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Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 9
Figure 2
The machine learning analytics modeled in owners can optimize purchasing, spare parts
Reinforcement Learning location, crew schedules, down times, and other
Figure 2 predicts the probability of asset
Reinforcement learning involves learning what to do — how to map maintenance activities. The result is extended
situations to actions — to maximize a numerical reward signal. The failure at multiple times in the future without
three most important distinguishing features of reinforcement asset life, increased return on invested capital,
learning are: 1) being closed-loop in an essential way; 2) not hav- loss of confidence. As shown in Figure 3, it
ing direct instructions of what actions to take; and 3) playing out and lower maintenance and operating costs.
the consequences of actions, including reward signals, over ex- “sees over the hill” and predicts the
tended time periods.
Source: Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction (Second Edition, in progress, probability of surviving event A but not event
2016), Rich Sutton and Andrew Barto, MIT Press.
B. Reinforcement learning algorithms then
© 2017 Space Time Insight, Inc. 7
Risk Tolerance and Optimizing the Prediction
The graph in Figure 4 shows actual failure thought of as a function of the cost to the against other costs such as the cost of capital
prediction curves for disk drives in a data center. business of the asset failing balanced used to deploy that asset.
The graph compares actual condition-based
predictive models from the manufacturers with
an average of the predictions from our machine
learning model (the blue line). This graph shows
averages for a set of assets, to create an apples-
to-apples comparison with these other models.
In practice, our machine learning model predicts
the probability of failure for each asset
individually.
In an operating environment, risk tolerance is an
important constraint. Any predictive
maintenance plan should minimize risk: it could
simply predict that every asset will fail one week
after it is put into service, and if replaced
accordingly, you’ll never have a part failure.
However, that’s no way to run a business since
asset utilization will be very low. You need a
model with a better fit, one that allows you to Figure 4
operate the asset as long as possible before the This graph may be recognizable as an illustration of Gini coefficients. Gini coefficients are a measure of statistical dispersion, often used to describe
income inequality in a population. They can, however, be used to represent continuous probability distribution and effectively illustrate how well the
risk of failure is actually too high. Risk might be various predictive models of asset failure balance the cost of failure against the cost of prematurely replacing the asset.
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