Initial Assessment of NBS Energy Data Revisions

Nathaniel Aden
LBNL China Energy Group
September 2010

In July 2010, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published revised energy production,
consumption, and intensity data covering the years 1996 to 2008.1 These numbers superseded
a 2005 revision that covered energy data from 1998 to 2003. Figure 1 illustrates the revisions
to total primary energy use; the dotted line shows data from the 2005 revision and data
published in subsequent statistical yearbooks through 2009. The largest annual revision was an
addition of 149 million tonnes coal equivalent (Mtce) total primary energy consumption in 2007.
The average annual upward revision was 5% between 2000 and 2008.

Figure 1: China Total Primary Energy Consumption (1990-2008)

3,500

2010 Revised Primary Energy Use

3,000

Original Primary Energy Use

Total Primary Energy Use (mtce)

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

A major driver of the upward energy revisions was coal use and production. Figure 2 illustrates
the revision of Chinese domestic coal production data in 2005 and 2010. Year 2000 coal
production was upwardly revised by 300 million tonnes in 2005 and raised by an additional 85
million tonnes in 2010. From 2004 through 2007, the average annual upward revision of coal
production was 7%.

1
NBS. 2010. China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2009. Beijing: China Statistics Press.
Figure 2: China Coal Production Data Revisions (1996-2008)

3,000
2010 Revision
2,500
Coal Production (mt)

2,000
2005 Revision
1,500

1,000
Original Data
500

-
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

What drove the upward revision of Chinese coal production data? Industry consumed more
coal than initially estimated. Figure 3 shows revisions of industry final coal use between 1996
and 2008. The first year of revisions represent an anomaly insofar as industry total final coal
use was actually reduced. Industry final coal use in 2007 was raised by 130 million tonnes.

Figure 3: China Industry Final Coal Consumption Data Revisions (1996-2008)

700

600
Industry Final Coal Use (mt)

500

400

300

2010 Revision
200
2005 Revision
100
Original data

0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

2
The 2010 statistical revisions extended from total primary energy to industry sub-sector final
energy use. In 2008, the steel sector accounted for 12% of industry final coal consumption.
Figure 4 shows the upward revision of China's steel sector final energy use data. Between 2000
and 2007, steel sector final energy use was upwardly revised by an average of 6%. Industry
production data were not included in the 2010 revisions, thereby implying higher values for
physical energy intensity of production in China.

Figure 4: Steel Sector Total Final Energy Use (1996-2008)

600

2010 Revision
500
Original/2005
Final Energy Use (mtce)

400

300

200

100

0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Industrial final coal combustion accounted for the largest share of China's energy use revisions.
However, other sectors' final coal use, coal transformation use (primarily for electricity), and
other fuel use data were also revised. Total final oil consumption data, for example, were
adjusted very slightly, while the structure of usage has undergone extensive revisions. The re-
allocation has increased transport and industry oil consumption at the expense of other end
uses; Figure 5 shows the average 10% increase of transport primary energy use between 2000
and 2008. Coal transformation revisions were sporadic (7 of 12 years had adjustments) and
mostly downward.

3
Figure 5: Transport Sector Primary Energy Use (1995-2008)

250

2010 revision
Total Primary Energy Use (mtce)

200

2005/original data
150

100

50

-
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Note: the NBS energy balance category includes "Transport, Storage & Post"

The growth of transport total primary energy use reflects the extensive sectoral re-allocation of
final oil use in the 2009 CESY. In 2005, for example, total final oil use was upwardly revised by
only 0.02 million tonnes. However, the sectoral allocation of 2005 final oil use changed
extensively with transportation increasing by 10 mt and residential increasing by 5 mt oil while
agriculture diminished by 6 mt, industry by 2 mt, commercial buildings by 5 mt, and "other" by
1 mt. These re-allocations suggest extensive boundary revisions to NBS final energy use
categories.

Figure 6: Transport Final Consumption of Petroleum Products (1996-2008)

140

2010 Revision
120
2005 Revision/Original
Total Petroleum Product Use (mt)

100

80

60

40

20

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Note: the NBS energy balance category includes "Transport, Storage, Postal & Telecommunications Services"

4
The 2010 energy revisions have shown increased industry and transport energy use and coal
production compared to earlier data. One effect of these revisions is to make China's total
primary energy production more carbon dioxide intensive. Figure 7 shows the effect of recent
data revisions on the carbon dioxide intensiveness of primary energy production; emissions
were calculated on the basis of Revised 1996 IPCC reference values. Average carbon-
intensiveness of primary energy production in China was revised upwards by an average of 1%
between 2000 and 2008 due to the diminished share of non-fossil energy production in the
revised data.

Figure 7: Carbon Dioxide Intensiveness of Chinese Primary Energy Production (1990-2008)

2.95
2010 revision
Carbon Intensiveness of Energy (mt CO2/mtce)

2009 CSYB

2.90

2.85

2.80

2.75
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Note: Y-axis not zero scaled; based on fossil fuel combustion emission coefficients from IPCC.

GDP growth figures in the recently released China Energy Statistical Yearbook (CESY) were also
revised for the period from 2005-2008 when compared with the 2009 China Statistical
Yearbook (CSYB), which was published in September 2009. Figure 8 shows the total primary
energy use for each unit of GDP (measured in constant year 2005 RMB). Energy and GDP data
revisions raised earlier energy intensity of GDP while leaving the 2008 level at 113 grams coal
equivalent per RMB.2

2
The CESY 2009 lists energy intensiveness of GDP as 112 gce/2005 RMB; the difference is assumed to be due to
rounding errors.

5
Figure 8: Energy Intensity of GDP Data Revisions (1990-2008)

250
2010 revision
2009 CSYB
200
EI of GDP (gce/2005 RMB)

150

100

50

-
1990 1995 2000 2005

The effect of the 2010 energy and GDP revisions on energy intensity is to move China closer to
achieving its Eleventh Five Year Plan target of 20% reduction between 2005 and 2010. Table 1
shows the annual and cumulative reductions of energy intensity of GDP using original and
revised energy and GDP data--the revisions effectively added 4.7 percentage points to the
cumulative reductions.

Table 1: Annual and Cumulative Reductions of Energy Intensity of GDP (2006-2008)

EI Reduction
2010 Revision Original Data
2006 2.7% 1.8%
2007 5.0% 4.6%
2008 5.2% 1.5%
2005-2008 12.5% 7.7%

This initial and limited assessment of China's energy statistical revisions has found the changes
and implications to be significant. Total Chinese primary energy use was revised upward for all
years between 1998 and 2008. This was largely due to upwardly revised industry coal
combustion, which also helped to account for an overall upward shift in the carbon
intensiveness of Chinese energy production. Sub-sector final energy use data were also revised,
though the changes were often not visible at a total final energy use level. Perhaps most
importantly for Chinese policy makers, the 2010 energy revisions brought the country closer to
achieving its energy intensity reduction targets. More work remains to be done for
understanding the full implications of China energy data revisions.