Population forecasting

Points to be covered for Treatment plant

• Area of the treatment plant

– Topography
– Soil type
• Design Period
– Treatment plants -30 years
– Dams -50 years
– Pumping Station -30 years
– Pumps -15 years
– Distribution System -30years

• Population to be served
• Per Capita Water Demand
• Other Water needs
• WW Collection and Treatment
Population forecasting
 Arithmetic increase method

 Geometrical Increase method

 Incremental Increase method

 Graphical method

 Decreasing Rate of growth method

 Master plan method

 Logistic curve method

 Apportionment method
Arithmetic increase method

• Assumption- Population increase is at constant rate

• Generally applicable to large and old cities
• Gives a low value and is suitable for well-settled and
established communities

• Pn= P + n . AI
 Pn= population after ‘n’ decades

 P = Population at present

 n = No. of decades

 AI= Avg. increase per decade

Arithmetic Increase method
Increase in
Year Population population
1951 91,054
1961 136,591
1971 261,615
1981 474,170
1991 795,833
2001 1,261,517
Arithmetic Increase method
Increase in
Year Population population
1951 91,054
1961 136,591 45,537
1971 261,615 125,024
1981 474,170 212,555
1991 795,833 321,663
2001 1,261,517 465,684
Avg. increase per decade 234,093

Population in 2031
= Population in 2001 + Increase per decade x n
=1262517+ 234093 x 3
=1963795
Geometrical Increase method

• Gives very high value

• Mostly applicable for fast growing towns and
cities having vast scope for expansion

• % increase is assumed to be growth rate (r)

and avg. of % increase is used to find future
increment in population

• Pn= P . (1+rg)n
 rg= (r1 . r2. r3. ……. rn)(1/n)
Geometric Increase method

Increase in % increase in
Year Population population population
1951 91,054
1961 136,591 45,537
1971 261,615 125,024
1981 474,170 212,555
1991 795,833 321,663
2001 1,261,517 465,684
Geometric Increase method

Increase in % increase in
Year Population population population
1951 91,054
1961 136,591 45,537 50.01
1971 261,615 125,024 91.53
1981 474,170 212,555 81.25
1991 795,833 321,663 67.84
2001 1,261,517 465,684 58.52

Rate of growth, rg= (r1 . r2. r3. ……. rn)^(1/n)=68.21

Population in 2031

= Population in 2001 x (1+ rg) ^ n

=6004087
Incremental Increase method

• Larger values obtained than AI method

• Applicable to cities where there is a limitation of

growth and no major planned development

• Pn= P + n X +n(n+1)Y/2
where,

 X= Avg. increase per decade

 Y= Avg. of increment in AI
Incremental Increase method

Increase in Incremental
Year Population population Increase
1951 91,054
1961 136,591 45,537
1971 261,615 125,024
1981 474,170 212,555
1991 795,833 321,663
2001 1,261,517 465,684
Incremental Increase method

Increase in Incremental
Year Population population Increase
1951 91,054
1961 136,591 45,537
1971 261,615 125,024 79,487
1981 474,170 212,555 87,531
1991 795,833 321,663 109,108
2001 1,261,517 465,684 144,021
Average X= 234093 Y= 105037

Population in 2031

=Population in 2001 +n x X + n(n +1) x Y/2

=2594018
Graphical method
• Based on single city
 Population curve of a city is used and is smoothly extended for

getting future value

 Method of least squares-for line of best fit

• Based on cities with similar growth pattern

(comparative graphical method)

 City in question is compared with other cities which have already

undergone similar phase of development which the city in question

is likely to undergo
Population forecasting

• Decreasing rate of growth method

 Applicable where the rate of percentage growth of population

shows a downward trend

• Master plan method

 Master plans are prepared for development of the cities for 25-30

yrs.

 Population densities for various zones of the towns to be

developed are fixed

 Population forecasting is done based on population densities

Decreasing Rate of Growth method

Decrease
Increase in % increase in in %
Year Pop. population population increase
1951 91,054
1961 136,591 45,537 50.01
1971 261,615 125,024 91.53
1981 474,170 212,555 81.25
1991 795,833 321,663 67.84
2001 1,261,517 465,684 58.52
Average
Decreasing Rate of Growth method

Decrease
Increase in % increase in in %
Year Pop. population population increase
1951 91,054
1961 136,591 45,537 50.01
1971 261,615 125,024 91.53 -41.52
1981 474,170 212,555 81.25 10.28
1991 795,833 321,663 67.84 13.41
2001 1,261,517 465,684 58.52 9.32
Average -2.13

Population in 2031= Population in 2001 x (1+ (% increase in population

2001 - average of decrease in % increase) x n)

=3556521
Logistic curve method
• Population of the city is plotted w.r.t time: S-
shaped curve is obtained
• Shows complete trend of growth of city from
beginning to saturation limit of population

Saturation Value, Ps N

M
dP/dt=r
L

K
) P( noi t al upo P

J
Time, t
Logistic curve method

• S-Shaped curve - JKLMN=> Logistic curve

• J K=> Early growth of city
 ‘r’ is proportional to ‘P’

• K M=> ‘r’ is constant

• L => Point of inflextion
• M N => decreasing rate
 ‘r’ is proportional to (Ps-P)
– ‘P’ is the population of the town at point ‘t’ from the
origin ‘J’ and ‘Ps’ is the saturation value of the
population
Logistic curve method

• Mathematical solution by Verhulst, P.F.

P − P  P − P0 
log e  s  − log e  s  = − k Ps t
 P   P0 

• P0= population of the town at point ‘J’

• Ps=saturation population
• P= population at time ‘t’ from origin ‘J’
• K= const.,
 Solving for ‘P’
Ps
P=
1 + m log e−1 ( − k Ps t )
Apportionment method
• Also known as ratio method
• Census population record is expressed as % of the population of
whole country

• Ratio of town under consideration to the national population is

calculated for last 4-5 decades

• Graph plotted between these ratios and time

• Extension of this graph- ratio corresponding to the future yrs.
• Ratio so obtained is multiplied by expected national population at
the end of design period

• Suitable for towns and cities with growth similar to national growth
Thank You…..