Snowpack in the Sierras

Sofia, Stephano, Stephanie, Quinlan

 Current changes in
California snowpack

approximate locations of the

two cameras are shown with
arrows
Previous snowfall impacts

“After the snowier winter of 2010-2011 (left image), much of North America received less snow during the winter
of 2011-2012 (right image). Less snow often results in fewer springtime floods, but also means there will be less
melt water to fill reservoirs and lakes. These maps were compiled using data from the Moderate Resolution
Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the NASA Terra satellite.”
—Credit: NASA Earth Observatory
Impacted areas of
California

Cascading effects of climate change on water-

related ecosystem services.------>
Positive Feedback Loop

Increased amount of solar Increased Warming of the

radiation absorbed by Earth Atmosphere

Albedo - temperature
feedback

Decreased Snow and Ice

Surfaces

These surfaces reflect solar

-U.S. EPA
radiation away from Earth
IPCC Projections
2025

● Prediction: Projected changes

in precipitation will decrease the
global extent of seasonal snow
cover
● Prediction: Decreased duration
of snow cover → some cases,
areas can experience complete
withdrawal of snow
● Impacts: Disruption of local
and global hydrology (meltwater
flow, seasonal distribution of
runoff), distribution of
vegetation, and terrain stability
(mudslides, landslides)

Above is an example of snowpac distribution in 2008, with an early melt shown

through image d. that Illustrates IPCC predictions (Dove).
IPCC Projections
2050

● Prediction: Decrease of snow

cover → impacts to hydrologic
systems, soil stability, and
interconnected socioeconomic
systems
● Prediction: Distribution of
vegetation is projected to shift to
higher elevations → species
with limited climatic ranges are
threatened
● Prediction: Snow cover will be
observed only in regions above
around 5000 feet by the year
2050.
IPCC Projections
2100

● Predictions: NH is projected to
experience a 7-25% decrease of
snow cover
● Predictions: Near surface
permafrost area predicted to
decrease 37-81%
● Predictions: Average Spring
snow cover in NH projected to
decrease 10-30%
● Predictions: ⅓ - ½ of all
mountain glaciers could
disappear
● Impacts: Water resource
management must deal with the
decreased flow rates
 Technology
California needs to “explore adaptation
measures to improve the reliability of future
water supplies in California,” (Chung).

- Annual Average Rainfall is calculated via

complex computer simulated modeling,
rather than the traditional sampling,
aggregating, and averaging (Sangwan).
- These utilize satellite imagery data,
hydrologic data from various real time
sources (like snowfall at fifty different
monitoring stations throughout the Sierra
Nevadas dropped in a given time period),
and current models, all collaborating to
continually update the running precipitation
models and yearly reports.
 Uncertainty & Technology
Scientific Uncertainty is inherent in all scientific study, so confidence
levels are what are actually important

Return Period/Frequency: The likelihood or probability of an event with a

specified intensity and duration → The intensity of a storm can be
predicted for any return period and storm duration, from charts based on
historic data for the location.

The term ‘1 in 10 year storm’ describes a rainfall event which is rare and is
only likely to occur once every 10 years, so it has a 10 percent likelihood
any given year. The rainfall will be greater and the flooding will be worse
than the worst storm expected in any single year.

The term ‘1 in 100 year storm’ describes a rainfall event which is

extremely rare and which will occur with a likelihood of only once in a
century, so it has a 1 percent likelihood in any given year. The rainfall will
be extreme and flooding worse than a 1 in 10 year event. As with all
probability events, it is possible though unlikely to have two "1 in 100 Year
Storms" in a single year,”(BASIN). -Dove
Snowpack Observations
The heavy reliance on computer modeling when
discussing and evaluating water resources
creates a variety of challenges. Most
importantly of which is the difficulty inherent in
coagulating a large amount of data and using
predictive software to make accurate
predictions
- Most models have confidence levels
ranging from 50% to 99%
- Models concerning precipitation and
snowpack have some of the highest
confidence levels, typically above 90%
(Chung)
With the modeled changes and expected annual
precipitation outcomes comes rapidly
decreasing snowpack predictions.
Storms will become more and more infrequent,
as well as simultaneously more intense. This will
be severely detrimental to snowpack, which
relies on consistent snowfall throughout the
winter to accumulate snow, rather than thick
layers dumped all at once that will melt off more
quickly.
Assembly Bill 32

The potential adverse impacts of global warming include the exacerbation of air quality problems, a reduction in the
quality and supply of water to the state from the Sierra snowpack, a rise in sea levels resulting in the displacement of
thousands of coastal businesses and residences, damage to marine ecosystems and the natural environment, and an
increase in the incidences of infectious diseases, asthma, and other human health-related problems(California State
Assembly Bill 32, 2006)

● The bill introduced legislation focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)
● Snowpack was only mentioned at the start of the legislation, defined as a natural water storage
resource in California
Mitigation Issue

Main issue: Snowpack is being affected by anthropogenic emissions being released

into atmosphere.

Legislation: California’s goal of reducing Climate Emissions stated in 2006 and

revised to current standing of Reducing GHG emissions to levels recorded in 1990
by 2030.

Consensus: By reducing the levels of anthropogenic emissions, snowpack reduction

will decrease, and save snowpack from being wiped as a resource.
Snowpack as a resource (Department of Water Resources)

● Snowpack melt serves as a resource water for 25 million residents as well as 750
thousand acres of farmland [NRDC].
● Accounts for a third of California’s water supply [DWR]
● State Water Project relies on environmental health of San Joaquin/Sacramento
Delta, where water is diverted from the upper parts of the rivers via accumulation
in reservoirs and watersheds [Nature Conservancy of California].
● State Water Project (State) runs in association with Central Valley Water Project
(Federal)
● 25% of Water from State Water Project stimulates economy by going to
agricultural use [NRDC].
E.G of State Water Project
Snowpack as an indicator

April 1 signifies transition into the melting phase of snowpack, the transition from
focus flood control to water distribution begins. The index of water storage and use
is indicated through the following 4 months of runoff accumulation, which resets
every year. Trend suggests melt is reoccuring earlier than April 1st and
recommends classifications based on runoff adapt to changes implicated by climate
change [California Climate Change].
Governor Brown Pillars of Climate Change Action

1) 50% of California Energy to be produced via renewable energy (Solar, Hydro,

Wind,etc.)
2) 50% reduction of petroleum use in vehicles
3) Doubling energy efficiency in current developed buildings
4) Carbon Sequestration in the Land ( Natural and Anthropogenic used land)
5) Reducing Greenhouse Gas emissions of shorter-spanned gases (Black Carbon,
Fluorinated Gases, Methane)
Conclusion
Climate change and warming average global temperatures will have drastic effects
on the state of California and it’s water supply. The impacts on snowpack depletion
will have resounding ecological implications throughout the state.

With diminishing snowpack the state is expected to feel economic burden in

virtually all sectors, with particular impact on agriculture. The reservoirs supplying
drinking water to the state will be annually depleted, with drought effects becoming
more severe over time.

Moreover, this will exacerbate the rate of warming in the region due to climate
change, with reciprocal negative environmental effects expected to worsen (ex.
Landslides due to the increasing intense storms rather than seasonal precipitation).
Snowpack

What IS snowpack and why is it important to California?

Hint: Think about the beginning of the presentation

Save the Pack

What do you think the mitigation actions discussed will

accomplish, if anything?

Hint: Think local, state, federal, and even global

Renew the Pack

Keeping in mind the mitigation strategies suggested and

already in place, how would you go about beginning to rebuild
the Sierra snowpack?

Hint: OPEN YOUR MOUTH there are no wrong answers and we won’t make fun of
you!
Resources
● California, State of. “Edmund G. Brown Jr.” /, California Department of Water Resources, 2018, www.water.ca.gov/Programs/All-Programs/Climate-Change-
Program/Climate-Change-and-Water.
● Ferrell, Jesse. “Webcams show stark difference in California snowpack 2018 vs. 2017.” Local Weather from AccuWeather.Com - Superior Accuracy™, AccuWeather, 23
Jan. 2018, www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/webcams-show-stark-difference-in-california-snowpack-2018-vs-2017/70003892.
● “Snow and Climate.” Snow and Climate | National Snow and Ice Data Center, National Snow and Ice Data Center, 2018, nsidc.org/cryosphere/snow/climate.html.
● Chung, Francis, et.al. “Using Future Climate Projections to Support Water Resources Decision Making in California.” California Department of Water Resources, DWR,
May 2009,
www.water.ca.gov/LegacyFiles/pubs/climate/using_future_climate_projections_to_support_water_resources_decision_making_in_california/usingfutureclimateprojtosupp
water_jun09_web.pdf.
● Chang, Heejun, and Matthew Ryan Bonnette. “Climate change and water‐related ecosystem services: impacts of drought in California, USA.” Ecosystem Health and
Sustainability, Ecological Society of America, 27 Dec. 2016, onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ehs2.1254/full.
● Dove, Adrienne, et al. “Physics of a Thick Seasonal Snowpack with Possible Implications for Snow Algae.” Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, vol. 44, no. 1, 2012,
pp. 36–49. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/41416446.
● Climate Change Division (2008-12-17). "Precipitation and Storm Changes". United States Environmental Protection Agency. 17 December, 2017.
● Sangwan, Nikhil. “Calculating the Total Annual Precipitation.” Calculating the Total Annual Precipitation, Carleton College, 8 Nov. 2016,
serc.carleton.edu/hydromodules/steps/114218.html.
● Boulder Area Sustainability Information Network (2005). "What is a 100 year flood?". Boulder Community Network. Retrieved 2009-01-02.
● Barbour, M. G., et al. “Snowpack and the Distribution of a Major Vegetation Ecotone in the Sierra Nevada of California.” Journal of Biogeography, vol. 18, no. 2, 1991,
pp. 141–149. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/2845288.
● Natural Resources Defence Council. 2014. California Snowpack and the Drought. NRDC fact sheet. Available from: https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/ca-snowpack-
and-drought-FS.pdf
● California Department of Water Resources.2018. State Water Project. Available from: https://www.water.ca.gov/Programs/State-Water-Project
● Nature Conservancy of California. 2012. Where Does California’s Water Supply Come From? Land conservation and the watersheds that supply California’s drinking
water.