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M. Drew LaMar

September 05, 2016

support, not illumination.”

- Andrew Lang

1 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

Class announcements

Answer:

Blog #1

P = 2 × (0.02) = 0.04

Blog Prompt: Write about an area of biology that you are

particularly interested in learning about through a

quantitative lens.

Original post due date: Wednesday, September 7, 11:59

pm

Comment due date: Friday, September 9, 11:59 pm

Reading assignment for Wednesday (posted on BB):

OpenIntro Stats, Chapter 7: Introduction to Linear

Regression

2 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

Central Limit Theorem (informal)

observations and the data are not strongly skewed, then

the sampling distribution for the mean is well

approximated by a normal model.

http://www.zoology.ubc.ca/~whitlock/kingfisher/CLT.htm

3 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

Hypothesis testing (general)

would expect to see if a specific null hypothesis were true.

If the data are too unusual, compared to what we would

expect to see if the null hypothesis were true, then the

null hypothesis is rejected.

a population parameter made for the purpose of

argument.

feasible values for the population parameter besides the

value stated in the null hypothesis.

4 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

Hypothesis testing

Can parents distinguish their own children by smell alone? To

investigate, Porter and Moore (1981) gave new T-shirts to

children of nine mothers. Each child wore his or her shirt to bed

for three consecutive nights. During the day, from waking until

bedtime, the shirts were kept in individually sealed plastic bags.

No scented soaps or perfumes were used during the study. Each

mother was then given the shirt of her child and that of another,

randomly chosen child and asked to identify her own by smell.

hypothesis?

5 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

Hypothesis testing

Can parents distinguish their own children by smell alone? To investigate,

Porter and Moore (1981) gave new T-shirts to children of nine mothers. Each

child wore his or her shirt to bed for three consecutive nights. During the

day, from waking until bedtime, the shirts were kept in individually sealed

plastic bags. No scented soaps or perfumes were used during the study. Each

mother was then given the shirt of her child and that of another, randomly

chosen child and asked to identify her own by smell.

hypothesis?

H0 : p = 0.5

HA : p ≠ 0.5

6 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

Hypothesis testing (how it's done)

the data that is used to evaluate how compatible the data

are with the result expected under the null hypothesis.

distribution of outcomes for a test statistic under the

assumption that the null hypothesis is true.

data (or data showing as great or greater difference from

the null hypothesis) if the null hypothesis were true.

7 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

Hypothesis testing (how it's done)

State the hypotheses.

Compute the test statistic.

Determine the P-value.

Draw the appropriate conclusions.

8 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

Hypothesis testing

Can parents distinguish their own children by smell alone? To investigate,

Porter and Moore (1981) gave new T-shirts to children of nine mothers. Each

child wore his or her shirt to bed for three consecutive nights. During the

day, from waking until bedtime, the shirts were kept in individually sealed

plastic bags. No scented soaps or perfumes were used during the study. Each

mother was then given the shirt of her child and that of another, randomly

chosen child and asked to identify her own by smell. Eight of nine mothers

identified their children correctly.

identifications.

9 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

Hypothesis testing

So, P = 0.04. Is that good?

https://youtu.be/7jSE3JANx14?t=4m29s

12 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

Hypothesis testing

So, P = 0.04. Is that good?

as a criterion for rejecting the null hypothesis. If the

P-value is less than or equal to α, then the null hypothesis

is rejected. If the P-value is greater than α, then the null

hypothesis is not rejected

when P-value < α .

significant when P-value ≥ α .

13 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

Hypothesis testing

Can parents distinguish their own children by smell alone? To investigate,

Porter and Moore (1981) gave new T-shirts to children of nine mothers. Each

child wore his or her shirt to bed for three consecutive nights. During the

day, from waking until bedtime, the shirts were kept in individually sealed

plastic bags. No scented soaps or perfumes were used during the study. Each

mother was then given the shirt of her child and that of another, randomly

chosen child and asked to identify her own by smell. Eight of nine mothers

identified their children correctly.

0.04, what is the appropriate conclusion?

consistently identify own children correctly by smell.

14 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

LOTS of confusion about P-values

doesn’t measure that. It can’t tell you the magnitude of an

effect, the strength of the evidence or the probability that

the finding was the result of chance.”

Christie Aschwanden

http://fivethirtyeight.com/pvalue

discriminate between truth and falsehood borders on

magical thinking.“

Cohen

15 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

LOTS of confusion about P-values

Goodman

[http://dx.doi.org/10.1053/j.seminhematol.2008.04.003]

16 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

Recommended practice

Measure and report precision and effect size separately (the

P-value is a summary measure that mixes them):

Present the magnitude of effect through the use of measures

such as rates, risk differences, and odds ratios.

Report precision with standard errors or confidence

intervals.

17 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

Caveats

Statistical significance is NOT the same as biological

importance.

Effect sizes are important. Large sample sizes can lead to

statistically significant results, even though the effect size is

small!

18 of 18 9/5/16, 2:53 PM

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