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Contents
Background of India’s Cement Industry
Current Trends and Performance
Valuation Multiples Analysis
Regulatory Framework
Industry’s Major Players
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1
Background of India’s Cement Industry
The indigenous Indian cement industry traces its
history back to 1914, at the time the market was
dominated by imports.
The cement industry has evolved in the form of clusters across the country due to the concentration of limestone
reserves in certain states.
The cyclical nature of the industry, nature of the commodity and transportation cost requires cement plant to be
located in the market it serves. Also, the availability of Limestone, key raw material plays a vital role in the location of
a company’s plant.
2
Current Trends and Performance
Million Tonne
reach almost 550 million tonnes by 2020, as per estimates by 400 330
the Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA). 300
200
100
As of 2011, there were 137 large and 365 mini cement plants in
India. 0
2013 2020E
Housing, 6
7%
450 398
400 359
During the Five Year plan (2007-12), cement industry 350 324
293
players invested INR 50,000 crore to add fresh 300
242
265
222 CAGR
capacities of 150 million tonnes. As per projections in 250
10.2%
the 12th Five Year Plan, the cement sector would need 200
150
to raise its capacities to 470 million tonnes by 2017 to
100
meet the rising requirement for the commodity. 50
0
The domestic consumption is expected to increase at a FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E
CAGR of 10.2 per cent during FY13-17 and reach 398
million tonnes
3
Major Growth Drivers
Highway • The Ministry of Road Transport plans to roll out projects worth USD 120
Development Funds billion by 2016
• The government has further enhanced the tax-free bond limit to USD 30
Infrastructure Sector billion in FY 2012-13. It has also established an infrastructure debt fund
worth USD 1.8 billion.
Rural Road • The government has allocated a fund of INR 24,000 crore for the
Development development of rural road projects in FY 2012-13.
4
Mergers and Acquisitions in Indian Cement Sector
The cement industry has been going through consolidation phase with large Indian cement players preying on smaller
ones and foreign cement majors acquiring controlling stake in Indian majors. According to data from VCCEdge, the
Indian cement industry has seen seven M&A deals worth a total US$3.3 billion since January 2013.
Economies of
scale.
Consolidation
in Cement
Industry
5
Industry Players Performance and Valuation Multiples
Margin Comparison
Margin Comparison - FY 2013 Vs FY 2012
35%
31%
30% 30%
30%
27%
26%26%
25% 24%24%
22%
21% 21% 21%
20% 19% 19%
18%
15%
14%
13% 13% 13%12%
10% 12%
11% 10%
9%
8%
5% 7%
6%
3%
0%
ACC Ltd Ambuja Cement India Cement J.K Cement Ramco Cements Shree Cement Ultratech Cement
EBITDA Margin 2013 EBITDA Margin 2012 PAT Margin 2013 PAT Margin 2012
Cement, being a bulk commodity, is freight intensive There has been a significant increase in the raw
and transporting it over long distances can prove material and fuel cost of India Cement & Ramco
uneconomical. Cement impacting its EBITDA margin negatively.
Prices of most of the input materials increased
substantially due to increase in basic prices and Cement industry is among the most capital intensive
transportation cost. industries in the world, the cost of a new cement
plant is usually equivalent to around 3 years of
Major cost that impact the margins are turnover. Thus, the gestation period for the industry
Energy cost is longer. Most of the companies are significantly
Freight and Handling expenses adding to their production capacity thereby, increase
Input material cost & packaging material cost. there is an increase in the Finance & Interest
expenses.
To reduce cost, most companies, study and try to
optimize the fuel mix for the plant so as to reduce The PAT margin of India Cement and Ramco Cement
the energy cost. have decreased due to the decrease in the EBITDA
Companies also try to reduce the transportation cost margin.
by setting up plant closer to the market they are
catering to. The PAT margin of Ambuja Cement & ACC Limited
has reduced on account of change in the method of
EBITDA margins of Ambuja Cement, Shree Cement depreciation from Straight Line method to Written
and Ultratech Cement have improved on account of Down Value method with a retrospective effect.
measures adopted by their Management for cost
reduction, decreasing fuel consumption and PAT margin of J. K Cement has improved due to
improving plant efficiency and productivity. While reduction in its finance cost.
the overall industry’s input cost increased by 15 -
20%, costs for these companies increased to a lower
extent than the industry.
6
Industry Players Performance and Valuation Multiples
EV/ Sales
Relationship between EBITDA Margins and EV/Sales Multiple –
FY 2013
3.00 x
Ambuja Cement
2.50 x
Ultratech Shree Cement
Cement
ACC Ltd
2.00 x
Ramco Cement
Multiples
1.50 x
India Cement
1.00 x
J.K Cement
0.50 x
0.00 x
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
EBIDTA Margin
The above chart represents the relationship between Market perception on EV / Sales multiple of ACC
EBITDA Margins and EV/Sales Multiple. It is clearly Limited & India Cements falls in the same quartile.
evident that EBITDA margin is a strong factor on how The EBIDTA margins of both the companies are in the
market prices the sales of each company. same range. However, ACC Ltd. being a larger
company in size with presence all over India and with
Amongst the Large Cap Shree Cements and amongst capacity expansion plans in the future, the multiple of
the Mid Cap Ramco Cements, are the leaders in terms ACC Ltd. is higher than India Cements.
of EBIDTA margins.
J.K. Cements has lowest EV / Sales multiple since it
Ambuja Cements & Ultratech Cements enjoy higher has the lowest operating efficiency amongst its peers.
EV/Sales Multiple compared to its peers in its space. This is affecting its overall valuation multiple in a
This clearly demonstrates that markets are pricing negative way.
volumes or sales based on their margins.
7
Industry Players Performance and Valuation Multiples
Earning Multiples
EV/EBITDA Multiple
PE Multiple
8.21 x Industry 15.63 x
Industry Average
6.75 x Average 11.41 x
7.60 x 12.63 x
Shree Cement Shree Cement
4.62 x 11.39 x
4.43 x 7.28 x
J.K Cement J.K Cement
2.89 x 4.64 x
6.24 x 14.91 x
India Cement India Cement
5.70 x 9.55 x
10.32 x
Ambuja Cement Ambuja 22.03 x
11.23 x
Cement 18.50 x
11.31 x
ACC Ltd 23.46 x
9.37 x ACC Ltd
16.23 x
The EV/EBITDA multiple of the cement industry has The prices of input materials, viz. iron ore, bauxite, fly
increased from FY 2012. The increase in the multiple ash, gypsum also rose by 20-50%.
has been mainly due to increase in the Enterprise Packing material cost was also up by 14%-20%.
Value because of the expansions plans and capital
expenditure. Freight and Handling Expenses: The freight cost rose
by 13%-15% from FY 2012. The increase is mainly on
The EBITDA margins of most cement companies have account of hike in railway freight by around 22%-25%.
remained almost constant despite the fact that Some of the companies are trying to reduce this
input cost of the industry has escalated. expenses by decreasing the lead distance by setting
up new plants closer to target market.
Energy Cost: Domestic coal prices rose by 8 -10%.
The availability of linkage coal indicates a downward The PAT margin of the industry has remained almost
trend every year. Some of the companies has constant as compared to the previous year due to
optimized the fuel mix in kilns and power plants so pricing pressure and tight operating margins.
as to maximize the use of low cost fuel like pet coke.
There by decreasing the reliability on costly fuels. However the PE Multiple of the industry is
Power from State Electricity Boards became costlier significantly higher than FY 12. A high PE ratio means
by around 15% over FY12. that investors are anticipating higher growth in the
future. The higher growth rate expected is because of
Input Material Cost: Prices of most of the input the significant number of infrastructure projects and
materials extended substantially due to increase in the capital expenditure undertaken by the industry to
basic prices and transportation cost. This led to an increase the production capacity to meet the
increase in the cost of raw material by around 15- forecasted demand.
25%.
Note: All Financial data for calculation of multiple has been taken from public sources, annual reports or Capital Line. 8
Regulatory Issues & Challenges
Excess cement capacity
Mammoth mismatch between cement demand and its
supply.
Cement highly
taxed/Tax
Incentives
Higher government projections for infrastructure
development in the country led the industry players to
Steep fall in Inadequate
allocate funds for capacity expansion. cement availability of
exports wagons
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Regulatory Issues & Challenges
Steep fall in cement exports
10
Industry Players Performance
Ultratech Cement Limited
13,798
15,000
The increase in overall domestic revenue was mainly due
10,000 to improved demand in the first half of the year in the
5,143 market. The sales volume remained as previous year but
4,565
5,000 2,850
1,361
2,397 2,688 increase in price in the early quarters of the year
resulted in the increase in revenue by 11%.
-
FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
The overall export volume fell by 28% but depreciation
Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit of the rupee helped in improving realization by 5%.
0%
Gross interest and finance charges were higher on
FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
account of increased borrowings for on-going capex for
capacity expansion. However, the net finance cost fell EBITDA Margin Net Profit Margin
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Industry Players Performance
Sales and Profitability Analysis Company strategy of adopting measures like multiband
strategy, expanding market base, faster delivery to
6000 5590 customers has led to increase growth of sales volume.
5000 4718
Company has been exploring new market in Eastern India in
INR in Crores
4000 3454
order to gain extra market share. The company is primarily
3000 focused in domestic market. The company`s Net sales
2000 1437
1748 increased by 8% and EBIDTA increased by 22% to 1748
1000
961 1004 Crores. The net profit increased to Rs. 1004 crores on
495
210 account of strong show by power segment.
0
FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
Profitability Margin Analysis
Net Sales EBIDTA Net Profit
35% 30% 31%
28%
30%
The EBITDA margin has remained consistent to
25%
previous year at around 31%.
20%
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Industry Players Performance
Sales & Profitability Analysis Net sales of Ramco Cement Ltd has grown by 18% in FY
4,500 13, whereas the growth in FY 12 was 24%.
4,000 3,831 The reduction in sales growth is due to sluggish demand
3,500 3,257 and higher cement prices.
3,000
INR in crores
2,616
Ramco derives 50% of its sales from Tamil Nadu, 25%
2,500
from Kerala, 13% from Andhra Pradesh and 7% from
2,000
Karnataka. Cement price in south was highest in the
1,500
971 1,048 country.
1,000 658
385 404
500 211 EBIDTA growth in the year FY 13 was 8% as compared to
- FY12 where in FY12 EBIDTA growth was 48% due to
FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 optimal utilization of captive power sources.
Net Sales EBITDA PAT
The annual sales of the company has grown by 18% in FY Profitability Margin Analysis
2013 whereas the EBITDA & PAT margins have decreased. 35%
30%
Reasons for reduction in operating margins are increase 30%
27%
in input cost and transportation cost. 25%
25%
13
Industry Players Performance
J K Cements Limited
Grey Cement
Sales and Profitability Analysis Production in FY 2013 increased to 5.68 Millon Tonnes
3500
compared to 5.32 Million Tonnes in FY 2012 and sales by
2912
3000 6.15% at 5.66 Million Tonnes as compared to 5.33
2500
2547
Million Tonnes in FY 2012.
2094
INR in Crores
and Wall Putty segment contributes close to one fourth 20% 21%
of the Company's top line and one third of the bottom 22%
14
Industry Players Performance
1,000
967 960
There has been an impressive growth in EBITDA and
483
57
260 179 PAT in FY 2012. However, due to severe rise in input
- costs the EBITDA and PAT has declined in FY 2013.
FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
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Industry Players Performance
8000
region of India. However, sales declined by 2-3% in
6000
south and western region due to poor demand.
4000
2097 2201 2543 Cement exports were also reduced in calendar year
2000 1263 1227 1292 ending Dec 2012 due to diversion of cement in
domestic market.
0 Since last two years, there is price rise in cement
CY 2010 CY 2011 CY 2012
industry which has contributed to the healthy sales
realization.
Net Sales EBITDA PAT
EBIDTA and PAT margin had decreased in December Profitability Margin Analysis
2011 as compared to 2010. Major contributor to the
declining profitability margin was rise in interest cost 30% 28%
26%
and increased energy cost (coal price) by Coal India. 25% 26%
16
Industry Players Performance
ACC Limited
Sales & Profitability Analysis The annual sales of the company has grown by 18% in FY
12,000 11,358 2012 whereas the EBITDA & PAT margins have decreased by
10,237 3% & 4% respectively.
10,000
8,261
8,000
In FY 2012, sales increased to Rs 11,358 crores which was
INR in Crores
1,901 2,112 2,125 Efforts have been made to reduce production cost through
2,000 1,074 1,290 1,050 improvements in clinker factor, plant performance, thermal
and electrical energy efficiencies.
-
CY 2010 CY 2011 CY 2012
The reduction in Profit After Tax is on account of change in
Net Sales EBITDA PAT method of depreciation from Straight Line method to
Written Down Value method.
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