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Inductive Reasoning
INDUCTIVE ARGUMENTS
◃ Arguments come in two different kinds: deductive and inductive.
A deductive argument is one in which the scope is non-
ampliative—that is, the scope of the conclusion is no broader
than the scope of the premises.
◃ The best we get from induction is likely truth. If you have a good
inductive argument, the conclusion is probably true. While
“probably true” is less desirable than “definitely true,” “probably
true” is sufficient for rational belief. We should believe that which
is probably true.
◃ “I have seen some number n different Ps, and every one of them
has had the property A; therefore, I believe that the next P I see
will also have the property A.”
◃ We make these kinds of inferences all the time. “No, I don’t want
to go see that scary movie, because it’ll give me nightmares like
all the other ones.”
◃ When we apply what we’ve learned from all other instances in the
past to one in the present or future, inductive analogy is the form
of the argument we are using.
◃ But it is not good reason to think he will make three out of four.
There is a lot of mathematical machinery in the study of statistics
that tells you exactly how big a sample you need and what
percentage needs to have the property in order to have a 90
percent, 95 percent, or 99 percent degree of confidence that your
statistic can be accurately generalized to the entire population.
◃ When you have a statistic you want to generalize, you are almost
always going to have to soften your generalized conclusion a bit.
INDUCTIVE FALLACIES
◃ One of the fallacies associated with inductive reasoning is
exaggerated accuracy. There are several more we need to be
aware of. One involves premises that appear in the first two
inductive argument forms and implicitly in the third.
◃ The key to avoiding this error is in the selection procedure for the
sample we use to collect our observation. The sample is the set
of n individuals mentioned in the premises. How do we go about
getting our data from which to make the inductive inference?
READINGS
QUESTIONS
1.
If inductive arguments do not give us conclusions with absolute
certainty, why should we believe the conclusion of a sound inductive
argument? What inductive arguments do you accept in day-to-day life?
2.
Identify the fallacies in the following passages from the following
list: cherry-picking, insufficient sample, unrepresentative data,
gambler’s fallacy.