You are on page 1of 6

EQUITY RESEARCH - CHILE

WEEKLY REPORT
February 12th, 2018

CHILEAN EQUITY DASHBOARD


IPSA fell 4.8% last week, while the ETF quotas were destructed by 7.1%

CONTACT The IPSA Index posted a 4.8% WoW decrease at 5,549pts. The increases of the week were
Equity Research Team only CAP (+1.7%), SQM-B (+0.6%), and SK (+0.3%). Meanwhile, the largest decreases were
estudiosbice@bice.cl Forus (-9.1%), LTM (-9.0%), and Vapores (-8.7%).
+(562) 2692 3481
Last week, the short-selling stock position showed a 3.4% WoW decrease to CL$
74,590Mn. The highest increases were led by Cencosud (CL$ 1,365Mn), Itaucorp (CL$
648Mn) and Enel Gx (CL$531Mn). On the other hand, the most relevant drops were CMPC
(CL$ 1,451Mn), followed by Copec (CL$ 1,093Mn) and Falabella (CL$ 987Mn). At the end of
last week, the highest short-selling stock positions measured by trading days were Chile,
Concha y Toro, and Nueva Polar.

The margin trading stock position showed a 1.4% WoW increase to CL$ 305,603Mn. We
highlight relevant increases in Vapores (CL$ 4,622Mn), CAP (CL$ 2,749Mn), and Sonda (CL$
2,100Mn). On the other hand, the largest drops were Oro Blanco (CL$ 1,708Mn), Parauco
(CL$ 1.687), and Itaucorp (CL$ 1,366Mn). At the end of last week, the highest margin trad-
ing stock positions were SQM-B, Vapores, and Itaucorp.

Only La Polar with insider trading last week. We highlight (i) net investment in La Polar
(CL$ 2,452Mn) carried out by “Rentas ST Ltda.”, and “Rentas VC y CIA.” (Controlling Share-
holder).

Regarding ETF, we observed 7.1% destruction in ECH quotas last week (% of AUM), while
accruing 11.5% destruction YTD, and 4.1% destruction LTM.

SHORT SELLING & MARGING TRADING (CL$ Mn)


400,000 350,000

350,000 300,000
300,000
250,000
250,000
200,000
200,000
150,000
150,000
100,000
100,000

50,000 50,000

0 0
Jan/13

Jan/15

Jan/17
Jan/11

Oct/14

Oct/16
May/15

May/17
Nov/11

Nov/13

Dec/15

Dec/17
Jul/16
Apr/11

Jun/12

Apr/13

Jun/14
Sep/12
Aug/11

Aug/13

Aug/15

Aug/17
Mar/12

Mar/14

Mar/16

Margin Trading Short-selling

Source: Santiago Stock Exchange, BICE Inversiones


1
EQUITY RESEARCH - CHILE
WEEKLY REPORT
February 12th, 2018

SHORT SELLING STOCK POSITIONS (CL$ Mn)


The largest short-selling stock Stock 12/Jan/18 19/Jan/18 26/Jan/18 2/Feb/18 9/Feb/18 Trading days

position measured by trading CHILE 15,336 15,570 16,375 15,725 15,525 2.8
CONCHATORO 1,219 1,062 1,347 1,831 1,761 2.1
days were Chile, Concha y Toro
NUEVAPOLAR 256 239 408 1,503 1,494 2.0
and Nueva Polar. ENTEL 2,211 2,202 2,479 2,706 2,665 1.7
ITAUCORP 1,679 1,884 2,547 3,933 4,430 1.6
CAP 6,473 6,385 5,093 5,766 5,775 1.6
COPEC 7,125 6,182 6,513 10,742 9,197 1.5
CENCOSUD 7,768 7,883 9,751 10,407 11,479 1.3
PARAUCO 1,572 2,357 2,572 2,304 2,301 1.1
IAM 2,004 2,032 1,550 1,572 1,765 1.0
BCI 2,271 1,996 2,242 3,058 3,428 0.8
RIPLEY 16 16 817 1,404 1,332 0.7
ECL 584 697 724 617 672 0.6
AESGENER 204 145 258 367 362 0.6
FALABELLA 7,551 5,592 5,759 6,916 5,701 0.5
BSANTANDER 1,636 2,621 2,493 1,565 1,456 0.3
CMPC 3 23 0 2,784 1,190 0.2
ENELGXCH 0 68 41 221 844 0.2
SONDA 1,044 123 1 211 358 0.2
MULTIFOODS 0 0 0 16 50 0.2
SM-CHILE B 311 343 314 337 360 0.2
FORUS 59 90 114 142 138 0.2
CCU 329 304 429 431 413 0.2
BESALCO 457 453 304 258 174 0.1
COLBUN 90 102 107 211 154 0.1
TOTAL 61,408 59,117 63,865 77,168 74,549 1.5
Source: Santiago Stock Exchange, BICE Inversiones

MARGING TRADING STOCK POSITION (CL$ Mn)


The highest margin trading stock Stock 5/Jan/18 12/Jan/18 19/Jan/18 26/Jan/18 2/Feb/18 9/Feb/18
positions were SQM-B, Vapores, SQM-B 28,464 27,318 29,539 34,971 37,358 37,264
VAPORES 17,682 16,694 21,952 23,038 27,169 31,792
and Itaucorp.
ITAUCORP 30,419 30,819 28,560 26,148 23,041 21,675
SM-CHILE B 21,312 20,953 21,133 21,197 21,444 21,620
CAP 9,759 11,078 11,522 11,599 11,815 14,609
PARAUCO 33,489 31,997 16,173 16,224 16,255 14,568
CENCOSUD 16,456 15,622 14,725 17,886 13,576 13,192
SMSAAM 8,804 8,805 8,780 8,777 12,000 12,025
SECURITY 11,128 11,175 11,535 11,543 11,454 11,459
ORO BLANCO 12,471 12,911 13,132 12,936 11,632 9,924
CHILE 8,035 8,139 8,698 8,496 8,487 8,464
AGUAS-A 7,510 7,153 7,196 6,983 6,963 7,067
ENELAM 5,808 6,748 6,791 8,308 7,550 6,909
COLBUN 6,924 6,885 6,885 6,859 6,851 6,873
SONDA 5,662 5,248 6,910 7,023 4,755 6,854
ANDINA-B 3,163 3,314 5,844 6,385 5,071 5,071
ECL 7,758 6,790 12,954 17,425 4,959 4,664
BCI 2,983 2,684 2,705 3,543 4,430 4,545
LTM 7,351 7,952 6,133 4,269 4,208 4,104
SK 4,017 4,038 4,047 4,048 4,047 4,061
CMPC 3,141 5,659 8,395 8,993 3,985 3,932
NUEVAPOLAR 2,947 3,322 3,401 3,078 3,478 3,427
LAS CONDES 2,964 2,970 2,970 2,961 3,032 3,034
COPEC 3,559 3,838 3,987 3,558 3,390 2,807
ENELCHILE 1,237 1,085 3,069 3,070 2,814 2,805
Total 317,297 314,676 317,086 335,189 301,246 305,603
Source: Santiago Stock Exchange, BICE Inversiones
2
EQUITY RESEARCH - CHILE
WEEKLY REPORT
February 12th, 2018

INSIDER TRADING (CL$ Mn)


Only relevant insider trading in La COMPANY 1W 2W

Polar. EMPRESAS LA POLAR S.A. 2,452 2,452


FORESTAL CONSTRUCTORA Y COMERCIAL DEL PACIFICO SUR S.A. 11 11
PUERTO VENTANAS S.A. 7 7
MONEDA S.A. ADMINISTRADORA GENERAL DE FONDOS 0 210
WATTS S.A. 0 10
ADMINISTRADORA DE FONDOS DE PENSIONES HABITAT S.A. 0 0
VIÑA CONCHA Y TORO S.A. 0 -100
EMPRESA NACIONAL DE TELECOMUNICACIONES S.A. 0 -102
ENERGIA LATINA S.A. 0 -149
SALFACORP S.A. 0 -550
ENJOY S.A. -130 -244
COMPANY 1M 2M
BANMEDICA S.A. 1,617,491 1,617,491
VIÑA SAN PEDRO TARAPACA S.A. 49,223 88,693
EMPRESAS LA POLAR S.A. 2,452 2,452
FORESTAL CONSTRUCTORA Y COMERCIAL DEL PACIFICO SUR S.A. 334 456
MONEDA S.A. ADMINISTRADORA GENERAL DE FONDOS 205 206
MOLIBDENOS Y METALES S. A. 118 219
SOCOVESA S.A. -110 -150
ENJOY S.A. -244 1,415
PAZ CORP S.A. -454 -2,514
SALFACORP S.A. -1,188 -4,604
ENERGIA LATINA S.A. -2,779 -2,779
Source: SVS, BICE Inversiones

CREATION / DESTRUCTION ETF QUOTES (% of AUM)


We observed a 7.1% destruction AUM 5d 1m 3m 6m YTD 1Y

in ECH quotas last week. Chile 496 -7.1% -11.6% -17.3% -5.4% -11.5% -4.1%
Brasil 8,022 0.4% 0.4% 10.3% 17.7% 0.4% 35.8%
Colombia 101 0.0% 9.1% 3.8% 7.6% 5.7% -2.8%
México 967 -7.9% 0.6% -10.2% -15.9% -10.5% -73.2%
Perú 180 0.0% 0.0% -20.4% 0.1% 2.2% -43.9%
World 8,389 1.8% -0.3% 6.6% 7.6% -0.3% 16.0%
EM 40,300 -1.4% 3.4% 8.1% 10.5% 5.8% 19.5%
Latam 1,561 0.0% 4.1% -2.1% 24.3% 3.0% 28.4%
USA 253,424 -7.7% -2.3% 3.6% 1.2% -1.9% 2.5%
Europe 2,804 0.0% -4.6% -10.2% -10.1% -6.4% 6.7%
Asia (ex Japan) 4,692 -3.4% -1.0% 7.1% 9.6% 0.5% 37.1%
Japan 21,062 1.2% 5.8% 16.3% 22.6% 12.3% 15.3%
China 4,136 2.9% 7.1% 16.0% 16.7% 7.2% 15.6%
Money Market 9,074 4.4% 13.2% 32.8% 44.7% 12.8% 78.8%
Develop Gov. 7,988 -2.1% -2.3% 9.5% 9.6% 5.6% 13.8%
Inv. Grade 34,592 -3.8% -7.0% -9.8% -5.9% -8.8% 14.4%
High Yield 15,370 6.7% -8.1% -14.7% -14.1% -10.9% -10.8%
EM Corp Debt 4,997 3.0% 2.3% 4.6% 9.2% 2.4% 26.5%
Inf. Linked 225 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% -13.5% 7.0% -9.6%
Source: Bloomberg, BICE Inversiones

3
EQUITY RESEARCH - CHILE
WEEKLY REPORT
February 12th, 2018

CHILEAN EQUITY VALUATION - BICE ESTIMATES


Curre Target Mkt. ADTV EV/EBITDA P/E P/BV
Rec. % IPSA
Price Price Cap (US$ Mn) LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E
Beverages 12,353 5.0% 14.2 9.6x 11.0x 10.6x 21.2x 24.2x 17.3x 2.7x 2.8x 2.5x
Andina 2,928 3,301 HOLD 4,322 1.3% 7.7 10.9x 10.0x 9.9x 25.2x 23.9x 22.6x 3.4x 3.3x 3.2x
CCU 8,304 10,322 BUY 5,068 2.2% 4.1 10.6x 11.2x 10.7x 23.7x 24.7x 11.3x 2.8x 3.1x 2.5x
Concha y Toro 1,276 1,271 HOLD 1,574 1.1% 1.2 14.6x 15.1x 13.9x 21.7x 23.6x 21.5x 1.8x 1.8x 1.8x
Embonor-B 1,780 1,845 HOLD 1,389 0.4% 1.1 8.8x 10.3x 10.2x 25.8x 24.1x 23.1x 2.6x 2.4x 2.3x
Electric Ut. 30,789 14.8% 25.1 6.0x 6.7x 6.8x 9.7x 15.7x 14.4x 1.8x 1.8x 1.7x
Enel Americas 132 156 BUY 12,571 6.7% 10.6 6.8x 5.0x 6.0x 29.8x 20.0x 15.2x 1.9x 2.0x 1.8x
Enel Chile 72 80 HOLD 5,849 2.6% 6.0 7.3x 6.3x 6.5x 11.2x 11.5x 11.7x 1.2x 1.2x 1.1x
Enel Gx 552 568 HOLD 7,485 3.3% 5.6 10.6x 10.4x 8.3x 13.1x 13.4x 14.7x 2.4x 2.4x 2.3x
Engie Energía (1) 1,350 1,541 BUY 2,348 1.2% 1.9 11.4x 12.3x 9.8x 23.3x 26.0x 15.9x 1.2x 1.1x 1.2x
AESGener (1) 183 214 HOLD 2,537 0.9% 1.1 8.4x 7.9x 7.6x 13.5x 14.5x 13.4x 1.0x 1.0x 1.1x
Industrial 2,220 0.6% 0.5 12.5x 12.2x 11.6x 29.4x 25.9x 23.5x 1.7x 2.4x 2.4x
SK 1,250 1,370 HOLD 2,220 0.6% 0.5 12.5x 12.2x 11.6x 29.4x 25.9x 23.5x 1.7x 2.4x 2.4x
Commodities 16,349 6.3% 23.9 9.7x 11.2x 12.7x 24.4x 27.6x 26.4x 5.1x 4.9x 4.9x
CAP (1) 8,094 9,000 BUY 1,998 1.5% 5.5 7.2x 5.0x 6.8x 15x 15x 16.5x 1.0x 0.9x 1.0x
SQM (1) 32,496 42,250 BUY 14,351 4.8% 18.4 17.3x 15.5x 15.8x 35.5x 31.1x 29.5x 6.5x 6.2x 6.1x
Retail 38,618 15.1% 40.0 16.5x 17.4x 15.9x 17.1x 24.1x 20.6x 2.3x 2.8x 2.6x
Cencosud 1,810 2,222 BUY 8,559 4.5% 14.4 8.8x 12.5x 11.8x 18.7x 17.7x 14.5x 1.3x 1.3x 1.3x
Falabella 6,030 6,799 HOLD 24,247 6.8% 18.1 15.2x 19.9x 17.9x 29.1x 28.7x 26.1x 3.3x 4.1x 3.8x
Parauco 1,840 2,168 HOLD 2,729 2.2% 3.4 19.5x 19.9x 19.7x 18.5x 22.2x 17.3x 2.1x 2.5x 2.3x
Ripley 635 704 HOLD 2,029 1.1% 3.0 21.5x 19.0x 16.6x 22.1x 18.7x 18.2x 1.4x 1.3x 1.3x
Forus 2,470 3,027 HOLD 1,055 0.4% 1.2 13.4x 13.8x 11.9x 22.8x 24.3x 21.2x 3.1x 3.2x 2.9x
Tricot 920 1,023 BUY 652 0.0% 0.5 - 11.3x 9.6x - 22.0x 18.0x 3.1x 3.1x 2.7x
Water Ut. 5,629 2.9% 6.2 10.8x 11.5x 11.8x 15.6x 16.9x 16.3x 3.7x 4.1x 4.2x
Aguas-A 388 443 HOLD 3,801 2.1% 3.2 10.8x 11.5x 11.8x 15.6x 16.9x 16.3x 3.7x 4.1x 4.2x
IAM 1,107 1,220 HOLD 1,828 0.9% 3.0
Insurance & Pension 3,573 0.7% 1.7 19.6x 24.5x 22.2x 4.3x 9.4x 11.7x 1.6x 1.9x 1.9x
ILC 11,959 12,107 SELL 1,975 0.7% 1.5 - - - 9.2x 9.3x 11.7x 1.6x 1.9x 1.9x
Habitat 967 1,063 BUY 1,598 0.0% 0.1 7.1x 8.1x 7.7x 9.7x 9.7x 9.3x 2.9x 2.9x 2.8x
Telecom & IT 1,788 1.2% 2.6 11.1x 12.4x 9.8x 38.9x 26.2x 24.8x 2.2x 2.1x 2.0x
Sonda 1,243 1,403 HOLD 1,788 1.2% 2.6 9.0x 12.4x 9.8x 16.7x 26.2x 24.8x 2.2x 2.1x 2.0x
Transport 10,237 7.9% 9.8 10.1x 9.6x 8.8x 58.8x 44.5x 22.1x 2.1x 2.2x 2.0x
LATAM (1) 9,184 9,900 BUY 9,199 7.3% 9.2 11.6x 9.7x 8.6x 62.2x 45.7x 21.5x 2.2x 2.2x 2.1x
SMSAAM 65 71 HOLD 1,037 0.6% 0.6 7.5x 9.3x 12.1x 16.4x 35.9x 29.4x 1.4x 1.7x 1.7x
Banks 51,393 20.8% 31.0 - - - 15.7x 19.2x 15.0x 2.8x 2.4x 2.2x
Chile 101 98.8 SELL 16,212 5.8% 8.6 - - - 17.4x 17.7x 16.7x 3.2x 3.3x 3.1x
SM Chile-B 323 327 HOLD 6,392 2.7% 2.5 - - - - - - 3.3x - -
BSantander 47.5 50.6 HOLD 14,792 5.4% 8.9 - - - 15.9x 16.2x 14.7x 2.9x 3.0x 2.8x
BCI 44,027 48,274 BUY 9,087 4.1% 6.6 - - - 14.8x 15.4x 14.4x 2.0x 2.0x 1.8x
Itaucorp 5.8 6.0 HOLD 4,910 2.7% 4.3 - - - - 30.5x 17.6x 0.9x 1.0x 0.9x
Grupo Security 321.0 312 BUY 1,953 1.9% 1.1 - - - 15.8x 17.0x 14.4x 1.7x 1.6x 1.5x
BICE Sam ple 5,549 6,233 172,949 75.3% 154.9 10.4x 11.2x 10.8x 15.8x 21.4x 18.4x 2.6x 2.6x 2.5x
Source: Santiago Stock Exchange, BICE Inversiones

4
RESEARCH TEAM
Agustín Alvarez M.
Head of Research
agustin.alvarez@bice.cl
+(562) 2692 2576

EQUITY RESEARCH ECONOMICS & FIXED INCOME STRATEGY


Aldo Morales E. Sebastián Senzacqua B. Felipe Muñoz F.
Head of Equity Research Chief Economist Strategy Analyst
aldo.morales@bice.cl sebastian.senzacqua@bice.cl felipe.muñoz@bice.cl
+(562) 2692 3481 +(562) 2692 7954 +(562) 2692 7982
Sebastián Carvallo I. Antonio Acha R.
Equity Research Analyst Economist
sebastian.carvallo@bice.cl antonio.acha@bice.cl
+(562) 2692 1836 +(562) 2692 2976
Paulina Vargas J.
Equity Research Analyst
paulina.vargas@bice.cl
+(562) 2692 3486
Jonathan Fuchs N.
Equity Research Analyst
jonathan.fuchs@bice.cl
+(562) 2692 2527

SALES & TRADING

EQUITIES LOCAL FIXED INCOME INTERNATIONAL FIXED INCOME


Felipe Figueroa E. Andrés de la Cerda G. Carlos Schneider
Equity Sales & Trading Head Trader Fixed Income and FX Head Trader Int. Fixed Income
ffigueroa@bice.cl adelacer@bice.cl carlos.schneider@bice.cl
+(562) 2692 2810 +(562) 2692 2576 +(562) 2520 7915
Sebastián Torrealba D. Javiera Escudero M. José Miguel Alcalde R.
Equity Sales & Trading Fixed Income Trader Fixed Income Trader
sebastian.torrealba@bice.cl javiera.escudero@bice.cl jose.alcalde@bice.cl
+(562) 2692 2811 +(562) 2692 2946 +(562) 2520 7905
Claudio Zelada A. Paulina González T.
Equity Sales Fixed Income Trader
claudio.zelada@bice.cl paulina.gonzalez@bice.cl
+(562) 2520 7949 +(562) 2692 2812
Sergio Lizama C.
Fixed Income Trader
slizama@bice.cl
+(562) 2520 7912

5
This report has been prepared solely for the purpose of providing information to customers of BICE Inversiones Cor-
redores de Bolsa S.A. This report is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell stocks, bonds or other instruments men-
tioned in it. This information and where it is based has been obtained from public information sources on our best
knowledge and that according to our belief seems reliable. However, this does not guarantee that they are accurate or
complete. The forecasts and estimates presented in this report have been prepared with the best information and tools
available, but this does not guarantee that they will be fulfilled. All opinions and expressions contained in this report may
be modified at any time without notice. BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. and any company or person related to
it and its controlling shareholders may at any time have short and long term investments in any of the instruments men-
tioned in this report or related with companies or markets mentioned and can buy or sell those same instruments.

BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. could eventually recommend purchases and / or sales of shares for trading
positions. Such actions could be incorporated into other recommended portfolios. The projections and estimates present-
ed in this report should not be the sole basis for the adoption of an appropriate investment decision and each investor
must make its own assessment based on their personal situation, investment strategy, risk tolerance, tax situation, etc.
The result of any financial transaction carried out with the support of this report is the sole responsibility of the person
who performs it. Foreign securities and issuers that can be referenced in this report, and are not currently registered in
the Securities Registry by the Chilean Superintendence of Securities and Insurance, are not applicable laws and regula-
tions governing domestic stock market, therefore is the sole responsibility of investors to get their own information re-
garding such securities and foreign issuers before making any investment decision. The frequency of the publication of
the reports, if any, is at the discretion of BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. It is not allowed to quote or reproduce
in whole or in part this report without the express permission of BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A.

At the date of publication of this report, none of the members of the Research Department holds, directly or indirectly,
investments in the issuer or issuers analyzed in it. At the date of publication of this report, none of the members of the
Research Department holds, directly or indirectly, links to the issuer analyzed in it. The members of the Research Depart-
ment expressly declare that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to specific recom-
mendations or views expressed in this report. BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. and members of the Research
Department expressly declare that there is no commercial relationship with the issuer analyzed in this report. BICE Inver-
siones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. and / or any company or person associated with it, may at any time have a position in
any of the financial instruments mentioned in these reports and may buy or sell those same instruments, in which case
they should be guided by the “Manual for share transactions and other securities by staff and BICECORP SA and its sub-
sidiaries” and is available in www.biceinversiones.cl.

You might also like