REPUBLIC OF KENYA

MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT & FORESTRY

STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT
KENYA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Road, P. O. Box 30259, 00100 GPO, Nairobi, Kenya
Telephone: 254 (0) 20 3867880-7, Fax: 254 (0) 20 3876955/3877373/3867888,
e-mail: director@meteo.go.ke, info@meteo.go.ke Website: http://www.meteo.go.ke

WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN-DAY PERIOD VALID 8TH TO 14TH
MAY, 2018
Issue Date: 07/05/2018

Review of weather for the last seven-day
period (30th April to 6th May, 2018):
 Several parts of the country continued to receive
rainfall;
 Total rainfall amounts increased over the Coast but
decreased over most other parts of the country;
 Daytime (maximum) temperatures generally increased
while nighttime (minimum) temperatures decreased
over most areas but increased over a few others.
Forecast for the next seven days (8th
to 14th May, 2018):
The forecast indicates that:
 Several areas within the Lake Victoria Basin, the
Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Central and
South Rift Valley, the Central Highlands (including
Nairobi area) and the Coast are expected to continue
receiving rainfall for much of the forecast period;
 The Northeast, Northwest and Southeast Lowlands
are likely receive light to moderate rainfall on a few
days during the forecast period;
 The Coast is likely to receive heavy rainfall during the
first half of the forecast period.

1. WEATHER REVIEW FOR THE LAST SEVEN DAYS (30TH APRIL TO 6TH MAY, 2018)
1.1 Rainfall Review

Several parts of the country continued to receive rainfall as depicted in Figures 1 and 2.Comparing the current
review period (30th April to 6th May) to the previous week (23rd to 29th April), total rainfall amounts increased
over the Coast but decreased over most other parts of the country.

Nevertheless, the impacts of the heavy rains that have been pounding various parts of the country during this
rainy season continue to be felt. Schools in Tana River and Baringo Counties are grappling with flooded classes
and latrines while several were left homeless by landslides in Tharaka-Nithi County.

Shimo la Tewa Secondary School in Mombasa County recorded the highest seven-day total rainfall of
288.8mm. Other stations that recorded seven-day rainfall totals of more than 100mm were: SOS Nyali
(Mombasa County), Mtwapa, Lamu, Mombasa, Voroni Primary School (Mombasa County), Malindi, Bamburi
Cement (Mombasa County), Iyego (Murang’a County), Kangema, Msabaha, Kabarak, Tuthu (Murang’a County),
Kanduyi Agricultural Station (Bungoma County) and Moi Girls Kamusinga(Bungoma County).
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 Iyego Rainfall Station recorded the highest amount of rainfall within 24 hours (102.9mm on 1st May). Other
stations that received very heavy rainfall (>50mm) within 24 hours Bamburi Cement (102.5mm), Mombasa
(98.7mm), Shimo la Tewa Secondary School(91.6mm), Lamu(88.3mm), Voroni Primary School(78.4mm), SOS
Nyali(69.9mm), Thika (69.2mm), Mtwapa (66.1mm), Kangema(66.0mm), Malindi (64.5mm), Kabarak (54.1mm),
Tuthu in Murang’a County (53.8mm) and JKIA(51.7mm).Some stations that recorded heavy rainfall (20-50mm)
include Embu, Karurumo (Murang’a County), Moi Air Base, Eldoret Airport, Msabaha, Marsabit, Nyeri, Kanduyi
Agricultural Station and Kapenguria WRMA as depicted in Figure 3.

1.2 Temperature

During the review period, day-time (maximum) temperatures generally increased slightly over most parts of
the country but there was a significant decrease over the Coast where heavy rainfall was recorded over the

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 past one week.Night-time (minimum) temperatures decreased over most parts of the country notably in
Laikipia, Nyahururu and Coastal stations although a few stations like Eldoret, Lodwar and Kangema recorded
slight increases.

Lodwar Meteorological Station recorded the highest daily maximum temperature of 34.9°C on 4th May while
Nyahururu Meteorological Station recorded the lowest daily minimum temperature of 8.5oC on 30th April and
6th May.The same stations recorded the highest seven-day average maximum temperature of 34.0oC and the
lowest seven-day average minimum temperature of 9.9°C respectively. (SeeFigure 4 below)

2. FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS FROM 8TH TO 14TH MAY, 2018

The forecast for the next seven day period (8th to 14th May2018) indicates that:

 Several areas within the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Central and South
Rift Valley, the Central Highlands (including Nairobi area) and the Coast are expected to continue
receiving rainfall for much of the forecast period;
 The Northeast, Northwest and Southeast Lowlands are likely receive light to moderate rainfall on a few
days during the forecast period;
 The Coast is likely to receive heavy rainfall during the first half of the forecast period.
Possible Impacts:
 Flooding is likely to continue occurring during the first half of the forecast period especially in low-lying
and poorly drained areas that have already been receiving heavy rainfall;
 There is also a possibility of land-slides occurring in areas where the soils have become saturated with
rain and flood waters;
 Traffic disruptions are likely to occur in urban areas during heavy downpours.

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 DETAILED REGIONAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS 8TH TO 14TH MAY, 2018

The Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central and South Rift Valley (counties of Siaya,
Kisumu, Homabay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, UasinGishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi, Laikipia,
Nakuru, Narok, Kajiado, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma and Busia) are expected to experience
morning rains over few places on Tuesday and sunny intervals on the other days. Afternoon/evening showers
are expected over several places throughout the forecast period.

Northwestern (counties of Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu) are expected to experience mainly sunny
intervals during the day and partly cloudy skies during the night. However, there is a possibility of morning rains
over few places on Thursday and afternoon showers over few places on Tuesday, Thursday, Friday and Sunday.

Central Highlands including, Nairobi area (counties of Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu,
Meru, Embu, and Tharaka) are expected to experience cloudy mornings with a possibility of rains over few
places. Afternoon/evening showers are expected over several places on Wednesday and Sunday and over few
places on the other days.

Northeastern (counties of Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo) are expected to experience mainly
sunny intervals during the day and partly cloudy skies during the night. However, there is a possibility of
afternoon showers over few places between Tuesday and Thursday as well as on Sunday.

Southeastern Lowlands(counties of Kitui, Makueni, Machakos and Taita Taveta) are expected to experience
mainly sunny intervals during the day and partly cloudy skies during the night. However, there is a possibility of
afternoon showers over few places between Tuesday and Thursday as well as on Sunday.

The Coastal Strip (counties of Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale) are expected to experience
morning and early afternoon showers over several places on Tuesday and Wednesday. The other days are likely
to experience morning and early afternoon showers over few places.

N.B: This forecast should be used in conjunction with the daily (24-hour) forecast issued by this Department.

KEY OF SCIENTIFIC WORDS USED

Rainfall categories Rainfall coverage

Range Category Term Meaning
<5 mm Light Most Places Between 66% and 100%
5 - 20mm Moderate Several Places Between 33% and 66%
20 - 50mm Heavy Few Places Between 0 and 33%
>50mm Very heavy

J. Gacheru-Ongoma
FOR THE DIRECTOR OF KENYA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

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