Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 782–792

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Environmental Modelling & Software

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Environmental risk assessment of offshore produced water discharges

using a hybrid fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach
Zhi Chen a, *, Lin Zhao a, Kenneth Lee b
a
Department of Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H3G 1M8
b
Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada B2Y 4A2

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: In recent years, regulators and environmental groups have identified the large volumes of wastewater
Received 13 January 2009 discharged through offshore petroleum production activities as an issue of concern. In this paper, fuzzy
Received in revised form set theory coupled with Monte Carlo analysis have provided a stochastic simulation of pollutant
31 December 2009
dispersion for the prediction of the environmental risks associated with produced water discharges. With
Accepted 3 January 2010
Available online 1 February 2010
the application of the fuzzy set to data drawn from previous risk-assessment studies, the model allowed
the evaluation of various existing pollution standards for marine environments. The present modeling
method was validated against data for lead (Pb) levels in the area adjacent to an offshore petroleum
Keywords:
Risk assessment facility located on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, Canada through a multi-year field expedition. The
Fuzzy set proposed risk-assessment approach contributes to the implementation of effective assessment and
Produced water management of produced water discharges in the offshore water environment.
Monte Carlo Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Simulation

1. Introduction
Offshore oil and gas production is often accompanied by the
production of large quantities of wastewater. This ‘produced water’
may contain a number of toxic contaminants, including petroleum
hydrocarbons, heavy metals, radionuclides, and treatment process
chemicals (Hodgins, 1993), which, when discharged into the ocean,
may have adverse effects on nearby marine ecosystems.
In recent years, environmental impacts associated with
produced water discharges have been of great concern to regula-
tors, the public, environmental interest groups, and the oil industry.
To aid in assessing the environmental risks of produced water
discharges, Thatcher et al. (1999, 2001) introduced the Chemical
Hazard Assessment and Risk Management (CHARM) model. This
uses a set of rules to calculate the ratio of predicted contaminant
concentrations to local environmental standards. Reed et al. (2001)
developed the Dose Related Risk and Effect Assessment Model
(DREAM) by coupling the contaminant dispersion model PROVANN
(Reed et al., 1996) and CHARM. Using CHARM in concert with
a Monte Carlo simulation method, Mukhtasor et al. (2004) evalu-
ated toxicity risks arising from produced water generated by an
offshore platform. Similarly, Meinhold et al. (1996a) used Monte
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: zhichen@alcor.concordia.ca (Z. Chen).
Carlo simulations to assess the human health risks of radium and
lead in produced water.
Most risk-assessment studies have used local environmental
guidelines or standards as evaluation criteria, without addressing
their practicability or the uncertainties inherent to them. Current
environmental surveys and regulations suggest the need for
a quantitative risk-based approach in developing environmental
protection policies (Benedetti et al., 2008). The evaluation of
existing standards, and of the scale of potential deleterious impacts
on ecosystems and human health, requires a consultative risk-
assessment approach. Indeed, risk assessment, the process of
assigning magnitudes and probabilities to the adverse effects of
anthropogenic activities or natural catastrophes, should be an
integral part of the decision-making and planning processes
involved in framing a given region’s environmental management
plan (Suter, 1993; Meinhold et al., 1996b).
However, for uncertain parameters that cannot be expressed as
probability distributions, stochastic risk-assessment methods are
inapplicable, so other risk-assessment approaches must be sought
(Brouwer and Blois, 2008). Fuzzy set theory, widely used to handle
uncertainties associated with discrete and/or imprecise character-
istics (Bardossy et al., 1991), can produce results of moderate
acceptability (suitability) (Klir and Yuan, 1995; Zimmermann,
2001). For example, a fuzzy membership function can be estab-
lished to quantify uncertainties associated with evaluation criteria
(Chen et al., 2003).

1364-8152/$ – see front matter Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.01.001
 Z. Chen et al. / Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 782–792 783

Additionally, environmental models are associated with various
uncertainties, which have been examined through fuzzy and hybrid
fuzzy methods (Lauzon and Lence, 2008; Bai et al., 2009). This
study presents an field example with implications of environ-
mental modeling under uncertainty in different environmental
sectors. The objective of this study was to develop a hybrid fuzzy-
stochastic modeling approach to predict the risks associated with
produced water discharges and to examine uncertainties in
discharges parameters and related environmental standards. A
numerical dispersion approach based on an integration of ocean
hydrodynamic and pollutant dispersion models was used to
provide simulations of the dispersion of lead within the produced
water effluent stream. The Monte Carlo method was used to
provide a stochastic simulation of pollutant dispersion associated
with produced water discharges. The developed approach was
validated with data from an offshore petroleum facility located on
the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, Canada.
2. The integrated modeling and risk-assessment system
2.1. Numerical contaminant transport model
A numerical dispersion approach, based on the integration of
ocean hydrodynamic and pollutant dispersion models, was used to
provide simulations of the dispersion of ocean contaminants. The
Random Walk Model was used for the pollutant dispersion simu-
lation, while the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) was embedded in
the dispersion model and provided the three-dimensional velocity
field of prevailing ocean currents.
same way as was done for the initial density field (Mellor et al.,
1994, 1998); s is the sigma vertical coordinate (m); and u is the
velocity component normal to sigma surfaces (m s1).
2.1.2. Dispersion model – the random walk model
The Random Walk model, based on a particle tracking method,
served as the dispersion model for this study. The mathematical
expressions are (Riddle et al., 2001):
qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
Dx ¼ U Dt þ 2Kh Dt Rx
qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
Dy ¼ V Dt þ 2Kh Dt Ry (4)
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
Dz ¼ W Dt þ 2Kz Dt Rz
where, Dx, Dy, and Dz represent the three-dimensional movements
of a particle occurring within a model timestep (m); Dt is the
timestep duration (s); drawn from the POM model embedded in
the contaminant transport model, U, V, and W are the horizontal
and vertical velocity components at time t, (m s1), and represent
hydrodynamic ocean circulation; Rx, Ry, and Rz are random numbers
from a standard normal distribution; Kh and Kz are the horizontal
and vertical mixing coefficients (m2 s1), uncertain parameters
which can be quantified based on Eq. (5). Each particle represents
a fixed mass of effluent. It is assumed that no contaminant degra-
dation occurs.
2.2. Integrated risk-assessment approach

2.1.1. Ocean circulation model – POM 2.2.1. Monte Carlo method for quantifying system uncertainty
As a three-dimensional ocean circulation model with a vertical Risk assessment requires that both model and data uncertainty
sigma coordinate and curvilinear horizontal grids, POM can address be taken into account. This can be accomplished using a Monte
large scale and long-term phenomena according to basin size and Carlo simulation to quantify system uncertainties, with model
grid resolution. The POM’s continuity and momentum equations outputs serving as the basis for risk quantification.
are as follows (Mellor, 2004): Given the uncertainty of parameters in the contaminant trans-
port model, the Kh and Kz mixing coefficients are the simulations’
vDU vDV vu vh key input variables. As these coefficients tend to follow a normal
þ þ þ ¼ 0 (1)
vx vy vs vt distribution (Riddle et al., 2001), a Monte Carlo approach is used to
generate coefficient data based on the reference and observed
mean value. The normal generators can be expressed as follows:
vUD vU 2 D vUVD vU u vh
þ þ þ  fVD þ gD
vt vx vy vs vx x ¼ Nðsx ; mx Þ (5)
where, x represents either Kh or Kz; Nðsx ; mx Þ represents a normal
Z0  0   
gD2 vr s0 vDvr0 0 v Km vU distribution function of sx and mx ; sx is the standard deviation of x;
þ  d s ¼ þ Fx (2)
r0 vx D vxvs0 vs D vs and mx is the mean value of x.
s The results of the uncertainty analysis depend directly on the
distributions assumed for each of the parameters. Hence, good
vVD vUVD vV 2 D vV u vh representative data (e.g., the information of the range of parameter
þ þ þ þ fUD þ gD
vt vx vy vs vy values, or mean values) are required to obtain reliable estimates of
uncertainty.
Z0     After generating sets of random values for each parameter, the
gD2 vr0 s0 vDvr0 0 v Km vV distribution of predicted concentrations for each grid square can be
þ  d s ¼ þ Fy (3)
r0 vy D vyvs0 vs D vs calculated using the transport model. The resultant distribution can
s
then be used to define 5th and 95th percentile concentrations (e.g.,
where, f is the Coriolis parameter (s1); g is the gravitational 95% of all sample concentrations are less than this concentration),
acceleration (m s2); t is time (s); x, y are horizontal Cartesian which reflect system uncertainties.
coordinates (m); D h H þ h is the total elevation of the surface
water (m); H is the bottom topography; h is the surface elevation 2.2.2. Probabilistic risk assessment
(m); Fx, Fy are the horizontal diffusion terms (m2 s2); Km is the To account for uncertainties, presumed to owe their existence to
vertical kinematic viscosity (m2 s1); U and V are the horizontal random processes within spatial systems (Schuhmacher et al.,
velocities (m s1); r0 ¼ r  rmean before the integration is carried 2001), a probabilistic risk-assessment modeling approach was
out; rmean is generally the initial density field which is area aver- used. A range of model scenarios were evaluated by repeatedly
aged on z-levels and then transferred to sigma coordinates in the picking uncertain variables’ values from a probability distribution
784 Z. Chen et al. / Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 782–792

and using these values in the model. Such probabilities were
propagated through the model, and an output distribution
describing the probability of various outcomes was generated.
In this study, the inputs are the mixing coefficients Kh and Kz;
the model is the numerical contaminant transport model as
described above; and the output probability distribution is used to
calculate the risk levels. The risk can be quantified as follows (Chen
et al., 1998):
ZN
R ¼ PðL > C0 Þ ¼ fL ðLÞdL (6)
C0
where, R is the risk level quantified as the probability of system
failure; fL(L) is the probability density function; L is a random pol-
lutant’s concentration; and, C0 is a local environmental criterion.
2.2.3. Construction of fuzzy membership functions for
evaluation criteria
In most risk-assessment studies, local environmental standards
have been used as evaluation criteria. However, such standards can
vary widely from one location to another, and are often overly
conservative and thus impractical. For example, while the
Netherlands mandate a maximum lead concentration (Pb) in
surface waters of 10 mg L1, the Canadian Water Quality Guidelines’
(CWQG, 2006) protection of aquatic life criteria for 4-day mean Pb
are 1, 2, 4 or 7 mg L1 for freshwater bearing 0–60, 60–120, 120–180,
or >180 mg CaCO3 L1 (hardness), respectively (Table 1). However,
Canadian guidelines offer no Pb criteria for seawater. While the
USEPA has established a seawater protection standard for aquatic
life of 5.6 mg Pb L1 (4-day mean; Eisler, 2000), the State of Cal-
ifornia (COP, 2001) has mandated a more stringent standard of 2 mg
Pb L1 (6-month median).
Given the wide variability in these protection of aquatic life
standards (Table 1), their practicability must be further addressed.
Uncertainties associated with a standard’s suitability involves
imprecise concepts that cannot be solved through probability
theory, but can be quantified using fuzzy logic. When a standard is
suitable, it has a good chance of being adopted without significant
modifications (Leung, 1988). Therefore, the concept of membership
grade can be established to reflect the suitability of the standard
and its associated uncertainties (Chen et al., 2003). In this study,
a triangle membership function was formulated by an analysis of
chronic toxicity to aquatic biota organisms. Formulation of
a membership function for the fuzzy evaluation criteria was divided
into three steps:
1. Determination of the maximum tolerable Pb – Cmax
Many studies of the toxic effects of lead in aquatic ecosystems
have been conducted. California’s environmental protection agency
(COP, 2001) estimated chronic lead toxicity to occur at a Pb of
22 mg L1. Any water quality objectives should be below this value.
From mortality rates observed in a life-cycle study of the snail
Lymnaea palustris, Borgmann et al. (1978) established chronic lead
toxicity concentration of 19 mg L1. Rivkin (1979) showed that in
Table 1
Lead criteria for the protection of aquatic life.
Origin (type of water) Lead concentration (mg L1)
Canada (freshwater) 1–7
Netherlands (freshwater) 10
USEPA (seawater) 5.6
California (seawater) 2
a marine environment 12 days under a Pb of 10 mg L1 caused
complete growth inhibition of the diatom Skeletonema costatum.
Rising waterborne Pb above 10 mg L1 is expected to cause
increasingly severe long-term effects on fish and fisheries (DeMayo
et al., 1982; Ruby et al., 1993). As it would be too risky to chose any
greater a Pb as our standard, a Pb of 10 mg L1 was chosen as
a completely unsuitable level, with a suitability score of 0 (i.e.,
membership grade m(Cmax) ¼ 0). Lower Pb concentrations would be
progressively more suitable.
2. Determination of the most suitable standard level (Coptimal)
It is obvious that the lower the standard concentration, the
stricter the environmental regulation. However, too strict a regu-
lation may become impractical and may simply not be imple-
mented. Lead adversely affects the survival, growth, reproduction,
development, and metabolism of most species under controlled
conditions, but its effects are substantially modified by numerous
physical, chemical, and biological variables. Surveying previous
studies of Pb toxicity to aquatic organisms, Borgmann et al. (1978)
noted no deaths of the snail L. palustris when exposed to a Pb of
3.8 mg L1 over its entire lifetime. Eisler (2000) reported adverse
effects of Pb on daphnid reproduction at a [Pb2þ] of 1.0 mg L1.
Therefore, taking a precautionary approach, we define the ‘‘most
suitable standard level’’ with membership grade m(Coptimal) ¼ 0.5 mg
Pb L1.
3. Determination of minimum possible lead concentration (Cmin)
For the minimum possible lead concentration, the extreme
situation is considered that is impractical and cannot be imple-
mented as a standard, which is, Cmin ¼ 0 mg L1 with m(Cmax) ¼ 0.
Based on the above analysis, a membership function of fuzzy
evaluation criteria pertaining to the ‘‘suitability’’ of Pb standards for
the protection of aquatic life was obtained (Fig. 2):
mðC 0 Þ [ 2:0 C 0 ; when 0 £ C 0 £ 0:5 (7a)
mðC 0 Þ [ 1:053 L 0:105 C 0 ; when 0:5 < C 0 £ 10 (7b)
Fig. 2 gives the detailed computational process for the proposed
risk-assessment system illustrating the integration of transport
simulation, uncertainty analysis, and risk assessment. This system
comprises a numerical dispersion model, the Monte Carlo method,
and a fuzzy set module. Monte Carlo method is conducted by
randomly generating the horizontal and vertical mixing coefficients
Kh and Kz based on Eq. (5). Each set of Kh and Kz inputs into the
transport model, thus, a set of predicted concentration is generated
and stored for further uses. After the chosen number of simulation
µ(C0)
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
C0 (µg/L)
Fig. 1. Membership functions of fuzzy evaluation criteria for Pb.
 Z. Chen et al. / Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 782–792 785

START

Chose a point of concern

fL(L) Read mean and standard deviation
of uncertainty parameters (mixing
coefficients Kh and Kz)
Compute the probability distribution
function of predicted concentrations
I=1

Read an existing
standard criterion Call random number of uncertain
parameters (Kh and Kz)

I=I+1
Probabilistic risk Solve the numerical dispersion model
Calculate fuzzy (Random Walk Model + POM) to
analysis of violating
membership grade obtain prediction
the criteiron

Store the predicted

concentrations
Integrated risk level

Yes No
STOP If I = NUM ?

Fig. 2. Integrated fuzzy-stochastic risk-assessment approach processes.

runs are achieved, a point of concern can be chosen and the cor-
responding probability distribution can be plotted. Chemical
toxicity threshold standards are identified. The probabilistic risk
level of violating each standard and the corresponding fuzzy
membership grade based on the fuzzy evaluation formula Eq. (7)
and Fig. 1 are calculated. Finally, a complete set of integrated risk
levels is obtained.
3. Case study
3.1. Overview of the study site
A study site around an offshore oil platform on the Grand Banks
of Newfoundland, Canada, was chosen for the risk-assessment
analysis. The Hibernia production platform, a Gravity Base Structure

Fig. 3. Location of the study site and the conceptual model.

786 Z. Chen et al. / Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 782–792
0.5 m/s
40000
30000
Y (m)
20000
10000
20000 25000 30000 35000
X (m)
Fig. 4. Current vectors at 10 m of depth in the water after a model run of 25 days (the
point is the location of Hibernia, and the bolded vectors are the observed velocity that
occurred during the period from June 24, 2005 to June 28, 2005. The observed
velocities are obtained from the Hibernia Platform Annual Current Measurement
Report 2005).
(GBS), is located above 80 metres’ depth of sea, and accounts for the
greatest volume of produced water currently discharged into the
waters of Atlantic Canada (CAPP, 2001). A roughly 50 km  50 km
grid with the Hibernia GBS at its centre is shown in Fig. 3.
Since there are no existing current monitoring stations around
the study area’s four boundaries, numerical radiation open
boundary conditions (OBCs) were performed in the ocean circula-
tion model (POM) to simulate the ocean current. However, no
matter which type of OBCs were chosen, numerical errors could
exist that would create an unrealistic flow across the boundary,
thus affecting simulation results. To eliminate such errors, ocean
currents were simulated for an area almost 200-fold that of the
study area (Fig. 3). Only the partial results for the middle of the
larger area were used for the simulation of pollutant dispersion.
The numerical dispersion model was initialized over a virtual
30-day period using June 2005 climatological data, including
monthly mean temperature and water salinity as well as hourly-
averaged wind data. These data were obtained from Fisheries and
Oceans Canada’s Oceanographic database, Environment Canada’s
climatic database, the National Data Buoy Centre’s database and
PAL Environmental Services (2005).
A produced water release port 40 m below the surface at the
Hibernia platform was identified and considered as the origin of
produced waterborne Pb. Our sampling analysis showed that
background Pb (e.g., 0.0001 ppb) was negligible for the study
region in the Atlantic Canada and thus a background Pb of zero was
used in this modeling study. Samples of produced water and
ambient seawater were collected in close proximity to the Hibernia
platform during a research expedition in June 2005.
3.2. Validation of the numerical dispersion model
Validations for both the simulated current results and Pb
dispersion results are conducted and have been shown in Figs. 4
and 5, respectively.
Since the limited field current data in the study area, as shown in
Fig. 4, modeling results at 10 m deep of 25-day model run have
been compared with the observed velocity that occurred during the
period from June 24, 2005 to June 28, 2005 at the depth of 10 m
under the water. These observed velocities are instantaneous
velocities and are measured by means of Acoustic Doppler Current
Profiler (Hibernia Platform Annual Current Measurement Report
2005). Based on the comparison, the modeling current results
generally match the observations. However, the ocean flow may
become more violent by the presence of turbulence effects.
Therefore, further validations for the flow results are still needed.
Modeling results for Pb dispersion are validated at 3 different
depths (10 m, 35 m, and 60 m) as shown in Fig. 5. The modeling
result contours are generated from the average data after 30-day of
model run. The field observations (triangle dots in Fig. 5) are
collected from an oceanographic expedition to the Hibernia plat-
form, which were conducted with the CCGS (Canadian Coast Guard
Services) Hudson in 2005 under the PERD (Program of Energy
Research and Development) research program (Ecological Risk of
Produced Water Discharges from East Coast Oil and Gas Opera-
tions) by BIO (Bedford Institute of Oceanography) and COOGER
(Centre for Offshore Oil and Gas Environmental Research) scientific
team. The analysis of produced water samples and seawater
samples was conducted by COOGER and TAF (Trace Analysis
Facility) at the University of Regina, respectively.
The dispersion pattern will be affected by instant changes of the
ocean current directions, which makes the validation even more
difficult because the modeling results can never be at the same time
with samples collected from the site. Therefore, the 30-day aver-
aged modeling results are compared with the observations. As
shown in Fig. 5, they have a good agreement at the depth of 35 m
which is the layer very close to the discharge port (the produced
water are discharged at 40 m deep). This confirmed that the
random walk particle tracking approach can achieve good results in
the region close to the discharge point (Suh, 2006).
However, the modeling results at the depth of 10 m and 60 m
are smaller than the observations. This may rely on many reasons,
for example, the modeling results are 30-day average data while
the samples are collected instantly; the instant change of ocean
currents may affect the dispersion pattern. This may also reflect
a drawback of the random walk model, which is, numerical errors
will arise during the conversion from the particle to the concen-
tration representation as the final step of the model in a fixed
computational grid system. The smaller the number of particles in
each cell, the higher the errors in the computation of concentration.
Nevertheless, the overall validation results show that the present
numerical dispersion model is capable of examining both current
and pollutant dispersion processes in the study site.
3.3. Monte Carlo simulation for the study area
Over the life of a producing field, the volume of the produced
water can exceed by 10 times the volume of the hydrocarbons
produced. During the later stages of production, it is not
uncommon to find that produced water can account for as much as
98% of the extracted fluids (Stephenson, 1992; Shaw et al., 1999).
Petro-Canada (2005) has estimated that the Hibernia site still has
an exploration life of from 20 to 25 years. Therefore, using known
trends in production from 1997 to 2006 (BASIN, 2007), future risks
in the Hibernia area were assessed for the end stage of production
and an emission rate of 5.1 107 m3 yr1.
Based on Eq. (5) the values of mixing coefficients Kh and Kz are
normally distributed (Riddle et al., 2001). The Kh was assigned
a uniform distribution between 50 and 120 m2 s1, while Kz was
assigned a normal distribution with a mean and standard deviation
of 0.007 and 0.003 m2 s1, respectively. The selection of parameter
distributions is discussed later. Since Kh and Kz are uncertain, the
 Z. Chen et al. / Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 782–792
Fig. 5. Validation of the modeling results with the field observations (the white dot on 40 m layer is the location of Hibernia discharge point; the modeling results are generated
from the average data after model runs for 30 days).
generation of 200 pairs of Kh and Kz values was based on the
assumption of a normal distribution (Eq. (5)).
The ocean’s physical conditions and the Pb in produced water
discharges were assumed to remain unchanged over the period of
2005–2025. Using the multiple pairs of Kh and Kz values, 3D Pb-
distribution patterns were generated through a Monte Carlo
approach for 2025, thereby allowing the mapping of the uncer-
tainty in the concentration predictions and risks for 2025.
After Monte Carlo results were generated for each of the grid
squares, 95th and 5th percentile concentration contour maps were
prepared (Fig. 6). The plots of 95th percentile Pb concentration (Fig. 6a)
do not necessarily represent an instantaneous area-wide concentra-
tion distribution, because the parameters contributing to one grid
location’s 95th percentile Pb may differ significantly from those pre-
vailing at another location; consequently, the 95th percentile Pb-
distribution plots may represent a ‘‘worst case’’ prediction (Riddle
et al., 2001). Predicted 95th percentile Pb were of the order of 0.2–
2.4 mg L1, and may be much greater at the produced water outlet. The
corresponding 5th percentile Pb were of the order of 0.05–0.85 mg L1.
787
3.4. Integrated risk assessment for the study area
Risk-assessment scenarios were investigated for each of four
criteria of the protection of aquatic life: (i) Environmental Canada,
(ii) the Netherlands, (iii) USEPA, and (iv) the State of California.
Criteria (i) and (ii) are for freshwater, while the remaining two [(iii)
and (iv)] are for seawater (Table 2). Probabilistic risk levels were
generated by means of a stochastic risk-assessment approach (Eq.
(6)). The membership grade representing the suitability of using
these standards as risk-assessment criteria was calculated by using
Eq. (7). This analysis revealed the ties between the strictness and
the applicability of environmental standards.
Under Scenario (i), the risk-assessment criterion was based on
regulations which took into account water hardness (Table 2). For
a Pb criterion of 1 mg L1 and a water hardness of 0–60 mg
CaCO3 L1 the model calculated a probabilistic risk level of 0.94,
representing a 94% probability that the criterion would be
violated. Based on Eq. (7), the corresponding membership grade is
0.95, indicating a high suitability of the guideline used. Similarly,
788 Z. Chen et al. / Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 782–792

25000
a b

(µg/L) (µg/L)
24500

2.4 0.85
2.2
0.75
24000 2
0.65
1.8
0.55
Y (m)

1.6
1.4 0.45
23500 1.2 0.35
1
0.25
0.8
0.15
0.6
23000
0.4 0.05
0.2

22500
26000 26500 27000 27500 26000 26500 27000 27500

X (m) X (m)

Fig. 6. Uncertainty predictions showing (a) 95th percentile lead concentrations and (b) 5th percentile lead concentrations for produced water dispersion.

for the criterion of 2 mg L1 for a water hardness of 60–120 mg approach ranged from 0 to 0.94, and corresponding membership
CaCO3 L1, the probabilistic risk level was 0.25 with a corre- grades from 0 to 0.95.
sponding membership grade of 0.84, indicating a slightly lower Compared with traditional risk-quantifying methods, the
suitability than the 1 mg Pb L1 criterion. For the criteria of 4 and present risk-assessment approach is not only capable of quantifying
7 mg L1 for hardness values of 120–180 and >180 mg CaCO3 L1, probabilistic risk levels based on numerical simulation, but is also
the probabilistic risk levels were zero, indicating that the stan- an attempt to reflect the possible suitability of the evaluation
dards would never be violated. The corresponding membership criteria for future environmental protections. The ties between the
grade was 0.63 and 0.32, respectively, showing the standards’ low suitability (applicability) and relevant risk levels are further illus-
applicability. trated in Fig. 7. In general, for the protection of aquatic life in
Under Scenario (ii), using a Pb guideline of 10 mg Pb L1 issued seawater, the scenario based on the guideline issued by the State of
by the Netherlands, led to an integrated risk level of zero, and California has a higher membership grade than the others, indi-
a membership grade of 0, indicating a completely unsuitable cating that the California criterion is more applicable in regulating
standard. Scenario (iii) 3, using the USEPA’s aquatic Pb criterion of Pb in the marine environment than the other criteria studied.
5.6 mg Pb L1 also led to a risk level of zero, indicating that the In order to provide a simple and effective way to visually illus-
standard would never be violated. The corresponding membership trate the level of risks associated with production discharges
grade of 0.47, indicated the standard’s relatively low applicability. around an offshore production platform, a severity scale map was
Under Scenario (iv), using the State of California’s Pb guideline plotted using the 2 mg Pb L1 California criterion, which has a fuzzy
of 2 mg Pb L1 led to an integrated risk level is 0.25 with membership grade of 0.84 (Fig. 8). The risk zone with a stochastic
a membership grade of 0.84, indicating the standard’s high appli-
cability. For the four protection of aquatic life standards investi-
1
gated, probabilistic risk levels obtained through the developed
0.9 Risk level Membership grade
0.8
Table 2 0.7
Summary of fuzzy-stochastic risk-assessment results.
0.6
Issued place Regulated Integrated risk level
0.5
value (mg L1)
Stochastic risk Membership grade 0.4
Canada (freshwater) 0.3
Water hardness, in mg CaCO3 L1
0–60 1.0 0.94 0.95 0.2
60–120 2.0 0.25 0.84 0.1
120–180 4.0 0 0.63
0
>180 7.0 0 0.32 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Netherlands (freshwater) 10.0 0 0
USEPA (seawater) 5.6 0 0.47
Pb Concentration (µg/L)
California (seawater) 2.0 0.25 0.84
Fig. 7. Results of the integrated risk assessment.
 Z. Chen et al. / Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 782–792 789

Criteria of 2 ug/L P(L>C0) > 20%

With membership grade of 0.84
20%>P(L>C0) > 10%

P(L>C0) < 10%

24000 P(L>C0) = 0

0.2
0.
7
Y (m)

1.2

23500 1.7

23000
26000 26500 27000 27500
X (m)

Fig. 8. Mean lead concentration distribution and severity scale map for integrated risks with a membership grade of 0.84 based on the criterion issued by the State of California
(2 mg L1) at 40 m depth in 2025.

risk level above 0.2 (i.e., mean Pb >1.6 mg L1) is approximately
25,000 m2, bounded within a 90 m radius around the Hibernia GBS
platform. The majority of the study area had a zero probability of
violating the adverse effects threshold value selected.
Since the formation of the fuzzy membership function consid-
ered the toxicity effects of waterborne Pb for different species, the
proposed approach can be also used to evaluate toxicity effects on
the marine environment (Fig. 9). The 95th percentile concentration
can be generated by using the Monte Carlo method. If this
concentration is larger than Coptimal, then a corresponding
membership grade can be obtained by using the fuzzy membership
function. Given how the fuzzy membership function is developed,
the lower the membership grade, the more toxic is the evaluation
point. Such an evaluation map (Fig. 10) shows that the area close to
the releasing source has a membership grade lower than 0.8,
demonstrating a possible toxic area at the point of release of
produced water. At about 300 m from this source, the membership
grade reaches 1, corresponding to a 95th percentile Pb of 0.5 mg L1.
Further away from this area, the Pb drops to very low levels, hardly
posing any threat of toxic effects to the aquatic life.
4. Discussion
Estimating the range of mixing coefficients Kh and Kz in the ocean
is difficult and complicated by the spatial variability in water velocity
and turbulence in such a large expanse as the study area. Riddle et al.

Monte Carlo Simulation

PDF

95th percentile
concentration

Concentration
Toxicity risk
µ(C0) evaluation

Fuzzy
membership grade
Coptimal C0
Fuzzy membership function

Fig. 9. Evaluation of toxicity effects using a fuzzy-stochastic risk-assessment approach.

790 Z. Chen et al. / Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 782–792

Fig. 10. Three-dimensional toxicity evaluation map (the contour is the 95th percentile concentration; and the color scale is the fuzzy membership grade).

(2001), working in the North Sea, used Kh values ranging from 10 to
50 m2 s1 and a mean, standard deviation and minimum of 0.05,
0.004 and 1 104 m2 s1, respectively, for Kz. However, as the
physical characteristics of the North Sea and Atlantic Canada are very
different, their mixing coefficient would be too. Fig. 11a shows the
probability distribution function at the Hibernia site in 2025 under
Riddle’s range of the mixing coefficients. A large tail is present in the
probability density function’s distribution and much Pb is generated,
indicating little mixing and a high Pb accumulation under this
distribution of the parameters. In order to avoid such an influence of

the horizontal mixing coefficient with a

PDF
a distribution from 10 to 50 m2 s-1 and
the vertical mixing coefficient with a
mean of 0.05 and standard deviation of
0.004 m2 s-1 with a minimum value of
1 × 10-4 m2 s-1 in the North Sea
(adapted from Riddle et al. (2001)).

Concentration

PDF
the horizontal mixing coefficient b
with a distribution from 50 to
120 m2 s-1 and the vertical
mixing coefficient with a mean
of 0.07 and standard deviation
of 0.003 m2 s-1

Concentration

Fig. 11. Simulation of probability density function for 2025 at the Hibernia site.
 Z. Chen et al. / Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 782–792
low mixing coefficients on the risk analysis, local conditions at the
Hibernia platform were monitored and a calibration undertaken. The
results of both support the use of a uniform distribution of Kh from 50
to 120 m2 s1, and of a normal distribution of Kz, with a mean and
standard deviation of of 0.007 and 0.003 m2 s1, respectively
(Fig. 11b).
The present study characterized uncertainties related to envi-
ronmental standards based on toxicity studies in marine environ-
ments, through the use of an integrated risk modeling framework. A
triangle fuzzy membership function was formulated, which was used
to estimate the suitability of a standard for risk assessment and
thereby address the uncertainty of the standard. Other forms of
membership function, such as the L–R nonlinear membership func-
tion (i.e., continuous, convex membership functions) (Leung, 1988),
can be used to address these complexities in the future. However,
more computational and experimental efforts are required.
5. Conclusions
The fuzzy set theory integrated with Monte Carlo method has
been applied in this study to reflect uncertainties associated with
produced water discharges and related regulated pollution criteria
for the marine environment. A triangle fuzzy membership function
was established to reflect the toxicity effects of waterborne Pb and
the suitability of local Pb standards. To generate a numerical
dispersion model, an ocean hydrodynamic model (POM) was
coupled with a pollutant dispersion model (Random Walk Model).
Using the Monte Carlo method, the resultant model was used to
conduct a stochastic simulation of pollutant dispersion. This
stochastic simulation served as the basis for the risk assessment.
The quantification of risks associated with Pb in produced water
discharges was based on combined fuzzy/stochastic information.
This proposed approach was applied to an offshore oil produc-
tion facility located on the Grand Banks of Canada. Reasonable
results were generated, thereby demonstrating the utility of this
approach to support the effective management of produced water
discharges in the future.
The developed risk-assessment approach presented in this
paper is an extension of previous risk-assessment studies, and not
only reflects the uncertainties associated with the modeling system
but also those of regulatory criteria. The resultant proposed
approach provides a quantitative means for the examination of the
uncertainties and risks resulting from produced water discharges
on a regional spatial scale. With its expanded evaluation dimen-
sions, the proposed approach can be used as an effective risk-
assessment protocol for the management of produced water
discharges in the marine environment.
Acknowledgements
We would like to acknowledge the professional sample analysis
work by Prof. Renata Bailey at the University Regina and Ms. Susan
Cobanli from the Fisheries and Oceans Canada. This study was
funded in part by the Natural Science and Engineering Research
Council Canada (NSERC), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), and
the Program of Energy Research and Development (PERD).
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