coverage = 80%
% of shipments to
100% Universe picked up by
measurement service
72%
Pick-Up
= 72/80
80%: Based on
= 90%
supplier’s
records/judgement
“Measured World”
Coverage - Summary