May 30th 2018, 3am PST www.tooclosetocall.

ca
Based on the latest polls by Leger(20), Forum(23), Ekos(24), Abacus(26), Ipsos(26), Mainstreet(tracker of 27), Innovative(28) and Pollara(28)
OLP PC NDP Green
% 21.2 34.6 37.5 4.2
seats 4 68 52 0
chances of winning* 0.0% 55.0% 42.7% 0.0%
chances of a majority 0.0% 36.5% 26.0% 0.0% Probability to win the riding

OLP PC NDP Green OLP PC NDP Green

Ajax 28.8% 38.7% 27.1% 5.4% 11.14% 81.72% 7.14% 0.00%
Algoma—Manitoulin 7.1% 26.1% 64.0% 2.7% 0.00% 0.01% 99.99% 0.00%
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 27.6% 44.4% 25.0% 3.1% 2.71% 96.00% 1.29% 0.00%
Barrie—Innisfil 20.9% 42.5% 31.4% 5.3% 0.14% 88.83% 11.03% 0.00%
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 20.3% 43.3% 30.1% 6.3% 0.23% 91.86% 7.91% 0.00%
Bay of Quinte 18.8% 42.6% 33.9% 4.7% 0.13% 82.16% 17.71% 0.00%
Beaches—East York 23.1% 19.0% 52.9% 4.9% 0.02% 0.01% 99.97% 0.00%
Brampton Centre 20.1% 35.2% 39.2% 5.5% 0.14% 31.78% 68.08% 0.00%
Brampton East 13.6% 22.0% 63.0% 1.4% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Brampton North 21.3% 34.0% 41.7% 2.9% 0.30% 19.71% 79.99% 0.00%
Brampton South 25.6% 37.3% 34.3% 2.7% 3.47% 59.85% 36.68% 0.00%
Brampton West 26.8% 33.2% 38.2% 1.9% 4.67% 25.11% 70.22% 0.00%
Brantford—Brant 16.8% 36.3% 43.5% 3.4% 0.01% 22.65% 77.34% 0.00%
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound 10.3% 51.2% 30.4% 8.1% 0.00% 98.48% 1.52% 0.00%
Burlington 25.4% 42.4% 28.6% 3.6% 1.89% 91.75% 6.36% 0.00%
Cambridge 22.4% 36.9% 35.6% 5.0% 0.13% 35.40% 64.47% 0.00%
Carleton 14.7% 52.9% 27.2% 5.2% 0.00% 99.72% 0.28% 0.00%
Chatham-Kent—Leamington 5.2% 39.8% 50.4% 4.6% 0.00% 14.31% 85.69% 0.00%
Davenport 27.4% 12.7% 55.3% 4.6% 0.14% 0.00% 99.86% 0.00%
Don Valley East 34.5% 33.7% 28.8% 3.0% 46.60% 39.20% 14.20% 0.00%
Don Valley North 31.8% 38.7% 26.6% 2.9% 19.26% 75.24% 5.50% 0.00%
Don Valley West 36.5% 37.3% 23.5% 2.7% 45.02% 53.02% 1.96% 0.00%
Dufferin—Caledon 16.5% 42.9% 25.0% 15.7% 0.03% 97.94% 2.03% 0.00%
Durham 18.1% 37.7% 40.7% 3.5% 0.05% 37.03% 62.92% 0.00%
Eglinton—Lawrence 34.0% 36.8% 26.5% 2.7% 35.65% 58.18% 6.17% 0.00%
Elgin—Middlesex—London 1.4% 50.1% 44.2% 4.3% 0.00% 72.25% 27.75% 0.00%
Essex 0.0% 23.4% 73.8% 2.7% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Etobicoke Centre 26.5% 43.3% 28.0% 2.2% 1.99% 94.09% 3.92% 0.00%
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 28.4% 40.0% 28.0% 3.6% 7.24% 85.46% 7.30% 0.00%
Etobicoke North 24.1% 38.7% 35.5% 1.7% 1.21% 64.43% 34.36% 0.00%
Flamborough—Glanbrook 16.6% 39.7% 39.5% 4.1% 0.02% 50.85% 49.13% 0.00%
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 31.5% 36.0% 29.7% 2.8% 25.55% 57.55% 16.90% 0.00%
Guelph 15.9% 26.9% 31.5% 25.6% 5.83% 20.76% 55.62% 17.79%
Haldimand—Norfolk 5.7% 54.5% 35.6% 4.2% 0.00% 97.19% 2.81% 0.00%
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 18.5% 43.7% 34.0% 3.7% 0.06% 85.63% 14.31% 0.00%
Hamilton Centre 4.8% 15.1% 71.5% 8.6% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 12.8% 20.7% 63.1% 3.4% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Hamilton Mountain 10.9% 20.0% 65.4% 3.7% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 23.8% 29.6% 41.9% 4.6% 1.36% 7.73% 90.91% 0.00%
Hastings—Lennox and Addington 11.5% 43.5% 39.5% 5.5% 0.00% 64.72% 35.28% 0.00%
Humber River—Black Creek 24.6% 18.3% 56.0% 1.1% 0.02% 0.01% 99.97% 0.00%
Huron—Bruce 12.5% 42.9% 41.7% 2.9% 0.00% 55.49% 44.51% 0.00%
Kanata—Carleton 19.9% 45.3% 28.5% 6.4% 0.07% 96.84% 3.09% 0.00%
Kenora—Rainy River 5.0% 42.0% 50.4% 2.5% 0.00% 21.84% 78.16% 0.00%
Kiiwetinoong 1.2% 20.4% 75.1% 3.3% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Kingston and the Islands 24.4% 24.8% 43.4% 7.4% 1.45% 1.97% 96.58% 0.00%
King—Vaughan 32.0% 39.0% 26.4% 2.6% 20.51% 74.58% 4.91% 0.00%
Kitchener Centre 23.7% 29.8% 40.8% 5.8% 1.53% 10.68% 87.79% 0.00%
Kitchener—Conestoga 17.5% 40.1% 36.5% 5.8% 0.05% 65.02% 34.93% 0.00%
Kitchener South—Hespeler 20.5% 36.6% 37.1% 5.7% 0.42% 46.71% 52.87% 0.00%
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 1.6% 49.2% 45.2% 4.0% 0.00% 65.21% 34.79% 0.00%
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston 8.0% 50.6% 34.7% 6.7% 0.00% 95.00% 5.00% 0.00%
Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes
1.6% 59.9% 33.9% 4.6% 0.00% 99.54% 0.46% 0.00%
London—Fanshawe 1.6% 26.0% 68.8% 3.5% 0.00% 0.01% 99.99% 0.00%
London North Centre 10.5% 33.2% 51.5% 4.8% 0.00% 2.86% 97.14% 0.00%
London West 5.0% 32.9% 58.7% 3.4% 0.00% 0.44% 99.56% 0.00%
Markham—Stouffville 29.7% 40.4% 26.6% 3.3% 9.97% 85.59% 4.44% 0.00%
Markham—Thornhill 31.8% 41.4% 24.9% 1.9% 13.61% 84.12% 2.27% 0.00%
Markham—Unionville 22.6% 48.3% 25.7% 3.3% 0.12% 99.24% 0.64% 0.00%
Milton 25.3% 43.1% 28.6% 3.0% 1.63% 93.31% 5.06% 0.00%
Mississauga Centre 32.6% 33.1% 31.7% 2.5% 34.53% 36.83% 28.64% 0.00%
Mississauga East—Cooksville 31.4% 34.8% 30.5% 3.3% 27.08% 50.72% 22.20% 0.00%
Mississauga—Erin Mills 30.9% 36.5% 30.8% 1.8% 20.49% 59.81% 19.70% 0.00%
Mississauga—Lakeshore 26.9% 42.5% 27.7% 2.9% 3.51% 91.43% 5.06% 0.00%
Mississauga—Malton 30.1% 28.2% 39.3% 2.3% 13.36% 8.24% 78.40% 0.00%
Mississauga—Streetsville 31.8% 35.9% 28.9% 3.5% 27.35% 58.69% 13.96% 0.00%
Mushkegowuk—James Bay 12.9% 16.1% 70.1% 0.9% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Nepean 22.6% 43.9% 28.7% 4.9% 0.23% 95.31% 4.46% 0.00%
Newmarket—Aurora 26.7% 43.2% 26.4% 3.7% 2.70% 94.36% 2.94% 0.00%
Niagara Centre 3.3% 28.9% 64.4% 3.4% 0.00% 0.01% 99.99% 0.00%
Niagara Falls 0.0% 34.5% 62.8% 2.7% 0.00% 0.18% 99.82% 0.00%
Niagara West 8.0% 50.9% 35.7% 5.3% 0.00% 94.21% 5.79% 0.00%
Nickel Belt 4.4% 20.3% 72.2% 3.1% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Nipissing 10.2% 46.4% 40.1% 3.3% 0.00% 74.30% 25.70% 0.00%
Northumberland—Peterborough South 22.4% 40.4% 33.4% 3.8% 0.70% 77.18% 22.12% 0.00%
Oakville 29.8% 43.8% 23.1% 3.3% 6.54% 92.60% 0.86% 0.00%
Oakville North—Burlington 27.7% 42.9% 26.6% 2.9% 4.18% 92.74% 3.08% 0.00%
Orléans 33.8% 36.7% 26.3% 3.1% 35.66% 58.48% 5.86% 0.00%
Oshawa 5.4% 34.8% 56.5% 3.3% 0.00% 1.15% 98.85% 0.00%
Ottawa Centre 33.4% 16.6% 42.2% 7.8% 17.54% 0.05% 82.41% 0.00%
Ottawa South 31.5% 35.3% 29.3% 3.9% 26.93% 55.85% 17.22% 0.00%
Ottawa—Vanier 37.6% 25.2% 32.4% 4.9% 67.88% 4.33% 27.79% 0.00%
Ottawa West—Nepean 27.7% 33.4% 32.9% 5.9% 13.38% 44.61% 42.01% 0.00%
Oxford 7.5% 49.6% 38.7% 4.2% 0.00% 86.29% 13.71% 0.00%
Parkdale—High Park 23.6% 17.2% 54.4% 4.8% 0.01% 0.00% 99.99% 0.00%
Parry Sound—Muskoka 9.4% 44.1% 27.7% 18.8% 0.00% 96.35% 3.65% 0.00%
Perth—Wellington 19.6% 43.0% 33.1% 4.3% 0.07% 86.22% 13.71% 0.00%
Peterborough—Kawartha 25.8% 36.4% 33.9% 3.9% 5.40% 57.73% 36.87% 0.00%
Pickering—Uxbridge 28.6% 38.6% 28.9% 3.9% 10.72% 78.41% 10.87% 0.00%
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke 1.6% 64.6% 31.0% 2.8% 0.00% 99.97% 0.03% 0.00%
Richmond Hill 29.4% 42.0% 25.8% 2.8% 7.20% 90.16% 2.64% 0.00%
Sarnia—Lambton 0.0% 47.0% 49.0% 4.0% 0.00% 41.87% 58.13% 0.00%
Sault Ste. Marie 22.3% 39.3% 36.3% 2.0% 0.77% 58.86% 40.37% 0.00%
Scarborough—Agincourt 29.9% 40.7% 27.4% 2.1% 9.50% 85.69% 4.81% 0.00%
Scarborough Centre 30.6% 29.1% 37.6% 2.6% 19.10% 10.72% 70.18% 0.00%
Scarborough—Guildwood 30.8% 34.3% 32.5% 2.3% 22.53% 45.36% 32.11% 0.00%
Scarborough North 23.0% 36.4% 39.6% 1.0% 0.66% 35.75% 63.59% 0.00%
Scarborough—Rouge Park 29.0% 30.6% 38.6% 1.7% 11.14% 13.99% 74.87% 0.00%
Scarborough Southwest 27.2% 31.0% 38.2% 3.6% 6.86% 16.77% 76.37% 0.00%
Simcoe—Grey 13.5% 50.5% 28.7% 7.3% 0.00% 99.12% 0.88% 0.00%
Simcoe North 17.7% 41.9% 32.9% 7.5% 0.05% 83.66% 16.29% 0.00%
Spadina—Fort York 29.6% 23.4% 41.9% 5.1% 8.50% 0.69% 90.81% 0.00%
St. Catharines 22.3% 33.1% 41.3% 3.4% 0.69% 18.67% 80.64% 0.00%
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 3.0% 56.7% 38.0% 2.3% 0.00% 96.86% 3.14% 0.00%
Sudbury 22.0% 27.9% 46.9% 3.2% 0.27% 2.60% 97.13% 0.00%
Thornhill 26.9% 49.2% 22.0% 1.9% 0.50% 99.39% 0.11% 0.00%
Thunder Bay—Atikokan 32.2% 24.1% 40.3% 3.3% 18.88% 2.17% 78.95% 0.00%
Thunder Bay—Superior North 35.4% 17.9% 43.0% 3.7% 23.16% 0.12% 76.72% 0.00%
Timiskaming—Cochrane 5.9% 26.1% 66.6% 1.5% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Timmins 3.0% 39.8% 55.6% 1.6% 0.00% 6.74% 93.26% 0.00%
Toronto Centre 34.5% 20.6% 40.3% 4.5% 26.07% 0.29% 73.64% 0.00%
Toronto—Danforth 22.2% 14.5% 58.4% 4.8% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Toronto—St. Paul's 36.7% 28.0% 30.4% 5.0% 67.52% 10.25% 22.23% 0.00%
University—Rosedale 29.4% 24.4% 39.4% 6.8% 12.39% 2.30% 85.31% 0.00%
Vaughan—Woodbridge 37.5% 34.2% 26.5% 1.8% 60.50% 33.53% 5.97% 0.00%
Waterloo 15.8% 30.1% 49.9% 4.2% 0.00% 2.05% 97.95% 0.00%
Wellington—Halton Hills 15.4% 49.7% 28.3% 6.7% 0.00% 98.92% 1.08% 0.00%
Whitby 18.7% 44.8% 32.7% 3.7% 0.03% 91.27% 8.70% 0.00%
Willowdale 31.9% 37.9% 26.7% 3.5% 23.10% 70.99% 5.91% 0.00%
Windsor—Tecumseh 0.0% 17.6% 77.5% 4.9% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Windsor West 19.6% 17.7% 60.1% 2.6% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
York Centre 25.4% 38.7% 33.1% 2.7% 3.07% 71.74% 25.19% 0.00%
York South—Weston 28.9% 16.7% 52.5% 1.9% 0.57% 0.00% 99.43% 0.00%
York—Simcoe 21.1% 38.6% 34.5% 5.8% 0.46% 66.98% 32.56% 0.00%

*Winning=winning the most seats, excluding ties