ISGTI 2018

7-8April2018, IIT Delhi, India

Evaluation of flexible pavement distress using non-linear regression analysis

Pranav RT Peddinti
MunwarBasha B
SireeshSaride
Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad, Kandi, Sangareddy, Hyderabad, 502285.
E-mail : ce14resch11005@iith.ac.in; basha@iith.ac.in;sireesh@iith.ac.in

ABSTRACT: The current study aims at developing well-predicting regression equations for evaluating the fatigue and
rutting strains at critical locations within the flexible pavement layers. With an objective to develop unified regression
models, the practical on-field ranges for thickness and layer moduli of various pavement layers are used in the analysis.
These design input combinations are fed into a multilayer elastic analysis program using an automation technique to
reduce a lot of human effort and evaluation time. The output obtained from the program is used to develop equations for
fatigue and rutting strains by non-linear regression analysis. The outcomes of this study will aid the design engineers as
well as researchers in multiple ways. In addition to the advantages in pavement design, the automation procedure
combined with regression would also aid the researchers in simulation studies, reliability analysis etc.
Keywords:Flexible pavement, fatigue, rutting, regression.
1. Introduction of fatigue and rutting limiting constants until the distress
The design of flexible pavement requires evaluation of levels match with the in-situ distress levels of Minnesota.
multiple combinations of layers with different thicknesses Wu et al. (2011) presented a finite element model for rut
and material properties before finalizing a well prediction in cementitious base/sub-bases to improve the
performing and economical pavement section. Such an existing models. The models have been developed from
evaluation is tedious and time consuming in case of ABAQUS program using data obtained from six
multilayered systems in view of the high computational accelerated pavement test sections.
effort involved in the computation. The availability of
programs like KENPAVE, ILLIPAVE, IITPAVE etc., Hall et al. (2012) developed surrogate models for
reduce the human effort to certain extent. However, alligator cracking and rutting using central composite
repeated manual data entry of various combinations into response surface methodology. The equations are based
these programs is still time consuming and may lead to on the data obtained from 38 flexible pavement sections
erratic data entry. In this regard, a simplified solution for from Arkansas, USA and the variables include pavement
evaluating flexible pavements would be beneficial. geometry, material properties, climate, Asphalt binder
grade, traffic and annual temperature. However, climate,
Developing distress models has been proposed as a viable operational speed, binder and asphalt gradation showed
solution for this problem. These models reduce the run- nominal impact on the models.
time and aid in quick calculation of distress for a given
pavement geometry, climate and materials used. These Dilip et al. (2013) and Dilip and Babu (2013) developed
models serve as the basis for generating the performance fatigue and rutting models as functions of the geometrical
functions required for reliability based designs. Hence, it and material properties of the pavement using
is to be noted that the accuracy and applicability of these KENPAVE software. The linear response surface models
models is highly important for the success of design were developed for a given geometry of flexible
methods. It is necessary either to obtain sufficient field pavement considered in the studies.Bhattacharjee (2016)
data from various locations or to perform reasonable developed non-linear response surface models to develop
number of laboratory investigations for developing these limit state fatigue cracking models using central
models. Several researchers have developed distress composite design methodology. The variables used are
models to evaluate fatigue and rutting strains as discussed layer thicknesses, layer moduli, percentage air voids in
in the following section. However, research scope is still HMA and design traffic.
open for developing unified and well-predicting distress
models. Hence the current study focuses on developing Apart from these studies, several researchers studied the
unified regression models for predicting pavement rutting behavior of unbound granular materials (UGM)
distresses viz., fatigue and rutting. for use in pavement design procedures. Studies by Uzan
(1999), Challazon et al. (2006) and Chen et al. (2010) are
2. Background based on elastoplastic theory by considering the influence
Kim et al. (2000) proposed a non-linear rut prediction of stress level on rutting of UGMs. Other studies based
model by collecting data from 39 in-service pavements in on mechanistic-empirical models are presented by Gabr
Michigan, USA. The model is based on the in-situ and Cameron (2013) and Gu et al. (2016). These models
pavement geometry, layer moduli, climate and surface are based on laboratory repeated load tests which can be
deflection.Timm and Newcomb (2003) calibrated the calibrated and used for evaluation of flexible pavements.
existing distress models to suit the fatigue and rutting The above mentioned studies were performed on limited
levels in Minnesota, USA. The process involved iteration datasets confining to a specific geographical location or a
project. The necessity for globally acceptable and well
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predicting distress models for fatigue and rutting still
persists, paving a reasonable scope for the current study.
4. Methodology
4.1. Input Data Generation
Among the available pavement analysis programs,
KENPAVE program enables the user to feed the whole
input data in the form of a single .DAT file. In this
regard, the present study uses KENPAVE program for
evaluating the input combinations. To handle the huge
queue of input files, an algorithm was written in
MATLAB (2015) to generate the input files. The random
and deterministic variables used in the study are
mentioned in Table 1. A total of 161,051 files were
generated for the specified range of values. To develop a
regression model that can be accepted globally, the
commonly used practical range of random variables were
considered.
Table 1 Range of parameters considered in the study
Random variables
Variable Range
Surface layer thickness, h1 (cm) 4 – 15
Base layer thickness, h2 (cm) 20 – 80
Mr of surface layer, Mr1 (kPa) 2x106 - 5x106
Mr of base layer,Mr2 (kPa) 1x105 - 6x105
Mr of subgrade layer, Mr3 (kPa) 1x104 – 1x105
Poisson’s ratio of surface layer, 1 0.30
Poisson’s ratio of base layer,2 0.35
Poisson’s ratio of subgrade, 3 0.40
An image identification technique was used to automate
the process and reduce the time of evaluation. The
program called Sikuli developed by Yehet al.(2009),
which runs on java or python script was used for this
purpose. The resulting output files were processed
through a MATLAB algorithm to store the required
fatigue values from the .TXT files into easily workable
data sheets. The obtained data was used for further
regression and reliability analysis.
4.2. Regression Analysis
Regression analysis is performed to develop an equation
for fatigue strain in terms of layer thickness and layer
moduli. An initial first order linear regression analysis
yielded a poor fit with a coefficient of determination(R2)
of 0.5. The reason for poor regression coefficient may be
attributed to the inclusion of non-contributing terms and
insufficiency of linear terms to explain the data trend. In
order to identify the level of influence of random
variables, sensitivity analysis was performed using
MINITAB (2000) statistical software as shown in Fig. 1.
The sensitivity plots were drawn between the mean of the
response variable and means of individual variables.
They consider the variability of each individual variable
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over their range and then assess the influence of that
parameter keeping the others at a constant value.
As the fatigue is measured at the bottom of
surface layer, it is mechanistically reasonable that the
impact of resilient modulus of the subgrade layer (Mr3), is
minimum, which can be understood from its near
horizontal trend in Fig. 1. On the other hand, resilient
modulus of base layer (Mr2) and height of the surface
layer (h1) show a notable influence on the fatigue strain.
Linear regression was performed without considering the
minimum influencing parameters. However, removing
the minimum influencing inputs did not improve
theregression coefficient. The prediction of data as
compared to KENPAVE was found unsatisfactory.
Hence, it can be summarized that linear regression could
not completely accommodate the variation in the fatigue
strain.
1(a)
1(b)
Fig.1 Sensitivity of design variables forfatigue strain
4.2.1. Non-linear regression analysis
To improve the accuracy of regression, nonlinear models
have to be adopted by addition of higher order terms. As
the number of random variables are five (Table 1), there
will be several higher order combinations such as h1h2,
h1Mr1Mr2, Mr1Mr2 2etc. In order to investigate the
influence of each input combination, interaction plots
presented in Fig. 2 are helpful. The interaction plots
verify the suitability of a particular mathematical
combination of the variables for inclusion in the
regression. For the present problem, fatigue strains are
evaluated at selected fixed values of input parameters
considered for suitability in the model. The second order
products were verified for their suitable inclusion in the
fatigue model as shown in Figure 2. Single / multiple
intersections or complete overlap between the lines
denote the considerable contribution of that particular
term to the regression model. Non-intersecting nature of
the lines as shown in Fig. 2 denote that the respective
term does not contribute to the model (as highlighted in
grey background in Fig.2(b)). The term h2Mr2 can be
Evaluation of flexible Pavement distress using non-linear regression analysis
opted out of regression considerations. The sensitivity
analysis presented in Fig. 1 is helpful to add the nonlinear
terms to the model. The similar procedure can be
repeated to verify the influence of higher order terms.
The regression analysis was further performed on the
finalized terms. Addition of third order terms was found
inevitable to obtain a reasonable fit. The final regression
equation to predict fatigue strain is presented in Equation
1. The R2 and R2adj values were found to be 0.9621 and
0.9620 respectively.R2adjis a more authentic measure of
goodness ofregression fit. Unlike R2, R2adj value increases
only if the regression model contains suitable terms. The
higher and nearly close values of R2 and R2adj depict a
well-built regression model.
2(a)
2(b)
2(c)
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Fig.2 Interaction plots to verify second order terms in the
regression model
 7.075105h14.471109 Mr2 
 
 1.3681010 Mr3 3.303108h1h2 
 10 6 2 
 1.69910 h1Mr2 9.32610 h1

εt   6.76510 Mr2  1.85010 h1Mr3 
 15 2 11
 5.3731012h1Mr12.794107h13 
 
3.3351021Mr2 3 2.0451016h1Mr2 2 
 
 9.4231018h1Mr1Mr2 7.695104 
(1)
4.3. Validation of fatigue regression equation
Though the R2 and R2adj values are higher, there is always
a chance for the equations to have higher curvature
within the range of inputs which may result in overfitting
models. To verify the same, fatigue strains obtained from
the regression analysis are validated by comparing the
same with KENPAVE program. About 10,000 input-
output combinations for the range of parameters
mentioned in Table 1 are used to validate the regression
equation. The results as shown in Fig.3(a) are in good
agreement with the KENPAVE results. In addition, the
present results are also validated with those obtained
from the linear regression equation developed using
KENPAVE by Dilip et al.(2013) as shown in Fig. 3(b). It
was observed that inclusion of higher order non-linear
terms and considering the practical range for the random
variables (Table 1) yielded a superior fatigue model
which has predicted the strains with high accuracy.
Hence, the nonlinear regression equation for predicting
the fatigue strain (t) proposed in this study is valid
across the practical range of values of inputs considered.
3(a)
  0.1461h1 0.06332h2 
 
    (2)
 5.54110 Mr1 1.68810 Mr2
8 6 
 
ε 
z 
 1.685105M +2.255104h 2
r3 2


 2


+ 1.53210 h M +4.39910
8
2 r2
 11
 
Mr2 

+ 1.180103h 2+ 1.287103h h 3.225
 1 12 
The validation with KENPAVE and Dilip et al.(2013)are
presented in Figure 5.As observed from Fig. 5(a), the
rutting strains are well predicted by the proposed
regression model.

3(b)
Fig.3 Validation chartsfor fatigue regression model

5. Regression analysis for rutting strain

Similar analysis was performed to evaluate the rutting
strains at the top of subgrade layer. The initial linear
regression analysis resulted in a low R2value of 0.68. Hence,
sensitivity analysis and interaction plotsarestudied for the
prediction of rutting strain as well. The sensitivity curves
corresponding to rutting are presented in Fig. 4. It can be
observed that the rutting strain is influenced by all the design
inputs. This is due to the fact that, rutting is a result of
accumulated vertical strains in all the pavement layers above
subgrade. Hence, all design parameters show a significant
influence on the rutting. The non-linear regression equation
5(a)
obtained for rutting(z) is shown in Equation 2.The R2 and
R2adj values are found to be 0.9712 and 0.9711 respectively
for rutting.

4(a)

5(b)
Fig. 5 Validation charts for rutting regression model
6. Discussion
 Non-linear regression equations are developed for
fatigue and rutting strains based on their sensitivity to
practical geometrical and resilient modulus properties
of three layered flexible pavement systems.
4(b)  The performance of these models was found to closely
Fig.4 Sensitivity of design variables for rutting strain match with the results obtained from KENPAVE
software.
 From the sensitivity analysis, fatigue was found to be
predominantly influenced by the magnitude and
variability of h1 and Mr2. On the other hand, rutting was
considerably influenced by all the variables.
 Interaction plots gives the user, an insight into the role
of higher order terms to be used in the model. Proper

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Evaluation of flexible Pavement distress using non-linear regression analysis

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