RESEARCH PROPOSAL

Research is a process of collecting, analyzing and interpreting information in order to increase our
understanding of a problem/topic. Research is not a blind excursion into the unknown, with the hope that the
data necessary to answer the question at hand will somehow fortuitously turn up. It is, instead, a carefully
planned attack, a search-and-discover mission that is outlined in advance. Therefore, in addition to identifying
the specific goal of your research, you must also identify HOW you propose to reach your goal.

Directions:​ ​Use the format below​ to formulate your preliminary Research Proposal. For each section, ​include
the headings but not the questions​. Write several paragraphs to answer the questions listed. Be sure to
re-state the main ideas of the question in your response. ​Single-space​ the document. Use ​third person point
of view​. Use ​page numbers​.

RESEARCH PROPOSAL
Ara Rosenhyslop
Independent Research
2017-2018

Title​: Using Game theory to analyze policy options towards North Korea

Introduction and Overview of Research:

The general area of investigation is discovering how game theory can be used to better understand the
effectiveness of sanctions on North Korea. Trying to determine the effectiveness of sanctions in the context
of North Korea. To solve this the research will look deeper into the probabilities of each of the outcomes. At
the end of the investigation the research will be able to describe different strategies through game theory and
the likelihood of different outcomes.

Background and Rationale

Game theory is used in several academic fields including economics, social science, political science,
and geopolitics. One of the most tense and threatening geopolitical situations in the world today is North
Korea’s determination to continue its illegal nuclear weapons program. The current U.S. and U.N. strategy to
curb North Korea's nuclear weapons program is to instill increasingly stringent sanctions on North Korea and
continue joint military exercises between U.S. and South Korean forces, but these attempts have resulted in
inadequate policy change from Pyongyang. Tension between the U.S. and North Korea dramatically increased
throughout 2017 due to increased rhetoric and saber rattling from both governments. The tension between the
two nations subsided in December and early January after peace talks between North and South Korea resulted
in North Korean inclusion in the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics. “China provides North Korea with most of its
food and energy supplies and accounts for more than 90 percent of North Korea’s total trade volume” ​(Eleanor,
Albert)​ causing many experts and the White House to believe that China’s influence is the only way to curb
North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
Game theory is used to model how different agents (players) will interact with each other in a strategic
situation. Historically most sanctions have failed to meet their stated goals, usually the threat of sanctions are
enough to enforce international law. Most of the time the party targeted with sanctions will either make the
desired change in response to a threat of sanctions, make changes within a couple of years after sanctions are
implemented, or never submit to the demands of the sender country. Ocasinaly heavy long term sanctions that

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last a decade or more can result in behavioral change from a regime, most notably the agreement between Iran
and the U.S. and its allies to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for economic assistance to rebuild
their economy after almost a decade of crippling economic sanctions. Game theory can be used to model the
effectiveness of each possible decision each player can make, and how well that decision will impact other
players. ​If this model is used, then each country will have a better understanding of what other countries most
effective decisions are, and how best that player can maximize the payoff and minimize the cost of different
strategies.
The purpose of this study is to determine the most effective strategy each major nation involved with
North Korea can implement. Knowing what each Nations best options are in a situation is helpful for predicting
how other nations will respond to certain situations, and allowing one nation to adapt to the other player’s
strategies more effectively.

Research Methodology:
Research Question

Research Thesis​.

● Explain what elements you might argue in your paper to support your research thesis.
a. Current US strategy is not working.
b. Working with China is crucial.
c. North Korea will not give up its nuclear weapons program under current conditions.
d. China has similar interests to the US.
e. The US must realign its interests and strategies closer to China.
f. North Korean nuclear armament is unexceptable.
g. North Korea hates joint US and South Korean military exercises.
h. China wants to keep current North Korean regime.
i. China fears North Korea collapse/ millions of refugees.
j. Sanctions currently don’t work.
k. North Korea uses loopholes and black market to evade sanctions.
l. China is the best way to influence North Korea.
m. China can only be effective if the US is willing to cooperate with China or starting
sanctioning china.

● Use a heading for ​Research Design Model​. Identify what specific design model you are using (i.e.,
historical research, descriptive research, etc.) and whether you are doing Qualitative or Quantitative
research. Explain why you chose this design model and how it applies to your study. What are your
variables? Identify and define them.
Qualitative research was conducted with a descriptive and historical research design model, since the examination of
different interactions and strategies were discovered through interviews, current events, and academic journals discussing
either game theory or an aspect of the North Korea situation. The meta analysis

● Use a heading for ​Data Collection​. What did you do for your original data collection? Why did you
choose this? From whom did you collect data? What did you learn that might affect people’s lives or
improve the planet? How is what you learned going to influence the product you’ll make?

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*NOTE – THE DESIGN MODEL AND DATA COLLECTION SHOULD MATCH. A QUANTITATIVE DESIGN
MODEL SHOULD INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE DATA COLLECTION.
The data collection revolved around gathering sources from both game theory and foreign policy
experts. ​Compiling information gathered from the foreign policy experts and inserting that information into a
game theory model​.

● How are you conducting primary research or creating something original? In other words, how will you
create information, rather than just recycling what is already available? How will your literature review
support your data collection?
Information will be gathered from various sources to determine potential foreign policy decisions China, US,
and North Korea have. Each of the decisions will be weighed against each other to determine the most
effective decisions to attain their most important goals.

Players and Objectives

Strategies and their Outcomes ( Costs and Pay-offs and Intended and Uninteded)a

Policy Intended Consequenses ‘Risks’

Sanctions NK becomes NK and other rogue

economically isolated actors bypass
and destabilized sancations

War Annihalization of NK

Nothing

Analysis is: comparing pairs of of strategies and judge which is more effictive

Product Objectives:
● What will be the product(s) and/or outcome(s) of the year of study? (In other words, how will you apply
what you learned from your primary research? And, what will you create to showcase your information?
How will you make the information tangible and useful to your target audience?) Why did you choose
this?

● Who is the specific, targeted audience of the project and product? (Who, aside from you, will learn or
benefit as a result of the work? To whom will the outcomes be communicated? For whom is the product
or result intended?) Why is this your target audience?

● How will the product and outcomes be communicated to or performed for the selected audience?

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Logistical Considerations:
● What resources will be required for the project and product (human, print, organizations, media)? What
are the special considerations of the project (cost, materials, equipment, transportation,
printing/distribution)? Will you need permission from anyone to gather data, or share your final
product?

● Timeline – ​Please type the following:​ “A timeline will be added that outlines the data collection,
product development, and audience distribution.”

Approval:

__________________________ ___________________________ _____________________

Student Signature G/T Resource Teacher Signature Mentor/Advisor Signature

References (if APA); Works Cited (if MLA):

List, using correct bibliographic citation, any sources you cited in-text.

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