Introduction

More than 830 000 Rohingya refugees are sheltering in Bangladesh, having escaped
violence and persecution in Myanmar. This includes more than 618 000 people, the vast
majority women and children, who have fled since violence erupted on 25 August. The
momentum and scale of arrivals make this the world’s fastest growing refugee crisis. The
incoming refugees are housed or have sought shelter in Cox’s Bazar and its upazilas,
where extensive pressure is being placed on resources.

History

Off the 1million, Rohingyas are now reduced to half of its population in the Rakhine state of
Myanmar which shares an immediate border with Bangladesh. The border is porous and
demarcated by hill tracts and the Naf River. The Rohingya community are followers of Sufi variant
of Sunni Muslims and are significantly different from the Rakhine Buddhists who form the majority
in the Rakhine State, not only religiously but also linguistically and culturally. This differences form
the basis of the rift between the two communities in the state.
These rifts have time and again made significant numbers of Rohingyas homeless and forced
them to seek shelter in different neighbouring countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia,
India, Pakistan and significantly Bangladesh. Since 2012 the conflict is no more an intrastate
religious conflict but with the involvement of the army and Buddhist radical groups (like Ma Ba
Tha) it has acquired a nationalist rhetoric.
Rohingya were stripped off their citizenship rights by the 1982 Citizenship Law, excluded from the
listed 135 ethnic members in Myanmar and unanimously (domestically)segregated as the Bengali
migrant due to their similarities in religion, colour, and culture with Bangladesh. In 2014 National
census, Myanmar tried to introduce the word Rohingyas in the census list but changed it to
Bengali following vehement protest from the Buddhist nationalist and radical groups. Rohingya
were not part of the census not only because of de-recognition of their ethnic identity but also
because they opposed to being registered as Bengalis. The 2015 election in Myanmar which is
often hailed as the first free and fair election ushering in a democracy did not include votes of any
Rohingyas along several others in the IDP camps thereby cementing the national narrative of
ousting the Rohinyas off the collective imaginings of Burma. Apart from civil and political rights
there are several other restrictions on them which include free movement, marriage, education
and other basic human rights. The situation was further aggravated by the 2016 attack which was
claimed by insurgent group called Harakah al-Yakin (HAY). The present ARSA is said to be the
regrouped version of the old HAY group. These facts predicament worse for Bangladesh and
other neighbouring countries those who are unprepared to deal with influx of masses. About
500,000 of Rohingya have sought refuge in different countries as mentioned above. The major
brunt of this is been faced by Bangladesh who was caught unprepared with the inpouring of the
sheer number of people.

Effect on Bangladesh
3. Impact on the Cox’s Bazaar Area: The impact on the southern part of Bangladesh
along the border with Myanmar will be devastating. There are Rohingya spread out over
much of the area and it will be many months before they will have proper shelter, water
supply and sanitation. In the meantime there is widespread chaos as people fight for a
place to shelter. The assumption of this note is that the Rohingya will not return to
Myanmar before one year. Actually it is unlikely that they will ever return. Hopefully some
of these refugees will be relocated to other countries but that is very uncertain. Most will
stay in Bangladesh. How to manage the long term problem is unclear. Over time many
will find their way to other locations in Bangladesh. However, one must assume that in
the Cox’s Bazaar area there will be several hundred thousand for the next three
years. The Government will best deal with this by allowing the Rohingya to go to school
and to work. There is no reason that they should not go to work and contribute something
to Bangladesh and cover their own costs. Their presence will disrupt the Cox’s Bazaar
area for years to come. At least education and employment will ease everyone’s
problems. Available data indicate that Bangladeshis with low levels of education are fully
employed, so the Rohingya do not really threaten Bangladesh jobs.

4. Impact on politics: The major political event in the next two years is the Parliamentary
election. The prime minister has done a very good job in managing the Rohingya
crisis. Her international standing will certainly rise after her humane, firm handling of this
catastrophe. There will be plenty of difficulty in the next few months as the refugees
struggle to get settled, find adequate shelter, as everyone works to establish medical
facilities, to feed and care for the refugees and to control the movement and location of
the Rohingya. No one should think that management of this great inflow is simple.
Conflicts and tragedy will occur. But it is likely that the continuing steady hand of the PM
will get the country through the next two years. While there will be attacks on the PM for
her handling of the crisis these will be unconvincing. The impact on the election will be a
stronger AL that will benefit from the Rohingya influx. The population according to small
survey we did early in 2017 supports the PM’s approach.
For the next six months the Rohingya crisis will distract attention from election politics,
rumors of assassination attempts, and arguments over constitutional amendments. The
army will be busy helping to manage the Rohingya. Less talk about these political issues
is probably beneficial.

The international community will get very excited about the disruption potential of the
Rohingya influx. There are certainly domestic groups that have views as to what should
be done, but neither the military, nor the Islamic groups, nor the international NGOs will
have much impact on the direction of policy. The army has its hands full with the work on
the settling of the Rohingya, the Hefayet organization is doing good work in helping the
incoming refugees but their demand for jihad will go no where.

The opposition parties will make many statement and criticisms of the Government but
this has little impact on the real activity that is going on. The AL politicians will persist in
getting in the way of those doing the work but this hype will soon calm down. Those
dealing with the situation from the PM downwards have a tremendous amount of work to
do; this will dominate the political implications.

• Politicisation of the issue and impact on the domestic politics- This section can be
bifurcated into two sub divisions, namely:
Media Propaganda and its impact-Rohingya refugees have sought refuge in Bangladesh since
1978. However this was the first time it has garnered enormous empathy from the general masses
especially the urban middle and upper middle class in Bangladesh. Academicians recognised the
problem but however this was the first time Rohingya became the hot topic to discuss in every
news primetime and national newspaper. The credit for this change goes to the media
propaganda. The continuous coverage of the human stories the atrocities garnered huge public
sympathy for the Rohingyas both within and outside Bangladesh. Rohingyas were time and again
referred as brothers due to the religious affinity. In fact the Eid prayers in different mosque
included special mention about the Rohingya. Interestingly the reference of Rohingya is also a
new trend in Bangladesh. It seems that the sympathy of masses has enabled the refugees to
garner their ethnic identity as a Rohingya, the cause they have been fighting for, at least within
Bangladesh.

The role of the Civil Society and Religious groups-the support for the Rohingya as a cause
was evident by the protest marches by the Civil Societies such as Gono Jagoron Moncho.
Similarly, a rally was led by religious group like Hefazat e Islam on 6 October in Cox’s Bazar with
the demand for immediate stoppage to the atrocities on the Rohingyas. The support for the
refugees is appreciable but this can have dangerous fallout which could result into politicisation
of the Rohingya issues. Bangladesh is preparing for its next general elections in 2018, if politicised
this issue could play a major role in shaping the public opinion prior to the election.

Social strains

The refugees have changed the demographics of Bangladesh’s Ukhia and Teknaf areas,
where Rohingya now outnumber locals 2 to 1. Of the approximately 900,000 Rohingya,
73 percent are living in new spontaneous settlements, 13 percent in makeshift
settlements, 9 percent among host communities, and 5 percent in formal refugee camps.
Kutupalong camp is the largest and most densely populated refugee settlement in the
world.

Authorities want to prevent Rohingya from assimilating into the local population. Camps
are educating the Rohingya in English and Burmese, but not in Bengali. New refugees
are barred from Bangladeshi citizenship through either birth or marriage.

The birthrate among the Rohingya is also much higher than that of Bangladeshis; in 2018
alone, experts expect refugees to give birth to 48,000 babies — who will face severe risks
of malnutrition, disease and death. After diphtheria broke out in December, authorities
launched a massive vaccination campaign. Although immunization has long been
available to Bangladeshis — including in rural areas — public health officials worry that
waterborne and other communicable diseases might spread beyond the camps.
Refugees are also at risk for trafficking, including for sex, drugs and labor. Abul Kashem,
head of Help Cox’s Bazar — a local nongovernmental organization working to prevent
trafficking and raise awareness among youth — warns that organized crime networks are
eager to exploit those displaced by the crisis.

The fresh batch of Rohingya refugees have become the Achilles heels for the country. The
number is huge; the problem becomes worse due to the fact that they are not the only Rohingya
refugees in the country. There are several others, whose second generations are born in
Bangladesh. Before the arrival of the new batch, the previously present Rohingya have also been
a major cause of concern for the government. In 2013-14 there were several debates about
shifting the refugees to an island. This was meted out with lot of protest from the refugees as the
island was beyond liveable. Bangladesh is itself facing the cost of a population upsurge with
around 163 million people living in the small country. The additional numbers of Rohingya are
burden that the government has to manage. In addition, even if the government has been
receiving the Rohingyas, the locals in Chittagong where the Rohingya
have taken refugee were never happy with the uninvited guest. The biggest issue for them is land
acquisition. The Rohingya who come and settle in any piece of land and mostly take up private
property of some localities. They sometimes also unwillingly destroy crops. With every new
batches of influx there have been incidents of squabble with the local. Furthermore Chittagong is
a tourist destination due to its vicinity to Bay of Bengal. The refugee crisis has also severely
impacted tourism. Another reason that has irked the locals is the constant fear of security. Lack
of education and job among the refugees has increased the petty crimes and smugglings. The
Teknaf area is already infamous for smuggling and trafficking, the involvement of the Rohingya
especially those who have arrived previously makes the situation murky.

Environmental destruction

The environmental impact of 1 million refugees is difficult to overstate. The U.N.

Development Program recently released an environmental assessment, identifying 28
risk factors threatening biodiversity and human security. At the peak of the violence, each
week some 100,000 Rohingya — mainly women and children — were crossing into
Bangladesh. Where they settled, thousands of acres of national forests were cleared.
Areas previously inhabited by wild elephants are now barren. The lush, green, hilly
landscape has rapidly transformed into flattened stretches of red earth covered in tarp
tents as far as the eye can see.

Bangladesh is highly susceptible to climate change. For years the country has been
grappling with soil erosion, rising sea levels and frequent natural disasters such as
cyclones and floods. Landslides are extremely likely; many worry about what will happen
to the refugee settlements when the monsoon season arrives next month. Groundwater
sources are quickly being depleted and freshwater streams have become contaminated.
Air pollution in Ukhia and Tekfnaf has increased because of smoke from firewood burned
by refugees and exhaust from thousands of trucks, jeeps, and cars bringing people and
goods into the camps.

The dramatic environmental consequences of this massive migration and will last for
years, affecting people who live inland in Bangladesh and beyond.

As the world continues to grapple with large-scale population movements across borders
— whether because of conflict or Mother Nature — much deeper, context-specific
research on political, economic, social, security and environmental impacts is imperative
to helping neighboring countries manage protracted crises in humane and sustainable
ways. This is essential to ensuring that refugees do not become scapegoats in host
countries like Bangladesh, where frustration among ruling elites and the local population
may result in the forced return or further dislocation of the already dispossessed
Rohingya.

The refugee camp built up has a bearing on the agricultural fields and natural habitat of the area.
Several camps have been built on the tracks that elephant follows: the result has been unfortunate
trampling of refugees by the elephant. This might soon give rise to the man and animal conflict
which will further impact the refugees’ equation with the localities.
5. Food availability. The rice prices have stabilized with the realization that there is
plenty of food and stocking up at present high prices is foolish. The amount of food
required for the Rohingya is not enough to disturb the market. Total rice consumption by
Rohingya would be less than 0.2 million mts per year. This can easily be managed within
the availability of rice in the country and will not influence the rice prices in the national
economy. Food for vulnerable groups [pregnant women, women nursing infants, under 3
years old infants] will have to be handled by NGOs.

6. Economy. Bangladesh’s GDP per capita is a meager $1,400. However, in 2016 the
national economy grew by 7.1 percent, and the country has made remarkable progress
toward the Millennium Development Goals. While extensive international humanitarian
relief has poured in to support the refugees, that doesn’t cover all the economic costs to
the government or to the border region’s Bangladeshi citizens. The influx’s full effect may
not be apparent for some time.

The coastal town and beaches of Cox’s Bazar used to be Bangladesh’s main tourist
destination; now the area is awash with foreign aid workers. The area’s hoteliers are
prospering, and many Bangladeshis have found jobs with humanitarian organizations.
But day laborers and poorer locals have complained about price hikes for basic goods
and about losing work to refugees willing to accept far lower wages.

Refugees have not only hampered the tourism industry but they have also impacted the local
economy that has seen an upsurge in prices of daily consumption. Apart from the local economy
these refugees are huge burden on the national economy. This underdeveloped economy does
not know how to deal with providing basic necessities to this large influx. The aids from different
groups, Non Governmental Organisations (NGO) are assisting in this process. However there is
huge gap between the demand and the supply of food, water, medicines and medical facilities.

• Demography and challenge to security- Bangladesh similar to many of its neighbour is

facing a youth bulge, as majority of its population are young. According to the Bangladesh Bureau
of Statistic (BBS) two million youth of working age are unemployed. Terrorism has time and again
affected the country. Added to this, a number of refugees comprising of young, uneducated and
jobless youth is a reasonable cause of concern. These youths and men who have faced violence
in their homeland make a vulnerable bunch for recruitment in the business of smuggling, crime
and also by terrorist groups. Although ARSA and previously HAY have denied any linkages to
any international and terrorist groups, but link to Pakistan (the leader Ata Ullah is a Rohingya from
Karachi and also been brought up in Saudi Arabia) or rather future linkages cannot be ruled out
completely. If not ARSA, the young refugee could be easily lured into the local terrorist group.

Another aspect which is distressing is the fact that the new bunch saw the arrival of children,
women and old men. The men in the family have been the major target of Tatmadaw. There are
several women with small children with no other family member alive. These make them
vulnerable and also there are several reports on some women taking up prostitution for survival.
However presently the number is insignificantly low, as the Rohingya community is orthodox and
secondly the Bangladesh army has strictly restricted the movement. But fear and the concern
remain.

7. Military: Bangladesh will probably increase its military expenditures in the face of the
crisis. Conflict with Myanmar is now more likely. This may be a further expansionary
economic force. These greater military expenditures will also be needed to handle the
Rohingya camps. This assumes that peace will be maintained and that Bangladesh and
Myanmar will not get into a shooting war.

8. Relations with India will become frosty. If Indians throw out the 40,000 Rohingya
reported to be in India there will be a lot of resentment. There will be increased anger at
India for supporting Myanmar in carrying out such a nasty inhuman attack and then
condoning the expulsion of Rohingya to Bangladesh. India’s behavior is very
troublesome for Bangladesh. The former foreign secretary of India “reminding
Bangladesh” of the alleged 20 million Bangladeshis in India was a crude threat unworthy
of a senior officer of the Indian Government. All that comment did was to make
Bangladeshi elites angry. The bitter truth is that there are political groups in India who
are working with the Buddhists in Myanmar to carry out the ethnic cleansing. Indian’s
individual response stresses the humanitarian disaster, but the Indian Government’s
naive realpolitick is only annoying.
9. Relations with China will be less effected but the result is not good for China’s
reputation. Although there is much hype about the money coming from China this is an
illusion. In fact the real sources of financial support are the United States and Japan
through the World Bank and the ADB. These flows plus the bilateral flows from Japan
are in total far higher than the actual disbursed financing from India [less than $100 million
per annum], Russia [less than $500 million] and China [less than $750 million]
combined. There is a lot of noise about Chinese project financing but in fact there is
relatively little companied to the two main development banks and Japan. The betrayal
of Bangladesh’s interests by Russia, India and China is unfortunate and is a real
lesson. These three countries turn out to be fair weather friends.
10. Fundamentalism and security: There is no doubt that some Rohingya will be attracted
to Islamic fundamentalist views. Why would you think otherwise when the young men
have seen their families abused and killed? Young men will seek outlet for their
anger. Most Rohingya will find solace in their God and in prayer. ISIS agents and
promoters of fundamentalist views will try to corrupt the Rohingya and lead them towards
violence. This is an issue that the Government is alert to its importance, but nevertheless
it is deeply dangerous. Given the vulnerability of the young men to the appeal to fight for
vengeance and fairness, great care must be taken to prevent fundamentalist jihadist
recruiters from indoctrinating young Rohingya. The development of jihadist Rohingya will
be contained by the work of the Government in both preventing attempts to indoctrinate
young men and women and also by providing an educational system that guards against such
efforts. The authorities must be very careful, balancing firmness and compassion.
Way to resolve

Myanmar and Bangladesh recently announced an agreement for the repatriation of

Rohingya refugees living in Bangladesh to return to Myanmar. After Pope Francis
visited both countries last week, international attention has again focused on chances of
a breakthrough to this crisis – envisioning how a peaceful, negotiated solution might look
is an urgent task.

While the details of the deal remain hazy, a few basic facts have emerged. The agreement
builds on a memorandum signed between the governments of Myanmar and Bangladesh
following a similar Rohingya refugee crisis in 1992-3. Myanmar has agreed to resettle
refugees in temporary camps, protect their freedom of movement and issue identity cards
to those who can prove they previously resided in the country. But as Luke Hunt notes,
the requirements to prove residency are unrealistically stringent: people chased out of
burning homes and forced to flee violence, often without any supplies, will find it all but
impossible to provide paperwork to prove they or their kin lived in Myanmar.

Besides, the agreement is only the first step on the long road to restoring stability in
Rakhine State. Myanmar will have to make genuine political concessions to ensure
peace. The military must drastically reduce the scope of its 'clearance operations' and the
police provide security for vulnerable Rakhine and Rohingya alike - all of which should be
monitored by a neutral, international third party, ideally the UN. The military's decision to
replace the head of Western Command (responsible for Rakhine State) is a small step in
the right direction. But much more change is required to educate police in the importance
of preventing violence and protecting civilian populations in conflict zones. Allowing UN
'blue helmets' access to critical areas in Rakhine State can ensure further accountability.
While that may be anathema to the Myanmar military, or Tatmadaw, it may be the only
palatable compromise to avoid further international condemnation.

The international community's role

Washington has expressed support for the civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi
and decried the military's complicity in crimes against humanity. Shortly after returning
from his trip to Myanmar, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson announced the US would
label the violence in Rakhine State as 'ethnic cleansing,' a term that stops short of
genocide, which would necessitate international action. Nonetheless, Tillerson made it
clear the US is considering targeted sanctions against members of the Tatmadaw proven
to have a role in atrocities committed in Rakhine.

US policymakers have repeatedly urged Aung San Suu Kyi to follow through on her
commitments to implement the recommendations of the international commission on
Rakhine State that was led by former UN chief Kofi Annan. This includes repatriating and
resettling all Rohingya pushed into neighboring Bangladesh, and charting a clear path for
them to obtain citizenship (which many held prior to the 1982 citizenship law and 1983
census, which effectively excluded Rohingya). But for all its rhetorical gestures,
Washington has yet to detail a clear Myanmar policy.

Beijing recently proposed a three-step solution to the crisis. According to Chinese Foreign
Minister Wang Yi, the first stage should be a ceasefire to restore order, the second
strengthening exchanges between Myanmar and Bangladesh to solve the issue, and the
third involving international help to develop Rakhine. Such a solution may sound
simplistic, but a return to first principles is now in order. Clearly development alone does
not hold all the answers. As I've written before, Myanmar's societal problems will require
decades of education and slow-changing shifts in cultural attitudes to resolve.

Any near-term solution is required to ensure peace and basic human security for
hundreds of thousands affected by the violence. Bangladesh now hosts the bulk of the
Rohingya population internationally, having taken in more than 600,000 refugees fleeing
atrocities in Rakhine State. Myanmar will need to take a more active approach toward
possible policy solutions - while domestic Buddhist nationalism and support for the
military's campaign against the Rohingya is widespread, the government (and military)
must realise that the crisis is now an international one. Regional instability has already
undermined international investment and provoked fierce criticism from countries such
as Malaysia and Indonesia. Myanmar must do something to ameliorate the situation if it
is to maintain regional support for its democratic and economic reforms.

Envisioning peace
What would a realistic solution look like? For starters, it will need to guarantee security to
vulnerable populations in Rakhine, and not just Rohingya. Rakhine Buddhists also need
to be assured they will be safe from attacks by Muslim groups (an underreported but
extremely potent concern inside Myanmar). That means allowing some independent
monitors in Rakhine who can also serve as a check on the military's heretofore brutal
counterinsurgency tactics. Second, a compromise deal will need to eventually allow the
reintegration of these two estranged communities, as separation will only make future
conflict more likely. Finally, a solution will need to guarantee the Myanmar government
that international humanitarians or foreign agents will not intervene in domestic affairs, a
perennial fear of Myanmar's military.

Given Myanmar's paranoia about foreign meddling, the two sides should continue talks
directly with the goal of a compromise agreement on how to manage almost one million
people displaced by violence since 2012. Bangladesh should also engage countries such
as Pakistan, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia, already home to many diaspora Rohingya.
Together they can seek out resettlement alternatives to Rohingya unwilling to return to
Myanmar due to fears surrounding their safety, or for other reasons, or those barred by
the Myanmar government's stringent repatriation process.
The international community, including China, can help to damp down ethnic tensions by
urging Myanmar and Bangladesh to continue talks, with the goal of an end to bloodshed
and the peaceful return of those displaced by violence. Global partners can also lend
more humanitarian assistance to refugees in Bangladesh and support reconstruction in
Rakhine State.

But first, restoring stability in Rakhine State will require stakeholders to think about the
big picture and engage in dialogue.

---I’ve summed up the 3-C and 3-W solution. The 3-C means “compromise”, “consultation”
and “coordination” while the 3-W refers to “will”, “wisdom” and “working mechanism”. The
solution involves three steps. It starts with the will from the countries concerned to make
a compromise so that they can sit together for talks. Then, it needs wisdom from the
relevant parties during their consultation for a solution to the issues at hand. And finally,
it needs a working mechanism to coordinate efforts from all sides to end the crisis.

Now that both Bangladesh and Myanmar have expressed their will to work together for
the early settlement of the Rohingya refugee problem resulted from fightings in the
Rakhine State, it is high time for the government agencies concerned to resort wisdom
during their consultations to tackle the thorny issues such as identifying the refugees and
arranging their resettlement. At the same time, a working mechanism must be set up to
coordinate implementation of the agreement reached by the two governments.

--Bangladesh, simply put, can’t indefinitely handle the humanitarian disaster that has
arrived on its shores. One of the most densely populated countries in the world,
Bangladesh is home to more than 160 million people tightly packed into a place about the
size of Iowa. With approximately $1,500 GDP per capita, this small, poor country is also
highly susceptible to climate change. Some of the worst flooding in decades just hit
Bangladesh, where natural disasters are common and southern shorelines are eroding.

For now, the Bangladesh government and political elites are welcoming the Rohingya
refugees. But half a million displaced people quickly become an enormous burden for a
poor nation. Local villagers and small businesses in Cox’s Bazaar, Teknaf and
neighboring areas have pooled resources, opened their homes and even helped bury the
dead.

Conclusion
In summary Bangladesh faces serious challenges in managing the influx of Rohingya. Contrary
to most opinion our view is the impact is limited on both politics and economics. The political
impact will be modest and largely improve the reputation of the AL. The economic impact will be
mildly expansionary. There will be a large impact locally on Cox’s Bazaar for the next few years.
There are security concerns but the security forces will contain this. Of course all will not go
well. There will be serious epidemics, much human suffering, and severe psychological damage
to the Rohingya children. But the Bangladesh nation will survive this challenge with honor.