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1, 2

Petroleum Engineering Department, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia

2, 3

Geothermal Engineering Department, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia

riopradanamp@yahoo.com

Geothermal Association) in his speech at Institut

Arjuno-Welirang Geothermal Field is a green field Teknologi Bandung in 2016, East Java has 1,012

located across Mojokerto Regency, Malang MW of total possible geothermal reserve. Arjuno-

Regency, Pasuruan Regency and Batu City in East Welirang is an integrated investigation area located

Java Province, Indonesia. Geothermal system in across Mojokerto Regency, Malang Regency,

Arjuno-Welirang Geothermal Field is estimated to Pasuruan Regency and Batu City in East Java

be liquid dominated and has a reservoir Province, Indonesia (Figure 1). This working area

temperature of about 260oC based on CO2 gas was handed by government of Indonesia over Geo

geothermometry method (Hadi et al., 2010). Dipa Energi in early 2017 to be developed further.

Several manifestations are found at the surface; This working area is now still in the preliminary

consist of hot springs, fumaroles and alterations. survey phase and has not been entered exploration

The field is now managed by Geo Dipa Energi. phase.

Geological, geophysical, geochemical and

geothermometrical study has been conducted in the Geological, geophysical, and geochemical

field but exploration drilling has not been carried investigation have been carried out in this area,

out yet until recently. For reservoir characterization which produce result of hypothetical resource

and resource estimation purposes, several estimation around 265 MWe (Hadi et al., 2010). A

conceptual models have been developed based on natural state modelling attempt has been done by

geoscience data available. Previously, a natural Wardana et al. in 2016 based on an improved

state modelling attempt which matched to existing conceptual model, which is developed by

conceptual models has been carried out by synthesizing and enhancing the existing conceptual

Wardana et al. (2016). An entirely new natural state models. Three scenarios were simulated based on

numerical model is made in this study to improve the model. The maximum steam production is 100

the result from previous model by using smaller kg/s, or 50 MWe, which is significantly lower than

grid blocks (40% finer). In return, the result shows the hypothetical resource estimation.

more accurate temperature matching of surface

manifestations than the previous model. The

numerical model is developed using TOUGH2

simulator to obtain natural state condition. The

objectives of this study are to develop an improved

natural state numerical model; to validate

temperature of the manifestations in the model with

measured manifestation data; to characterize

geothermal reservoir including area, thickness,

pressure, temperature and permeability distribution;

and to determine resource potential using

probabilistic method. All data used in this paper is

based on published papers.

TOUGH2

East Java

INTRODUCTION Province

Southern part of East Java is passed by the volcanic Figure 1: Location of Arjuno-Welirang Geothermal

route, which is known as the ring of fire which Working Area

consists of active volcanoes. According to Abadi

1

Numerical reservoir simulation is used to imitate Arjuno-Welirang complex, side eruption of Mount

flow process with real parameter of reservoir Bulak and Pundak, young body of Arjuno-

condition using Darcy’s law and heat-mass Welirang, Peak of Arjuno-Welirang Mountain, and

balance. Natural state matching is the first step in feet of Mount Penanggungan (Hadi et al., 2010).

calibrating the model (Grant et al., 2011). It is

matched with relevant data such as the natural Geothermal geology mapping is done using

temperatures and pressures and the amount of volcanostratigraphy method which can delineate

surface discharge as both heat and mass. The the heat source movement. At least there are 5

reservoir model is constructed with mass and heat centers of eruption: Mount Welirang, Mount

input at the bottom, infiltration from the surface, Arjuno, Mount Kembar I, Mount Kembar II, Mount

and leaks at sites of surface or subsurface Bakal, and side eruption in Mount Bulak, Mount

discharge. The structure of the model should be as

Pundak on the north, and Mount Tunggangan on

simple as possible but still having the mechanisms

the west. All those volcano products are classified

that affect reservoir processes. The model later can

be used to predict the performance of the real as magmatic eruptions which deliver lava and

reservoir over time. This simulation study pyroclastic products.

particularly incorporates finer grid blocks than the

Geology structure in Arjuno-Welirang is grouped

previous study (Wardana et al., 2016) with some

improvements in temperature matching of surface according to fault directions: north – south (Cangar,

manifestations. Puncung, and Claket Faults), northwest – southeast

(Padusan, Kemiri, and Bakal Faults), southwest –

northeast (Welirang, Kembar, and Bulak Faults)

OBJECTIVES AND LIMITATIONS and west – east (Ledug and Ringit Faults).

The objectives of this study are:

Geochemistry

1. To develop natural state numerical model of

Arjuno-Welirang Geothermal Field based on Manifestations in Arjuno-Welirang are distributed

conceptual model generated from geological, over 5 locations. Three of them are hot water

geophysical, and geochemical data using springs (Padusan, Coban, and Cangar), while the

TOUGH2 simulator. others are fumaroles and alteration located at the

2. To improve the result of previous numerical peak of the mountain. These manifestation data

model by Wardana et al. (2016). below were collected by Hadi et al. (2010).

3. To validate temperature of the manifestations 1. Padusan Hot Spring

in the model with measured manifestation Hot water emerges from pyroclastic lava

data of hot springs and fumaroles. stones and andesite lava chunks from Mount

4. To characterize geothermal reservoir Welirang. The water is tasteless, colorless,

including area, thickness, pressure, and it contains iron oxide. Sample 1 was taken

temperature, and permeability distribution at coordinates UTM 671,172 mT; 9,149,741

from the model. mS; and elevation 893 masl, with a

5. To determine geothermal energy resource of temperature of 55oC and a pH of 6.3. Sample

Arjuno-Welirang Geothermal Field numerical 2 was taken at coordinates UTM 670,793 mT;

model using probabilistic method. 9,150,137 mS; and elevation 901 masl. It has

This study also has several limitations: a temperature of 50oC and a pH of 5.87.

2. Heat loss and discharge rate of manifestations Small flow rate of hot water appears at

data is unavailable. elevation 1,348 m, at coordinates UTM

3. The usage of EOS1 to model heat and mass 669,198 mT; 9,146,104 mS; from the gap

flow in the model which only covers pressure, between andesite lava produced from Arjuno-

temperature, and gas saturation. Welirang Tua volcanic activity. It has great

quantities of iron oxide, temperature of 39.4 oC

and a pH of 6.44. It is odorless and tasteless.

ARJUNO-WELIRANG

3. Cangar Hot Spring

Geoscience data This hot spring is located in two separated

coordinates. Sample 1 was taken at

Geology coordinates UTM 669,200 mT; 9,143,910 mS;

and elevation 1,611 masl. It has a temperature

Geomorphology of Arjuno-Welirang is categorized

of 54oC and a pH of 5.9. Sample 2 was taken

into seven units: Mount Anjasmoro, old body of

at coordinates UTM 669,111 mT; 9,143,892

2

mS; elevation 1,604 masl. It has a temperature Welirang geothermal prospect area by

of 48.3oC and a pH of 6.0. The water is clear, incorporating the MT data with geological and

tasteless and odorless. It also contains weak geochemical data.

iron oxide and has a thin layer of

carbonaceous sinter, which is rare in the Arjuno-Welirang geothermal system is situated in

Arjuno-Welirang area. the geological complex area which increases the

possibility of 3-D effect on the MT data. A 3-D

4. Fumaroles inversion of the MT data should be carried out to

Several fumaroles are spread on each of the overcome this problem. Moreover, 3-D inversion

top of the cone of Mount Arjuno-Welirang is able to resolve the 3-D effect by applying a 3-D

complex. Such as Mount Arjuno crater, earth model in the inversion process, such that all

Mount Kembar I, Mount Kembar II and of the data stations can be run simultaneously in

Mount Welirang crater (Plupuh and Jero). their real positions without projection.

Temperature measurement was carried out in The 3-D inversion process indicated the presence

Plupuh Crater, which produces results of 94.1 of geothermal system in this area according to the

– 137.5oC. Fumarole of Mount Welirang is subsurface resistivity structure. One of the

located at elevation 3,050 – 3,150 masl. characteristics of a geothermal system found in the

As written above, all of the hot springs are situated resistivity model was the presence of conductive

at lower elevations and have lower temperature layer which can be seen in the cross-section A-B

than the fumaroles. These hot springs are classified and C-D. This conductive layer has a resistivity of

as bicarbonate water based on Cl-SO4-HCO3 1 to 15 ohm-m with various thickness values of 1 to

diagram. They are also classified as immature 2 km. The slightly higher resistivity layer below the

water zone based on Na-K-Mg diagram. The conductive layer has a resistivity of 20 – 60 ohm-

classification indicates an influence of surface m. The lower part of the resistivity structure has the

water to the hot liquid from geothermal system highest resistivity value (> 80 ohm-m). The

resulting hot springs at the surface. The hot springs geometry of the resistivity structure has an updome

are also estimated to be the outflow of the structure for the base of conductive layer (BOC)

geothermal system (Hadi et al., 2010). Based on centered below Mount Welirang. The resistivity

those evidences the geothermal system is estimated contrast in the cross section indicates the geological

to be a one-phase liquid. structures in this area, such as faults.

geothermal system is determined using three

geothermometry calculations method: SiO2, Na/K,

and CO2, which result 176oC, 313oC, and 260oC

respectively. CO2 method shows the most

reasonable result. The high concentration of SiO2 at

Padusan Hot Spring indicates a correlation between

the fumaroles and the hot springs, hence CO 2 gas Figure 2: Cross section A-B of conceptual model of

geothermometry is the most suitable choice which Arjuno Welirang (Wardana et al., 2016)

gives a temperature of 260oC (Hadi et al., 2010).

Conceptual Models

Geophysics

Conceptual model is the first guide to the numerical

In 2010, the Center for Geological Resources of the model. It is a comprehensive analysis from

Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of geological, geophysical, and geochemical data.

Indonesia has carried out magnetotelluric (MT) Geological data gives the raw structure of the

data acquisition in the Arjuno-Welirang prospect model. Geophysical data provides the reservoir

area using 34 stations arranged in a grid with a boundary estimation, from geophysical anomaly.

station spacing of about 1 to 2 km. Only the north While geochemistry data estimates upflow and

and northwest vicinities of Mount Welirang were outflow zones across the area.

covered due to the limited budget and time in the

first step of the MT survey. The 3-D inversion of The latest model was made by Wardana et al.

the MT data was then performed to delineate the (2016) by synthesizing and enhancing the existing

subsurface resistivity distribution of the Arjuno- conceptual models by Hadi et al. (2010), Utama et

Welirang geothermal prospect area (Daud et al., al. (2012), and Daud et al. (2015). Two cross

2015). The objectives of the 3-D inversion of MT section of the conceptual model were made to show

data were to delineate the resistivity structures the outflow to the west and northwest of Mount

associated with the geothermal system and to Welirang. Figure 2 depicts the A-B cross section

construct the conceptual model of the Arjuno-

3

showing estimated clay cap and reservoir position

and isotemperature curves. START

Welirang Due to the absence of thermal

Conceptual Model

manifestations in the east and south of Mount

Welirang, it is estimated that there are no outflows

towards those directions. The possible reason is the

influence of the low permeability lava body from Create Computer Model

Mount Arjuno and the elevation of Mount Choose EOS

Welirang which is higher than Mount Welirang. Define geometry model

Create mesh type and grid system

As described above, reservoir and clay cap of

Arjuno-Welirang geothermal system is interpreted

from the MT 3D inversion data and the magnetic

interpretation. The temperature profile is based on Input Data

manifestation temperatures and a reservoir Material properties

temperature of 2600C, which is estimated from CO2 P & T for initial condition

gas thermometry method. Unfortunately, drilling Boundary condition

data is not available to confirm the temperature

profile.

METHODOLOGY Run Simulation

The method in developing this natural state

reservoir model consists of several steps. It starts

with collecting geoscience data (geological, Matching and Calibration

geophysical, geothermometrical, and geochemical Isotemperature with

data). Then conceptual model is built according to conceptual model

these data. A computer numerical model based on Model P & T ≈ wells P & T

the conceptual model is made using TOUGH2 Heat and mass flow

simulator to simulate fluid and heat flow process of

the reservoir. This numerical model consists of grid

blocks; each is assigned with material properties.

Top, bottom and boundary conditions of the model No Calibration

is set based on the conceptual model. Run the

model iteratively to know the result of the model. Reached?

The material properties, top, bottom, and boundary

conditions are calibrated iteratively to obtain the

Yes

most matched result with the conceptual model

which indicates that the model successfully Natural state model

represents the natural state condition of the

reservoir. The workflow of this simulation study is

shown in Figure 3. Reservoir characterization

Topography Resource estimation

Figure 4, which is smaller than the previous model

made by Wardana et al. (2016), in order to END

emphasize more on the upflow and manifestations

area. This three-dimensional model covers total Figure 3: Flow chart of this study

area of 10.8 km × 14.4 km which equals to 155.52

km2. The lowest elevation of this model is -1,500 limited to the required area which covers upflow

masl and as described above the surface elevation and outflow area of the conceptual model. Then the

varies from 636 masl to 3,208 masl, which makes coordinates are exported onto .xyz format using a

the total thickness is within range of 2,136 m to GIS (geographic information system) software. The

4,708 m. coordinates are tilted by 25o counterclockwise to

match the lateral direction of Padusan Fault, the

The surface topography of this model is excerpted main fault bringing outflow to the surface, which is

from Geotiff model built by Jarvis A. et al., 2006 25o toward northwest. The x and y coordinate of

4

Figure 4: X-Y gridding and the map of Arjuno-Welirang Field

each point is transformed using Equations 1 and 2 topography of Arjuno-Welirang Mountain. Number

below, while Equations 3 and 4 are used to of layers in this numerical model is 20. Thus, in

calculate transformation angle and diagonal length. total, this numerical model consists of 21,060 grid

Figure 5 shows the smooth surface of the model. blocks (27 × 29 × 20).

𝑥 ′ = 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 × 𝑐𝑜𝑠(𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒) ……(1)

𝑦 ′ = 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 × 𝑠𝑖𝑛(𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒) ……(2)

𝑥− 𝑥𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝜋

𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒 = 𝑎𝑟𝑐𝑐𝑜𝑠 ( ) − 25° × ….. (3)

𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 180°

𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 = √(𝑥 − 𝑥𝑚𝑖𝑛 )2 + (𝑦 − 𝑦𝑚𝑖𝑛 )2 …..(4) Figure 5: Smooth surface contour of this numerical

Grid Model model (left) compared to ladder surface grid block

of the previous model by Wardana et al. (2016)

In order to simulate flow in reservoir better, the (right).

grid system around the reservoir area is made finer

than the other area (200 m × 200 m). Grid sizes in

other areas are 200 m × 800 m and 800 m × 800 m.

Figure 4 shows the upper view of the model. It can

be seen that the total lateral grid blocks in x-axis

direction is 27 and 29 in y-axis direction. These

lateral grid sizes are smaller than the one in the

previous model (Wardana et al., 2016) which is

very coarse (1 km × 1 km). A detailed information

of lateral gridding system of this numerical model

is described in Table 1.

Table 1: X-Y grid blocks system

Figure 6: Position of dummy wells in the numerical

X 6 800

model overlapped with the conceptual model map

X 18 200

of Wardana et al. (2016)

X 3 800

Wells

Y 3 800 Five dummy wells are added in the model to match

Y 28 200 the reservoir temperature from model to

Y 8 800 geothermometrical estimation (around 260 oC) and

match the temperature slope to the isotemperature

line in the conceptual model made by Wardana et

Grid blocks in z-axis are varied in thickness. The al. (2016).

thicknesses of the top 3 layers are varied to

5

Dummy well ARW-1 is located right at the center mD) to ensure no flow of heat and mass coming

of upflow area. Dummy wells ARW-2 and ARW-3 into or going out of the system during natural state

are embedded at the west of upflow area following condition.

the cross section A-B of the conceptual model. The

other dummy wells, ARW-4 and ARW-5 are The bottom boundary is embedded with a heat

installed at the northwest outside the upflow area source with volume factor of 1×1020, pressure

following the direction of Padusan Fault. 3.5×107 Pa and 3.1×107 Pa at the lowest and the

Coordinates of the dummy wells are presented in second lowest layer respectively, and temperature

Figure 6. of 300oC. The constant flux of heat-in of 80

mW/m2 and injection with enthalpy of 1.4×10 6 J/kg

Material Properties are also applied at the heat source (Wardana et al.,

2016). It is also assumed that the heat source has a

Materials are used to represent rock properties in constant flux of water rate injection of 2.5×10 -5

each zone. The properties are porosity, kg/s-m2 which is assumed based on PetraSim User

permeability to x, y and z direction, density, wet Manual (2007).

heat conductivity and specific heat. Every single

change in property will affect the simulation result,

but permeability has the greatest influence. These

properties later should be calibrated to meet the NATURAL STATE SIMULATION RESULTS

best simulation result. Pressure and Temperature

Initial and Boundary Conditions After some calibrations, the numerical model

Initial condition is used to define the initial state finally matches the conceptual model. The

(pressure and temperature) of every grid block in numerical model was run until it reaches steady

the numerical model. The pressure and temperature state condition with simulation time of 5.24×10 15

are defined by equations (5) and (6) which are seconds (166,175,799 years). As described above,

functions of elevation (masl). In developing these due to the absence of well data, the matching

equations, the top of the model is assumed as flat at process is only feasible for these parameters:

the elevation of 3,337.58 masl, which is the highest 1. Temperatures in manifestations at the surface

point of Arjuno-Welirang working area. This of the model to the real measured data.

method is used to simplify the initial condition 2. Reservoir temperature in the model to the

input. Otherwise, pressure and temperature of the estimation of reservoir temperature using CO 2

model should be assigned manually for every gas geothermometry method.

individual block. 3. Isotemperature lines in the model to the ones

Pressure at the top of the model is set constant with from the conceptual model of Wardana et al.

101,325 Pa (1 atm). Pressure gradient of Pa/m (2016).

(Equation 5) and intercept of 2.1093×107 Pa are 4. Heat and mass flow in the model to the

used to obtain the pressure of 3.0527×10 7 Pa at the conceptual model.

bottom of the reservoir model (-1,500 masl). There is no measured pressure data, thus pressure

Surface temperature is also set constant (25oC). The matching cannot be done.

temperature increases linearly under the surface by

gradient of 30oC/km. An intercept of 125.1274oC is In the reservoir, the heat spreads from the center of

used to calculate the temperature of 170.1274oC at upflow zone beneath the peak of Mount Welirang

towards northwest and west direction. The heat is

the elevation of -1,500 masl using Equation 6.

channeled through Padusan Fault to the northwest

P = 2.1093 × 107 – 6,289.47z (5) and Ledug Fault to the west.

T = 125.1274 – 0.03z (6) The well is right above the heat source (area with

temperature of 300oC). Dummy well ARW-1 is

The top boundary is defined by ambient located exactly at the center of the upflow zone,

atmosphere temperature of 25oC and pressure of which is also the location of fumaroles. As seen in

101,325 Pa. This condition is kept constant during Figure 7, surface temperature of dummy well

the simulation time by applying volume factor of ARW-1 is 160.65oC which is 23oC higher than

1×1020. Annual rain fall of 2,000 mm/year (BMKG, measured fumaroles temperature data (94.1 –

2010) and an infiltration rate of 10% are 137.5oC). Reservoir under dummy well ARW-1 is

represented by water injection into the top of the ranging within 1300 masl until -900 masl. The

model. temperature is around 240 – 260oC, matched to

result of CO2 geothermometrical estimation

The side boundary is assumed to be far from the (260oC).

model. Its permeability is set low (0.001 to 0.01

6

estimated temperature due to the location of the

ARW-1 well which is at the outside of upflow zone, where

Pressure (bar) the temperature has decreased.

0 100 200 300

3000 ARW-3

2400 Pressure (bar)

0 100 200 300

Elevation (masl)

1800 3000

1200 2400

600

Elevation (masl)

1800

0

1200

-600

600

-1200

0

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

-600

Temperature (°C)

Temperature -1200

Geothermometry temperature (260 oC) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Temperature (°C)

Pressure

Temperature

Figure 7: Temperature and pressure profile of Geothermometry temperature (260 oC)

dummy well ARW-1 compared to CO2 Pressure

geothermometrical estimation of reservoir

temperature

Figure 9: Temperature and pressure profile of

ARW-2 dummy well ARW-3 compared to CO2

geothermometrical estimation of reservoir

Pressure (bar) temperature

0 100 200 300

3000 Dummy well ARW-3 is located right near Cangar

Hot Spring at the west of outflow area. The

2400

temperature profile (Figure 9) shows the hot spring

temperature at the surface (50oC) which is close to

Elevation (masl)

1800

the survey temperature (54oC & 48.3oC). The

1200 subsurface temperature is much lower than the one

600 in dummy well ARW-2 due to the further distance

to the reservoir at the upflow zone.

0

Dummy well ARW-4 is located outside the upflow

-600 area, thus the temperature must be lower than the

-1200 reservoir temperature. Simulation shows that

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 temperature beneath ARW-4 does not exceed

Temperature (°C) 200oC. The temperature rises from the surface

Temperature down to the elevation of 0 masl due to the presence

of Padusan Fault which channels heat from

Geothermometry temperature (260 oC)

reservoir. Then the temperature drops again at

Pressure elevation below the fault.

Figure 8: Temperature and pressure profile of Padusan Hot Spring is located at northwest outside

dummy well ARW-2 compared to CO2 of upflow area. Dummy well ARW-5 is located

geothermometrical estimation of reservoir right at the hot spring. Simulation result shows that

temperature surface temperature in ARW-5 which is also

Padusan Hot Spring temperature is 46.70 oC.

The temperature profile in reservoir layer under

dummy well ARW-2 (Figure 8) is lower than the

7

Padusan Hot Spring

section A-B through the numerical model

Cangar

Hot Fumaroles

Spring

model

Table 2: Comparison of manifestation Figure 12: Temperature distribution and heat flow

temperatures from numerical model and direct sliced at Y = 6800

measurement

Presence of gas

Model Measured

Manifestation temperature temperature

(oC) (oC)

Padusan Hot

47.33 & 46.70 55 & 50

Spring

Coban Hot

42.33 39.4

Spring

Cangar Hot

50.53 54 & 48.3

Spring

Fumaroles 150.37 94.1 – 137.5 Figure 13: Gas saturation distribution of the

numerical model

Surface temperature distribution is presented in higher permeability conduit. As fluid with high

Figure 10, also showing manifestation temperature flow through the conduit, it meets the

temperatures. Table 2 compares manifestation lower pressure near the peak of Mount Welirang,

temperatures from the model and measured data. thus gas is formed. Gas saturation distribution of

the model is shown in Figure 13.

Isotemperature line from the numerical model is

matched to conceptual model of Wardana et al. Simulation result shows that heat and mass of

(2016). Figure 11 shows that the heat source Cangar Hot Spring are originated from Ledug Fault

temperature at the bottom of the geothermal system which connects the reservoir to the western part of

is around 300oC. Reservoir temperature is ranging the field. Coban and Padusan Hot Spring are the

within 200 – 300oC. The 100oC isotemperature line products of Cangar and Padusan Faults

approaches the surface at the peak of Mount respectively.

Welirang producing outflow of fumaroles.

Simulation result is able to show the high

permeability of Padusan Fault which channels the

Heat and Mass Flow heat and mass from the reservoir to northwest

Sliced numerical model is used to observe the heat direction. It also shows that that the high

and mass flow at several places. Figure 12 temperature area decreases respectively from heat

describes that the heat and gas flow vertically from source, reservoir, up to cap rock. In the heat source

the heat source to the fumarole at the peak of and reservoir layer, there are channeling heat from

Mount Welirang. The heat and mass successfully the upflow zone to the northwest and west direction

move through the cap rock by the support of a through the high permeability fault.

8

Table 3: Comparison of manifestation temperatures of the previous model by Wardana et al., (2016), this

numerical model, and measured data

Manifestations (2016) (oC) model (oC) temperature (oC)

Padusan Hot

40 47.33 & 46.70 55 & 50

Spring

Coban Hot

30 42.33 39.4

Spring

Cangar Hot

30 50.53 54 & 48.3

Spring

Fumaroles 25 150.37 94.1 – 137.5

2

Area (km ) 11.4 14 12 Area with temperatures of 200 – 260oC

Thickness (m) 1,930 2,100 2,000 Layers with temperatures of 200 – 260oC

Porosity (%) 3.7 7.5 - Mahsa et al., 2017

3

Rock density (kg/m ) 2,500 2,700 2,600 Mahsa et al., 2017

o

Rock heat capacity (kJ/kg- C) 1 1.1 1.05 Schon, J.H., 2011

Article by Lawless, J. for The Geothermal

Initial water saturation 0.8 1.0 0.9

Code Committee

Final water saturation 0.3 0.7 0.5 Common assumption

o

Initial temperature ( C) 200 260 - From model temperature distribution

Final temperature (oC) 180 - - Common assumption

Recovery factor (%) 9 17 - Muffler (1978)

Electricity conversion factor Nathenson (1975) and Bodvarsson (1974)

9 12 -

(%)

Lifetime (years) 30 - - Common assumption

Random number 60,000

reservoir where fluid temperature is less than the

Temperatures of the reservoir from the numerical boiling point, except at the peak of Mount

model vary within 200 – 260oC which are well Welirang where gas is flowing out to the fumaroles

matched to CO2 gas geothermometrical temperature as seen in Figure 13.

estimation of 260oC. Top of the reservoir is

estimated at 1,100 masl. Model Sensitivity

The reservoir is passed by Padusan (southeast to Monte Carlo simulation is simple probabilistic

northwest) and Ledug Faults (east to west) which method used to calculate the production ability of a

bring the heat from the reservoir to the outflows in reservoir during. It utilizes heat stored method to

Padusan and Cangar Hot Springs respectively as determine generated electricity, which requires

temperatures decrease along the path of the faults. several parameters: area, thickness, porosity, rock

There is also Cangar Fault (southwest to northeast) density, rock heat capacity, initial and final water

which also connects Ledug Fault to Coban Hot saturation, initial and final temperature, recovery

Spring. Permeability range of the reservoir is 20 to factor, electricity conversion factor, and the

80 mD. contract lifetime.

The reservoir is assumed as single porosity system These data shown in Table 4 are collected from

to simplify the model. It only contains one phase of reservoir characterization and assumptions. Monte

9

Carlo uses random numbers within the parameter 2. This model covers smaller area than the

range. This simulation uses 60,000 random previous one to emphasize more on the

numbers. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is also upflow and surface manifestations area.

carried out using deterministic method. 3. As described in Grid Model section above, the

surface topography is modelled smoothly in

Rock porosity and density ranges are taken from this numerical model while Wardana et al.

geophysical study of Mahsa, A. et al. (2017). only use ladder gridding in his model.

Reference from Schon, J.H. (2011) is used in 4. This numerical model also successfully

determining rock heat capacity (1 – 1.1 kJ/kg-oC). matches the actual manifestation temperature

Initial water saturation is based on article of and gas saturation of fumaroles at the peak of

Lawless, J. which stated that liquid- Mount Welirang while the previous model by

dominatedgeothermal system possessed water Wardana et al. (2016) was unable to do such

saturation of approximately 1.0, while the final work. To be noted, the temperature values

water saturation range is based on common from Wardana et al. (2016) are not stated

assumption. Maximum and minimum initial explicitly in the publication. The comparison

temperatures are based on the reservoir temperature is shown in Table 3.

range from three synthetic wells in the model. The 5. Temperature profile result of this numerical

final temperature is based on common model is more reliable than the previous

abandonment temperature, which is 180oC. model. Temperature near the surface in the

Recovery factor is a linear function of porosity previous model barely rises as the depth

based on Muffler correlation (1978). Electrical increases up to 1,000 m.

conversion factor is based on Nathenson (1975) .

and Bodvarsson (1974) correlations which are

functions of fluid temperature. The contract CONCLUSIONS

lifetime is assumed to be 30 years. Based on

resource calculation using Monte Carlo simulation 1. This numerical model result has improved from

with 60,000 random numbers (Figure 14), the the previous one from Wardana et al. (2016).

results of P10, P50, and P90 are 45 MWe, 72 2. The reservoir has an upflow to the peak of

MWe, and 98 MWe respectively. The P10 result is Mount Welirang and outflow to Padusan,

slightly less than resource calculation done by Coban, and Cangar Hot Springs.

Wardana et al. (2016) which is 50 MWe. 3. This model is successfully matched to actual

anifestation temperatures in Padusan, Coban,

and Cangar Hot Springs. It is also able to match

the actual fumaroles temperature of which the

previous model was unable to match. This

model is matched to reservoir temperature

estimation from CO2 gas geothermometry

method (around 260oC).

4. According to the result of Monte Carlo

simulation, the reservoir has resource of 45

MWe during 30 years of production based on

P10 probability, 72 MWe (P50), and 98 MWe

(P90).

RECOMMENDATIONS

Figure 14: Distribution of Monte Carlo simulation

result 1. Other data measurements such as discharge

flow rate at manifestations should be carried

out to improve the matching of this numerical

RESULT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE model.

PREVIOUS MODEL 2. Exploration wells should be drilled in order to

obtain more data such as pressure,

This numerical model has some significant temperature, and production rate to update

improvement from the previous model by Wardana this numerical model.

et al. (2016): 3. Simulate production scenario using this

updated numerical model.

1. The previous model used 1 km × 1 km size of 4. Uncertainty study can be done to obtain other

grid blocks. This new numerical model approaches to the model.

utilizes finer grid (200 m × 200 m, 200 m × 5. Production wells can be drilled near the hot

800 m, and 800 m × 800 m) which produce springs due to the high permeability.

more detail result.

10

REFERENCES

1. Daud, Y.; Fahmi, F.; Nuqramadha, W.A.;

Heditama, D.M.; Pratama, S.A.; Suhanto, E.:

“3-Dimensional Inversion of MT Data over the

Arjuno-Welirang Volcanic Geothermal System,

East Java (Indonesia)”, Proceedings World

Geothermal Congress: 2015.

2. Grant, M.A.; Bixley, P.F.: “Geothermal

Reservoir Engineering: Second Edition”, New

York: Academic Press, 2011.

3. Hadi, M.N.; Kusnadi, D.; Rezky, Y.:

“Penyelidikan Terpadu Geologi dan Geokimia

Daerah Panasbumi Arjuno-Welirang,

Kabupaten Mojokerto dan Malang, Provinsi

Jawa Timur”, Prosiding Hasil Kegiatan Pusat

Sumber Daya Geologi: 2010.

4. Jarvis A., H.I. Reuter, A. Nelson, E. Guevara,

2006, Hole-filled seamless SRTM data V3,

International Centre for Tropical Agriculture

(CIAT), available from http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org.

5. Mahsa, A., Malihati, N., Purwaningtyas, I.,

Banuboro, A., Parapat, J.: “Study of

Geothermal Reservoir Rocks Based on Physical

Properties of Arjuno-Welirang, East Java”, ITB

International Geothermal Workshop: 2017.

6. Thunderhead Engineering, “PetraSim User

Manual”, Manhattan, KS: June 2007.

7. Utama, A. P., Diwanto, A., Situmorang, J.,

Hikmi, M. & Irsamukhti, R.: Green Field

Geothermal System in Java, Indonesia. Proc. 1st

ITB Geothermal Workshop, Bandung,

Indonesia (2012).

8. Wardana, A.; O’Sullivan, J.; O’Sullivan, M.:

“Natural State and Future Production Modelling

of Arjuno-Welirang Geothermal Field,

Indonesia”, Proceedings 38th New Zealand

Geothermal Workshop: 2016.

11

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